Nobunaga’s Ambition Realized: Dawn of a New Rising Sun

[Quinkana]

I don’t think it would be too hard for Japan to import some Northern Chinese wheat seeds if they need it for their northern colonizations and it would be quite exciting to see how it diversifies Japanese cuisine.

Tbf I think they could get cold resistant wheat from their Dutch and soon to be British friends too and I'd think Japanese wheat diversity ittl would be interesting.

Well yes I wouldn’t be surprised if Sulu and Brunei tried to ally with the Dutch to survive but their proximity to Japan over the Dutch is making me think probably won’t work long term. IMO what’s likely to end up happening is Dutch Malaya and Singapore and a partition of Borneo with the Netherlands (all Japanese Borneo was too optimistic in hindsight)

Oh I meant it as a short term thing tho, a desperation tactic. I do think the Japanese could take all of SEA if they do it the Dutch way and start making companies, and the Japanese starting position would be great with their gateways to SEA (beiritou and the Philippines) in their hands. It's more that I think Japan could make a play for Johore and Malacca which would make Dutch control weaker, but I don't think the other European powers would be allied against the Japanese at first so Japan could divide and conquer.

Yeah Japan has the means to hop over to Alaska via the Aleutians. Anchorage and Juneau are likely to be pretty decently sized Japanese settlements and they go down the coast into BC. Maybe not to California itself but deffo into the Oregon region.

Yep, especially if Japan gets a Siberian fur company I could see it easily translate to getting to Alaska and BC and putting settlers there to ensure their ports functioned.

Still I am very intrigued to see how the Philippines develop. A more diverse Japanese culture that’s still inherently united and Japanese would be fascinating. And that’s what you’d get with an empire that stretches from Borneo to the Arctic.

Yeah I agree. I do think a lot of Chinese in SEA would assimilate into Japanese society and associated cultural concepts may leak into Japanese culture. Maybe we get Mazu to be worshipped by some Japanese?

 

[Tertius711]

Tbf I think they could get cold resistant wheat from their Dutch and soon to be British friends too and I'd think Japanese wheat diversity ittl would be interesting.

Yeah it's not a problem for the Japanese. I'm actually quite excited for it. More food diversity is always great, especially for Japan, as it will help them reduce their reliance on certain crops and also diversify their culture and cuisine.

Oh I meant it as a short term thing tho, a desperation tactic. I do think the Japanese could take all of SEA if they do it the Dutch way and start making companies, and the Japanese starting position would be great with their gateways to SEA (beiritou and the Philippines) in their hands. It's more that I think Japan could make a play for Johore and Malacca which would make Dutch control weaker, but I don't think the other European powers would be allied against the Japanese at first so Japan could divide and conquer.

Japan's success in taking the whole region is dependent IMO on how involved the Europeans are. With this war, the Japanese and Dutch are about to drive the Spanish and Portuguese out but the French and English/British may become future contenders and Nusantara is just frankly huge.

Plus there are some parts of SEA like Siam and Vietnam that I just don't see Japan ever taking beyond alliance and maybe protectorate.

Yep, especially if Japan gets a Siberian fur company I could see it easily translate to getting to Alaska and BC and putting settlers there to ensure their ports functioned.

Exactly. Furs are a big deal. People shouldn't put down the fur trade. The French claimed all of New France just for furs and made a killing off of it. Also whaling and fishing, the North Pacific and Arctic stocks are huge where that is concerned and the Japanese love their fish and whales. They have many reasons both economic and strategic to expand into Siberia and Alaska and they are well placed for it geographically. Heck, they even have a great border to go to in Siberia. The Lena River would neatly demarcate their border.

Yeah I agree. I do think a lot of Chinese in SEA would assimilate into Japanese society and associated cultural concepts may leak into Japanese culture. Maybe we get Mazu to be worshipped by some Japanese?

Likely. All those Cantonese in Bireitou are likely assimilating inevitably though in places like the Philippines and Malaya, this assimilation may be less as one-sided as the Azuchi Japanese would prefer.

It's likely a combined Japanese-Chinese group becomes the dominant class in Japanese ruled territories in SEA. China in this era after all still has a huge cultural influence on its neighbours.

