No Pearl Harbor
- Thread starter tom
- Start date
The sanctions opposed by FDR pushed them into the "use it or lose it" scenario vis a vis their military machine...would they withdraw from China and Manchuria as he demanded (unlikely) or strike south anyway? If so, would they avoid the Phillippines or attack them, hoping to lure the US forces into the Western Pacific for an atrocious defeat (US planning for such a scenario envisioned an old-line battleship fight, which was obsolete in an age of carriers)?
Attacking the Phillippines, a distant pseudo-colony destined for independence in a couple of years, would outrage the US public MUCH less than Pearl Harbor, which means that a domestic anti-war movement would probably survive (unlike Pearl Harbor...the America First Committee dissolved within days). That could affect the way the war was fought.
Attacking the Phillippines, a distant pseudo-colony destined for independence in a couple of years, would outrage the US public MUCH less than Pearl Harbor, which means that a domestic anti-war movement would probably survive (unlike Pearl Harbor...the America First Committee dissolved within days). That could affect the way the war was fought.
This same scenario was in the "What Ifs of American History" book. The author thought that we'd still get involved later on. His scenario was that Japan would carefully avoid targeting American targets, concentrating on British, Dutch, and French possessions (would this give them the oil they need?). The US gets involved by sending supplies to various opponents of the Japanese, and some supply ships get attacked by Japanese planes. The US gets involved, although less enthusiastically (albeit there is not much resistance to the war), Germany still declares war on the US and vice versa, and the war comes to an end in '46, IIRC...
Matt Quinn said:
This is an interesting scenario in itself. MacArthur's whole withdrawal to Bataan & Corregidor was planned in the hopes that the US Fleet would steam to the rescue with reinforcements. So...do we have the decisive battle between the Imperial Japanese Navy & the US Navy on our hands in that one? What if the US Navy gets through and lands reinforcements? Can MacArthur and the Filipinos repel the Japanese from Luzon?
I just went and looked up this scenario in the book. Actually, it doesn't say what year the war ended, but it seems to be '45, same as OTL. Again, as in OTL, the US used two nukes and the Japanese surrendered....
I'm having a hard time seeing the US get invoved in a shooting war with the Japanese without Pearl (or an invasion of the Phillippines). The Japanese wanted oil, and that was in the Dutch East Indies and apparently somewhere along the Chino-Burmese border (Yenangyuang), so there was no obvious reason for the attack on Pearl (except fear and the strike first mentality).
Without active American participation would the British, Dutch and Commewealth navies have had a chance against the Japanese? I find it somewhat difficult to believe they could have withstood a Japanese onslaught in ´41...
Best regards!
- Bluenote.
Without active American participation would the British, Dutch and Commewealth navies have had a chance against the Japanese? I find it somewhat difficult to believe they could have withstood a Japanese onslaught in ´41...
Best regards!
- Bluenote.