Oh boy I can’t wait for the increase of intermarriages in the south due to less white men there are
Uh, I'm really not helping with stereotypes about the "incestous" Southerners.
That's certainly quite the progress and sure to bring what will probably the next big political battle (in addition to civil service reform) in the 1880-90s (?) - the size of the Federal government and taxation. U.S. social spending was already low at a federal and state level, with mostly private social initiatives to add on to it. Given the greater Federal expenditure, I can't see the income tax being repealed in 1872 and it was popular to keep the tariffs up for the sake of the Eastern manufacturers at the expense of the agrarian states in the Midwest and South and tariffs were vital for financing the pensions of ACW veterans.
On this point, I do wonder if the South can attract more immigrants from Europe, especially if genuine agricultural reform happens and alternative economic enterprises to plantation business arise.
Taxes are going to be headache, for sure... I still don't get all that "bimetalism" stuff.
The South was not attractive to immigrants mostly because it kept the plantation framework. One planter went as far as trying to get some Swedes to live in the former slave quarters. With this system so thoroughly demolished, the region may receive greater immigration.
On that note, speaking of which, we could have TTL's Hague Conventions formalize in an international context what would be settled in post-Civil War diplomatic spats over Confederate exiles or British sailors in raiders.
I don't think we could see a fully fledged international treaty given the nature of the Civil War as a predominantly internal conflict, but it can certainly be an important antecesor.
The more pessimistic, but I think somewhat more likely in the short-term, prospect is that we see massive white flight to the north, a sort of inverse of OTL where the Great Migration still happens to the great northern industrial cities but with overwhelmingly Southern whites, not blacks, forming the vast bulk of the migrants. Which would mean the South, at least for a few generations, becomes totally dominated by black supermajorities with still not a lot of intermingling going on - and meanwhile the southern whites will be facing pretty significant prejudice from northern industrial workers who fear being displaced. Which I guess would keep a theoretical left-wing coalition of Northern urban working class and Southern blacks pretty healthy for at least a few generation but still isn't quite proper racial integration. It will take decades to unlearn the level of racism drilled into Southern whites and only magnified exponentially by the war and the Confederacy.
Though this would indeed leave a lot of empty land lying around which would be very attractive for European migrants of some varieties. Some might find the climate not to their taste though.
Yes, I have thought of that. On the one hand, it does make integration somewhat hard, and may result in a less diverse Northern US. But there are some factors that work against this and that actually augur for positive changes in the future. The first is that, a more Reconstructed South where the plantation has been completely wiped away is probably more attractive for other immigrants, people with less prejudices. The second is that those who engage in White flight are likely the "unreconstructed" portion, and it's probably better to get rid of them anyway. In fact, in this very thread it's been suggested that Lincoln could actually offer them Western land as a form of soft exile - better for them to be quiet out West than causing problem down South. Finally, the North will probably always be more developed, such that internal patterns of migration will probably still result in Black migration to the North. Altogether, the result should be a very diverse South and a North just as diverse after a few decades.
Lol, speaking of sports, the Kentucky Derby had 13 black jockeys at first, and it was very common to have them in the first decade or so. When you cover kentucky, you should share what goes on here. I suspect that the prevalence of black jockeys May well continue, in fact it is possible that horse racing may be looked down upon because of this as a black sport.
The stereotype of them as athletes and entertainers might appear well over half a century early. After all, they start like this it might be an area where Southern lights, feeling pressured to accept blacks in some areas, will grudgingly accept that integration can occur in these areas and remain. Perhaps Sports will become something that encourages people to accept them together in some areas.
Of course, a real struggle would occur if a black man tried to enter a horse. ( I had to look up about trainers, I wasn't sure if they had them at first, but they did. And the trainer of that first Derby winner was also black.)
Those population figures with the casualties from the war are astounding. Only 700,000 survive of military age once all of the famine and everything are done, and some of those will be missing limbs and such. Truly, the women will be easily convinced that the planters totally destroyed their society because they have no white men.
