A Plethora of Princes (14) - The Flames of War

[Grey Wolf]

A Plethora of Princes (14)

Thread 14 is for the European war. Thread 13b will complete with Africa when I have worked out the final details. Of particular confusion there are :-
- the relationship between Abyssinia and Egypt
- European penetration of the Horn of Africa
- Arabs and the sultanates on the East coast
- the Voortrek, did it happen, and how ?
- the Boers, if the Voortrek did not happen, how are they in the Cape ?
- the Boers, if the Voortrek did happen, where are they, eg Bechuanaland too ?

Any replies to the above in thread 13b please

This thread covers the timeline for the war, starting from the death of King Willem III of the Netherlands

Grey Wolf

[fhaessig]

For this war, could we have a short summary of the relative strength of the participants, please?

I think the two industrial powerhouses of this TL, France and Belgium are on the same side, and, if the war lasts longer than a few month, this is going to matter. What is going to balance this on the other side? Esp as France and Belgium seem to have access to the Ruhr, as client states ( even if those are less developped than OTL ).

Also, what are the development of the french and belgian navies? Did the later Orleans follow OTL Louis-Phillippe and Napoleon III's path and modernise it completely? Or did they disregard it?

Thanks

[DuQuense]

I am having trouble seeing either England or Sweden having any cards in this Game.

Sweden Has Norway, which it wanted from Denmark, and I don't think it ever wanted Denmark. And it has Finland Back. Unless Russia attack for some reason??? I thinks they will sit this one out.

There is no neutral Belgium per WW1, and no Anglo/French treaty. ?What is there, to pull Britain in?.

[Grey Wolf]

Originally Posted by fhaessig

For this war, could we have a short summary of the relative strength of the participants, please?

I think the two industrial powerhouses of this TL, France and Belgium are on the same side, and, if the war lasts longer than a few month, this is going to matter. What is going to balance this on the other side? Esp as France and Belgium seem to have access to the Ruhr, as client states ( even if those are less developped than OTL ).

Also, what are the development of the french and belgian navies? Did the later Orleans follow OTL Louis-Phillippe and Napoleon III's path and modernise it completely? Or did they disregard it?

Thanks

Hmmm, that's certainly a good point. Prussia may be not enough to balance things ? On land, Prussia can still be expected to have the best army - they invaded and crushed Denmark in the mid 1860s. However, France of course also fought on land in the same war, in Poland.

Ironically, Britain has the most recent fighting experience, the best veterans and a crop of leaders elected by war, and will be aiming to sit it out.

The French navy is first class, but then so is that of Prussia in this scenario. Prussia's will be smaller (it doesn't need a world fleet) but concentrated in the European theatre it will have modern battleships and cruisers. The origins of this is the mid 1860s war, the alliance with France and Sweden in the Baltic, and Prussia's leaders being very much aware that the advances made by their allies of that time, plus the re-establishment of Poland, threatens Prussia in the longer-term. Hence, after the seizure of Schleswig and Holstein at the start of the 1880s, Prussia has built up Kiel as a major naval base, and has been working on the Kiel Canal.

The Danes and the Dutch also have first class, if small, navies. Both nations were affected by their own defeats and have followed a course of being in the best possible position to prevent such ever again. It would be worth noting that the Dutch navy may well be split in loyalty between Willem IV and Alexander I, thus reducing its value.

Hannover is likely to go along with Prussia. Saxony is a toss-up

Grey Wolf

[Grey Wolf]

Originally Posted by DuQuense

I am having trouble seeing either England or Sweden having any cards in this Game.

Sweden Has Norway, which it wanted from Denmark, and I don't think it ever wanted Denmark. And it has Finland Back. Unless Russia attack for some reason??? I thinks they will sit this one out.

There is no neutral Belgium per WW1, and no Anglo/French treaty. ?What is there, to pull Britain in?.

Nothing as far as I can see

Unless things change I expect Britain, Ireland, Sweden, Russia, the Ottoman Empire, Egypt and the Iberian monarchies to make every effort to remain neutral

However, there may be unforeseen events somewhere down the line, probably revolving around potential Russian action if Russia sees advantage in intervening

Grey Wolf

[fhaessig]

Originally Posted by Grey Wolf

Hmmm, that's certainly a good point. Prussia may be not enough to balance things ? On land, Prussia can still be expected to have the best army - they invaded and crushed Denmark in the mid 1860s. Grey Wolf

In a short war, certainly.

