Thirty Extra Feet: The History of the Pacific War, 1938-1944

abc123

Banned
loughery111

Interesting POD. Rings a bell so might have heard of it before but had forgotten. Going to be intriguing to see how the US mobilises and how the two nations sudden war plans interact. Will Britain be joining in the fray? As you say the US is in a poor position to attack at this point and could well lose the Philippines but possibly not all the other island positions and could be some hefty battles in the region. Especially since when it gets the time the Atlantic fleet can be stripped to send more to the Pacific.

Looking forward to seeing more.:)

Steve


Well, this POD and War in 1938 could:

a) entirely butterfly War in Europe ( if Britain enters ), I don't see France entering, they are too much preocccupied with Europe, so Hitler might get away with attack on Poland

b) mean that UK and France are free for War in Europe more than OTL because they don't have to worry about Japan

c) US entry into eventual War in Europe is unlikely until at least 1941 or 1942
 

loughery111

Banned
That sounds a bit wankish for the allies - but is something I could live with:D. Not sure how, given a war in the Pacific ongoing, the US would get in that much earlier, especially if Britain is neutral. If Britain and France both declared war, even if they did relatively little militarily, that would give a basis for a US dow when Poland is attacked.

In terms of the suggested Pacific war both sides would be significantly weaker with less ships in service and development of areas, most especially carrier warfare. Presuming no other power gets involved it could be a tough struggle for the US. Japan will be able to concentrate it's strength against the US and possibly get the battle it wants in the region of the Philippines. Also it's not as deep into China and so will be less bogged down there. Will-power permitting the US will win in the end but there could be some heavy fighting and can't see it being resolved by nukes. Also, presuming no Soviet intervention it would probably require a bloody invasion of Japan.:eek: That would fit in with the 6 year OP duration for a Pacific war. If Britain also got involved, for whatever reason, the war should be shorter as more resources to throw into the mix and Malaya will be a lot safer with the Japanese not in a position to attack it, plus possibly both western powers intervening on the Chinese mainland.

Presuming this doesn't butterfly the European war, unlikely but possible I suppose, then in the short term it could handicap the western powers. With America tooling up for war there won't be the spare capacity in US industries, so the investment Britain and France supplied OTL will have to go, at a somewhat slower rate, into their own industries. Possibly some economic boost because America and Japan are less competition economically and the fact of war should help loosen the purse strings a bit in the allies powers, although whether those extra funds would be used efficiently would be an interesting question.

If Britain joins this early Pacific war it will mean losses and diversion of forces reducing it's impact in Europe. However it will also mean battle experience for some troops and an higher rate of production while the homeland is still at peace and secure - i.e. not impeded by blockade or blackout for instance. [Less certain about France getting involved but a similar effect if they do although, with a land border with Germany their likely to commit very little to the east, although base access and some light naval units would be useful as would diplomatic/economic support].

However, presuming there is a European conflict and the US joins it earlier then an even partially tooled up US would have a huge difference. Especially if possibly in time to prevent a collapse of France although probably unlikely if the Ardennes attack still occurs. [Although without a number of butterflies unrelated to American military status the Germans could still come a nasty cropper there;)]. One oddity might be if the Pacific war triggers Britain and France, whether with or without US support, decides to stand up to Germany over the Sudatenland. Also, if their facing no threat from Japan how will Russia react to circumstances in Europe?

For my own guess about the significance of the extra 30'. Either - forget it I see loughery111 has answered the point and I was way off.

Steve

This won't suffer quite that degree of Allied-wank. I'm working off the theory that an early war is something of a net-positive for the US in terms of casualties; though it won't be mobilized at all, Japan won't have the large stockpile of weapons and vessels of OTL to open the ball with. On the other hand, it'll take longer, because for a while at least, everyone will be pussyfooting around losses, and it will take some time to build the navy necessary to hem Japan in. As for the European half of things, that will be peripheral to TTL's concerns, but I had a good idea for tying it in last night and you will get regular snippets of the European political and military situation on the side.

The Pacific War will eventually expand, because of one thing; Japan needs oil and it can't get it from the Western hemisphere. At this point, the key sources of oil for most of the world were the US, Mexico, and the Dutch East Indies. Two of those are not going to be selling Japan anything.

I should note that I reserve the right to change the length of this war if I find it needs to be done... :D

loughery111

Interesting POD. Rings a bell so might have heard of it before but had forgotten. Going to be intriguing to see how the US mobilises and how the two nations sudden war plans interact. Will Britain be joining in the fray? As you say the US is in a poor position to attack at this point and could well lose the Philippines but possibly not all the other island positions and could be some hefty battles in the region. Especially since when it gets the time the Atlantic fleet can be stripped to send more to the Pacific.

Looking forward to seeing more.:)

Steve

Britain's current position will be somewhat clarified soon. I think it's the third or fourth planned update. There's another one already written, slated for about #8 I think. I'm hoping that if I can stay ahead of the curve I can release two a week, as they're not all that long.
 

Bearcat

Banned
A war in 1938 means no early Japanese attack on Pearl - the carriers to pull it off don't exist, and neither does the doctrine of a multi-carrier group.

