Writer's Forum - The Great Winter

Hello everyone,

I have been reading stuff for a long time, but I have only just summoned up the courage to register and post something. however, it really belonged on the Writer's Forum, I think, so that is where I posted it. I'll repost it here, so everyone can see what I put there.

A BRIEF POST-CATASTROPHE HISTORY

Part One: The Great Winter

September 9th, 1910. King George V ruled over the largest Empire the world had ever seen. All was calm in Britain as its people enjoyed the last day of a golden age of wonders. World events - even the Japanese invasion of Korea only two weeks previously - were currently overshadowed by Halley’s Comet as it headed away from the sun to beyond the furthest planets on a course which would bring it so close to Earth that the planet would pass through its tail. The popular press had speculated, sometimes wildly, on the effects this would have: the reporting that cyanide had been detected as present in the gases streaming from the comet had led to the large-scale buying of gas-masks and a racy short story by Sir Arthur Conan Doyle being published in that month’s Strand Magazine had done nothing to alleviate public disquiet. The Astronomer Royal had been moved to write an article in the Times on the subject; it had been published on September 3rd.

“The tail of a comet - even one so magnificent as this - contains no more particles of matter than would fit into a railway truck,” ran part of the article. “The toxic substances, which I understand have been the cause of some alarm and despondency, would not fill even a small packing-case. It is without doubt that this superb natural phenomenon poses no threat to Mankind whatsoever. Mediaeval peasants may have trembled at comets and believed that they heralded disaster; we have the knowledge that Science brings us that this is not so, and, above all, we are Englishmen. Enough talk of doom; let us marvel at this wondrous sight that Providence has so richly bestowed upon us and let others tremble in their superstitions.”

Those who exercised their memories better than most might have recalled that the death of Edward VII just over six months previously had coincided to the day with the first naked-eye sighting of Halley’s Comet as it plied its 76-year course around the sun. However, this was the Age of Science and even the imaginative Mr. Wells would not have dreamed of what would happen that night (though the French visionary Jules Verne might have come close). The last observations from Greenwich Observatory, as the sun set in a dazzling pattern of swirling gases overhead which glowed long after full darkness, was that the head of the comet had been sighted and might pass even closer to the Earth than the Moon.

At 2:15 am on September 10th, England was shaken by an earthquake. Steeple bells rang in a cacophonic peal, masonry cracked, and some less well-built houses collapsed. Nearly all the populations were awake at dawn, therefore, to see the last sunrise for nearly eight years, pursued and overtaken by clouds of such blackness and speed as had never been seen before. These were the harbingers of rain - salt rain - as though the sea had been flung into the sky.

It had. The head of the comet had come within three hundred miles of the Earth’s surface and had broken up under the gravitational stress inflicted on it. As it flew apart, several large fragments hit the Earth’s surface in a pattern that covered most of the equatorial Pacific Ocean. Waves approaching three thousand feet in height struck Africa and India; in the latter country they were stopped only by the foothills of the Himalayas. As they retreated, the Ganges became literally choked with the bodies of animals and humans: it is estimated that over 175 million people perished in that first flooding. The Far East countries and Australia were inundated and the coast of Japan took on a new outline. The other large land strike was on the western coast of North America: this triggered the San Andreas Fault and almost half of California disappeared beneath the ocean never to reappear, save for an archipelago of small islands.

As the remains of the comet, now sundered beyond all hope of re-forming, disappeared out of the Solar System, they left behind an Earth that rivalled Venus for brightness. Clouds covered the entire surface; rainfall was measured in feet rather than inches. At the poles it fell as snow, and the glaciers began their southward march again.

The Great Winter of 1911-1919 was a time of terror for most people in England. Even in mid-summer, the clouds only became marginally brighter; water froze from August to April and the green and pleasant land became a wilderness of ice broken only by isolated communities. Southampton was the only ice-free port, kept open by a continual patrol of icebreakers, and the lifeline of the country, as the mother country systematically exploited the resources of what remained of the Empire to keep its people alive. Even so, the population was literally decimated in three years and by the end of the Great Winter had been reduced by a third.

Turmoil reigned in Europe as well. Only France, Spain, Portugal and Italy had open ports, and the price that countries such as Germany, Holland and the Scandinavian countries had to pay for foodstuffs had long-term, far-reaching consequences. The Austro-Hungarian Empire looted the Balkans in order to keep itself alive, and the Ottoman Empire found itself in the enviable position of making money and forcing political advantages out of the situation. Italy, only united since 1870, broke up under the pressure of civil unrest. Only in 1919, under the “moral guidance” of the Papacy, was it able to make a significant recovery.