However, in a long war, industrial strength is going to matter. And I don't think Prussia is very far along. Also, if a blocus is established, Nitrates are going to be a big trouble for Prussia, as there is no Haber process, so, once the stock of ammo ( and fertilizer ) is used, the country is in big trouble.

And Since we are already in the age of the Machine Gun and barbed wire, I expect that the fighting will look more like OTL1914 ( minus gaz ) that like 1870. Also, the industrial areas of France and Belgium are unlikely to be invaded straight at the beginning.

All in all, I think that, in a war of attrition, the prussian army advantage is going to be grind away ( a Black Day for the Prussian army ! ).

If the war is short, then it's quite different, but I doubt this can happen in Western Europe in the 1890s, at least for a balanced equation.

[Grey Wolf]

Originally Posted by fhaessig

In a short war, certainly.

However, in a long war, industrial strength is going to matter. And I don't think Prussia is very far along. Also, if a blocus is established, Nitrates are going to be a big trouble for Prussia, as there is no Haber process, so, once the stock of ammo ( and fertilizer ) is used, the country is in big trouble.

And Since we are already in the age of the Machine Gun and barbed wire, I expect that the fighting will look more like OTL1914 ( minus gaz ) that like 1870. Also, the industrial areas of France and Belgium are unlikely to be invaded straight at the beginning.

All in all, I think that, in a war of attrition, the prussian army advantage is going to be grind away ( a Black Day for the Prussian army ! ).

If the war is short, then it's quite different, but I doubt this can happen in Western Europe in the 1890s, at least for a balanced equation.

A blockade could be interesting. If Hannover cleaves to Prussia, then there is a coastline there for Prussia to import through. The Free Cities are more complex, but probably won't want to annoy their neighbouring giant.

Now, Chile is not particuarly keen on Britain OR France, basically all due to Araucania. I can see it actually wanting to supply Prussia. Logic has to come into play here somewhere - if they try and use US ships, then Britain won't be too upset underhandedly helping France, but if they try and use British ships it gets complicated.

The main question is whether France CAN blockade Prussia in this scenario. With a good navy, Prussia still needs to get it out of the Baltic, which a hostile Denmark would create problems for. The Kiel Canal is unfinished, but has been building sufficiently long that it could probably be opened in some way.

Grey Wolf

[Grey Wolf]

A reply I'll post here, though it was made initially to a post at my alternate fiction board (link in sig)

I really can't see the whole conflict being coloured by religion, however much the attraction of such a dystopian conflict might be

I can certainly see it having elements, especially since the spark within the Netherlands is such, but I would think that even Belgium's intervention over Northern Brabant is as much driven by realpolitik as is it is by Catholic solidarity

I certainly don't see Prussia as focusing entirely on religion. The aims of the king there, whoever we decide he is, would be primarily to create the circumstances where Prussia is able to exercise hegemony over, at the least. Northern Germany.

France's considerations are going to be strategic and dynastic as much as they would be Catholic

Austria will be looking at Prussia warily, will have several German states demanding guarantees from her, be swamped with alliances etc. One could see this coming from Protestant states as much as from Catholic ones

You're suggestion on the Pope is a good idea. Pius IX died in 1878, so the new one has had a dozen years to sort out his rule in the Papal States, get things settled down, and begin to turn outwards. I'm not sure if that ties into an extremist though ?

Grey Wolf

[fhaessig]

Originally Posted by Grey Wolf

The main question is whether France CAN blockade Prussia in this scenario. With a good navy, Prussia still needs to get it out of the Baltic, which a hostile Denmark would create problems for. The Kiel Canal is unfinished, but has been building sufficiently long that it could probably be opened in some way.

Grey Wolf

The thing is, if France has has continued the OTL L-P NIII policy it really has a world class navy ( OTL, the 1860s were one of the few time the french navy rivaled the RN in history ). If Prussia had made the effort to build a Navy to rival it, then something else would have to give, and that something would have to have been the Army. Which I don't think is at all likely. So, while the Prussia navy is likely to be strong against it's neighboors, I don't think it can be in the same league as the RN, the USN or the french Navy. I think it's role in the coming war is going to serve as costal defence, maybe to defend the Baltic and as a fleet in being. Much like the KM in OTL WWI. I doubt it can be more.

