Rise of the 5 Empires

This is a very, very rough timeline, so please forgive me if I make a bunch of mistakes ....


c. 1585 Oda Nobunaga unifies Japan under his rule and survives for many years. He forges strong links with Portuguese and Spanish representatives. The Japanese begin to copy European techniques for making heavy cannon and fortifications, as well as the muskets that they have already learned to make well.

1581 - King Philip of Spain becomes King of Portugal

1588 - Spanish Armada defeated, plans for Spanish to invade England fail.

1591 - 1598 - Japanese invasion and conquest of Korea. Naval defeats by Korean forces spur Japanese to build stronger, better armed ships, at least partly modeled after Spanish galleons. The Koreans continue guerrilla resistance with Chinese support for years to come.

c1600 - Growing internal unrest and military defeats against Japan and others prod the Ming government into attempting some tentative reforms that did not happen in OTL.

1603 - England and Scotland both come under the rule of King James of the Stuart dynasty.

1607 - In North America, the French settle at Quebec and the English at Jamestown

1609 - Oda Nobunaga dies. His son and successor maintains control of Japan and further strengthens ties with the Spanish and Portuguese.

1612 - The Oda ruler assumes the formal title of Shogun. All trade with Europeans other than the Spanish and Portuguese is forbidden.
Japanese are encouraged to settle in Korea as the last major guerrilla resistance is wiped up.

1618 - "Defenestration of Prague" marks the beginning of the 30 Years' War in Europe.

1620 - English Separatists, a strongly Calvinist religious group, settle at Plymouth, Massachusetts Bay in North America.

1624 - 1628 - China is racked by civil war. A prominent general, distantly related to the ruling family, raises a revolt against the Emperor and the corrupt eunuchs who are widely regarded as the greatest obstacle to reform. Large sections of the army and peasantry rally to this generals' standard. In 1627, rebel forces capture Beijing. The new Emperor is actually from a family offshoot of the ruling Ming family, so he keeps the title for his dynasty. Historians will generally refer to this new dynasty as the "Later Ming".

1630-33 - Chinese Emperor defeats Manchu and Mongol forces who had seized Chinese territory during the civil war.

1642 - Beginning of English Civil War between supporters of the King and supporters of Parliament.

1648 - End of 30 Years' War in Europe. Spain's power is greatly reduced, while France has become much more powerful. The Netherlands are formally recognized as independent from Spain after decades of de facto independence.

1649 - Charles I, formerly King of England and Scotland, is beheaded. Parliament takes control of England.

1650 - First Emperor of "Later Ming" dynasty dies. His son is determined to eliminate the last vestiges of resistance to the new dynasty.

1651 - The ruler of Taiwan, a loyalist to the old Ming dynasty, signs an agreement with the Shogunate of Japan in which the Japanese will help defend the island against any attempt to capture it from mainland China in return for major trade and political concessions that basically make the island a protectorate of Japan.

1656 - Chinese attempt to invade Taiwan is crushed by superior Japanese naval forces. The Chinese are shocked and soon begin to take a stronger interest in the large-scale use of modern gunpowder weapons.

1660 - Stuart dynasty is restored to power in England and Scotland.

1670s and 1680s - King Louis XIV of France fights a series of wars against the Dutch, Austrians, Spanish, and several other enemies. France gains a little more territory, the gains are not decisive.

1680s - Tsar Alexei II takes the throne is Russia, and begins a program to modernize Russia's armies. (Butterflies mean that Peter the Great is never born, and instead we have Alexei II, who is also interested in reform. He is considerably more cautious and less daring than Peter the Great in OTL, but he is also much less autocratic and brutal toward opposition.)

1680s - China expands trade with Dutch and English merchants. Techniques for building cannon, muskets, and ships are borrowed and modified by the Chinese.

1688 - King James II of England, who has converted to Catholicism, announces that now he has a son and heir to the throne. Many of the Protestant elite are appalled, and plot to bring in his Protestant daughter Mary, along with her Dutch husband William, as the new rulers. William crosses to England with a substantial army. James panicks at first, but later rallies some of his forces.

1689 - 1693 - Second English Civil War James suffers a series of defeats, first in England and Wales and then in Ireland. Eventually, he and many of his supporters flee to France. During this fighting English, Dutch, and Scottish Protestant leaders manage to form a strong working relationship. Mary has a son in 1693, who is also named William (although there are whispered doubts about his true parentage.)

1695 - The Japanese shogunate dissolves the puppet government on Thailand and declares the island a province of Japan itself.

1704 - King Charles II of Spain dies childless. There had long been controversy over the issue of whether the French Bourbons or the Austrian Hapsburgs would get to inherit the Spanish throne. In the end, Charles leaves the throne to the Bourbon candidate, Louis' nephew Philip. Austria, England, and the Netherlands will not accept this.