Look for the US to start building BBs and CVs in somewhat opposite proportions to OTL. Though that will start to shift as the war progresses.

In 1938 the TBD Devastator is still a decent airplane and will be remembered better than OTL.

Lots of other changes.
 

loughery111

Banned
A war in 1938 means no early Japanese attack on Pearl - the carriers to pull it off don't exist, and neither does the doctrine of a multi-carrier group.

Look for the US to start building BBs and CVs in somewhat opposite proportions to OTL. Though that will start to shift as the war progresses.

In 1938 the TBD Devastator is still a decent airplane and will be remembered better than OTL.

Lots of other changes.

You've got parts of what I planned right. There will be a Pearl Harbor strike of some sort though. Let's just say that it sets the tone for the war in a way you wouldn't expect.
 
This won't suffer quite that degree of Allied-wank. I'm working off the theory that an early war is something of a net-positive for the US in terms of casualties; though it won't be mobilized at all, Japan won't have the large stockpile of weapons and vessels of OTL to open the ball with. On the other hand, it'll take longer, because for a while at least, everyone will be pussyfooting around losses, and it will take some time to build the navy necessary to hem Japan in. As for the European half of things, that will be peripheral to TTL's concerns, but I had a good idea for tying it in last night and you will get regular snippets of the European political and military situation on the side.

I don't know about that. While they lack a couple of the carriers and some of the liner converts I think most of the rest of the IJN is there and they won't want to hang around. Nor will they have to bother about other powers in the short term [provided its only Japan, the US and China] so I would expect a fairly rapid attack on the Philippines. Further east might be more difficult but would expect to see them operating aggressively as that was pretty much all they know.

Just had a thought. An unpopular war that may well see some early set-backs. Will Roosevelt stand in 40?

The Pacific War will eventually expand, because of one thing; Japan needs oil and it can't get it from the Western hemisphere. At this point, the key sources of oil for most of the world were the US, Mexico, and the Dutch East Indies. Two of those are not going to be selling Japan anything.

That will be a big Achilles heel and I can't see them getting that close to the Dutch Indies, not without also bringing Britain and possibly the French in.

I should note that I reserve the right to change the length of this war if I find it needs to be done... :D

Damned deities getting upperty!:p:D

Britain's current position will be somewhat clarified soon. I think it's the third or fourth planned update. There's another one already written, slated for about #8 I think. I'm hoping that if I can stay ahead of the curve I can release two a week, as they're not all that long.

Many thanks. Looking forward to it.

Steve
 
I don't know about that. While they lack a couple of the carriers and some of the liner converts I think most of the rest of the IJN is there and they won't want to hang around.

Actually, they're a LOT weaker than 1938. The CV Hiryu won't commission until 1939, and CV Shokaku and Zuikaku until late 1941. That's half their fleet carriers of OTL 1941. As of the start of the war they're also missing the seaplane carriers (CVS Mizuho, Chitose, Chiyoda) though two will commission by the end of the year. CVL Zuiho won't be ready until 1940, and Shoho might be rushed into service by the end of 1941. CVE Taiyo is also unavailable, though her class wasn't a whole lot of use anyway.

CA Tone and Chikuma are the only heavy cruisers not ready in 1938, but the BB Yamato class are still only dreams. You're also missing the DD Kagero class, and all but the first notions about underway replenishment (which wasn't really tried on a large scale until the Pearl Harbor raid IOTL).

But the real problem is aircraft. The D3A "Val" and the A6M "Zero" aren't in service yet. These were the mainstays of the IJN airpower during the war, but they won't be available in any numbers until 1940 or so.

The good news is that the Type 93 "Long Lance" torpedoes ARE in service, though some of the fleet stills needs to be refitted to carry them.

The gun lines are a... challenge for the IJN. They can bring ten ships to the party with 16 16" guns and 80 14" guns. The USN can bring fifteen ships with 24 16", 124 14" and 12 12" guns. Also, four of the IJN ships are perhaps more properly rated as BC due to their lighter armor (though high speed). The IJN line can all make at least 25kts to the USN 20kts, so they can control the range of the engagement. IJN guns seem also to outrange the best USN guns slightly (max 42,000 vs. 36,300 yards), though accurate fire at over 36,000 yards is tough, and both sides have the problems of multiple maximum ranges.
 
Gridley

Ah, so their 3 rather than 2 fleet carriers down. I think the US had most of their's - being too lazy to check my reference books.:eek: However things are not really worse for the Japanese than they were in 41 and the longer they wait the worse it will become as they won't be able to match US production. Also with the US having declared war they need to get the Philippines else their supply lines for all imports will be pretty much cut. The US will have to keep something in the Atlantic but the Japanese best bet, such as it is, would be to hit before the US can get onto a war footing and bring the bulk of the Atlantic fleet to the Pacific. or even before the Pacific fleet can move in from San Diego.