 

[Simeon]

Likely. All those Cantonese in Bireitou are likely assimilating inevitably though in places like the Philippines and Malaya, this assimilation may be less as one-sided as the Azuchi Japanese would prefer.

It's likely a combined Japanese-Chinese group becomes the dominant class in Japanese ruled territories in SEA. China in this era after all still has a huge cultural influence on its neighbours.

The Cantonese immigrants would also have likely maintained contact with their relatives at the mainland.

With the traditional East Asian judiciousness in regards to genealogy, it's not going to be as one-way as you think. It will only tie Japan tighter to the Sinosphere, the diplomatic assumptions and legal fictions that they've always held up unto be damned.

 

[Tertius711]

The Cantonese immigrants would also have likely maintained contact with their relatives at the mainland.

With the traditional East Asian judiciousness in regards to genealogy, it's not going to be as one-way as you think. It will only tie Japan tighter to the Sinosphere, the diplomatic assumptions and legal fictions that they've always held up unto be damned.

Indeed yes though China I doubt will really be able to actually exert authority over Japan, it will tie them closer economically and culturally.

The thing about immigrants, is that within two-three generations, that homeland contact is cut off. In Bireitou there is a proximity to both China and Japan which makes it a question mark but personally given Japan's success with the Formosa colony IRL, I'm thinking they could very well make it very close to Honshu culturally, if still quite distinct. Maybe like a Hokkaido or Okinawa level of distinction from Honshu.

Where the Chinese character will really come out though, is in the Philippines and Nusantara. Those regions are further away from Japan and have less actual Japanese immigrants. Thus we are likely to see a very Sinicized Philippines. IMO to the degree experienced by Taiwan IRL. (Before the Qing conquered it, Taiwan was populated by Austronesian groups like the Philippines were) Japan would basically be opening the door to immigration from two Sinosphere countries, China and Japan, and that will create a mix with the local cultures in the archipelago.

As the culture of the country that rules the place, it is likely that Japanese and Japanese culture has a similar predominance to Spanish/English do in the IRL Phillippines but the actual culture of the region is some fascinating blend of Japanese, Chinese (which is also diversified from which Chinese migrate) and the local groups.

Beyond the Philippines I don't feel so confident predicting but it's going to be interesting to say the least.

 

[tonsofun]

If they control all of the coastline their eventual control of the whole island is a given. What’s in the interior but jungles and mountains?

A quick search reveals that the interior of Borneo is covered in jungles, mountains and all the other stuff that comes with that. According to the WWF, 52 new species were found there between 2005-2006 so I would guess the interior isn't very habitable.

 

[Tertius711]

A quick search reveals that the interior of Borneo is covered in jungles, mountains and all the other stuff that comes with that. According to the WWF, 52 new species were found there between 2005-2006 so I would guess the interior isn't very habitable.

Well yes that is my point. The interior of Borneo is to this day barely inhabited. If Japan takes the whole coast, they take the whole island. But in hindsight I do think that the Dutch will end up taking the south of the island so Japan takes maybe Sarawak, Brunei, Sabah, and North Kalimantan and Dutch have the rest? Idk.

 

[focus9912]

Well yes that is my point. The interior of Borneo is to this day barely inhabited. If Japan takes the whole coast, they take the whole island. But in hindsight I do think that the Dutch will end up taking the south of the island so Japan takes maybe Sarawak, Brunei, Sabah, and North Kalimantan and Dutch have the rest? Idk.

Well,since we are talking about Borneo I would like to interject that currently IOTL Brunei holds most of the northern coast of Borneo. There are also one or two other sultanates that rule parts of Borneo IIRC like the Sarawak Sultanate (not to be confused with much more famous the Kingdom of Sarawak), so any outpost on Borneo will definitely mean some interaction with the sultanates

I wish there was someone knowledgeable, like the author of the timeline that touch a little bit about Borneo that could comment(I could not link to the author for some reason).

 

[Kurd Gossemer]

Tbf at most I see the Dutch having some power over some sultanates and Japan and the Dutch will just kinda share power over the Philippines, but Japan would hold Luzon and Manila at least.