1704 - 1712 - War of the Spanish Succession - In spite of some setbacks, this war is generally favorable to France. (One possible reason is that Marlborough, who played an important role in the war in OTL, was killed in the 2nd English Civil War in this timeline.) When the war ends, the Bourbons are confirmed as the ruling dynasty of Spain, with the future possibility of unification of the French and Spanish thrones. France gains considerable territory at the expense of Savoy and the Spanish Netherlands (which are compensated with a little piece of Dutch territory. Overseas, French Acadia is seized by the British, but Canada remains in French hands. The British get Minorca, but fail to take Gibraltar.

1706 - William dies, his son becomes King William IV of England and Scotland, and Stadtholder of the Netherlands.

1707 - China invades the lightly-defended Spanish Phillippines.


Here is a map of what I expect this world to look like in another 100 years or so -

Very interesting.

Paul Spring said:

1695 - The Japanese shogunate dissolves the puppet government on Thailand and declares the island a province of Japan itself.

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I take it that should be Taiwan, not Thailand?

This is a very, very rough timeline, so please forgive me if I make a bunch of mistakes ....

Can't make more than I did in my Confederacy Wins timeline...

I take it that should be Taiwan, not Thailand?

That's correct - consider it a really bad typo

Is there anything wildly improbable about this so far?

More of the timeline ...

I realize that the first few years of this have already been covered, but please bear with me ...


1704 – King Charles II of Spain dies. He officially leaves Spain and all of its territories to Philippe, nephew of King Louis XIV of France. The Austrians, whose own family was related to the old Spanish dynasty and who also have claims on the throne, refuse to accept this. They are backed up by England and the Netherlands, which do not want to see the Kingdoms of Spain and France united under the same dynasty (and possibly the same ruler in the future.) The War of the Spanish Succession begins.

1704 – 1712 – The fighting in Europe is generally to France’s advantage. France allies with Bavaria and forces Austrian forces to defend their own kingdom from the Franco-Bavarian forces to the west. Dutch and British forces move into the Spanish Netherlands, but are then driven out by Franco-Spanish forces. A French attempt to invade the Netherlands themselves is unsuccessful, however. An English and Austrian supported uprising in parts of Spain in favor of the Hapsburg claimant to the throne fails. The Duchy of Savoy in Italy loses some territory to France, but the French are kept out of the heart of northern Italy.

1706 – William of Orange dies – he is succeeded by his son, also named William, as King of England and Scotland and Stadtholder of the Netherlands

1707 – Port Royal, capital of French province of Acadia in North America, is captured by British & colonial forces.

1707 – 1712 – Russia, supported by Denmark, goes to war against an alliance of Poland and Sweden.

1708 – Chinese fleet meets Japanese/Spanish fleet off the coast of Luzon Island, Philippines, in an indecisive battle. Manila falls to Chinese forces.

1709 – China effectively controls Luzon Island. A Chinese attempt to invade Taiwan fails. A combined French-Spanish force captures the British trading base at Bombay on the western coast of India. French outposts on the northern coast of South America are captured.

1710 – Chinese encourage Manchus, backed by Imperial troops, to attack Japanese-held Japan. This attack fails to make any significant gains. Japan strengthens outposts on island of Karafuto (Sakhalin), establishes a base on the Kamchatka Peninsula. An attempt by English colonial and Iroquois forces to capture the French town of Montreal on the St. Lawrence River fails.

1711 – Japanese and Russian forces clash (on a very small scale) on Kamchatka peninsula. Chinese forces push Russian outposts back from the Amur River area. A small French force fails to retake Acadia. Japan establishes an outpost on the northern coast of Borneo.

1712 – Treaty of Macao signed between China, Spain, and Japan. Spain cedes Luzon, the largest and northernmost of the Philippine Islands, to China. The rest of the Philippines remains Spanish. China formally recognizes Japan’s control of Korea and Taiwan, and a boundary is set between Japanese-controlled Korea and Chinese-controlled Manchuria.

- Treaty of Riga signed between Russia, Poland, and Sweden. Russia gains considerable territory along the Baltic coast, although Sweden also keeps a piece if OTL Estonia. Poland-Lithuania loses a lot of land to Russia. Sweden gains some pieces of Norway from Denmark.

1713 – Treaty of Brussels ends War of the Spanish Succession. Philippe inherits Spain and all of its territories except for Milan, which goes to the Austrians. The Bourbons retain the right to unite France and Spain under a single ruler. France gains some more territory along its eastern frontier. Britain gains control of Acadia in North America but cedes Bombay in India to France. Britain does not get Minorca or Gibraltar.

1714 – China and Russia sign a treaty suspending hostilities along their frontier.

