Russia and Germany as allies in an alternate WW1

Without France, Russia is lacking the massive investments that propelled it from a state in 1790 to a state in 1914. Russia is going to be around 15-20 years behind everyone else industrially. Now I'm sure everybody would love to say Germany would replace those loans, but Germany was busy investing in itself at the time. Financial incentive was one of the reasons Russia didn't pursue the German alliance after Caprivi didn't sign the alliance again when it was up for renewal. So Russia will not mobilize its army fast enough to cover Germany, they are going to take a lot longer then the 6 weeks they took in OTL. Those French loans could also now head to Austria, resulting in a stronger AH, with a better funded military among other things I explained in my own response to this thread you can read. Basically, I think Germany is going to have a really tough start of the war as its outnumbered by Austria and France, who have a serious shot at knocking it out if it goes perfectly for them. But assuming it doesn't, I think Germany would get economically choked within 2 years because Russia in OTL couldn't feed itself, so it sure as hell isnt' feeding Germany too while also being 15-20 years behind. So Germany would starve faster then they did in OTL. Italy shouldn't join the war because they are surrounded by the Franco, British and Austrian navies, they are a peninsula, which means they are going to get bombed to high heaven if they join the war, they also depend on Franco British trade a lot. A stronger Austria(much stronger IMO) should be hold its lines against any balkan enemies and bully Russia until Germany starves and economically collapses.
If Russia cannot get loan they will probably use their money more because imperial family is still rich even Russia know they are backwards they might weaker than otl but it was not that too much different.

If they really need loans they can use it from America or special economic zones for American investors to draw them to Russia. Because if Russia cannot get development from Europe they can still find a way and American is currently not a mortal enemy of Russia.

And Austria need at least 2 million soldiers to defend against Russia and then Germany, Romania, Serbia and Italy they need at least 3 million soilder to defend against them Austria will be overwhelmed because there are not enough soilder to use.
 
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@Bones101 - you don’t have to cede point on economics. @EasternRomanEmpire is *way*overestimating the development gap between the the Russian empire and the Hungarian half of the dual monarchy, Bosnia, and Galicia. It had plenty of developing to do, infrastructure to build and the Habsburg empire as a whole was Europe’s fastest growing economy pre-WWI. There certainly was money to be made there and return on investment. Certainly not *as many* kilometers of railway track were required to be lain down as in Russia, but quite a great deal. Same for telegraph and telephone wire and electrical power transmission lines.
I don't understand why the French and British would want to finance that, the AH empire has what it needs in terms of industry and infrastructure, it's not like Britain and France don't also have less developed regions.
Without France, Russia is lacking the massive investments that propelled it from a state in 1790 to a state in 1914. Russia is going to be around 15-20 years behind everyone else industrially.
That's an exaggeration, in the 1880's/90's it was very different from the state it had been in 1790, the RE may've been backwards but it didn't do nothing, without French loans it still would've industrialized just more slowly.
Now I'm sure everybody would love to say Germany would replace those loans, but Germany was busy investing in itself at the time.
And what makes you say that France and Britain would prefer investing in AH instead of themselves? AH already has industries, a railway network etc. so why would they invest that much money in Hungary?
So Russia will not mobilize its army fast enough to cover Germany, they are going to take a lot longer then the 6 weeks they took in OTL.
Excuse me but it doesn't have to, they only have to fight with the Austrians in Galicia, Germany still has a faster mobilization speed than AH or France so the Austrians are far from able of defeating Germany.
Those French loans could also now head to Austria, resulting in a stronger AH, with a better funded military among other things I explained in my own response to this thread you can read.
First there would be less loans, second I don't see how the military is that much better funded ITTL if most money is spent on developing the Hungarian part of the Habsburg Empire.
Basically, I think Germany is going to have a really tough start of the war as its outnumbered by Austria and France, who have a serious shot at knocking it out if it goes perfectly for them.
That's not really plausible, Germany was also outnumbered IOTL by France and Russia who was stronger than AH IOTL. France still has the plan to charge against German fortifications in A-L which has absolutely no chance at succeeding and meanwhile AH is going to face most of the German army (since the whole point of the Schlieffen Plan is to attack the weaker state).
But assuming it doesn't, I think Germany would get economically choked within 2 years because Russia in OTL couldn't feed itself, so it sure as hell isnt' feeding Germany too while also being 15-20 years behind.
And what about the constant German help which kept AH afloat during the entire war? Russia may be weaker but without serious outside help AH stands no chance to even Germany alone with a French front in the west (and the British are not in a position to reinforce all of AH's fronts), German food stockpiles last until 1918, meanwhile AH also has to fight Russia, Italy, Romania and Serbia, AH stands no chance.
So Germany would starve faster then they did in OTL.
Why? Food stockpiles last until 1918 in Germany, AH didn't supply Germany with food.
Italy shouldn't join the war because they are surrounded by the Franco, British and Austrian navies, they are a peninsula, which means they are going to get bombed to high heaven if they join the war, they also depend on Franco British trade a lot.
Being a peninsula doesn't make navies bomb cities inland, they can bomb the cities on the coast (very risky due to sea mines and of almost no practical use).
A stronger Austria(much stronger IMO) should be hold its lines against any balkan enemies and bully Russia until Germany starves and economically collapses.
I don't understand what makes you think that Russia is a house of cards, AH is no position to bully Russia while fighting on every front, even with a Russia stuck in the 1880's they have more soldiers than AH will ever be able to assemble so even if with high casualties the Russians will advance in AH's territory.
 
I think Germany would get economically choked within 2 years because Russia in OTL couldn't feed itself, so it sure as hell isnt' feeding Germany too while also being 15-20 years behind.
No.
From the 1860s to the outbreak of OTL WW1, Russia was providing a significant share of imports to the global wheat trade.
This economically vital commerce went through the Black Sea, which is why the Russian Empire was so obsessed with controlling the Straits.
Russia failed to feed itself in wartime solely because its railroad-based economy and manpower-intensife agricultural sector failed to cope with the strain of war.
markevichtable1.png

Source.
 
I think the discussion revolves unnecessarily on finance. If A-H is an ally and needs/wants the money, the money shall be granted; diplomacy demands it.
I honestly suspect the real dealbreak is whether Germany/Russia can break A-H, because they are pretty much isolated in this situation. The Ottomans would lean Entente, Italy wouldn't dare, other Balkan places would feel too distant from Russia save for Romania, and with both the Med and the North Sea being Entente lakes, the other bloc's economies would feel the strain and quite likely break.
 
Ok, this makes sense, I'll cede my point on the economics. I still AHs economy should be stronger, but not because of the loans now. Galicia made up 1/3rd of Austria's agricultural output, not Austria-Hungary. Hungary was/is one of the bread baskets of Europe so that agriculture in Galicia isn't really needed, if Vienna wanted to do something like promote polish nationalism under a Habsburg aegis, they could go and develop Galicia to exploit its oil reserves and get a large middle class of polish speakers to boost the economy. But they don't even need polish nationalism, they would likely just develop it for better defenses against Russia.
... sry to say but ... I think you view economics, their possibilities and how they were looked at much too much from late 20th and 21 century point of view. The guys in charge in the timeframe we're talking about came from middle to late 19th century and according economical thinking.
... and fearing.
For them an industrialisation - esp. of poles - wouldn't mean more educated middle class.
They would - and did - see at first masses of proletarian workers running mit red flaggs behind men like Marx or Bauer or Renner.
... not the kind of populace the elites of the time would likely 'trust' in defending them as the ruling class.