Another question : do the french have the 75mm? In OTL, it was deployed in 1896. However, this was the result of the lessons of the 70-71 war. Here, france ffought in the mid-60s. Is the 75 deployment also more advanced?

Same question for the Prussian rifle. In OTL WWI, germany's main riffle was also a model 96, IIRC. If the Prussian are using their old needle gun, the french are going to have a significant advantage with the Lebel ( which I assume they have, by this time ).

Lastly, what about Prussian artillery? With Krupp not in Prussia, I assume the Prussia won't want to depend solely on them for their weapons. Will this have an impact on the quality and quantity of the Prussian guns?

BTW, where does Austria stand in the coming war? We already know Russia is going to stand aside, at least at first. I assume Poland is going to be against Prussia, so Austria is going to be quite important ( also due to it's influance on the south german states ).

[Grey Wolf]

Originally Posted by fhaessig

The thing is, if France has has continued the OTL L-P NIII policy it really has a world class navy ( OTL, the 1860s were one of the few time the french navy rivaled the RN in history ). If Prussia had made the effort to build a Navy to rival it, then something else would have to give, and that something would have to have been the Army. Which I don't think is at all likely. So, while the Prussia navy is likely to be strong against it's neighboors, I don't think it can be in the same league as the RN, the USN or the french Navy. I think it's role in the coming war is going to serve as costal defence, maybe to defend the Baltic and as a fleet in being. Much like the KM in OTL WWI. I doubt it can be more.

Point taken. It probably is so. I would reckon that given where the ironclad was born (the Baltic) then you have more traditional fleets in this area, and that Prussia and Sweden are probably equal, and either is twice the size of Denmark. Maybe the Dutch are as large as Prussia, due to the nature of their nation. But that even in a European-focused deployment, the Prussians can't be more than 2/3 of the French, with France being able to pull ships from foreign stations if necessary. I would see Belgium as probably having no greater fleet than Denmark, and quite possibly not as modern, though with the Netherlands as a neighbour, and with spare industrial output, it would seem just as logical to have a small compact ironclad fleet for Belgium - what think you ?

Another question : do the french have the 75mm? In OTL, it was deployed in 1896. However, this was the result of the lessons of the 70-71 war. Here, france ffought in the mid-60s. Is the 75 deployment also more advanced?

Same question for the Prussian rifle. In OTL WWI, germany's main riffle was also a model 96, IIRC. If the Prussian are using their old needle gun, the french are going to have a significant advantage with the Lebel ( which I assume they have, by this time ).

Lastly, what about Prussian artillery? With Krupp not in Prussia, I assume the Prussia won't want to depend solely on them for their weapons. Will this have an impact on the quality and quantity of the Prussian guns?

OK, I own up - I have no idea Overall I'm a political historian, a military historian in general overview, and sometimes a naval historian in detail. But when it comes to individual weapons I haven't a fluffy bunny.

In general terms, I intend that Prussia continues to aim to be the foremost military in Europe. This may be a fallacy on their part, but they won't neglect any area in the attempt to be this. I would think that the mid 1860s gave them sufficient understanding of artillery and modern guns to have developed a rolling programme to keep up to date. In addition, they would probably have had advisors at major wars - almost certainly in Corrientes/Chaco to see the British and the Americans come to blows.

BTW, where does Austria stand in the coming war? We already know Russia is going to stand aside, at least at first. I assume Poland is going to be against Prussia, so Austria is going to be quite important ( also due to it's influance on the south german states ).

I am not sure about Austria. I see Rudolph as in bliss, happily married to his young wife, revelling in his young sons, and overcoming his personal trauma of shooting his father. In terms of matters of state, he is not going to be rash or foolhardy, but he will feel a very real sense of Austria's place in history, and in Europe. With various states clamouring for protective alliances, I don't think he would be able to refrain from entering the melee, initially as a guarantor, then later as a combatant.

As for Poland, I don't think it is at all in King Maximilian's interests to seek war. Whilst Posen would be very nice indeed, the risk of a Russian revanchist policy would prevent him from doing anything more than being ready and following the events closely.

Grey Wolf

[fhaessig]

Originally Posted by Grey Wolf

I would see Belgium as probably having no greater fleet than Denmark, and quite possibly not as modern, though with the Netherlands as a neighbour, and with spare industrial output, it would seem just as logical to have a small compact ironclad fleet for Belgium - what think you ?