It's more that I don't see the Japanese allowing the coast of the far east to be russian since Japan wants to control the sea lanes around it, and the fur trade was quite substantial even if it's the only resource in Siberia (I could see Japan making a company-thing inspired by the Dutch much like the British). It doesn't matter if Siberia doesn't have much. Japan can't let Russia have a Pacific fleet. Could they have good relations with a good partition of Siberia? Yes. But would Japan allow Russia to hold all of its otl lands? Hell no.

Normally I would agree but you also have to take unto consideration that outside of natives and the Russians, no one was really claimoring about Siberia, especially a Japan that has much bigger prizes in Asia than to go and occupy gigantic stretches of Frozen land without any beneficial return, even something like the war in the Philippines will bring a big island full of taxable peasants and capacity of growing tropical goods instead of them sinking money, ships and people into some area that is cold most of the year and only brings furs?

That's not even to mention the fact the Russians wouldn't be driven towards converting (although being allowed to would be nice) nor would they immediately act militarily towards the japanese, more seeking trade than anything. So why would Japan start a aggression war against a seemingly amicable country who wants to trade things it craves and things it can sell to a new buyer on the fact they can get... Ports that freeze in winter and extremely cold land.

In other words, why settle for rocks when they can have gold(controlling the Pacific and south east Asian trade)

 

[Quinkana]

Japan's success in taking the whole region is dependent IMO on how involved the Europeans are. With this war, the Japanese and Dutch are about to drive the Spanish and Portuguese out but the French and English/British may become future contenders and Nusantara is just frankly huge.

Tbf I'd like a more split SEA with the Brits holding Malacca but at that point in time the Brits weren't really in SEA as they started being serious in the region at around the 19th century, and the Dutch tried to monopolise the spice route, which I think would be impossible ittl, and I'd think Japan would be well poised to take bits out of the Dutch like in Borneo and Malacca in the future.

Plus there are some parts of SEA like Siam and Vietnam that I just don't see Japan ever taking beyond alliance and maybe protectorate.

I think allying with them would be prudent for Japan and if they can get Vietnam to expand inland and take Yunnan from the Chinese, which is rich with mineral wealth.

Exactly. Furs are a big deal. People shouldn't put down the fur trade. The French claimed all of New France just for furs and made a killing off of it. Also whaling and fishing, the North Pacific and Arctic stocks are huge where that is concerned and the Japanese love their fish and whales. They have many reasons both economic and strategic to expand into Siberia and Alaska and they are well placed for it geographically. Heck, they even have a great border to go to in Siberia. The Lena River would neatly demarcate their border.

Yeah there's a reason why the British and French fought multiple wars for this very resource. Japan can just sell the finished product to China and make a killing out of it too, and I can't wait to see how furs get incorporated into Japanese clothing. Japan also is in contact with sea otters already in Hokkaido and I could see them expand to the Aleutians and Alaska for the sea otter furs, which are the most expensive.

Tbf it's nowadays that furs have decreased in value, but at that time furs were quite the important economic resource.

Indeed yes though China I doubt will really be able to actually exert authority over Japan, it will tie them closer economically and culturally.

Tbf places like the lanfeng republic should be Japanese friendly and be incorporated into the Japanese sphere. I do think places like Sulawesi and east Borneo are more susceptible to Japanese rule.

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lanfang_Republic&ved=2ahUKEwijvbSxqrD8AhWCScAKHQaqBBwQmhN6BAgQEAI&usg=AOvVaw1wTwSZ5jZ5LA78Rmtvj8P_

It's likely a combined Japanese-Chinese group becomes the dominant class in Japanese ruled territories in SEA. China in this era after all still has a huge cultural influence on its neighbours.

Yep that are my thoughts on how Japan could rule SEA - by basically making a plurality between Chinese and Japanese ppl and dividing everyone else.

Normally I would agree but you also have to take unto consideration that outside of natives and the Russians, no one was really claimoring about Siberia, especially a Japan that has much bigger prizes in Asia than to go and occupy gigantic stretches of Frozen land without any beneficial return, even something like the war in the Philippines will bring a big island full of taxable peasants and capacity of growing tropical goods instead of them sinking money, ships and people into some area that is cold most of the year and only brings furs?