...
Its not. If you looked at the rest of what I said on that topic, I said that historians like Christopher Clark(and Alexander Watson) have said that the Austrian system was workable under multiple ministers pre WW1. And had it continued in peacetime, it could have developed into multiple guarantees(guarantees on language and culture and the like which already existed in practice, did not exist officially which bothered a lot of nationalists) for the minorities that would've/should've dealt with any remaining issues with the centralized system. ...
You might have misunderstood the 'critic' here:
the 'centralism" you assume simply wasn't there (as I explained in my former post).​
And it was this 'system' of multiple degrees of autonomy and governing and self-governing and ... whatnot the plethora of differing and decentralized ruling-mechanisms the k.u.k system actually was that Christopher Clark and Alexander Watson refer to.

... those guarantees get pushed forward for whatever reason, ...
what is exactly what @EasternRomanEmpire and me are asking for would be.
Why the 'magic' of closer ties to France and Britain shall forward this?

...
Because the Bohemian language law was never passed, Czech political leaders stopped working with the central government and made parliament essentially useless for the 15 or so years of the Empire because they wouldn't vote on anything without the language law being passed first.
...
But nevertheless the Czech civil servants didn't stop working or there were strikes or boycotts or ... whatever might interrupt daily life. It was rather a self-boykotting of the czech politicians which didn't help them and to the least their cause.
When IOTL war came the Czech units were among the fiercest fighting either the serbians or the russians.
(The notorious 'Czech Legion' composed not only of Czechs but also Slovaks [I didn't came around differtiated numbers of how many czechs and how many slovaks] of fame esp. in the russian civil war had some rather ... 'specific' origin only marginally comming from prewar times and reality of the k.u.k. Empire).

(more later)
 
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@Bones101 - you don’t have to cede point on economics. @EasternRomanEmpire is *way*overestimating the development gap between the the Russian empire and the Hungarian half of the dual monarchy, Bosnia, and Galicia. It had plenty of developing to do, infrastructure to build and the Habsburg empire as a whole was Europe’s fastest growing economy pre-WWI. There certainly was money to be made there and return on investment. Certainly not *as many* kilometers of railway track were required to be lain down as in Russia, but quite a great deal. Same for telegraph and telephone wire and electrical power transmission lines.
... well ... the same is then valid to how Russia would develop with 'only' Germany as its 'friend'.
It would be far from as backwards as @Bones101 tries to frame it and its possible economical relations and possible support to Germany as well as its military infrastructure. There would be also 'investments' into Russias military infrastructure, possibly - given the differing german stance and 'familiarity' with 'russian/polish meddlings' probably more stringent bound to what shall be done (aka less freedom for Russia to do with the money as it wants to). therewith bringing more 'bang-for-the-buck' in whatever sector.
The german-russian trade and intersection regarding differing railroads ...
if there is more traffic I'm rather confident that accordingly sufficient 'change'-systems would be developed and employed at these junctions at the borders.
The german shipbuilding would be more than happy to open up some dependencies at Kronstadt and deliver more and larger ships as they already did IOTL. ... to the 'pleasure' of Tirpitz seeing these german yards earning some extra marks helping him to cut their profit margins in building for him aside the effect of enlarging shipbuildingcapacity.

Therefore :
The russian economy and industrial performance would NOT be 20-30 years behind.​
 
I have been doing some reading and research on the alliance structure pre-WW1 .

The League of Three Emperors was a short lived alliance between Germany, Austria-Hungary and Russia. It was tried twice by Bismark but fell apart each time because of Balkans, specifically Russia and Austria's competing interest in the region.

In OTL Germany went with Austria, but I got to thinking what the war would look like had they gone with Russia instead.

Russia seams to be the stronger Ally (with or without hindsight). Russia could provide food to Germany against a possible British blockade.

Austria-Hungary is likely driven into the arms of France (who is looking for allies to go against Germany). Given OTL, I don't see that working out great for them. Should a war break out I could certainly see Germany seeking annexation of the Austrian part.

Would a Germany-Russian alliance work in this period? Would it have won an alternate conflict around our WWI?

In terms of Alliances I would think the most likely would be France, UK, AH, v. Russia, Germany, Italy with the balkan countries splitting between both.
It may have been mentioned but France had invested heavily in Russia both in government level loans and private shares etc by civilians and this was gradually bringing the Russian industry's up to a western European standard

Of course all of that would be lost due to the revolution but before that Russia and France were very closely tied financially to the point of virtual dependency by Russia on France.

Also various agreements and alliances from the 1880s had been agreed between the 2 nations following Germanys victory over France in 1871 and Germanys subsequent increase in military and industry strength up to 1914.

So there is a lot to unpick and change before the pendulum swings from Russian being Pro France to becoming Pro Germany.
 
...
Hate to break it to you, but I don't think the army is incompetent, Potioreck is responsible for the failures early on as he personally asked Franz Joseph for B staffel so he could go on a revenge trip for FF in Serbia, since B staffel wasn't in Galicia as the Austrian war plan for Russia+Balkans said it should be, A staffel was severely outnumbered and outgunned, and when B staffel was finally redirected to Galicia, it had already taken serious damage in Serbia because it was led by Potioreck, and just got caught up in A staffels retreat. ...
Something I wanted alread comment on when you said this
... in OTL where Franz Joseph authorized Potioreck to use B staffel for Serbia, instead of giving it to Conrad for Russia, for reasons I can only assume...
as I think you assume some important facts wrong.
Staffel B was right from the start ordered by Conrad - Potiorek actually and officially was suborcinated to him - to attack Serbia from the banks of the Save and Danube as it did IOTL.
... esp as Conrad WAS.THE.SUPREME chief of staff for all military actions. Franz Joseph wasn't more than the nominal head of the army but had not or rather did not - out of his own understanding NOT being able to cope acrtual war fare anymore (contrary to some other austrian overall 'leader')- much of a say regarding operations.
It was Conrad and Conrad alone who let the B-Staffel deploy against Serbia right from the beginning.
You're right - in a sense - that it was Potioreks direct retrograd access to Franz Josephs internals that allowed him to held 31st and 32sn k.u.k Inf.Divs of IV. Corps and 29th k.u.k. Inf.Div of IX. Corps of Second Army of B-Staffel somewhat a few days longer from their embarkation towards Galicia from the serbian theatre as planned by Conrad. For the sake of not alienating the gerontocrat (he was hoping would enoble him high enough to eventually marry his already married consort) the latter agreed.These troops were sent to Galicia nevertheless.

...
Yes, they should go on the offensive because the backwards Russia without any loans is going to take a damn long time to get any good number of troops to the frontline. Definitely longer then the 6 weeks in OTL, ...
I would truly appreciate you would inform yourself a bit better on the realities of OTL.
The russian army (russian 1st and 2nd Armies) was IOTL up to advance to and attack the german border in a fortnights time at 14th August"​
and just a week later to advance against the austrian border at the San (russian 3rd and 5th armies).​
... only the austrian 1st and 4th armies had 'bested' them and were advancing earlier leading to the austrian tactical victories of Kranik and Komarov.​
Then it was to the IMO largest degree the abysmal performance of austrain 3rd armys commander Brudermann that blocked Dankl and Auffenberg from properly exploiting said victories.
... as well as unrealistic orders from far away Conrad who had no idea or simly didn't care what the won battles had costed the soldiers on the ground.
... And I don't think Germany is mobilizing faster then AH, ...
... you do know that - maybe aside the BEF troops as professional 'mercenaries' who were 'on' all the time - the german army was the fastest mobilising as well as deploying army of the world ?
... I'd be damned if AH doesn't invest in some way to mobilize as fast as Germany, building more railroads helps for sure, their system was the second largest in Europe in OTL not counting Russia, but it wasn't as dense as Germanys, and I can definitely see them making it denser and working on army organization to provide for a larger and quicker mobilization time. ...
... and such mobilising had rather few to do with railroads (which would be needed for deployment) but with organisation. That was the edge the germans had over every other army in 1914 (and already earlier.
This is also valid for the russian army. It were the new organisational build up that was improving russian mobilisation since 1905. The building od railroads was important for where and how fast to deploy these mobilised troops.
Maybe Russia isn't stuck in 1880 in this TL, but they are definitely 20 or so years behind.
... as said : simply no, neither regarding their mobilisation system nor their economy.


