David S. Poepoe
|Posted on Wednesday, December 19, 2001 - 08:02 am: ||
Wait a minute. Half of what your suggesting doesn't make sense.
The Japanese can't directly move against the Russians during the October Revolution (1917-1918) since they are allies. I think your implying that portions of Russian Manchuria would be occupied by the Japanese in the same spirit that Vladivostock was occupied by Japanese and American troops. The Japanese can't really be expected to have any permenant hold on this territory for the Americans would probably put pressure on them to eventually leave.
Russian possessions in the Far East, those other than Siberia, the port of Vladivostock and south of the Amur will be the haven for the White Russians I would think. A Russian government in exile ruling a majority Chinese state supported by a Czech army! How more international can you get.
Now the White Russians may seek an alliance with Japan, which would give Japan access to alot of European technology, and the White Russians will probably be recognized by the Allied Powers as the de facto government of Russia, completely refusing to recognize the Communist.
Once Japan joins the Axis Powers in the 1930s, however, things will be getting tight for the Whites in Mukden (a city randomly chosen as their capital), they will be dependent on Allied support and Japan will be pressuring them. I could see the Americans giving the Whites alot of aid as a means to offset Japan.
Somewhere someone mentioned a POD where Stalin sends additional troops out to the Far East in order defend against a Japanese attack. Perhaps a similar situation would realistically happen here. Stalin strengthens his Far Eastern Army Corps, against the Whites (who don't intend to do anything) and the Soviets are easily defeated when the Wehrmacht invades in 1941. The Whites, and probably the Tsar in exile, are invited to take power again by the Nazis, however, while the Whites would like to do that they are pro-Allied and neutral.
The White Army by its neutrality could keep a portion of the Japanese Army in China pinned down. I suspect that Doolittle's Raiders will crash in White Manchuria and the Japanese will be very angered when they aren't turned over. Much like the Soviets in OTL I don't think they will enter the Pacific War until the last final months.
Since I suppose that the Germans would do better in invading Russia than in OTL and perhaps actually seize Moscow, I tend to think that Stalin would have been toppled from power by mid-1942. Either Marshal Zhukov or Molotov will eventually come out on top of a Soviet Government on the Run, but the vaccuum formed by the withdraw of the German Army following its surrender will probably cause some sort of power struggle, especially if Beria is still around and Red Russia will slide into Civil War. This new Civil War gives the Whites the oppurtunity, and with American military aid, to occupy Eastern Siberia and Vladivostock.
By 1950 there are two Russias. Communist Russia to the West of the Urals and White Russia to the East. The eventual collapse of Communism is probably much earlier since the Communist would basically not have access to their trans-Uralian factories and most of their territory has been completely warravaged.
What would be interesting would be the Japanese invasion of White Russia and Hitler taking up the cause of protecting the West from the New Yellow Peril - tho that probably won't happen.
|Posted on Wednesday, December 19, 2001 - 06:13 am: ||
If the Russians Had of won the war of 1905 well Japan would have taken back what they lost in the period of caos of the October Revelution which was coming the war just sped things up a bit The Russian People were becoming restless and a differnt form of govt ws coming. The Russians if they had gone communist would not have concentrated on tanks so much because they would not have the incentive to. Japan would have learned the lessons and actually would have developed a decent tank force to take other stuff. The japanese would also have Joined The Axis forces for the reason most of the countries did they wanted to revise the borders with some german technical support they would have had some interesting weaponry the Germans would have had some decent carrier designs and They would have had a harder code than enigma and the japanese would have known their codes were broken they would have got some of each others tech and the japanese would have supported anti colonial forces in asia.
|Posted on Sunday, November 11, 2001 - 03:46 pm: ||
Thanks. No, I didn't post here, but at soc.history.what-if, the major AH discussion group on the web. There was little response, so when I saw your post, I dug up this post and posted it here, especially since we both drew from the same source, Eggerton.
As for the Baltic Fleet, it probably would not have been terribly influential in the war. If it had gone up against the Germans, my feeling it that it would have been crushed.
|Posted on Sunday, November 11, 2001 - 12:38 pm: ||
Those are excellent points there Joe. I must say I never though of those.
And to add to them WWI would also be affected since the Russians would have a Baltic fleet to use against the Germans.