As I've said Japan has the best furs the world over could get in the seas so control of the seas is very important, and I'd think Russia wouldn't have much of what Japan wants. My idea on Siberian colonisation is basically the north basically makes a company and starts dealing in furs so it doesn't make sense to use the rocks vs gold analogy since it's not gov oriented.

That's not even to mention the fact the Russians wouldn't be driven towards converting (although being allowed to would be nice) nor would they immediately act militarily towards the japanese, more seeking trade than anything. So why would Japan start a aggression war against a seemingly amicable country who wants to trade things it craves and things it can sell to a new buyer on the fact they can get... Ports that freeze in winter and extremely cold land.

Tbf I think they're inclined to be militarily antagonistic as they definitely skirmished with the Chinese and Koreans in the 1650s and I'd think Japan would hear of it and be wary of the Russians. Also, there's no way the Japanese would allow a Pacific fleet to form, and even if the Russians get those lands at first the moment they start getting a navy around those areas the Japanese have to act. It's about protecting national security and economic dominance over the region.

 

[Tertius711]

Tbf I'd like a more split SEA with the Brits holding Malacca but at that point in time the Brits weren't really in SEA as they started being serious in the region at around the 19th century, and the Dutch tried to monopolise the spice route, which I think would be impossible ittl, and I'd think Japan would be well poised to take bits out of the Dutch like in Borneo and Malacca in the future.

I think allying with them would be prudent for Japan and if they can get Vietnam to expand inland and take Yunnan from the Chinese, which is rich with mineral wealth.

Yeah there's a reason why the British and French fought multiple wars for this very resource. Japan can just sell the finished product to China and make a killing out of it too, and I can't wait to see how furs get incorporated into Japanese clothing. Japan also is in contact with sea otters already in Hokkaido and I could see them expand to the Aleutians and Alaska for the sea otter furs, which are the most expensive.

Tbf it's nowadays that furs have decreased in value, but at that time furs were quite the important economic resource.

Tbf places like the lanfeng republic should be Japanese friendly and be incorporated into the Japanese sphere. I do think places like Sulawesi and east Borneo are more susceptible to Japanese rule.

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lanfang_Republic&ved=2ahUKEwijvbSxqrD8AhWCScAKHQaqBBwQmhN6BAgQEAI&usg=AOvVaw1wTwSZ5jZ5LA78Rmtvj8P_

Yep that are my thoughts on how Japan could rule SEA - by basically making a plurality between Chinese and Japanese ppl and dividing everyone else.

As I've said Japan has the best furs the world over could get in the seas so control of the seas is very important, and I'd think Russia wouldn't have much of what Japan wants. My idea on Siberian colonisation is basically the north basically makes a company and starts dealing in furs so it doesn't make sense to use the rocks vs gold analogy since it's not gov oriented.

Tbf I think they're inclined to be militarily antagonistic as they definitely skirmished with the Chinese and Koreans in the 1650s and I'd think Japan would hear of it and be wary of the Russians. Also, there's no way the Japanese would allow a Pacific fleet to form, and even if the Russians get those lands at first the moment they start getting a navy around those areas the Japanese have to act. It's about protecting national security and economic dominance over the region.

Exactly. It’s not a question of North vs South. Why choose at all? Fur and Spices! Genius!

And they can absolutely pull it off because the Russian heartland is so goddamn far away from the Pacific coast. The Japanese can concentrate most of their efforts on the south and not have to do much effort in the north beyond showing up and claiming stuff.

I like your thoughts on the rest and do agree. I will note that the Dutch historically did hold Melaka for a time so perhaps Britain will muscle in eventually. Or maybe France will.

 

[Kurd Gossemer]

Tbf I'd like a more split SEA with the Brits holding Malacca but at that point in time the Brits weren't really in SEA as they started being serious in the region at around the 19th century, and the Dutch tried to monopolise the spice route, which I think would be impossible ittl, and I'd think Japan would be well poised to take bits out of the Dutch like in Borneo and Malacca in the future.