However ...
The deployment of the russian armies against Austria IOTL took place on raillines already there for a loong time. The loans given by esp. the french goverment were NOT invested in from them wished rails towards the german/silesian border but rather for innerrussian tracks helping to bring russian agricultiral product towards shipping harbours (to the delight of the british populace who then 'enjoyed' russian/ukrainina grain in their bread).
The lines used IOTL would be there ITTL as well.
The war planning of the russians would have been differing as well and russian 1st and 2nd Army equivalents would likely start from the Ivangorod at the Vistula or across the Vistula opposite of Cracow. The austrian would have been tactical/operational in an even worse position as ITOL.
... not to forget the occasional german army of armydetachment of 2 to maybe 4 divisons attacking in the Alps and/or into Bohemia or Moravia.
And once again @EasternRomanEmpire is completly right:
an austrain occupation of Congress-Poland against Germany and Russia is ... a dream only and farthest from possible reality.​
 
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don't understand why the French and British would want to finance that, the AH empire has what it needs in terms of industry and infrastructure, it's not like Britain and France don't also have less developed regions.
British and France were the biggest capital exporters before 1914 and had loads of surplus capital sitting around. Germany did not become a major capital exporter until the late 1890s, and its total capital exports by 1913 were only half of France’s number, so there would be much less finance available to Russia.

As for how much investments A-H would have received, it would have been at least the same as the amount it got from Germany IOTL (hint: that amount was not small, though far less than what Russia received from France IOTL).

AH also has to fight Russia, Italy, Romania and Serbia, AH stands no chance.
Don’t forget that:
1) IOTL Italy and Austria were in the same Alliance at some point. So, even an Entente Italy would not be out of window.
2) Italy was heavily dependent on British coal imports.
 
Leading to the loss of 1 million men and Austria's best officers. This was not the army being incompetent, this was a disaster brought about by one guy who does not represent the entire general staff.
1 million men is what Austria lost on the frontlines in ENTIRE war (not counting those who died in hospitals, as POWs, disappeared etc.), not in 1914.
Not losing in Galicia in 1914 is far from solving the officers problem, with such a big expansion of the army in such a short amount of time you have to put unexperienced officers and many in the general staff repeated what was done in Galicia in 1914, explain why they failed to conquer Serbia (despite directing there more troops than they should've)? Why they lost half of their troops on the Eastern Front in the Brusilov Offensive?
Yeah lets look at the Brusilov offensive. Here, Austria-Hungary was outnumbered around 2:1, fighting the best general the Russians had, and they were nearing the limits on their manpower while Russia had men for days.
According to the wiki:
Strength
Initial: 40+ infantry divisions (573,000 men)
15 cavalry divisions (60,000 men)
Overall:
Russian Empire 1,732,000 in 61 divisions
Initial:
39 infantry divisions (450,000 men)
10 cavalry divisions (30,000 men)[2]
Overall:
2,500,000 in 54 Austrian divisions and 24 German divisions[1]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brusilov_offensive#cite_note-4


At the beginning the Austrians were outnumbered 1.31875:1 , I'm far from an expert but from what I know you usually need to outnumber the defender 3:1 to have a successful attack.
Their soldiers probably ate turnips for breakfast too. Yup this offensive is totally representative of the quality of the army. I already explained how Galicia was lost.
It shows the absolute inadequacy of the high ranking officers in the Austro-Hungarian army, who are there only because of their high social status rather than their quality in military affairs. A problem that is far from solved in your TL.
And no, they did lose 1,000,000 men in 1914. Wikipedia counts 1.4 million dead on the military side, 1.7-2 million dead in total, and 3.6 million military wounded.
According to Wikipedia:
By the end of September 1916 [...] the Austrian armies took heavy losses (about 1 million men) and never recovered.
According to
Estimates of the total losses of the Austro-Hungarian armed forces range from 1.1 to 1.2 million in addition to 450,000 deceased prisoners of war and 300,000 soldiers who stayed missed after war. The number of direct and indirect civilian losses is completely unknown. The reduction of population in East Galicia between 1910 (last Austrian census) and 1921 (first Polish census) hints at direct civilian losses on the Eastern Front. Indirect losses for Austria-Hungary can be estimated at 460,000 caused by famine, cold, and epidemics (the Spanish flu additionally caused 250,000 victims). The effects of First World War were lingering: especially in the Austrian Republic, undernourishment and poverty remained a problem.
Yes, they should go on the offensive because the backwards Russia without any loans is going to take a damn long time to get any good number of troops to the frontline.
A map of the railroad network in 1900:
800px-Brockhaus_and_Efron_Encyclopedic_Dictionary_b54_360-1.jpg

The RE seems completely unable to move any troops to defend Poland against the invading Austro-Hungarian armies.
So no, Germany "even half the speed of OTL has more than enough troops to beat AH".
I never said Germany going half speed, Germany is the same Germany as IOTL: I was saying the Russians having half the troops they have IOTL is enough to outnumber the Austro-Hungarians very badly.
It is not out of the realm of reason, I think likely even, that France and AH don't come up with their own Schlieffen plan to beat Germany before Russia mobilizes, they'll have longer then 6 weeks this TL too.
Every state in Europe expected the war to end by Christmas with them on the winning side, OTL showed that the French offensives in Alsace are a complete failure and that the AH are not able to defeat their enemies quickly, for the record they didn't manage to beat Serbia when they sent on that front more troops than they should've.
And I don't think Germany is mobilizing faster then AH, I'd be damned if AH doesn't invest in some way to mobilize as fast as Germany, building more railroads helps for sure, their system was the second largest in Europe in OTL not counting Russia, but it wasn't as dense as Germanys, and I can definitely see them making it denser and working on army organization to provide for a larger and quicker mobilization time.
Germany had a very fast mobilization as shown by OTL, no state in Europe came close to them.
Maybe Russia isn't stuck in 1880 in this TL, but they are definitely 20 or so years behind. The devastation AH suffered to modern artillery in OTL will happen to Russia. And even if they don't occupy Poland, Russia still can't feed Germany, even if they were as industrialized as OTL, Russia still can't do it.
Germany showed IOTL that they can last until early 1918 without any extra food. And Russia was always trying to catch up, the lack of French subsidies makes them slower in that but not some kind of backward state that has a non-existent military.
This is a fair point, but it ignores other butterflies and doesn't really reflect why Serbia broke with AH. Serbia broke because Austria treated them like absolute shit, which made the ruling dynasty at the time very unpopular, leading to them being overthrown, etc.
And why does AH not treat Serbia like shit ITTL?
If Austria is isolated, they don't want to lose their only ally in balkans, hence I can see them treating Serbia better, like a partner instead of a total puppet(emphasis on total).
They're not isolated since they still have allies, don't see why they would treat Serbia better.
If that happens, it makes any removal of the pro Habsburg dynasty much less likely, and continuing on the track of AH treats Serbia better, it would make a lot of sense that they direct Serbian nationalism towards Macedonia, and they could work out an arrangement for Bosnia too.
The Ottomans are likely to join the anti-Russian camp which means Serbia is on the opposite side of AH.
And what arrangement is there with Bosnia? The Habsburgs are going to retreat? The Serbians are going to give up?
What led to Serbian opinion of AH going from bad to violent after the dynasty overthrow was the annexation of Bosnia, if Austria treats them better, directs nationalism at the Balkans, and figures out an arrangement for Bosnia(Serbian annexation but Austrian military occupation should make both states happy as Austria just wanted it to protect croatia.
First what prevents AH from annexing Bosnia ITTL?
Second how in hell the Serbs agree that a territory which is now under their control be under Austrian occupation? The whole point of getting Bosnia is still not achieved.
Its not just the coast too, any long range naval gun would be more then capable of raining hellfire on the inner citys as well.
Unless you change the laws of physics, there's no way in hell ships can bombard cities inland, guns can only fire a few km; they can't bombard Rome from the seas (even bombarding coastal cities is risky due to sea mines).
How is Italy going to mobilize when its northern rail system is destroyed by bombardment?
Physically impossible for navies to do this.
In OTL Austrias navy was able to seriously damage Italian infrastructure as they had been expecting a declaration of war and the navy was in position to bomb Italy, this significantly slowed Italian mobilization and was a massive factor as to Austria surviving the initial offensives by Italy. So yeah, Italy is a no go. Only a suicidal government is going to war.
Manfredona and Ancona are coastal cities, and the damage to them was pretty much irrelevant.
Thats fine, the military of Germany hadn't fought in 50 years either and they did just fine, that also applies to France and Britain. German commanders were also sons of nobility. And I already explained why AHs commanders aren't so incompetent. The industrial heartland isn't going anywhere either.
No, Germany, France and Britain fought colonial conflicts so they weren't completely inactive unlike AH.
British and France were the biggest capital exporters before 1914 and had loads of surplus capital sitting around. Germany did not become a major capital exporter until the late 1890s, and its total capital exports by 1913 were only half of France’s number, so there would be much less finance available to Russia.