Steve

Actually, they're a LOT weaker than 1938. The CV Hiryu won't commission until 1939, and CV Shokaku and Zuikaku until late 1941. That's half their fleet carriers of OTL 1941. As of the start of the war they're also missing the seaplane carriers (CVS Mizuho, Chitose, Chiyoda) though two will commission by the end of the year. CVL Zuiho won't be ready until 1940, and Shoho might be rushed into service by the end of 1941. CVE Taiyo is also unavailable, though her class wasn't a whole lot of use anyway.

CA Tone and Chikuma are the only heavy cruisers not ready in 1938, but the BB Yamato class are still only dreams. You're also missing the DD Kagero class, and all but the first notions about underway replenishment (which wasn't really tried on a large scale until the Pearl Harbor raid IOTL).

But the real problem is aircraft. The D3A "Val" and the A6M "Zero" aren't in service yet. These were the mainstays of the IJN airpower during the war, but they won't be available in any numbers until 1940 or so.

The good news is that the Type 93 "Long Lance" torpedoes ARE in service, though some of the fleet stills needs to be refitted to carry them.

The gun lines are a... challenge for the IJN. They can bring ten ships to the party with 16 16" guns and 80 14" guns. The USN can bring fifteen ships with 24 16", 124 14" and 12 12" guns. Also, four of the IJN ships are perhaps more properly rated as BC due to their lighter armor (though high speed). The IJN line can all make at least 25kts to the USN 20kts, so they can control the range of the engagement. IJN guns seem also to outrange the best USN guns slightly (max 42,000 vs. 36,300 yards), though accurate fire at over 36,000 yards is tough, and both sides have the problems of multiple maximum ranges.
 
Gridley

Ah, so their 3 rather than 2 fleet carriers down. I think the US had most of their's - being too lazy to check my reference books.:eek:

Three out of six 'real' pre-war fleet carriers were in commission; plus USS Enterprise (CV6) commissioned 5/12/1938, but USS Wasp (CV7) and USS Hornet (CV8) won't be ready until 1940 and 1941. The US also has USS Ranger (CV4), which will be useful.

Call it three and a half USN carriers (with one more right around the corner) against three and three-quarters IJN carriers (CV Akagi, Kaga, Soryu, Ryujo and Hosho). That's a lot worse than six and a half USN carriers against seven and a half IJN carriers (the above plus CV Hiryu, Shokaku, Zuikaku, CVL Zuiho, CVE Taiyo).

Edit: fixed numbers.
 
Cut off 30' of film. I see what you are getting at. Remember that the US by 1938 was becoming very anti-Jap. It could have happened but only if the President pushed it. Congress would not lead they follow.:)
 
FDR guaranteed himself a third term here. Will the Republicans still field Willkie in 1940 given the circumstances?
 
I doubt it. Willkie was quite literally created and imposed on the GOP by the media, especially Henry Luce. The closest modern equivalent I could think of (ASB though it is) would be conservative media, both MSM and new media, powering Palin through Iowa and SC to the nomination. :eek:

Given the butterflies, they might well go for Taft or even Dewey, though both are far too inexperienced IMO.
 
Good to see this incident being used in a TL, I actually used something similar in novel I have written, though I have not posted any of it here, as I am trying to get it published :). Interested to see which direction you take it.
 
Isnt 1938 about the year Japan was in a war with Russia, and lost big time?

The Lake Chasan incident, probably butterflied away by the US declaration of war.
***
What were Anglo-French stances on neutrality? Would the US be allowed to ship arms, troops, etc. through India?

If the US can hold the Philippines - a big if, admittedly - it stands a reasonable chance of being able to help support Chinese efforts. There may be substantial political pressure to send aid to China ASAP, given the cause of the war.

February/March '38 was when everyone started to take notice of the Roosevelt Recession; the war spending (and the draft) will probably help reduce it, to an extent.
 
I don't want to hijack this thread, but I have a copy of Theodore's Panay War timeline, originally posted to the Warships1 Naval Fiction board, that has been mentioned here and he has authorized me to email it to interested parties.

Send me a pm with your email if you want it.
 

loughery111

Banned
Isnt 1938 about the year Japan was in a war with Russia, and lost big time?

That's not going to happen here. The Japanese high command may be idiotic at times, but they're not suicidal enough to take on the US and USSR at the same time.

What were Anglo-French stances on neutrality? Would the US be allowed to ship arms, troops, etc. through India?

If the US can hold the Philippines - a big if, admittedly - it stands a reasonable chance of being able to help support Chinese efforts. There may be substantial political pressure to send aid to China ASAP, given the cause of the war.

February/March '38 was when everyone started to take notice of the Roosevelt Recession; the war spending (and the draft) will probably help reduce it, to an extent.

The British and French stances will rapidly diverge from initial similarity, and the recession will indeed be subsumed under the influence of that debt-funded six billion in military spending... as for the Philippines, we shall see.
 
You don't think the Kwangtung Army might try a little border adjustment? Then again, it may be more focused on pushing to cut off the Chinese coast as fast as possible.
 
You don't think the Kwangtung Army might try a little border adjustment? Then again, it may be more focused on pushing to cut off the Chinese coast as fast as possible.

I think it will be kept on a much tighter lease than OTL, since Japan is in a much more serious war than OTL's at this point.
 
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