I think allying with them would be prudent for Japan and if they can get Vietnam to expand inland and take Yunnan from the Chinese, which is rich with mineral wealth.

Yeah there's a reason why the British and French fought multiple wars for this very resource. Japan can just sell the finished product to China and make a killing out of it too, and I can't wait to see how furs get incorporated into Japanese clothing. Japan also is in contact with sea otters already in Hokkaido and I could see them expand to the Aleutians and Alaska for the sea otter furs, which are the most expensive.

Tbf it's nowadays that furs have decreased in value, but at that time furs were quite the important economic resource.

Tbf places like the lanfeng republic should be Japanese friendly and be incorporated into the Japanese sphere. I do think places like Sulawesi and east Borneo are more susceptible to Japanese rule.

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lanfang_Republic&ved=2ahUKEwijvbSxqrD8AhWCScAKHQaqBBwQmhN6BAgQEAI&usg=AOvVaw1wTwSZ5jZ5LA78Rmtvj8P_

Yep that are my thoughts on how Japan could rule SEA - by basically making a plurality between Chinese and Japanese ppl and dividing everyone else.

As I've said Japan has the best furs the world over could get in the seas so control of the seas is very important, and I'd think Russia wouldn't have much of what Japan wants. My idea on Siberian colonisation is basically the north basically makes a company and starts dealing in furs so it doesn't make sense to use the rocks vs gold analogy since it's not gov oriented.

Tbf I think they're inclined to be militarily antagonistic as they definitely skirmished with the Chinese and Koreans in the 1650s and I'd think Japan would hear of it and be wary of the Russians. Also, there's no way the Japanese would allow a Pacific fleet to form, and even if the Russians get those lands at first the moment they start getting a navy around those areas the Japanese have to act. It's about protecting national security and economic dominance over the region.

Not exactly, Japan and Russia actually had pretty good cordial relationship when Meiji era started and Japan became open to the world again, both had a interest in Korea and China as well as commercial reasons to stay close with one another and realized working together was better since it kept others out and allowed them to better influence China. It was only with Nicholas II as well as his obsession with warm water port that led him favoring China and souring relations with Japan.

Here with a more international and diplomacy wizened Japan, they would see the advantages of having the Russians around as a third power to squeeze the Koreans and Chinese, especially if they get a treaty recognizing each other's borders (as they did OTL seeing as despite tensions regarding Russian adventures in Hokkaido, it never went beyond the diplomatic table), especially as the Russian position on the far east is still relatively small and having a regional power around who can keep Siberia safe(even if there wasn't a need because no one was raiding Siberia) is a nice guarantee.

So speaking both economically and logically, Japan really has no business throwing away money in some adventure in Siberia that doesn't net much profit, as furs aren't really much compared to selling spices and tropical goods like sugar. Not to mention, that if the Dutch are anything to go by(another distant people who don't threaten Japan and are interested in trade), the japanese are more than well aware that allying with a European power to secure their Blindspots is great, since they don't have the fear the Russians who would be busy securing Siberia and messing with China to try and grab anything from Japan, especially as they too have no business in their territory.

 

[Tertius711]

Not exactly, Japan and Russia actually had pretty good cordial relationship when Meiji era started and Japan became open to the world again, both had a interest in Korea and China as well as commercial reasons to stay close with one another and realized working together was better since it kept others out and allowed them to better influence China. It was only with Nicholas II as well as his obsession with warm water port that led him favoring China and souring relations with Japan.

Here with a more international and diplomacy wizened Japan, they would see the advantages of having the Russians around as a third power to squeeze the Koreans and Chinese, especially if they get a treaty recognizing each other's borders (as they did OTL seeing as despite tensions regarding Russian adventures in Hokkaido, it never went beyond the diplomatic table), especially as the Russian position on the far east is still relatively small and having a regional power around who can keep Siberia safe(even if there wasn't a need because no one was raiding Siberia) is a nice guarantee.