As for how much investments A-H would have received, it would have been at least the same as the amount it got from Germany IOTL (hint: that amount was not small, though far less than what Russia received from France IOTL).
I do not doubt they would have a little bit more investments than OTL, I'm certain that what the French and British will give to AH is unable to transform them from a weak state constantly reliant on Germany to the n.1 military power in Europe who took Congress Poland in a few weeks and knocked Germany out of the war.
Don’t forget that:
1) IOTL Italy and Austria were in the same Alliance at some point. So, even an Entente Italy would not be out of window.
What would Italy gain? Who are they going to fight?
2) Italy was heavily dependent on British coal imports.
Doesn't save the Austro-Hungarians, their armies existing is enough to divert a lot of troops.
 
No.
From the 1860s to the outbreak of OTL WW1, Russia was providing a significant share of imports to the global wheat trade.
This economically vital commerce went through the Black Sea, which is why the Russian Empire was so obsessed with controlling the Straits.
Russia failed to feed itself in wartime solely because its railroad-based economy and manpower-intensife agricultural sector failed to cope with the strain of war.
markevichtable1.png

Source.
And why would that change here? Russia is less developed in this TL, why wouldn't they fail to feed themselves and Germany?
 
I don't understand why the French and British would want to finance that, the AH empire has what it needs in terms of industry and infrastructure, it's not like Britain and France don't also have less developed regions.

That's an exaggeration, in the 1880's/90's it was very different from the state it had been in 1790, the RE may've been backwards but it didn't do nothing, without French loans it still would've industrialized just more slowly.

And what makes you say that France and Britain would prefer investing in AH instead of themselves? AH already has industries, a railway network etc. so why would they invest that much money in Hungary?

Excuse me but it doesn't have to, they only have to fight with the Austrians in Galicia, Germany still has a faster mobilization speed than AH or France so the Austrians are far from able of defeating Germany.

First there would be less loans, second I don't see how the military is that much better funded ITTL if most money is spent on developing the Hungarian part of the Habsburg Empire.

That's not really plausible, Germany was also outnumbered IOTL by France and Russia who was stronger than AH IOTL. France still has the plan to charge against German fortifications in A-L which has absolutely no chance at succeeding and meanwhile AH is going to face most of the German army (since the whole point of the Schlieffen Plan is to attack the weaker state).

And what about the constant German help which kept AH afloat during the entire war? Russia may be weaker but without serious outside help AH stands no chance to even Germany alone with a French front in the west (and the British are not in a position to reinforce all of AH's fronts), German food stockpiles last until 1918, meanwhile AH also has to fight Russia, Italy, Romania and Serbia, AH stands no chance.

Why? Food stockpiles last until 1918 in Germany, AH didn't supply Germany with food.

Being a peninsula doesn't make navies bomb cities inland, they can bomb the cities on the coast (very risky due to sea mines and of almost no practical use).

I don't understand what makes you think that Russia is a house of cards, AH is no position to bully Russia while fighting on every front, even with a Russia stuck in the 1880's they have more soldiers than AH will ever be able to assemble so even if with high casualties the Russians will advance in AH's territory.
I don't understand why the French and British would want to finance that, the AH empire has what it needs in terms of industry and infrastructure, it's not like Britain and France don't also have less developed regions.
Because diplomacy demands it. France is isolated and if they don't give AH the loans it wants then they are at risk at losing them to any German offer. The Austro-Hungarian empire does not have what it needs in terms of industry and infrastructure. Not in Hungary which is barely industrialized.
That's an exaggeration, in the 1880's/90's it was very different from the state it had been in 1790, the RE may've been backwards but it didn't do nothing, without French loans it still would've industrialized just more slowly.
Yes obviously its an exaggeration, but without Franco British loans Russia would not have had the massive industrial boom they had in OTL. They would be 10-15 years behind. Thats what industrializing more slowly means.
And what makes you say that France and Britain would prefer investing in AH instead of themselves? AH already has industries, a railway network etc. so why would they invest that much money in Hungary?
Along with my already stated diplomacy reason, new markets as well. And industrial urbanized Hungary is a new market for Franco British goods. And they can't exactly make one of their opponents, Russia, one of their biggest markets in this TL.
Excuse me but it doesn't have to, they only have to fight with the Austrians in Galicia, Germany still has a faster mobilization speed than AH or France so the Austrians are far from able of defeating Germany.
And how are they going to fight the Austrians in Galicia without mobilizing a large army first? I know they won't have no men in Galicia, but for the first 6+ weeks it shouldn't be enough to draw major reserves their way. Just like how for the first 6+ weeks in the war in OTL their weren't major Russian armies attracting German reserves away from the French offensive.
First there would be less loans, second I don't see how the military is that much better funded ITTL if most money is spent on developing the Hungarian part of the Habsburg Empire.
To start, AH had the money in OTL to pay for a large and modern army, they couldn't because Hungary wouldn't approve budget increases. Who said most money is being spent on developing Hungary? That's not how industrialization works? No state while in the middle of the industrial revolution needed to cut military spending to focus on developing their country. Russia while receiving massive loans in OTL was able to fund an army of 1 million standing men by 1913. AH could've afforded a large army in OTL, and I do not see them not being able to afford it in this timeline. Thanks to the expected industrial boom in Hungary the state should have more money thanks to the larger middle class and tax revenues that come with having a more industrialized country.
That's not really plausible, Germany was also outnumbered IOTL by France and Russia who was stronger than AH IOTL. France still has the plan to charge against German fortifications in A-L which has absolutely no chance at succeeding and meanwhile AH is going to face most of the German army (since the whole point of the Schlieffen Plan is to attack the weaker state).
Germany was outnumbered but Russia focused their initial offensives once mobilized against AH not Germany. AH wouldn't be facing most of the German army. They wouldn't be the weaker state here for one, and secondly attacking France is still easier. Once the Germans pass Belgium its mostly flat lands till Paris, AH though? They'd have to cross the Bohemian mountains, or the alps, there are many more chokepoints attacking AH then France. AH is very mountainous. The outnumbered threat would be more real here because AH won't be focusing the majority of its army somewhere else like Russia did in OTL. France very well could get past AL defenses since Germany would have to split their army to defend/attempt an offensive against AH.
And what about the constant German help which kept AH afloat during the entire war? Russia may be weaker but without serious outside help AH stands no chance to even Germany alone with a French front in the west (and the British are not in a position to reinforce all of AH's fronts), German food stockpiles last until 1918, meanwhile AH also has to fight Russia, Italy, Romania and Serbia, AH stands no chance.
And why would buffed AH need constant support? I don't see any reason why they shouldn't be able to hold a front against Germany when likely less then half the Germany army will be facing them. German food stockpiles do not last until 1918. Germany WAS importing food from AH and other states. Hungary sold all of its excess grain to Germany, Romania until 1916 was supplying Germany with grain, and then Germany was extracting everything it could from its occupied territories in Russia and France. If Germany had food stockpiles to last till 1918 then why were Germans eating Turnips in 1917? Food was a constant concern from 1917 onwards. And in TTL Germany doesn't have access to Hungarian grain, Romanian grain, the grain from the occupied French lands because they shouldn't be able to occupy that land here, or Russian grain because like I keep saying Russia couldn't feed itself, it can't feed Germany either.
I don't understand what makes you think that Russia is a house of cards, AH is no position to bully Russia while fighting on every front, even with a Russia stuck in the 1880's they have more soldiers than AH will ever be able to assemble so even if with high casualties the Russians will advance in AH's territory.
Maybe the fact that they were in OTL? I don't see Russia advancing into AH's territory, I highly doubt this poorer, less industrialized Russia has modern artillery, if they don't, they should be suffering the same devastation that AH suffered in OTL when it faced modern artillery in Galicia in OTL. I can't see how Russia somehow wins a battle of movement against a modern army. And even if you think Italy being surrounded by the 3 navies isn't enough to not have it join the war, the fact that its economy is dependent on Franco British trade will. If they join the war, every Italian will freeze in November.
 