In Russia, the Bolshevik revolution of October 1917 reduced the country to such a state of anarchy that if anyone could have invaded it, it would have been an easy conquest. The Russian Imperial family were almost completely exterminated by their Bolshevik captors; in turn, the Bolshevik leadership were wiped out by a frenzied revenge attack. Only by 1920 was anything resembling central government in control of what remained of the Russian Empire.

Almost nothing is known of what happened in China and Japan following the Catastrophe. The American presence in the Far East disappeared in a wall of water, and with it a good deal of that country’s sources of food and raw materials. Over the next ten years, the Americans infiltrated, invaded and bought every country they could in Central America, and by 1922 the United States included Mexico, Cuba, Guatemala, Honduras, Nicaragua, Puerto Rico, Costa Rica, Panama, Venezuela, Colombia and Ecuador.

The return of sunlight to the Earth brought a temporary lull to this mad whirl of conquest, like a group of schoolchildren in the middle of a dormitory fight freezing when the headmaster turned on the light. The world paused, and took stock of what had happened. It was, however, only a brief lull….


I actually wrote it about 15 years ago. The POD is that Halley's Comet strikes the earth in 1910; as a result, there is a 'nuclear winter' from 1911 to 1919. I need help with what happens afterwards, given the fates of the European Great Powers (and the USA, China and Japan). I had some pretty firm ideas in my head about what I wanted to have happen, but as time went on I became more and more unsure about whether the consequences I envisaged would actually be probable, or even possible.

So I am actually looking for feedback (constructive, hopefully) and thoughts on who would emerge as the major players after the Great Winter; where any potential flashpoints would be; and the future of the Great Powers.

Thanks a lot

Mark
 
Hmmm...possible results:

The Ottoman Empire is MUCH more powerful than in OTL. The Capitulations are gone, I assume, as well as foreign "supervision" (the pretext being the protection of Christians). Plus there's lots of income from exporting food; that means a more prosperous agricultural sector and capital for industry.

Italy looks like it'll be a Catholic theocracy of some sort.

The US, though western California has either been drowned or reduced to a series of islands, has a "new frontier" in the Caribbean and Central America to play with. Hopefully the people already there will be treated better; there are too many of them to ethnically-cleanse a la the Indians and nobody's going to be enslaving anyone this late. Indeed, some idealist types might try to turn the region into a testing ground for various reforms (public schools, eliminating peonage, etc).

Australia is fairly upraised above the ocean; though I imagine there'll be a lot of damage to the coasts, I don't think the entire continent will be flooded.

I imagine if you wanted to have a war, it'd be in Russia. Russia is pretty much devastated and anyone who wants a piece could probably grab some. There is a central gov't; however, is it strong enough to put down uprisings by the subject peoples (Poles, Ukrainians, Finns, Central Asians, etc) or fend off would-be empire-builders (Sweden, seeking to make up for the trade deficits brought on by food imports, decides to return to the Baltic coast and Finland).
 
Some randon thoughts;

Australia as a whole will escape flooding, but the coasts will be hit hard, and that's where the people lived, the interior was, and is, largely uninhabited desert.

The casualty figure from the initial flooding is excessive, the total population of Inida was only about 300 million, those along the Ganges would be screwed, but the country as a whole would have to be underwater for this kind of death toll, and I don't see that the tsunami would be that severe.

The Ottoman Empire is more likely to be attacked for its farmlands than to benefit from this catastrophe.

What will there be in the Balkans for Austria-Hungary to plunder? probably nothing that can justify the cost of seizing it, the Empire collapses within a year or two.

An important point is that, with the exception of Japan, no military power is going to be immediately crippled, they'll all still have massive military forces in place whilst they watch their economies collapse and their people starve. Desperate people do crazy things and a chaotic "world war" could easily break out in 1910 as the powers fight for remaining viable agricultural land.
 
In India, the largely Muslim Indus valley and what is now Bangladesh would suffer more than hilly Hindu areas. That would change the balance of religious power in India.

Almost nothing is known of what happened in China and Japan following the Catastrophe. The American presence in the Far East disappeared in a wall of water, and with it a good deal of that country’s sources of food and raw materials.

What is "that country"? Repeat the name and be clear and never mind school lessons about best essay style.
 

Grey Wolf

Donor
Anthony Appleyard said:
What is "that country"? Repeat the name and be clear and never mind school lessons about best essay style.

Why do you make this demand ? Whats wrong with the narrative style ? Or were you just in a bad mood ?

Grey Wolf
 
Matthew Craw said:
Some randon thoughts;
The Ottoman Empire is more likely to be attacked for its farmlands than to benefit from this catastrophe.