So speaking both economically and logically, Japan really has no business throwing away money in some adventure in Siberia that doesn't net much profit, as furs aren't really much compared to selling spices and tropical goods like sugar. Not to mention, that if the Dutch are anything to go by(another distant people who don't threaten Japan and are interested in trade), the japanese are more than well aware that allying with a European power to secure their Blindspots is great, since they don't have the fear the Russians who would be busy securing Siberia and messing with China to try and grab anything from Japan, especially as they too have no business in their territory.

They had a ‘good’ relationship in a completely different timeline where Russia held those lands for centuries! Guess what, within 40 years of the Meiji Restoration they were at each other’s throats. Japan and Russia just do not get along long term.

 

[Kurd Gossemer]

They had a ‘good’ relationship in a completely different timeline where Russia held those lands for centuries! Guess what, within 40 years of the Meiji Restoration they were at each other’s throats. Japan and Russia just do not get along long term.

You're being too deterministic, they didn't need to get in conflict with one another because neither had something the other wanted enough to go to war, even the issue of Sakhalin and the like was resolved through diplomacy and both powers had mutual interest in China and Korea yes, but they also realized China was too big and worked together to squeeze out advantages while Korea was never seen as a serious prize by the Russians who let the japanese have them.

And about the Russo-Japanese war, that was again because Nicholas II was a fool who kept going on about having a warm water port in the region not realizing the area wasn't too profitable, especially compared to the land routes that already went through China. So the breakdown of japanese and Russian relationship wasn't bound to happen, hell without that obsession with the warm port, the relation would've remained cordial as both powers were satisfied with their borders and were looking at the much bigger prize: China.

Same thing will probably happen here, Japan focusing on Korea and China alongside the south east Asia to essentially make it their region, while Russia can stay with their massive stretches of land and squeeze China when both needed it. Both countries have much more to gain working together than simply starting another war on the basis "of because I said so"

 

[Tertius711]

You're being too deterministic, they didn't need to get in conflict with one another because neither had something the other wanted enough to go to war, even the issue of Sakhalin and the like was resolved through diplomacy and both powers had mutual interest in China and Korea yes, but they also realized China was too big and worked together to squeeze out advantages while Korea was never seen as a serious prize by the Russians who let the japanese have them.

And about the Russo-Japanese war, that was again because Nicholas II was a fool who kept going on about having a warm water port in the region not realizing the area wasn't too profitable, especially compared to the land routes that already went through China. So the breakdown of japanese and Russian relationship wasn't bound to happen, hell without that obsession with the warm port, the relation would've remained cordial as both powers were satisfied with their borders and were looking at the much bigger prize: China.

Same thing will probably happen here, Japan focusing on Korea and China alongside the south east Asia to essentially make it their region, while Russia can stay with their massive stretches of land and squeeze China when both needed it. Both countries have much more to gain working together than simply starting another war on the basis "of because I said so"

What you aren’t understanding is that a Japan who never went isolationist will have Sakhalin and the Kurils and Kamchatka very early on. And that means they consider the Sea of Okhotsk their turf. That is why they will be opposed to Russia. If Russia is ok with staying away from their coastal turf then sure they’ll work together. If not? Then it’s not happening. It’s as simple as that.

 

[Ambassador Huntsman]

Why Ayutthaya in particular and not Manila or Macau, though?

Ayutthaya is the largest Nihonmachi and is even home to a prominent samurai clan, the Honjo clan, that's proven to be a power player in the entire Siamese kingdom, so Japanese merchants have disproportionate influence there compared to the rest of Southeast Asia. It'll be explained more in the next Ayutthaya-focused update.

 

[Kurd Gossemer]

What you aren’t understanding is that a Japan who never went isolationist will have Sakhalin and the Kurils and Kamchatka very early on. And that means they consider the Sea of Okhotsk their turf. That is why they will be opposed to Russia. If Russia is ok with staying away from their coastal turf then sure they’ll work together. If not? Then it’s not happening. It’s as simple as that.