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And how are they going to fight the Austrians in Galicia without mobilizing a large army first? I know they won't have no men in Galicia, but for the first 6+ weeks it shouldn't be enough to draw major reserves their way. Just like how for the first 6+ weeks in the war in OTL their weren't major Russian armies attracting German reserves away from the French offensive.
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... than you for ignoring me:
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I would truly appreciate you would inform yourself a bit better on the realities of OTL.
The russian army (russian 1st and 2nd Armies) was IOTL up to advance to and attack the german border in a fortnights time at 14th August"​
and just a week later to advance against the austrian border at the San (russian 3rd and 5th armies).​
...

... you do know that - maybe aside the BEF troops as professional 'mercenaries' who were 'on' all the time - the german army was the fastest mobilising as well as deploying army of the world ?

... and such mobilising had rather few to do with railroads (which would be needed for deployment) but with organisation. That was the edge the germans had over every other army in 1914 (and already earlier.
This is also valid for the russian army. It were the new organisational build up that was improving russian mobilisation since 1905. The building od railroads was important for where and how fast to deploy these mobilised troops.
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... but you're welcome to teach me different if you can provide some source(s) refuting recorded history.

... If they join the war, every Italian will freeze in November.
... yeah ... good ole' coal depenmdency of Italy ...
Pls let me refer to my recent comment regarding this theme (for the felt umpteenth time) :
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Regarding coal ... not for the first time (and probably not the last, myths never die ... ) I would like you to have a look here for the amount of coal eventually available and here for its transportation possibilities to Italy (the other often tried counterargument against german coal-support to Italy).
 
I think the discussion revolves unnecessarily on finance. If A-H is an ally and needs/wants the money, the money shall be granted; diplomacy demands it.
The financed Russia because it was an urgent need, AH doesn't have the urgent need of industrializing unlike Russia, so I don't see why they would lend as much money as they did to Russia.
I honestly suspect the real dealbreak is whether Germany/Russia can break A-H, because they are pretty much isolated in this situation.
Really AH has no chance, Germany alone would probably be able to break AH while fending off any attempts at incursion from Alsace by the French (since the idea of the Schlieffen Plan was to attack the weaker one, defeat it and defeat the stronger one). Once AH collapses (or starts to) the Entente is in a bad spot, Germany is more than capable at launching decisive offensives against them at this point and they can use harvests taken from AH to feed themselves.
The Ottomans would lean Entente, Italy wouldn't dare, other Balkan places would feel too distant from Russia save for Romania, and with both the Med and the North Sea being Entente lakes, the other bloc's economies would feel the strain and quite likely break.
Why would the Balkans not do this? IOTL Serbia was alone on its front and Montenegro had no problems joining it, these two have a reason to join Russia just as Romania does.
Because diplomacy demands it. France is isolated and if they don't give AH the loans it wants then they are at risk at losing them to any German offer. The Austro-Hungarian empire does not have what it needs in terms of industry and infrastructure. Not in Hungary which is barely industrialized.
Russia never demanded loans as a pre-condition for the alliance. AH is isolated itself since their only benefactor (Germany) has abandoned them in favor of Russia, if they don't find allies quickly they are in danger, and their ambitions in the Balkans are dead without German help. AH needs and alliance as much as France does.
The Austro-Hungarian Empire has enough industry and infrastructure, unlike Russia they aren't lagging behind; the Austrian part of the Empire is enough to support a war effort (as shown by OTL WW1 they had enough industry to arm their soldiers).
Along with my already stated diplomacy reason, new markets as well. And industrial urbanized Hungary is a new market for Franco British goods. And they can't exactly make one of their opponents, Russia, one of their biggest markets in this TL.
The kind of loans France and Britain gave to Russia were not made due to economic but rather political considerations, as I've already explained there is no political reason to give AH loans so there is going to be very little interest in giving anything close to the amounts of loans they gave to Russia IOTL.
And how are they going to fight the Austrians in Galicia without mobilizing a large army first? I know they won't have no men in Galicia, but for the first 6+ weeks it shouldn't be enough to draw major reserves their way. Just like how for the first 6+ weeks in the war in OTL their weren't major Russian armies attracting German reserves away from the French offensive.
The Russians are more than capable of mobilizing large armies and moving them, and the Russians had a standing army of 1.4 million soldiers + reserves = 5.9 million men. 5m troops were mobilized IOTL in 1914, let's say Russia has half the speed of OTL: it still has 2.5 m troops fighting against only AH who also has to care about the German front and potentially Italy, Romania, Montenegro and Serbia.
Saying that the Russians are unable to do anything at the beginning of the war is ridiculous.
And the Battle of Tannenberg happened one month after the start of ww1.
To start, AH had the money in OTL to pay for a large and modern army, they couldn't because Hungary wouldn't approve budget increases.
And why do they accept ITTL?
Who said most money is being spent on developing Hungary? That's not how industrialization works?
If they're putting themselves in debt to develop Hungary then they quite certainly are spending a lot of money.
No state while in the middle of the industrial revolution needed to cut military spending to focus on developing their country.
They didn't increase the military budget in the way you're envisioning it either, spending a lot of money to develop Hungary and develop a larger army need a lot of money so unless they do budget cuts on one of the two, it will put a strain on state finances.
Russia while receiving massive loans in OTL was able to fund an army of 1 million standing men by 1913. AH could've afforded a large army in OTL, and I do not see them not being able to afford it in this timeline. Thanks to the expected industrial boom in Hungary the state should have more money thanks to the larger middle class and tax revenues that come with having a more industrialized country.
Russia has 125 million people, 1 million standing army is what to AH is an army 400k men, which is precisely what they had IOTL. They're going to spend more money on developing Hungary than in revenues at the beginning, and then there is the question whether the Habsburgs wanted this.
AH wouldn't be facing most of the German army.
Why not? I already explained that the whole point of the Schlieffen plan was to attack the weaker one first to knock it out of the war, which by all means is AH: the Germans would try to knock out AH out of the war quickly and then go on to defeat the French.
They wouldn't be the weaker state here for one, and secondly attacking France is still easier.
Once the Germans pass Belgium its mostly flat lands till Paris, AH though? They'd have to cross the Bohemian mountains, or the alps, there are many more chokepoints attacking AH then France. AH is very mountainous.
So you're saying me that it's easier to invade Belgium and go all the way to Paris with an extremely risky plan that needs everything to be exactly on schedule is easier than just attacking AH?
The outnumbered threat would be more real here because AH won't be focusing the majority of its army somewhere else like Russia did in OTL. France very well could get past AL defenses since Germany would have to split their army to defend/attempt an offensive against AH.
AH would have to fight both Germany and Russia which is beyond them, even half of the German army would be more than enough to inflict serious defeat on them.
As for the French succeeding in Alsace, saying that it's ASB would be an understatement. The Germans really had almost no forces defending the border there, it's simply that charging against the enemy lines like the French did is not something that works in WW1, which is why it failed.
And why would buffed AH need constant support? I don't see any reason why they shouldn't be able to hold a front against Germany when likely less then half the Germany army will be facing them.
Because anything close to OTL army is uncapable of stopping Russian troops and conduct an invasion of Serbia? Or at fending off a secondary offensive by the Russians (with the Germans easily stopping the main one)? Because they were constantly reliant on Germany not to collapse their front with Russia?
The Germans have a far better army than the AH be it in leadership or equipment, half of it (and there will be more than half of it) is more than enough to make big gains against AH and that's not talking about the facts that you still need to fight off millions of Russian soldiers coming at you in Galicia, no matter how backward they may be they still need a lot of troops to stop them.
Germany WAS importing food from AH and other states. Hungary sold all of its excess grain to Germany, Romania until 1916 was supplying Germany with grain, and then Germany was extracting everything it could from its occupied territories in Russia and France. If Germany had food stockpiles to last till 1918 then why were Germans eating Turnips in 1917? Food was a constant concern from 1917 onwards. And in TTL Germany doesn't have access to Hungarian grain, Romanian grain, the grain from the occupied French lands because they shouldn't be able to occupy that land here, or Russian grain because like I keep saying Russia couldn't feed itself, it can't feed Germany either.
My prediction is that the Russo-German alliance will occupy most of AH land at some point, anyways yes Romania was useful but the end of the food stockpile is not going to end after two years, it's finishing at worst in late 1917 which is more than enough time to beat AH badly.
Maybe the fact that they were in OTL?
They weren't, despite having on of the most idiotic leaders of the 20th century and repeatedly making big mistakes, the Russians defeated the AH a number of times and kept German troops busy for the entire war. They only were completely lost once the Provisional Government took over and made big mistakes, allowing for the Bolsheviks to come to power and they then only were beaten by the Germans (ignoring the fact that the Bolsheviks purposefully demobilized the army themselves which made Operation Faustschlag possible). A house of cards would've been destroyed like Romania was IOTL.
I don't see Russia advancing into AH's territory, I highly doubt this poorer, less industrialized Russia has modern artillery, if they don't, they should be suffering the same devastation that AH suffered in OTL when it faced modern artillery in Galicia in OTL.
Like Russia is completely unable at producing modern artillery because they don't have French loans?
Modern artillery wasn't really a problem for the Russians according to this source.
I can't see how Russia somehow wins a battle of movement against a modern army.
For God's sake the Russians aren't going to be backwards so much so that they're going to always lose to the "modern Austro-Hungarian army", for a matter of fact the AH army had proportionately less guns than the Russians and the rifles they used in WW1 were completely independent from French loans, the Mosin exists anyways.
If they join the war, every Italian will freeze in November.
Coal was mainly used for industries, most Italians lived in the countryside and used this to not freeze in winter:
R.68b7a97ad452c3c063b03a21b54c5b64
 