In fact, I think sports are one of the places where we could see actual social integration happening far earlier. It's a very intriguing possibility. And yes, you're right, a lot of the survivors are bound to be wounded or suffering from PTSD. This is a massive generational trauma.
It's either Immigration, becoming old maids, or planter caused miscengenation for those extra white women. And you may see many of the few who 'stoop' to that last one publically refused.
"I'm sorry ma'am but we blacks have enough of each sex. Don't let your menfolk start such hard wars if you want to still be able to find a husband."
Some northerners may even accuse such women.of making a last ditch effort to keep at least one slave, as a black man could never be a white woman's master.
Eh, the politics are definitely going to be messy. I actually think most would rather die unmarried than marry or cohabitate with a Black man.
Me thinks that the union will encourage immigration to the south from both home and abroad so as to break up the confederate power base and ensure that this doesn’t happen again. After all, it’s better to build up a support base among newly settled immigrants then the confederates. Since most of said immigrants don’t have positive things to say about slavery.
That's certainly one of the policies being contemplated by the Administration.
Publicly refused? Doubtful. Social conditions are rapidly changing, but that's a line that many Black Americans will not likely cross. A white woman is still a white woman - she holds a place in the hierarchy they do not.
That said, as was mentioned before in the thread, the topic of intermarriage with everyone else in the country is going to be an interesting discussion ITTL. A Black population that's more prosperous, because presumably they're more integrated into the social fabric, will likely cross lines earlier but the degree to which this happens is probably going to be quite staggered. However, that carries with it the fact that even if parts of the white population absolutely tank like we're seeing now and we see a greater Black population here due to several factors, what constitutes a specific Black American identity is going to be highly contentious. European and other immigrants may not have this reticence towards the topic, though, and this could be where a lot of post-bellum mixed children come from in the near future (say a generation out from the TL's present).
I think the most likely possibility, assuming that we don't see a reverse white flight like sparkptz mentioned (though I think this will probably be the case), is that we will have essentially common law marriages operating on a sort of "don't ask, don't tell" basis. It's publicly taboo to acknowledge that Ms. Whatever has cohabitation with one of those people but it will happen regardless. It must be kept in mind that even with federal troops occupying the area, though, that even if they don't choose to take brides - who I would think are honestly going to be the first choice for those women since they might be damnyankees but also many are still white men - they will almost certainly not support 'amalgamationism' either. Sure, some individually may not care, or even view it as a kind of perverse punishment for rebellion, but the rest of the country's white supremacy is not much better than their southern counterparts. They just didn't necessarily think we should have slavery is all.
Interracial marriages, Eric Foner says, were more common than one would expect. Given that catastrophes such as this one are bound to swept away old customs, it may indeed be greater than in OTL. In fact, we could see a Southern United States that looks much more like Dominican Republic or Puerto Rico, with a majority of the population being mixed race. Yet, as you say, the White women will presumably prefer Yankees and White carpetbaggers to Black men - and Northerners too would probably be more comfortable with this than interracial marriage.
63 to 37 is horrendous, I would imagine there will be both significant intermarriage and significant northern migration southward and perhaps more acceptance of polygamy.
However one thing that doesn’t seem to have been mentioned is that in terms of adult male populations, blacks should have majorities in much more states. So a lot of southern states are left with a couple choices:
A) Accept that black people are going to be dominant politically(unlikely)
B) Reduce black political power with racist laws(this should be blocked by the federal government and take multiple decades to actually happen if it does)
C) Try their damnedest to attract immigrants both from the north and from Europe(plausible since immigrants tended to vote democrat but immigration policy is mostly federal). It’d be funny if southern political power on a federal level mostly went to trying to maximize immigration. If there’s a constitutional convention, consider a constitutional right to immigration being a major demand of the south.
D) Give women the right to vote! This evens the scales of racial political power in a very interesting way. It also further splits feminism from abolitionism even more so than Frederick Douglass telling women to wait their turn. Even if there’s no federal push, I could see some of the hardest hit states with female suffrage extremely early.
