December 28th, 1941: The Day of Infamy

Wake

“When this war is over, the Japanese language will be spoken only in Hell.” Adm. Halsey, surveying the wreckage of USS Enterprise from Ford Island, December 28th, 1941.

“The USS Lexington just became the most important ship in the world.” Capt. Sherman, upon receiving word of the losses at Pearl Harbor.

The IJN aircraft flying away from Pearl Harbor left behind them a shattered Pacific Fleet and an atmosphere of panic tempered only by rage. Admiral Kimmel had woken up in the morning in command of twelve capital ships. By the time the sun set, only one was fully operational: the USS Lexington. Four would never fight again, and five would be in yard hands for months, or in one case years.

Only hours after the Pearl Harbor raid, 36 G3M bombers approached Wake. Here, the new radar was manned by equally green but far more aggressive personnel, and the island’s entire force of aircraft - 12 F4F Wildcats of VMF 211 – scrambled aloft to meet them. The Marine pilots managed to shoot down eight of the “Nells” and damaged several others, but the Japanese pressed the attack and did moderate damage to the base facilities.



Three days later the Japanese invasion force arrived. Major Devereux ordered his gunners to hold their fire until the enemy ships closed into effective range. His patience was rewarded by the destruction of DD Hayate and heavy damage to CL Yubari. Minutes later, bombs from VMF 211 destroyed DD Kisaragi. The Japanese invasion force withdrew. Two weeks of air attacks followed, including carrier aircraft from CV Hiryu and Soryu returning from the Pearl Harbor raid. VMF 211’s kills continued to mount until they met A6M’s from Hiryu and Soryu. The Marine squadron was destroyed in nine furious minutes of combat, though they took three Zeros with them.

Several senior officers, notably Adm. Halsey, proposed a relief expedition be sent to Wake covered by a task force built around the USS Lexington. Before this expedition could be sent, on January 5th Admiral Nimitz replaced Admiral Kimmel as commander, Pacific Fleet, and quickly vetoed any suggestion to risk the Pacific Fleet’s only operational capital ship so far from any possible support.

On January 15th the Japanese launched their second amphibious assault. The Marine defenders once again destroyed several ships and inflicted heavy losses on the landing force, but three days later the defenders were out of ammunition and water. Over 300 of the island’s defenders had been killed. Japanese ground losses alone were over 1,000. The defense of Wake, while ultimately a defeat, would claim the first IJN warship sunk and the first Japanese defeat of the war.


Note: next post will be Monday.
 
I am not going to change the basic premise of TTL. If that's a problem for you, please see above. If you're willing to accept that, then I welcome further comments.

Just to reinforce the point: I don't want you to change the basic premise. I want to you to address various issues that will make it more believable.
 
Basically, you need to get down to the library and check out a copy of At Dawn We Slept and read it. THEN you can make things go the way you want without leaving all those softballs out there for critics to hit out of the park.

I'm not here to defend a PhD thesis, I'm here to explore a 'what if' in what I hope is an entertaining fashion. If I took the time to dot every I and cross every T we'd be on page six of this thread before I got done describing the UnRep exercises.

FYI, a critic says "you can't do it that way." Constructive criticism (which I asked for in the OP) says "you can't do it that way, but you can get good results doing it this way." Care to provide any of the latter? A three-deck strike on Pearl with two of the groups being green isn't going to accomplish a third the damage of a six-deck strike. That, therefore, is a non-starter. The 'what if', as opposed to the PoD, is 'what if the USN lost two of its fleet carriers at Pearl?'

Oh, and YOU might want to go back and re-read the OP. The attack takes place THREE weeks after OTL, not two. Missing important details like that doesn't boost your credibility with me (which, given our previous encounters on this board, you can't expect to be very high to begin with).

On ranges and sources, take a look at the Pacific War Online Encyclopedia's page on the Shokaku class. PWOE isn't perfect, but I'll trust it over wikipedia in a heartbeat. So let's look again at your cred and ask why I should listen to you: you cite a key fact, with the only checkable link being to wikipedia, that contradicts a much more reliable source I have.

Again, if you don't like TTL, you are under no obligation to read it. If you think it is ASB, you are welcome to tell the moderators and ask that it be moved.

I'm going to keep writing this, as realistically as I can, as long as there is interest.

Have a nice day.
 
I'm not here to defend a PhD thesis, I'm here to explore a 'what if' in what I hope is an entertaining fashion. If I took the time to dot every I and cross every T we'd be on page six of this thread before I got done describing the UnRep exercises.

FYI, a critic says "you can't do it that way." Constructive criticism (which I asked for in the OP) says "you can't do it that way, but you can get good results doing it this way." Care to provide any of the latter?

My...

Aren't you hostile?