The islands I can see them settling but not much beyond that, remember that outside of some Siberian tribes Russia didn't have many enemies in the region, they'll more likely be keeping guard against the Chinese than anything and any ship that the japanese do find would be a commercial or exploration one especially as the Pacific fleet was only a thing way letter on due to Russian Alaska and even then it wasn't that important, it took well into the mid 19th century with the forceful opening of China by the British for the Russians to seriously start investing in the admiralty there, and even then it was neglected (see the lack of ships there in the Russo Japanese war)

 

[Tertius711]

The islands I can see them settling but not much beyond that, remember that outside of some Siberian tribes Russia didn't have many enemies in the region, they'll more likely be keeping guard against the Chinese than anything and any ship that the japanese do find would be a commercial or exploration one especially as the Pacific fleet was only a thing way letter on due to Russian Alaska and even then it wasn't that important, it took well into the mid 19th century with the forceful opening of China by the British for the Russians to seriously start investing in the admiralty there, and even then it was neglected (see the lack of ships there in the Russo Japanese war)

Why not? You know Russia not having much enemies is also great for Japan? Why won’t they seek to colonize the region for them lucrative furs and make cash? So so close to their inevitable colonies of Karafuto and Kamchatka and Kurils too.

 

[Quinkana]

Exactly. It’s not a question of North vs South. Why choose at all? Fur and Spices! Genius!

I'm pretty sure the ppl in Hokkaido (especially the nobles) would want to get rich, and if they're the first to get to sea otters they'd make a shit ton of money and want to expand their hunting grounds as they explore the sea of ohtosk and the Aleutians.

And they can absolutely pull it off because the Russian heartland is so goddamn far away from the Pacific coast. The Japanese can concentrate most of their efforts on the south and not have to do much effort in the north beyond showing up and claiming stuff.

Yep. Japan can field navies and armies much more easily than russia. I'd think it'd be easy to get infantrymen and sailors from the settlers of hokkaido/

I like your thoughts on the rest and do agree. I will note that the Dutch historically did hold Melaka for a time so perhaps Britain will muscle in eventually. Or maybe France will.

ye I think it'd work well. Maybe Britain also takes bits of sumatra.

So speaking both economically and logically, Japan really has no business throwing away money in some adventure in Siberia that doesn't net much profit, as furs aren't really much compared to selling spices and tropical goods like sugar. Not to mention, that if the Dutch are anything to go by(another distant people who don't threaten Japan and are interested in trade), the japanese are more than well aware that allying with a European power to secure their Blindspots is great, since they don't have the fear the Russians who would be busy securing Siberia and messing with China to try and grab anything from Japan, especially as they too have no business in their territory.

Not making as much profit as the trade in the south has no meaning when exploiting it makes the area around hokkaido much more lucrative. Considering the Dutch would really like the sea otter fur that the japanese get around the kurils it'd pay for the settling of siberia and alaska (and exploit beavers in Manchuria) and act as a good reason to kick the russians out. It isn't a zero sum game where the entire nation moves in one direction, the Japanese up north want to have opportunities too. Would they garner less attention than SEA? Yeah. But it would be enough to snuff out Russian coastal control in the Far East.

You're being too deterministic, they didn't need to get in conflict with one another because neither had something the other wanted enough to go to war, even the issue of Sakhalin and the like was resolved through diplomacy and both powers had mutual interest in China and Korea yes, but they also realized China was too big and worked together to squeeze out advantages while Korea was never seen as a serious prize by the Russians who let the japanese have them.

tbf thinking Russia would get to the pacific coast is very deterministic too. Japan ittl has a lot of resources to explore the north seas and also the connection to the europeans to want to export the furs of sea otters (which was seen as the best fur around, and the ainu would be giving various pelts as gifts to the Japanese, so I'd think the dutch would notice) and would make hokkaido a better place to immigrate to than otl, which is good for further colonisation of the region (Canada was settled for the fur trade). Also, the Japanese don't gain much by trading with the Russians since the trans siberian railway isn't built, and Russian control over the region is nominal. Japan makes their own guns, and they can hunt the best fur they could find in the Kurils. Instead, Japan's primary directive it to prevent the Russians from exploiting that resource that the Japanese are exploiting. This makes conflict much more likely, and that's why I think Japan would try to lock out Russian oceanic access to prevent Russian sailors from hunting sea otters, which would lead to conflict over the coastal regions of the Sea of Ohtosk.