I think it would be a very interesting reconstruction if federal enforcement of civil rights leads southern whites in a progressive direction on certain issues to retain racial dominance. I suggest waving the wand of authorial power to maximize southern white male causalities just to lean in on this stuff.
Yes, that's a big deal. Once Black people are fully enfranchised the Black males would hopelessly outnumber the White males, meaning that many States would have complete Black domination. Such a prospect is likely to increase resistance to Reconstruction in both North and South. Because this Federal government is unlikely to accept nullification or terrorism, we may indeed end up with a White South that's progressive regarding female suffrage and immigration
for all the wrong reasons.
As I mentioned earlier, there were also federal property taxes in the mix. It was structured poorly but I think it would be reformed rather than eliminated like OTL. And there’s always the chance that the reform comes in the form of exempting improvements but continuing to tax land.
Yes, this expanded National State is bound to be expensive. Republicans during Reconstruction for the most part preferred land taxes, usually exempting improvements and small holdings, as a way to weaken large planters and trying to coax them into selling their lands.
Reminding me that we did have this conversation in this thread at some point, guess some things repeat
Naturally, given that we all know that this TL will end in a Union victory and thorough Reconstruction, most discussions center on the post-war consequences. So we do tend to cyclically come back to the same topics, but it's fine. Maybe, after all, the real Reconstruction is the friends we made along the way.
I’m wondering if anyone would be up for a spinoff showing Europe after the Civil War.
And for the Reconstruction spinoff I was hoping for a story where Lincoln (travelling the world) actually meets Tsar Alexander II.
The men have a long talk. Lincoln admits on some level that he is jealous because all Alexander had to do was declare the serfs liberated and it happened whereas Abe had to fight a war to get it done.
However they also have a long discussion about the merits of democracy vs autocracy. Lincoln may or may not get Alexander to somewhat return to his reforming ways (Alex still makes sure the autocracy has the power but he loosens things up and makes steps towards a duma.)
Am also wondering if the original tsarevich dies. Who knows maybe he wouldn’t be the reactionary hardass Alexander III was
en.m.wikipedia.org
I am fully willing to let anyone write any kind of stories or spin-offs focusing in other parts of the world in my TL. I would just ask to not deviate from what I've written, and to understand that if the spin-off focuses in the future anything it mentions regarding developments I haven't discussed yet is necessarily non-canon. This idea is certainly interesting. The friendship between the Union and Russia is almost comedic, given the cultural and political differences, the future of both countries, and how a democratically elected President and an absolutist Tsar both ended up being Liberators.
Come to think of it, if Sherman captures Savannah in late November 1864, it makes for a good cause for giving thanks on Thanksgiving day. It came to mind after coming across this cartoon by Thomas Nast:
View attachment 871266
Here's another good one:
Good lord those high estimates are horrible, that is World War 1 level percentages dead. That'll leave lasting trauma, and really gives this war a vibe of an almost apocalyptc transformation.
On a lighter note: Once Richmond falls the only remaining concentrations of functioning confederate troops will be in the Trans-Mississippi theatre, under the Kirby Smithdom. I am now imagining Lincoln pointing to Texas on a map and saying to his most ruthless generals:
I need a monstah to clobbah dat dere Kirbeh!
Yes, while not quite Paraguay levels, this is indeed catastrophic for the South. Heck, even the North has suffered terribly.
Kirby's days are counted. He's lucky the Union has bigger fish for now.
You know given how despite his bluster OTL Kirby ended up just giving up I wonder if he might end up doing the same here. I can easily see him seeing the destruction being wrought across the rest of the South and deciding to spare what he can from that. I can just see it now, the combined might of Grant and Sherman about to cross the Mississippi River when Kirby and his army show up and surrender.
We can only pray it happens. Myself especially cause I’m very biased for my state (texas)
I'll be the bloodthirsty loon in the room and pray it does not happen, so that the slavers aren't able to preemptively guard against blacks gaining political and economic power.
I don't think Kirby Smith could do much more than surrender and then escape to Mexico by the end, which could result in Texas being spared. But any State that has suffered a Union march is much more likely to see a successful Reconstruction.