I'm of two mind about Belgium navy.

On the one hand, Capital ships are prestige assets ( BTW, shouldn't we be moving out of the ironclad era and into the pre-dred one? ) and as you stated, Belgium has the spare output and wealth for a few.

OTOH, Belium doesn't have any really good natural harbour except for Antwerpen ( I discount ZeeBrugge and Oostende ). And the Dutch control both side of the access channel to Antwerpen, making it useless as a military base for big ships ( aka slow moving targets ) in case of war.

All in all, I see Belgium more innovating in naval matters, with quick torpedo boats and submarines for costal defense and quick dash in the Schelde. I think OTL Jeune Ecole will be known as the belgian school in this TL.

Maybe there will be a couple long distance cruisers added for power projections, but I really think the belgian Navy is going to go for swarm of small ships, to avoid the dutch coastal batteries ( submatines being of course immune to these ).

Originally Posted by Grey Wolf

OK, I own up - I have no idea Overall I'm a political historian, a military historian in general overview, and sometimes a naval historian in detail. But when it comes to individual weapons I haven't a fluffy bunny.

In general terms, I intend that Prussia continues to aim to be the foremost military in Europe. This may be a fallacy on their part, but they won't neglect any area in the attempt to be this. I would think that the mid 1860s gave them sufficient understanding of artillery and modern guns to have developed a rolling programme to keep up to date. In addition, they would probably have had advisors at major wars - almost certainly in Corrientes/Chaco to see the British and the Americans come to blows.

I'm no specialist either and I was thinking in terms of WWI weapons. Two major weapons were from 96 in case of the french gun and 98 ( I misremembered ) for the Mauser riffle. I was wondering if those would be already available or rushed into production for the coming war. ( I don't see any change that OTL Mle13 77mm gun be rushed, OTOH ).

These may have some impact on the war, as they played a major part in the thinking of their respective military.

I assume that the development of the TL tech is about per oTL?

Originally Posted by Grey Wolf

I am not sure about Austria. I see Rudolph as in bliss, happily married to his young wife, revelling in his young sons, and overcoming his personal trauma of shooting his father. In terms of matters of state, he is not going to be rash or foolhardy, but he will feel a very real sense of Austria's place in history, and in Europe. With various states clamouring for protective alliances, I don't think he would be able to refrain from entering the melee, initially as a guarantor, then later as a combatant.

As for Poland, I don't think it is at all in King Maximilian's interests to seek war. Whilst Posen would be very nice indeed, the risk of a Russian revanchist policy would prevent him from doing anything more than being ready and following the events closely.

Grey Wolf

Ah, that means only one front for Prussia. Easier for them then, but they may well need this.

It also means the war is not going to be as big as I thought. It's going to be France/belgium/south Netherlands on one side and North Netherland/Hannover/Prussia on the other, with a smattering of lesser german states involved, right? And with South Germany trying to stay neutral?

In such a case, given the narrowness of the potential front, the manpower available and the technology ( machine guns, mainly ), I think the front will be rather static after the first lines are drawn. Especially given the patterns of railroads and channels ( in the Netherlands ). Headlong attacks are going to end up in bloodbath, as will landings if anyone is foolish enougth to attem one. It's going to be a war of attrition.

I wonder how this war is going to spur military tech. It's too early for planes, but not for tanks ( OTL, the first prototypes were in 1898 ).

I don't think combat gases are going to be used, however, as I don't think Prussia will have anything like OTL chemical industry, and the french had none.

[Grey Wolf]

Originally Posted by fhaessig

I'm of two mind about Belgium navy.

On the one hand, Capital ships are prestige assets ( BTW, shouldn't we be moving out of the ironclad era and into the pre-dred one? )

Well, the term ironclad probably remains after the ships have stopped being iron CLAD. Obviously they are not going to be called pre-dreadnoughts, because that's a retrospective term. Battleships would I assume be the term in use, as always. I'll try and remember that in future

...and as you stated, Belgium has the spare output and wealth for a few.

OTOH, Belgium doesn't have any really good natural harbour except for Antwerpen ( I discount ZeeBrugge and Oostende ). And the Dutch control both side of the access channel to Antwerpen, making it useless as a military base for big ships (aka slow moving targets ) in case of war.