1714-1718 – Parliaments of England and Scotland and the assembly in the Netherlands pass a series of laws drawing England, Netherlands, and Scotland together into a duty-free trade zone. Their armies and fleets are more closely integrated. Each country retains a substantial amount of autonomy, though.

1716 – Louis XIVs great-grandson, the heir to the throne of France, dies.

1717 – Louis XIV of France dies. On his deathbed, he announces what people have already known for months – his nephew Philippe, the King of Spain, will also become King of France.

1718 – Philippe crowned King of France.

1719- Tsar Alexei of Russia dies, succeeded by his son Ivan V.

1720 – The Duc D’Orleans is exiled from France for plotting with a group of nobles who are disgruntled at Philippe’s rule. He asks to go to French-controlled Bombay in India, and his request is granted. In the same year, the French found a new trading center called Nouvelle Marseilles in Louisiana (same site as OTL New Orleans)

1720s – King Philippe of France and Spain takes a number of measures to strengthen his kingdoms and bring them closer together. Joint maneuvers are held by the French and Spanish armies and naval forces. Both navies begin a major period of overhaul to replace older ships with more effective new ones. French engineers advise Spanish commanders on improvements to fortresses in Spain itself and the Spanish colonies. Trade between French and Spanish colonies is encouraged. At the same time, England, Scotland, and the Netherlands are trying to draw their armies, navies, and colonies together in a similar fashion. Fortifications in the Netherlands are improved, and fortifications even appear on the Channel Coast of England.

1722 – Ivan V of Russia goes to war against the Ottoman Empire. A Japanese expedition finds several of the Aleutian Islands and claims them as Japanese territory.

1724 – The Stuart “pretender” to the thrones of England and Scotland lands in Scotland and raises an army. At the same time, his agents spark an uprising in Ireland. All of this is supported behind the scenes with covert aid from France and Spain, but Philippe will not give direct aid since the countries are at peace. After some early success, the pretender’s army is defeated in Scotland, and he flees to Ireland.

1725 – After suffering more defeats in Ireland, the pretender flees to France. The Chinese Empire annexes Tibet after several years of unsuccessful resistance.

1726 – Russian-Ottoman war ends with Russia gaining most of the territory north of the Black Sea except for the Crimean Peninsula itself.

1728 – Spain proposes to purchase Portuguese territories in southern Brazil and outposts along the eastern and western coasts of Africa. The offers are refused by Portugal.

1729 – Russian traders reach the Aleutians and claim several islands for Russia – some of them are the same islands that have already been claimed for Japan.

1730 – A sudden massing of Spanish army and naval forces near Portugal persuades the King of Portugal that it would be a good idea to sell those territories to Spain after all.

Gibalter

The Royal Marines are going to hate this. The taking of Gibalter ranks as one of the Great moments in Royal Marine History. [They scaled the sea side cliffs, and attacked the Spainish from the rear.] Like Tripoli for the American Marines.

Sahlikin

IOTL Japan didn't start exploring Sahlikin Island till the 1840's and it was the near war over the island in the 1850's that lead to Japan & Russia establishing diplomatic relations.
?Your TL has this advanced 120 years?

- Treaty of Riga signed between Russia, Poland, and Sweden. Russia gains considerable territory along the Baltic coast, although Sweden also keeps a piece if OTL Estonia. Poland-Lithuania loses a lot of land to Russia. Sweden gains some pieces of Norway from Denmark.

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Considering the historical Great Nordic War that seems very unlikely.

Well Paul, I think this is a good TL you have going here.

Only thing I don't understand though is when Portugal regained her independence from Spain. You never mention, so I was surprised when you had Spain (in the now joint Franco-Spanish kingdom) offer to buy some Portuguese colonial territory. I thought that Portugal would have come along as a part of Spain in the Bourbon ("Borbon" in Italian and Spanish) inheritance, thus giving a de facto Franco-Spanish-Portuguese kingdom which has territories in Italy (hmmm...it's beginning to look like a revived Roman(ic) Empire).

Yes, it was a bad oversight that I didn't mention Portugal becoming independent again in the 1640s. At that point, events in Europe are still going almost exactly the same as in OTL - the 30 Years' War, the English Civil War, etc, so I see no good reason why Portugal wouldn't become independent.

Now that France and Spain are joined in a sort of super-kingdom, Portugal is in a terrible position - they can't hope to resist pressure from both Kingdoms together. I believe that in my timeline they will end up allying with the "Triple Kingdom" to preserve themselves.

Paul Spring said:

Now that France and Spain are joined in a sort of super-kingdom, Portugal is in a terrible position - they can't hope to resist pressure from both Kingdoms together. I believe that in my timeline they will end up allying with the "Triple Kingdom" to preserve themselves.