So you posted this at this discussion board awhile back? When?
|Posted on Saturday, November 10, 2001 - 09:52 pm: ||
I've also read "Warriors of the Rising Sun". I posted this to soc.history.what-if awhile back, but suprise suprise, there wasn't much discussion-
What if, instead of sending their Baltic Fleet on an insanely stupid voyage to fight the Japanese in 1904, the Russian leaders had recognized that they had little chance of winning an naval battle, and should concentrate on the
land war. Although the Russians had suffered badly during the earlier campaigns, by this stage they were receiving a good deal of reinforcements, including some elite units. The Japanese, on the other hand, were on their last strings, financially and in terms of manpower. They were looking for an opportunity to end the war in which, in the words of Robert Eggerton in "Warriors of the Rising Sun", "[they] no longer had the power to defeat the
Russian army". The battle (massacre might be a better term) at Tsushima provided the final incentive for Nicholas, who had been hesitant to negotiate even after earlier defeats, to accept American mediation. Without
the battle, it's entirety possible that the Tsar would have chosen to continue the war. Within a few months, the situation in Manchuria would have been entirely different, with new Russian reinforcements providing replacements that the Japanese couldn't match. If the Russian's couldn't
beat the Japanese decisively, they could at least hold them off for long enough to bring them to the negotiating table under much less favorable conditions than in OTL. The domestic situation in Russia might get worse than OTL, but with one or two victories (or at least draws reported as
such), the situation will improve. The Japanese will probably have to negotiate eventually, but their position will be much worse. I can't see them coming out of this situation with any part of Manchuria. I see three
big results. First, in OTL, after the treaty of Portsmith, in which the Japanese had to make significant concessions to the Russians, rioting in Tokyo caused hundreds of deaths and resulted in marshal law. In the ATL,
the situation could come close to a revolution. This would probably cause radicals in the military to become more aggressive. As a result, we might see the events of the 30's happening in the 10's and 20's. In Russia, meanwhile, the 'victory' may negate the need for the October Manifesto.
Still, the revolution of 1905 would have had many of the same effects as OTL. However, without a total defeat in the east, the Russians may not have been so inclined to turn to the Balkans, as in OTL. The resulting effects
on WWI can be easily imagined. Finally, without such an impressive Japanese victory, the war might not inspire nationalist movements in the colonial world, as it did in OTL. These movements may eventually be set back years.
|Posted on Thursday, November 08, 2001 - 11:57 am: ||
Go ahead David, let's see what you got.
David S Poepoe
|Posted on Tuesday, November 06, 2001 - 10:34 pm: ||
Well, if you insist I could slap together a basic TL of an alternate Russo-Japanese War.
David S. Poepoe
|Posted on Tuesday, November 06, 2001 - 01:56 pm: ||
David, this should be an interesting one. Never asked myself this question before.
Well first of all if Russia wins this would just reinforce the Europeans feelings of superiorty to the rest of the world as in OTL when Japan (an Asian power) won against Russia (a European power) this shocked most of Europe and forced them to think differently of their place in the world.
Now if Russia wins (you wouldn't mind putting out a Timeline of the alternate course of the war would you?) then Russia will most likely gain all the Kurile Islands and keep all of Sakhalin Island. Russia would probably also keep Port Arthur and be granted dominion over or rights in Manchuria and most likely Korea. One iffy possibilty is that Russia may try to establish an overlordship over Japan herself.
In 1914 the mineral wealth probably could have helped Russia somewhat. To what exact extent I don't know as yet. I am not sure whether Japan would join the Allies or Central Powers as Japan may look towards Germany's less than easily defended colonies in Asia with some hunger in the eye. Or it may look towards bringing revenge on Russia. But seeing as how Japan and Russia fought each other in 1905 (with Japan winning) and still managed to find themselves on the same side in 1914 then I wouldn't rule out the possibility of that happening here. Also Japan may be "persuaded" by the 1905 defeat to look towards Central China for colonies instead of northern China.
David S. Poepoe
|Posted on Tuesday, November 06, 2001 - 08:22 am: ||
Having just finished reading Robert Edgerton's "Warriors of the Rising Sun" I am wondering what would have happened if Russia had won the Russo-Japanese War. Here are some points of departure that think are entertaining.
1. Rear-Admiral Rozhestvensky is sent to Port Arthur rather than Vice-Admiral Makarov. Makarov is placed in command of the Second Pacific Squadron which travels around the world to the Far East.
2. The mine that detonated and destroyed Makarov's flagship is a dud.
3. A Japanese artillery shell kills General Stossel, over all commander of Port Arthur who secretly negotiated its surrender when he had all the supplies necessary to withhold a siege.
4. The First Pacific Squadron successfully escapes from Port Arthur and makes it to Vladivostock.
I had never read much of the history of the Russo-Japanese War beyond the Battle of Tsushima till I read this book. While the Russians were defeated at Mukden they could still continue the war and were receiving troops from Europe, while the Japanese were running out of reserves and finances.
Would the Far East be any different if Russia had won? I doubt the Revolution of 1905 could have been avoided, but would the mineral wealth of Manchuria and Korea helped Russia at all nine years later?
David S. Poepoe