All in all, I see Belgium more innovating in naval matters, with quick torpedo boats and submarines for costal defense and quick dash in the Schelde. I think OTL Jeune Ecole will be known as the belgian school in this TL.

That's certainly an interesting point, and what with everyone else having a prod to the ironclad/battleship, I could see this turn of affairs.

Maybe there will be a couple long distance cruisers added for power projections, but I really think the Belgian Navy is going to go for swarm of small ships, to avoid the Dutch coastal batteries ( submarines being of course immune to these ).

I don't see any likelihood of earlier submarine development, not fully functioning ones anyway

I assume that the development of the TL tech is about per OTL?

Probably-ish. How do you see the relationship between industrialisation and technology ?

Ah, that means only one front for Prussia. Easier for them then, but they may well need this.

It also means the war is not going to be as big as I thought. It's going to be France/belgium/south Netherlands on one side and North Netherland/Hannover/Prussia on the other, with a smattering of lesser german states involved, right? And with South Germany trying to stay neutral?

In such a case, given the narrowness of the potential front, the manpower available and the technology (machine guns, mainly ), I think the front will be rather static after the first lines are drawn. Especially given the patterns of railroads and channels (in the Netherlands ). Headlong attacks are going to end up in bloodbath, as will landings if anyone is foolish enough to attempt one. It's going to be a war of attrition.

I could see Prussia in an effort to break the deadlock attacking across neutral territory, dragging in Austria but gambling on victory before that matters.

I wonder how this war is going to spur military tech. It's too early for planes, but not for tanks ( OTL, the first prototypes were in 1898 ).

I don't think combat gases are going to be used, however, as I don't think Prussia will have anything like OTL chemical industry, and the french had none.

Hmm, depends on the level of industrialisation-cum-technology does it not ?

And, how do you see the nitrates issue being solved ? How did Prussia deal with such things in 1870 for example ?

Grey Wolf

[fhaessig]

Originally Posted by Grey Wolf

I don't see any likelihood of earlier submarine development, not fully functioning ones anyway

OTL 'Gymnote' ( http://rbmn.waika9.com/Krebs_Gymnote.html ) was lanched in 1888, so we're not speaking about earlier development here. It's on par with OTL.

Originally Posted by Grey Wolf

Probably-ish. How do you see the relationship between industrialisation and technology ?

Complex.

Industrialisation somewhat drives technology, in some area, mostly in industrial process, IMO.

IMHO, science is the main driver for technology. At least for the major discoveries. Industrialisation, however, drives science in that it creates a demand ( and finance ) for systematic R and D.

OTOH, once the basic science and technologies are known, industrialisation has a lot of impact on how they are applied.

Industrialisation also creates wealth, which can cause science or technology advances.

Originally Posted by Grey Wolf

I could see Prussia in an effort to break the deadlock attacking across neutral territory, dragging in Austria but gambling on victory before that matters.

Just like with USA in WWI. Definitely possible, IMO. However, I think this will bite them back. Not that they will think so.

Originally Posted by Grey Wolf

Hmm, depends on the level of industrialisation-cum-technology does it not ?

Yes, but it presupposes a fully developped chemical industry. in OTL 1890, Germany's was still in infancy, so I don't think Prussia will have one. As for France, it didn't have one in OTL 1914 and went from scratch to produce combat gas. I don't see anything in the TL which causes Frances to devellop a full chemicals industry by 1890. SO I don't think any of the protagonist has the pre-war means to produce meaningful quantities of combat gas. And if neither begins, none will feel constrained to follow suits. So the genie is likely to stay in the bottle for this war.

Originally Posted by Grey Wolf

And, how do you see the nitrates issue being solved ? How did Prussia deal with such things in 1870 for example ?

Grey Wolf

The same way they planned to do it in 1914. Plan for a short Victorious war and achieve victory quickly. In the prussian military stratege's mind, there was no need to stock nitrates, as the existing ammunition stocks were enougth for the whole war, and no further production was needed. Indeed in 1914, both France and Germany shut down weapons and ammunition plants and conscripted the skilled labour as infantry.

[Shawn Endresen]

Sorry for the non sequitur.

You asked for probable Pope names for your three candidates. Your first is an Urban or a Boniface (Urban if he's a hardnosed horsetrader, Boniface for a gladhanding schmoozer); your second should be a Martin, but he might be a Constance or a Clement. And the third is an Innocent or a Gregory. My two cents, YMMV