How? And by whom? Repelling attacks to acquire farmlands is easy, just burn the fields or threaten to.

Russia is in no state to attack, so the worst thing that could happen is there would be big problems in the remaining Balkan territories. The Ottomans are quite safe. However, the collapse the international economic order will not be a good thing for the OE, although the end of the Capitulations would be good and they would probably just say "Debt? What debt?"
 
Abdul Hadi Pasha said:
How? And by whom? Repelling attacks to acquire farmlands is easy, just burn the fields or threaten to.

Russia is in no state to attack, so the worst thing that could happen is there would be big problems in the remaining Balkan territories. The Ottomans are quite safe. However, the collapse the international economic order will not be a good thing for the OE, although the end of the Capitulations would be good and they would probably just say "Debt? What debt?"

Nobody will be immediately weaker than in OTL, Russia will have a good few months to attack before things start to fall apart completely, so would the Balkan states, so would Italy, so would britain and so would France.

I'd be surprised if they managed to actually succeed before their military capcity began to drain away, but the future for the Ottomans in this ATL isn't COMPLETELY bright.
 
I had seen the OE as the main flashpoint in Europe - but as I don't know very much about their strength in this period, I am unsure as to whether they would be able to become a proper Great Power again, or whether they were on an inevitable downward spiral.

I had also wondered about GB, and whether a large segment of the population would end up scattered around the Empire, if for no other reason than survival. Could this subsequently lead to a change in Imperial policy, so that a subject of the Empire would be the same no matter where they lived. Would that lead to a more federated Empire, with Britain as an entity being less important as the epicentre of the Empire?

The US is now unchallenged in their own hempisphere, but would they be concentrating too much on Central and South America to worry about their Far Eastern concerns? China and Japan - and South East Asia generally - I am pretty shaky on generally.

When I originally wrote it, I had Germany mounting an invasion of France in 1916, as a desperation measure to reach ports where they could get food and supplies for their population. They ended up failing in that enterprise, and the starving soldiers were taken in by the French, leading to the phrases "French charity" and "a true Frenchman" passing into popular usage. Does that seem credible?

The final point of interest was Italy. I quite fancied having a renewed Papal State. Where to take it from here? Given the survival of the Ottoman Empire, could Palestine become a point of contention with both Italy and the Austro-Hungarian Empire?
 

Admiral Matt

Gone Fishin'
I like it. That said, I take issue with a couple things. Most of them could be solved by simply making the impact smaller, so despair not.

There's not enough mass famine. The big issue isn’t the access to southern ports – the seas aren’t going to freeze over completely (maybe the Baltic). The real trouble is the sheer lack of food. Grain production will collapse, and even in the tropics there will not be enough food to go around. And that is before the millions of starving white refugees arrive.

Speaking of which, if the German invasion of France fails the captured soldiers aren’t going to be fed. By 1916 they’ll be lucky if they aren’t eaten.

You also mention that a third of Britain’s population survives, which is a huge stretch. There probably wouldn’t be enough food in the Empire after the first few years. I’d be surprised if you could save more than a tenth of the population on the home islands. Of course, not feeding the Irish would help quite a bit. :(

All of the above could be fixed by simply reducing the size of the impact and the period of nuclear winter. Even then Irish are screwed. But that’s really to be expected, lol.

Moving everyone to other parts of the Empire is a good idea, too. I like the federal empire bit. I expect race-relations will be dragged backwards, though.

I’m not sure about the Bolsheviks showing up. If I were Lenin, I sure wouldn’t want to leave Switzerland for St Petersburg! Still, it’s possible. Go nuts.

I don't think India would be hit nearly as hard as you suggest - considering everything is dropping in the Pacific. There's no way the waves could make it past Indonesia, SE Asia, and Australia with such force. I mean, short of an impact that would simply wipe out all surface life. I recommend adding an impact in the Indian Ocean if you want to keep this.

California isn’t really going to “drop-off.” That’s not how it works. The low parts might get lower – possibly extending San Francisco Bay a little to the north and south. You might even have the Central Valley and/or Salton Sea flood, but that’s probably the most you can do. That alone would make a very weird map: the Gulf of California would extend north to a point not far from the southern end of the new American Sea (it would have a lot in common with the Black Sea, aside from climate). This ‘American Sea’ would be bounded in the west by two rocky peninsulas – nearly meeting where San Francisco used to be.

FYI – Glaciers take literally centuries to advance a matter of feet. There’s not going to be any noticeable advance, maybe a temporary cessation of melting though.