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The financed Russia because it was an urgent need, AH doesn't have the urgent need of industrializing unlike Russia, so I don't see why they would lend as much money as they did to Russia.

Really AH has no chance, Germany alone would probably be able to break AH while fending off any attempts at incursion from Alsace by the French (since the idea of the Schlieffen Plan was to attack the weaker one, defeat it and defeat the stronger one). Once AH collapses (or starts to) the Entente is in a bad spot, Germany is more than capable at launching decisive offensives against them at this point and they can use harvests taken from AH to feed themselves.

Why would the Balkans not do this? IOTL Serbia was alone on its front and Montenegro had no problems joining it, these two have a reason to join Russia just as Romania does.
Because their geopolitical ally needs it, simple as that. AH also had a large population and the potential to estabilish significant economic growth, so there also is some incentive.
I think you're making it far easier than it is, the Austrian-German border is much longer than the German-Russian border was and oftentimes, more defensible. Even if the Schlieffen Plan survives (big if), it's bound to have changes. Yes, AH can be taken down, my question is whether it's that easy to strike deep and reach something worthwhile. The only decently close targets are the obvious one, Wien, and Prague.
As for the Balkans - Bulgaria would want to guard itself from its neighbors, Greece too, and the Ottomans are likely gointg Entente in this scenario, I'd say.
 
Because their geopolitical ally needs it, simple as that.
OTL doesn't seem to suggest like the Habsburgs really wanted to develop Hungary (if someone can say that Hungarians live like in the Middle Ages it doesn't seem like they were trying to develop the region).
AH also had a large population
8 millions more than France, what a large population.
and the potential to estabilish significant economic growth, so there also is some incentive.
But why give the same amount as Russia who has 3 times more population than AH? And much more territory? And is much more backwards?
I think you're making it far easier than it is, the Austrian-German border is much longer than the German-Russian border was and oftentimes, more defensible.
Yeah, but OTL shows that minimal forces are needed to defeat the French, so why not gang up on the Austro-Hungarians? It's not like they're militarily capable of opposing the Russian and (most of the) German war machine.
As for the Balkans - Bulgaria would want to guard itself from its neighbors, Greece too, and the Ottomans are likely gointg Entente in this scenario, I'd say.
Why not all go against the Ottomans once they join?
 
Austria and Hungary giving minorities more right to unite the Empire is almost impossible because if Austria do it Hungary will reject it very strongly because for them giving minorities more right will weaken their position.

And all of the minorities are want to join their related nations like Serbs, Italian, Romanian, poles, Ukrainian and so on Austria Empire is too divided and they have too paranoid to give minorities more right.
 
No amount of investment will change that the dual monarchy will not willingly go to war against both Germany and Russia. It will not be seen as a useful ally by France because Austria-Hungary is completely indefensible (they can't win an industrial war where Bohemia gets occupied/pillaged) in a war against Germany and Russia. The Habsburg foreign policy would be to avoid such a war.
 
And why would that change here? Russia is less developed in this TL, why wouldn't they fail to feed themselves and Germany?
Because their key industrial and agricultural land areas would not be occupied, massive amount of rolling stock would not be lost, there is no Caucasus front to support, and the smaller frontage against Austria-Hungary means a smaller wartime army = more men left at home for agricultural work.
 
The financed Russia because it was an urgent need, AH doesn't have the urgent need of industrializing unlike Russia, so I don't see why they would lend as much money as they did to Russia.

Really AH has no chance, Germany alone would probably be able to break AH while fending off any attempts at incursion from Alsace by the French (since the idea of the Schlieffen Plan was to attack the weaker one, defeat it and defeat the stronger one). Once AH collapses (or starts to) the Entente is in a bad spot, Germany is more than capable at launching decisive offensives against them at this point and they can use harvests taken from AH to feed themselves.