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Is that why a bunch of northern Brazil is in Triple Kingdom hands? Did the Portugese sell or cede it to them to win their support?

[NOTE: From now on, the Kingdoms of England and Scotland plus the Netherlands will be referred to as the "Triple Monarchy", even though it actually took a while for the Netherlands to become a true monarchy. The Kingdoms of France and Spain will be referred to as the "Dual Monarchy"]


1731 - The Triple Monarchy encourages more settlement in the Dutch Cape Colony of southern Africa and the English colony of Savannah (OTL Georgia) in North America. This is done to counter possible encroachment from the Dual Monarchy.

- The French India Trading Company allies with the Marathas, a Hindu group that is gaining power in southern and central India as the old Mughal Empire disintegrates

1732 - A Japanese naval expedition reaches the mainland of North America near OTL Vancouver Island. It explores and claims parts of the coast and islands all the way up to Alaska and the eastern Aleutians. The expedition encounters Russian traders in the Aleutians (in fact, the Russians have also reached the mainland.) An open conflict is barely averted, but the area of conflicting claims between these two countries has greatly expanded.

- The Triple Monarchy signs a treaty of trade and friendship with China. China sends an embassador to London, the first time that it has ever established a permanent diplomatic link with another empire. (Until this time, Chinese relations with other states had always involved either bringing foreign representatives to China or sending Chinese envoys abroad, for a temporary period in both cases. Historically, the Chinese elite had usually treated foreign relations as a matter of receiving tribute from vassals or graciously giving gifts to them, rather than a long-term partnership of equals.)


- The Triple Monarchy signs a treaty of friendship with the Six Nations or Iroquois Confederacy in the colony of New York.


1733-34 - The Dual Monarchy sends a naval expedition of 4 ships west from South America. This expedition comes across a number of small Islands, but no large continental mass. Finally, they do discover a larger chunk of land - the North Island of OTL New Zealand, and then land on the eastern coast of Australia. As they try to sail north and west into the Indian Ocean, 2 ships are lost when they strike coral reefs. The other 2 ships continue on and eventually reach the Japanese-controlled enclave on the northern coast of Borneo. There they replenish and repair, and the Japanese authorities manage to learn quite a bit about what they have discovered.

1734 - The Triple Monarchy signs an agreement with the Kingdom of Portugal. The Triple Monarchy purchases much of the northern part of Brazil, but the Portuguese still have trading and other commercial rights there. The treaty promises that the Triple Monarchy will defend Portugal and her territory from any attack by the Dual Monarchy.

1735 - The Tsar of Russia orders a major naval base to be built along the Sea of Okhotsk.

The newly-ascended Chinese Emperor orders preparations for an expeditionary fleet that will sail east to the Americas.

1736 - A slave rebellion breaks out on the British-controlled island of Jamaica. The Dual Monarchy is suspected of having a hand in this, but in fact the last thing that any of the European powers in the Caribbean really wanted to do was encourage a slave rebellion.

1737 - The Dual Monarchy begins a campaign to crack down on illegal smuggling of goods into and out of their colonies by foreign merchants. Most of these foreign merchants are from the Triple Monarchy countries - England, the Netherlands, Scotland - or their colonies. Tensions rise between the two rivals.

The Dual Monarchy and Japan sign a treaty of friendship and trade under similar terms to what the Triple Monarchy and China signed a few years earlier.

1738 - Chinese expedition sails east for the Americas.

A serious uprising breaks out in the Kingdom of Naples and Sicily, which is controlled by the Dual Monarchy.

Hmm. One thing I'd ask is what's going on in Germany?

Hmm. One thing I'd ask is what's going on in Germany?

Nothing, absolutely nothing.

Seriously, though, I haven't researched this much, but I think that the 3 greatest differences by the 1730s would be -

Bavaria would be somewhat larger - they allied with France during the War of the Spanish succession, and unlike in OTL France and her allies generally did well during this war, at least in Europe.

Hanover remains just another decent-sized German principality - its ruling family doesn't ever become rulers of a major empire. Still, I think there's a good chance that Hanover will end up an ally of the Triple Monarchy.

I don't think that Prussia will become as significant a power in the 18th century here as in OTL. Prussia was on the side of Austria, England, and the Netherlands in the War of the Spanish Succession, and in this timeline that side lost (although not decisively). I'm pretty sure that butterflies by this point will replace OTL Frederick the Great with a competent but not outstanding ruler.

There's not going to be a War of the Austrian Succession - butterflies mean that there is a male heir to the Hapsburg possessions and no pretext for starting a war or seizing Austrian territory.

There will be probably be another 2 or even 3 major wars during the 18th century in western and central Europe, but from now on they will be quite different from the wars of OTL, although some of the patterns of international rivalry are still similar to OTL.