The American advance south is a cool idea, though Columbia and Ecuador seem a bit excessive. As to what Matt Quinn said: There are never too many people to cleanse; not when they’re eating the food your kids need to live. Not that they’d all be killed, but anyone who tries to keep much of their food from the gringos, sure. And when there’s any doubt who exactly is holding back just wipe out the nearest village. After all you have plenty of (white) people who’d love to run their farms. It’s ugly, but that’s how it would go.

Again though, this is all contingent on the size of the impact. If the winter is shorter than that proposed originally, the Americans might very well be somewhat nice about it. Although becoming a second-class citizen in your own country doesn’t strike me as terribly nice. Maybe humane is the word I’m looking for. :)

Keep up the good work.

ps- Papal Italy is great.
 
maps

You need to get a good topigraphical Map, decide how many hits and where. how high your wave will be and plot out, the results.

Most pacific islands will be wiped clean, OTOH this is then free farm land. A New Zealand type settlement of a empty Figi or Tiahiti, or Given a empty coast of Borneo or Sumatra You may have mass movement of Dutch & Germans There. A Modern Borneo [accully bigger than GB] as a Great Power.

Given that the US has just lost San Francisco, Portland, & Seattle, Plus the Great Plains arn't the Bread basket of OTL, Im not sure they would be as expansive as You assume, Cuba was under populated, and most of the land was Plantations for the wealthy, a US annexxation and land to Farmers from frozen New England, and Michigan- Ditto for Porto Rico, and Pamama. But by 1910 the US didn't really want to Annex Mexico, or SA..

You have wiped out the South american coastal population, a Argentine {major regional power, on the brink of first world status} relief force to Chile, that just never leaves, Argent-hile, as one of the great powers.



Most japanese live on the coastal plains because the mountian are so high. OTOH this means that the asian coast will be protected.
if one of your waves hit across the Kuril islands into the Sea of Okhots Wiping out the Pacific end of the Trans Siberia RR. and enuff of Japans Forces are safe inside the Sea of Japan, You can end with Japan- with Korea, and the Amur territory, a unified Sea of Japan Great Power. maybe controlling the Phillipines.

In 1910 the Ukraine was the Bread basket of Europe, as it starts geting colder in the north Russia would move its troops South to insure Ukraineian stability. as the Baltic and White Seas start freezing, Russia moves it fleets to the Black Sea, Turkey objects , A all out, Go for Broke, fight for controll of the Black Sea, With Europe too absorbed with it's own problems to interfere this time.
 
Thanks for the input - does anyone know of a site that would help me out with the look of the American continent, with the destruction of California? I had thought of Hollywood developing in Nevada.....Las Vegas as the movie capital of the world? :)

The other major change would be in demographics. Europe lost a generation in World War One - young men who may have made radical changes to the world we know. One example I read about was a British physicist, who had done stuff on the periodic table, amongst other things - he was killed on the Western Front. In this timeline there are possibly more casualties, but they would be the old, the infirm, who succumb to the lack of food and the extreme conditions.

I had intended to try to write stuff set in the early thirties. Would there necessarily be a big war? Some historians believe that if WW1 had not taken place, something would have happened in the 20s or 30s anyway - they argue that the nations of Europe would have pushed each other until someone tried to settle it once and for all. Perhaps a situation might develop similar to the Cold War in the fifties and early sixties, but with up to a half-dozen major players (especially if you include the US and possibly a nation from the Pacific).

I also had the idea of the Papacy needing a foreign intelligence and counterintelligence service to advance its agenda at home and abroad - maybe a reconstituted Knights Templar? ;)
 
For the year 1910, you should add the sudden rise of the Jehovah's Witnesses movement, when their prediction of cometary apocalypse. This could mean the rise of a fundamentalist Christian state in the United States. Another thing to consider is the rise of the occult in the post WWI era. You could have in 1917, Ernest and Fenwicke Holmes of Los Angeles, California form the cult of "Religious Science". By 1923, you can have English spiritualist Alice Bailey, form the "Arcane School", with the rise of J. Krishnamutri, as a "would-be Messiah". Apparently a cult formed throughout the 1920s around J. Krishnamutri in India, until he renounced his divinity in 1929. By 1959, you can have Maharishi Mahesh Yogi lead the "Spiritual Regeneration Movement" in India, calling, with all of its terrible possibilities.

As for San Francisco, it is highly unlikely that the city would be abandoned for long. The city was already under reconstrruction after ther 1906 Earthquake and Fire and military garrisons were being stationed at Fort Ord and the Presidio to maintain order. The reconstruction of San Francisco would be part of any effort for the United States to re-establish a military presence in the Pacific Rim. The the Pan-Pacific Columbia Exposition of 1916, 1922, or even 1939 would be used to demonstrate America's return to the Pacific.
 
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