Explain This World

[Diamond]

All you know about the world pictured below is the following:

• There are 3 superpowers: Tenochca, Muscovy, and Nihon
• There are 3 'second world' powers: Iriki, the Inka, and the Ottomans
• Nearly all nations have a strict caste system
• The 3 major religions are: Shintoism, Orthodox Christianity, and Quetzalism
• Scots and Portugese are regarded as 'Great Traitors' by the rest of Europe
• Native American population was approximately 35% less than OTL when Europeans first landed
• Most of Europe exists in a state of abject poverty, while China and India have soft, rich, almost decadent cultures

What do you think the POD is? Any idea of how subsequent events could've played out?

[Paul Spring]

OK, I made a long entry that just disappeared, so you're gonna get the abbreviated version -

- about 2000 years ago, a really nasty disease jumps from monkeys to people in Central America. Think smallpox, but worse.

- Native American populations in much of the Americas are devastated, but gradually develop immunity and recover

- European explorers unwittingly bring this disease back to Europe with them. In a stroke of incredibly bad luck, most people in Europe have a certain kind of protein that is rare in other peoples and that makes one especially vulnerable to this new disease. Europe is devastated by this plague, worse than the "Black Death", and falls into a chaos of war, messianic religious movements, revolts, etc. The disease spreads to parts of Asia and Africa, killing many, but not nearly as bad as in Europe.

- Europeans avoid the New World becuase this terrible new plague came from there - with a few exceptions. A small # of merchants, particularly from Portugal and Scotland, continue to trade in the Americas. Smallpox hits the Indians, but not as badly as its American counterpart has hit Europe. Native peoples begin to learn European technology and methods, while Europe itself continues to be a basket case of disease, war, and social/political ferment. Eventually, the nations of the Americas and Asia that are less effected by this plague will be able to invade and dominate Europe, along with most other parts of the world, using many technologies originally developed by Europeans.

How's that for a start?

How's that for a start.

[zoomar]

Paul, I like it. A nice explanation for the collapse of western European colonialist states and western Christianity. My main criticism might be the possibility that neither the Mesoamerican nor Peruvian trajectories toward civilization would continue as in OTL with such a reduction in population prior to the "classic" periods in both areas. Thus, they might not have the state-level organizations in 1500 to successfully adopt european technologiies or mount counter-invasions (on the other hand they might actually be less set in their ways and more accomodating to new ideas - who knows). Nonetheless having the Mexica/Tenocha or Inca be the dominant people in this ATL would require a lot of butterflys flapping the same way.

One would imagine, along the the survival of "oriental" despotism, technology, experimental science, and medicine would be quite retarded in this ATL 2004. I would suspect a mid 18th century level technology at the best, together with survival of slavery, patriarchical rule, and emphasis on many children in all civilized areas.
How's that for a start.[/QUOTE]

[tom]

Paul (and anyone else):
A little tip. Make your long posts in Notepad, then copy and paste. That way you can still salvage it if the board eats your post.

[Paul Spring]

Zoomar - I agree that it's extraordinarily unlikely that if such an event as my imaginary plague spread throughout the Americas almost 2000 years ago, that there would still be Aztec and Inca Empires, or an Iroquois Confederation, or anything closely resembling them. On the other hand, a massive disease wave going "the other way" - from the Americas to Europe - was the only thing I could think of that could create Native American civilizations that could not only hold their own but actually invade and conquer parts of the "Old World".

[Archangel Michael]

What-if indians were less damaged by the diease, and after a generation, developed an immunity. While Europeans were killed off by the village.

[tom]

Ezcalli, in GURPS AE 1 or 2 (look it up...)

[Max Sinister]

About subsequent events:
Russians and Aztecs concur in Central Europe and North America, Japan and Russia might clash in Siberia (what else), but Japan also concurs with the Aztecs in Australia and Alaska. Seems to me that the logical conclusion will be that Japan allies with the three lesser powers against Russians & Aztecs.
Then... if Japan & Allies win, Japan would demand North America west of the Rockies, Australia, Siberia east of, let's say, the Jenissei, most of India and Africa below the equator.
The Incas would receive big parts of South America (more influence in Brazil and the Andes), the Iriki'd get the Russian parts of NA, plus some Aztec land, and the Ottomans would expand in Nothern and Central Africa, Persia/Turkestan and SE Europe. Maybe the Caucasus and the Northern Black Sea coast, too.

OTOH, if Muscovy and Tenochca win, things are different. Inka and Iriki would have to give up their influence upon their vassals, Russia would expand on the Balcan and in Persia at the expense of the Ottomans (getting harbors in the Mediterranean and Indian Ocean), and in East Siberia and Turkestan / West China at the expense of Japan, too. The Aztecs would kick the Japanese out from Alaska and Australia (and Oceania).