Why would the Balkans not do this? IOTL Serbia was alone on its front and Montenegro had no problems joining it, these two have a reason to join Russia just as Romania does.

Russia never demanded loans as a pre-condition for the alliance. AH is isolated itself since their only benefactor (Germany) has abandoned them in favor of Russia, if they don't find allies quickly they are in danger, and their ambitions in the Balkans are dead without German help. AH needs and alliance as much as France does.
The Austro-Hungarian Empire has enough industry and infrastructure, unlike Russia they aren't lagging behind; the Austrian part of the Empire is enough to support a war effort (as shown by OTL WW1 they had enough industry to arm their soldiers).

The kind of loans France and Britain gave to Russia were not made due to economic but rather political considerations, as I've already explained there is no political reason to give AH loans so there is going to be very little interest in giving anything close to the amounts of loans they gave to Russia IOTL.

The Russians are more than capable of mobilizing large armies and moving them, and the Russians had a standing army of 1.4 million soldiers + reserves = 5.9 million men. 5m troops were mobilized IOTL in 1914, let's say Russia has half the speed of OTL: it still has 2.5 m troops fighting against only AH who also has to care about the German front and potentially Italy, Romania, Montenegro and Serbia.
Saying that the Russians are unable to do anything at the beginning of the war is ridiculous.
And the Battle of Tannenberg happened one month after the start of ww1.

And why do they accept ITTL?

If they're putting themselves in debt to develop Hungary then they quite certainly are spending a lot of money.

They didn't increase the military budget in the way you're envisioning it either, spending a lot of money to develop Hungary and develop a larger army need a lot of money so unless they do budget cuts on one of the two, it will put a strain on state finances.

Russia has 125 million people, 1 million standing army is what to AH is an army 400k men, which is precisely what they had IOTL. They're going to spend more money on developing Hungary than in revenues at the beginning, and then there is the question whether the Habsburgs wanted this.

Why not? I already explained that the whole point of the Schlieffen plan was to attack the weaker one first to knock it out of the war, which by all means is AH: the Germans would try to knock out AH out of the war quickly and then go on to defeat the French.


So you're saying me that it's easier to invade Belgium and go all the way to Paris with an extremely risky plan that needs everything to be exactly on schedule is easier than just attacking AH?

AH would have to fight both Germany and Russia which is beyond them, even half of the German army would be more than enough to inflict serious defeat on them.
As for the French succeeding in Alsace, saying that it's ASB would be an understatement. The Germans really had almost no forces defending the border there, it's simply that charging against the enemy lines like the French did is not something that works in WW1, which is why it failed.

Because anything close to OTL army is uncapable of stopping Russian troops and conduct an invasion of Serbia? Or at fending off a secondary offensive by the Russians (with the Germans easily stopping the main one)? Because they were constantly reliant on Germany not to collapse their front with Russia?
The Germans have a far better army than the AH be it in leadership or equipment, half of it (and there will be more than half of it) is more than enough to make big gains against AH and that's not talking about the facts that you still need to fight off millions of Russian soldiers coming at you in Galicia, no matter how backward they may be they still need a lot of troops to stop them.

My prediction is that the Russo-German alliance will occupy most of AH land at some point, anyways yes Romania was useful but the end of the food stockpile is not going to end after two years, it's finishing at worst in late 1917 which is more than enough time to beat AH badly.

They weren't, despite having on of the most idiotic leaders of the 20th century and repeatedly making big mistakes, the Russians defeated the AH a number of times and kept German troops busy for the entire war. They only were completely lost once the Provisional Government took over and made big mistakes, allowing for the Bolsheviks to come to power and they then only were beaten by the Germans (ignoring the fact that the Bolsheviks purposefully demobilized the army themselves which made Operation Faustschlag possible). A house of cards would've been destroyed like Romania was IOTL.

Like Russia is completely unable at producing modern artillery because they don't have French loans?
Modern artillery wasn't really a problem for the Russians according to this source.

For God's sake the Russians aren't going to be backwards so much so that they're going to always lose to the "modern Austro-Hungarian army", for a matter of fact the AH army had proportionately less guns than the Russians and the rifles they used in WW1 were completely independent from French loans, the Mosin exists anyways.