Just for your edification, I do not look at what I have thrown out there as "You can't do it that way." I look at it as "Here are these things you haven't considered. You might want to address them."

You remind me of the guy who tried to start a TL where the Antarctic Ice Cap collapses due to impact of a comet sometime in the 1400s. I told him that the impactor, as he outlined it, wasn't big enough to cause the effects he wanted. I advised him to do the very simple thing - make the impactor BIGGER. He wouldn't. The TL/thread died.

If you want to do a Pearl Harbor TL, it behooves you to have at least read the definitive work on the subject. That just happens to be At Dawn We Slept by Gordon Prange.

Note: On a lark, I looked up At Dawn We Slept on the Everett WA Library web site. There is a copy at the Main Branch and the Evergreen Branch. BTW, nice area. I used to live across the Sound on the Kitsap Peninsula.
 
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Would I Lie To You?

On ranges and sources, take a look at the Pacific War Online Encyclopedia's page on the Shokaku class. PWOE isn't perfect, but I'll trust it over wikipedia in a heartbeat. So let's look again at your cred and ask why I should listen to you: you cite a key fact, with the only checkable link being to wikipedia, that contradicts a much more reliable source I have.

First off, I didn't just give you Wikipedia. I gave you page 416 of At Dawn We Slept. I've already acknowledged that is difficult for you to check. However, the alternative is you accusing me of lying. Are you prepared to do that?

Now I'll give you some more. http://www.historyofwar.org/articles/weapons_shokaku.html "Range 9,700nm"
http://www.battlestations.eu/index.php/en/our-encyclopedia/warships/95-shokaku "Even with a considerable increase in power (the most powerful machinery ever fitted in a Japanese warship) the two ships could achieve a range of nearly 10,000 miles (16000 km) as they carried 5,000 tons of fuel."
http://ww2db.com/ship_spec.php?ship_id=23 "Range 9,700nm at 18 knots"
http://navalhistory.flixco.info/H/89980/8330/a0.htm "Range 10,000 nm"
http://www.historyofwar.org/articles/weapons_shokaku_class.html "Range 9,700 nm"


I'm going to guess that the number at PWOE is a typo.
 
Oh, and YOU might want to go back and re-read the OP. The attack takes place THREE weeks after OTL, not two.

My bad. I keyed in on Nagumo asking Yamamoto for two weeks. That does get mentioned twice to the one time three weeks is mentioned.

BTW, how does Japanese Intelligence know when the various Task Forces will or will not be in port? They didn't know that detail IOTL.

Missing important details like that doesn't boost your credibility with me (which, given our previous encounters on this board, you can't expect to be very high to begin with).

First off, I don't know you from Adam.

Secondly, holding some sort of grudge, are we now? Doesn't seem like very mature behavior to me.

I think I've proven that my sources are good here.
 
While I realise its difficult, I do feel you should try and sort out the weather for the first week or two of your timline.
For example, the Japanese invasion of Malaya was helped hugely by the weather. If the weather is nice 3 weeks later, more butterflies ensue.

I feel that the initial Malaya campaign is actually the big butterfly effect in the early Pacific War, because in OTL it just barely suceeded and if it doesnt (at least on the first shove), all sorts of things fall out differentlty.

How much of the US fleet is destroyed doesnt actualy make much difference for the first few months (it will later, of course). Similarly the islands wont change much. The PI may, I cant remember offhand if any convoys were due in these critical 3 weeks. While the IJA failing to take Singapore on the bounce will cause all sorts of heavy duty butterflies to take wing (not that Singapore is likely to hold, but it will take a few more months)

But do think you need the weather for the few few weeks at least.
 
Japanese losses were 37 aircraft destroyed, with 61 aircrew killed.
?Wasn't the loses a lot more OTL?.



?Weren't there some planes & tanks headed to DEI that were sunk OTL just after the 7th, that would make it ITTL.?
The forces sent to the Dutch East Indies had originally been destined for the P.I. but were diverted.
No I'm thinking of a shipment of Lend Lease planes [Buffaloes??] being sent to the Dutch force on Java.
 
Not ASB

If you think it is ASB, you are welcome to tell the moderators and ask that it be moved.

One wonders how many times you have to be told that I do not consider this to be ASB and that I have made no move to have it moved to ASB before it sinks in. It is clear from the rest of your post and your previous posts that you are nursing some sort of grudge. I suggest you set that aside and listen.
 
A three-deck strike on Pearl with two of the groups being green isn't going to accomplish a third the damage of a six-deck strike. That, therefore, is a non-starter. The 'what if', as opposed to the PoD, is 'what if the USN lost two of its fleet carriers at Pearl?'

And, yet, it was something the IJN planned for. All I'm saying is that you may need some other method to get to losing two USN fleet carriers at Pearl or a plausible argument as to why something they planned for wouldn't be implemented.