Coal was mainly used for industries, most Italians lived in the countryside and used this to not freeze in winter:
R.68b7a97ad452c3c063b03a21b54c5b64
Sorry for the super late replies, been real busy.
The financed Russia because it was an urgent need, AH doesn't have the urgent need of industrializing unlike Russia, so I don't see why they would lend as much money as they did to Russia.
They wouldn't, but AH also doesn't need the amount of money Russia got to surpass French levels of industrialization so its not important. The loan issue isn't as big of a deal as its come out to be. As this conversation has continued and I've thought about it myself, I'm come to the conclusion that AHs economic growth will come from the aristocrats bending the knee to Vienna at gunpoint leading to them stopping the growth of the middle class and general economic growth that they butchered in OTL on purpose, or their removal from power via full male suffrage. How these come to be I've explained before.
Really AH has no chance, Germany alone would probably be able to break AH while fending off any attempts at incursion from Alsace by the French (since the idea of the Schlieffen Plan was to attack the weaker one, defeat it and defeat the stronger one). Once AH collapses (or starts to) the Entente is in a bad spot, Germany is more than capable at launching decisive offensives against them at this point and they can use harvests taken from AH to feed themselves.
I don't see Germany alone being able to break AH, at least, not fast enough. Not when they have a significantly larger and better funded military, the German army was strong, real strong, the strongest in the world. In a 1v1 in 1914 OTL they would eventually beat any opponent you could theoretically put them up against. Key word eventually. I do not this my buffed Austro Hungarian army is stronger then the German army, and I do not think they would be able to win a 1v1 either if it came down a grind game. And from what I can tell you seem to think that I do think AH is stronger then Germany, which I don't. But I absolutely think a coordinated Austro French effort at the beginning of the war could put some serious, *temporary* pressure on Germany that could lead to domino effects ending up in an Entente victory. The 2 should outnumber and outgun Germany, AH has the defensive advantage, and its really easy for armies to get stuck in the alps or the bohemian mountains, creating openings for a Tannenberg style victory for the Austrians. In the Austro-Prussian war, had the Prussians lost or tied at Konnigratz, it was over for them. Not because their army was going to be obliterated in battle, but because they were surrounded by the bohemian mountains and anything but a total victory would have let to the army being destroyed attempting to retreat. And since I think AH is significantly stronger here, I still think the Schlieffen plan would be aimed at France. Why? AH has a significantly larger population then France, it should be around 60 million in TL as a more industrialized Hungary avoids the mass emigration waves that happened in OTL. Around 2 million ethnic hungarians left just from 1890-1900 in OTL, things like that should be avoided, then theres also more urbanization, etc, the domino effects basically. A larger economy, and they should have a larger military too. Basically, there is no way I see AH being labelled as the "weaker" of the 2 here, and since they have better defensible borders then France, I still see the main German effort being directed at France. So AH should end up occupying some German land at the end of the opening offensives, not the other way around.
The Russians are more than capable of mobilizing large armies and moving them, and the Russians had a standing army of 1.4 million soldiers + reserves = 5.9 million men. 5m troops were mobilized IOTL in 1914, let's say Russia has half the speed of OTL: it still has 2.5 m troops fighting against only AH who also has to care about the German front and potentially Italy, Romania, Montenegro and Serbia.
Saying that the Russians are unable to do anything at the beginning of the war is ridiculous.
And the Battle of Tannenberg happened one month after the start of ww1.
The Russians will not have a standing army of 1.4 million here, or 5.9 million total. because they are not as industrialized and therefore likely lack the capital to front such a massive army. That massive army came around after Russian industrialization reached its peak, I believe those numbers were put into place in 1913. So without that industrial boom, they should not have such a massive army. Using there numbers from 1900 is closer to what I expect them to have. I can't find a reliable source on those, but regardless they should be far smaller then 1.4 million. So they shouldn't have 2.5 million to fight against AH either. You're right, saying the Russians can't do anything at the start of the war is ridiculous, but they shouldn't have to manpower or gunpower to do things like conduct a serious offensive against AH in the opening stages of the war. A month or a month and a half later? Sure, but not at outbreak.
And why do they accept ITTL?
I explained this twice already. There are 2 ways I can see this going down, either the aristocrats are forced to bend the knee to Vienna at gunpoint since AHs geopolitical situation is quite scary, and Vienna absolutely cannot tolerate the Hungarians doing things like kneecapping industrial, economic and military development. Why would this work? Because there were serious calls for reform in the Hungarian system after the 1867 compromise, there was mass emigration, the middle class was Austrian immigrants, and the rest of them were kept afloat by payments of family members who immigrated. So if there was *ever* going to be a standoff between the Crown(Austria) and the aristocratic government, the crown would win every single time. They would have the support of Transylvania, Croatia, the other minorities in Hungary, the Hungarian peasantry who were basically kept in serfdom, whatever middle class of ethnic Hungarians there was, and probably some liberal aristocrats too. The only people who support the artistocracy would be the violent nationalists and the rest of the aristocracy themselves. So they would have no support essentially. The army would also support the crown, as Habsburg soldiers were quite loyal to the dynasty and they were also drafted from the classes the aristocracy kept down. Phrase this takeover of power in the right way and the aristocrats are dead. Or better yet Vienna could just force full male suffrage which would be even easier to do, as they would have support from even the nationalists in the middle class and have the aristocracy completely backed to a wall. Thats the route I see them going personally, but you can achieve the same results and keep the aristocrats in power too. Doesn't matter.
If they're putting themselves in debt to develop Hungary then they quite certainly are spending a lot of money.
You might already be able to tell but I've gone back on this as my first response shows. Most of the development should come from the aristocracys power being broken. They do not need as large loans as Russia, maybe some to kickstart it but they should have the capital to do the rest themselves.
Russia has 125 million people, 1 million standing army is what to AH is an army 400k men, which is precisely what they had IOTL. They're going to spend more money on developing Hungary than in revenues at the beginning, and then there is the question whether the Habsburgs wanted this.
Austria would have to keep larger then a 400k standing army no matter what. 6-700k is what I think would be the standing army here. France in OTL spent the most out of the great powers on its army, kept it as large as it possibly could through large drafts and inflating service time as much as possible. With a population of 44 million they managed to have an army not too far off from Germany in size at mobilization and for the entire war. If France can front a giant army with less population and a smaller economy, AH should have no problem front a giant army too.
So you're saying me that it's easier to invade Belgium and go all the way to Paris with an extremely risky plan that needs everything to be exactly on schedule is easier than just attacking AH?
Invading either first would probably be seen as an equally tough decision to German high command in TL but ultimately I do think the French plan will win out. Because AH will have the larger army, and as I've said, they have better defensive positions, and many more chokepoints geographically. An AH first plan would be seen as just as risky, if not more so, and just as time tight. The Germans completely rejected a defensive plan against France, they weren't familiar with the absurd advantage trench warfare would give to the attacker, but regardless they completed rejected a defensive plan and thought it would confirm their defeat. So I don't see them committing to a defensive plan against France here either.
Because anything close to OTL army is uncapable of stopping Russian troops and conduct an invasion of Serbia? Or at fending off a secondary offensive by the Russians (with the Germans easily stopping the main one)? Because they were constantly reliant on Germany not to collapse their front with Russia?
The Germans have a far better army than the AH be it in leadership or equipment, half of it (and there will be more than half of it) is more than enough to make big gains against AH and that's not talking about the facts that you still need to fight off millions of Russian soldiers coming at you in Galicia, no matter how backward they may be they still need a lot of troops to stop them.
Good thing the army isn't anything close to OTL. Defending in Galicia once the Russians come in numbers shouldn't be so hard as AH will outgun them. Artillery ruled the battelfeild, and Russia like AH in OTL, wouldn't have modern artillery here, and that was a big reason for AHs early defeats as well, so its going to be incredibly hard to cross the trenches and take AHs land. And by the time they do modernize theres a high chance they'll have been beaten back across Poland already.
My prediction is that the Russo-German alliance will occupy most of AH land at some point, anyways yes Romania was useful but the end of the food stockpile is not going to end after two years, it's finishing at worst in late 1917 which is more than enough time to beat AH badly.
Well my prediction is the opposite. So I don't see that happening. Romania? Just Romania? Ok so lets just ignore Hungary shipping any excess grain to Germany(instead of Austria), the grain from the occupied Russian and French lands, etc. The food stockpiles your talking about does not exist. There was no food stockpile because they never expected a long war. They survived off their own grain production, what little there was of it. the haber basch process, and the exports from other countries and the grain taken from occupied land. The moment there was a bad harvest(1917), and one of their major grain suppliers joined the war(Romania, also 1917), there was a turnip winter, 1917. Germany is going to starve within a year.
They weren't, despite having on of the most idiotic leaders of the 20th century and repeatedly making big mistakes, the Russians defeated the AH a number of times and kept German troops busy for the entire war. They only were completely lost once the Provisional Government took over and made big mistakes, allowing for the Bolsheviks to come to power and they then only were beaten by the Germans (ignoring the fact that the Bolsheviks purposefully demobilized the army themselves which made Operation Faustschlag possible). A house of cards would've been destroyed like Romania was IOTL.
The Russians victories are only because of mismanagement of AH early in the war, and AH being technically behind in things like artillery which created a massive advantage even an idiot commander couldn't lose. And the brusilov offensive was because by 1916 AH had exhausted most of its manpower due to its early losses, and was currently fighting another offensive in Italy. You give OTLs AH even a little bit of luck and Russias war record is gonna look even grimmer. Before the provisional government took over the army was already starving and demoralized. It was becoming less and less of a fighting force with each passing day, with or without the provisional government the army was going to collapse sometime around 1917. After 1914 it existed off the prestige of its early victories alone.
Like Russia is completely unable at producing modern artillery because they don't have French loans?
Modern artillery wasn't really a problem for the Russians according to this source.
Producing and having in large numbers in 2 different things. Without the massive capital brought about by the industrial boom, which was brought about by the entente loans, Russia will not have the money to equip its army with modern artillery throughout. Some units yes, but not definitely not the majority. Which is the same predicament of the Austro Hungarians in 1914. Pre war they were the producers of some of the best weapons in Europe thanks to companies like Skoda and produced large quantities of modern weaponry, but none of that went to their army.
For God's sake the Russians aren't going to be backwards so much so that they're going to always lose to the "modern Austro-Hungarian army", for a matter of fact the AH army had proportionately less guns than the Russians and the rifles they used in WW1 were completely independent from French loans, the Mosin exists anyways.
They absolutely are, they couldn't seriously win while outnumbering their opponent 2 if not 3 to 1 past 1914, whatever victory they did get was against an army on crutches. And even then said victory(like the brusilov offensive) was hard fought and usually ended with more Russian causalities then the under prepared, under funded, and under equipped Austro Hungarians. And now they're 15 years behind. Even if you lowball AHs army quality to match France, they still wipe the floor with a Russia 15 years behind.
Coal was mainly used for industries, most Italians lived in the countryside and used this to not freeze in winter:
Nice! I'm sure the farmers are going to carry the war industry and the cities freezing certainly won't be a problem for the Italian war effort!
 
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