As for the green air group, note that neither Nagumo, Genda or Fuchida is part of any of the staffs of any of those three carriers (Nagumo is CarDiv1 in addition to First Air Fleet). They're going to have to be moved over. Presumably, the Japanese will wake up and transfer some of the Akagi and CarDiv2 pilots. It is certainly no greater of a stretch than you've presented.
 

Cook

Banned
Errr, where did you read that? I have Curtin quite firmly in Canberra at the time.

Curtin left Melbourne for a holiday in Perth on 21 January 1941 suffering from exhaustion.
On 24 January Frank Fords and Bert Evatt sent a telegram to Churchill ‘Page has reported that the Defence Committee has been considering the evacuation of Malaya and Singapore. After all the assurances we have been given the evacuation of Singapore would be regarded here and elsewhere as an inexcusable betrayal. We understood that it was to be made impregnable, and in any event it was capable of holding out for a prolonged period until the arrival of the main fleet. Even in an emergency, diversion of reinforcements should be to the Dutch East Indies and not Burma. Anything else would be deeply resented and might force the Dutch East Indies to make a separate peace. On the faith of the proposed flow of reinforcements, we have acted and carried out our part of the bargain. We expect you not to frustrate the whole purpose by evacuation.’
From 'The Battle for Singapore.'
 
Except he was, as I've shown, firmly back in Canberra at the time of the fall of Singapore whereas you claimed he was not. As I pointed out, he was there quite definitely during the most crucial battle that the Australian government fought at that time against Churchill and his Machiavellian ways. So your claim that, Curtin "was recovering in Perth in the last weeks before the fall of Singapore." is demonstrably wrong. He was in Canberra at least a fortnight (and I suspect even earlier) before the fall of Singapore.
 

Cook

Banned
Except he was, as I've shown, firmly back in Canberra at the time of the fall of Singapore whereas you claimed he was not. As I pointed out, he was there quite definitely during the most crucial battle that the Australian government fought at that time against Churchill and his Machiavellian ways. So your claim that, Curtin "was recovering in Perth in the last weeks before the fall of Singapore." is demonstrably wrong. He was in Canberra at least a fortnight (and I suspect even earlier) before the fall of Singapore.



I said in the last weeks before the fall, not when Singapore fell. Specifically when the decision was taken not to evacuate the army from Singapore, which was something that had to be decided and largely executed while the Battle for Johore was still taking place.

And my point was that events are not going to be just pushed back three weeks.
 

Cook

Banned
No I'm thinking of a shipment of Lend Lease planes [Buffaloes??] being sent to the Dutch force on Java.

My mistake, I thought you were referring to the B-17s and P-40s that went to the Dutch East Indies via Darwin.
 
I said in the last weeks before the fall, not when Singapore fell. Specifically when the decision was taken not to evacuate the army from Singapore, which was something that had to be decided and largely executed while the Battle for Johore was still taking place.

No, that was not what you said. I provided a direct quote from your post.

And my point was that events are not going to be just pushed back three weeks.

I agree other timetables were set and would have been hard to modify but not impossible. However, other events, such as the location of John Curtin and the reasons why he was in Perth, when he was, would have been modified.
 
Did the Germans declare war upon the US following the Japanese attack in this ATL?

In the OTL, the Germans immediately declared war upon the US, with the Wehrmacht receiving the first counterattacks by the Russians outside of Moscow.
In this ATL the Germans have been pushed back and have suffered more losses during the next 3 weeks.
Could this lead to Hitler choosing not to declare war upon the US?
 
This is an interesting time-line. Good luck with it.

Some constraints on delaying Pearl:

1) The Pensacola convoy would reach the Philippines. That's a major increase in the firepower (especially artillery) available to the US forces there. In theory it is a major increment in air power too, but planes were shipped without key components. I don't know if those components would have made it before crunch time in this scenario, but I suspect they would be a top priority--maybe even flown in on B17s if there was enough fuel capacity to get there with a small load.

2) December 7th was a full moon, which allowed the Japanese to launch pre-dawn more easily and without lighting up their ships. Not sure what the phase of the moon was Dec 28th.

3) In much of Southeast Asia, the monsoons made military movements much more difficult and cut down on the effectiveness of aircraft. That was especially true in Burma, where large-scale warfare essentially shut down for several months during the monsoon season. Historically, the Japanese timed their attack partly so that they could establish their perimeter before the monsoon season started. Delaying the attack three weeks would cut into their margins in terms of reaching all of their objectives.

One advantage for the Japanese I can think of off the top of my head: They'll have time to make more of the converted naval shell bombs that they used at Pearl. Historically they weren't able to make as many as they wanted to.
 
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