The islands I can see them settling but not much beyond that, remember that outside of some Siberian tribes Russia didn't have many enemies in the region, they'll more likely be keeping guard against the Chinese than anything and any ship that the japanese do find would be a commercial or exploration one especially as the Pacific fleet was only a thing way letter on due to Russian Alaska and even then it wasn't that important, it took well into the mid 19th century with the forceful opening of China by the British for the Russians to seriously start investing in the admiralty there, and even then it was neglected (see the lack of ships there in the Russo Japanese war)

It's more about preventing the Russians from getting to the sea otter areas as I don't think the Russians would care about Japanese demands at first since they'd not know the Japanese are there. Then the situation escalates.

And about the Russo-Japanese war, that was again because Nicholas II was a fool who kept going on about having a warm water port in the region not realizing the area wasn't too profitable, especially compared to the land routes that already went through China. So the breakdown of japanese and Russian relationship wasn't bound to happen, hell without that obsession with the warm port, the relation would've remained cordial as both powers were satisfied with their borders and were looking at the much bigger prize: China.

China won't be a prize until the middle to late 19th century, you're talking about things two centuries earlier. Japan won't have the power to get anything on mainland china, even if the navy of China is relatively weak. China did have comparable cannonry and breech loading matchlocks at that time, and as the battle of fort zeelandia showed they could fight the Dutch effectively too. It was the later closing off which made China progressively weaker until they could no longer resist the Europeans. While I think China when weak is very ineffective but at that time it wasn't the case. tbf it makes the later Qing armies with swords fighting the europeans even more shocking really. When China skirmished against the Cossaks they definitely won the battle too.

Ayutthaya is the largest Nihonmachi and is even home to a prominent samurai clan, the Honjo clan, that's proven to be a power player in the entire Siamese kingdom, so Japanese merchants have disproportionate influence there compared to the rest of Southeast Asia. It'll be explained more in the next Ayutthaya-focused update.

ooh that's interesting would there be a marriage between the Siamese and the Honjo clan? It would bind Siam and Japan together which would be good for both countries.

 

[Tertius711]

I'm pretty sure the ppl in Hokkaido (especially the nobles) would want to get rich, and if they're the first to get to sea otters they'd make a shit ton of money and want to expand their hunting grounds as they explore the sea of ohtosk and the Aleutians.

Yep. Japan can field navies and armies much more easily than russia. I'd think it'd be easy to get infantrymen and sailors from the settlers of hokkaido/

ye I think it'd work well. Maybe Britain also takes bits of sumatra.

Not making as much profit as the trade in the south has no meaning when exploiting it makes the area around hokkaido much more lucrative. Considering the Dutch would really like the sea otter fur that the japanese get around the kurils it'd pay for the settling of siberia and alaska (and exploit beavers in Manchuria) and act as a good reason to kick the russians out. It isn't a zero sum game where the entire nation moves in one direction, the Japanese up north want to have opportunities too. Would they garner less attention than SEA? Yeah. But it would be enough to snuff out Russian coastal control in the Far East.

tbf thinking Russia would get to the pacific coast is very deterministic too. Japan ittl has a lot of resources to explore the north seas and also the connection to the europeans to want to export the furs of sea otters (which was seen as the best fur around, and the ainu would be giving various pelts as gifts to the Japanese, so I'd think the dutch would notice) and would make hokkaido a better place to immigrate to than otl, which is good for further colonisation of the region (Canada was settled for the fur trade). Also, the Japanese don't gain much by trading with the Russians since the trans siberian railway isn't built, and Russian control over the region is nominal. Japan makes their own guns, and they can hunt the best fur they could find in the Kurils. Instead, Japan's primary directive it to prevent the Russians from exploiting that resource that the Japanese are exploiting. This makes conflict much more likely, and that's why I think Japan would try to lock out Russian oceanic access to prevent Russian sailors from hunting sea otters, which would lead to conflict over the coastal regions of the Sea of Ohtosk.

It's more about preventing the Russians from getting to the sea otter areas as I don't think the Russians would care about Japanese demands at first since they'd not know the Japanese are there. Then the situation escalates.

China won't be a prize until the middle to late 19th century, you're talking about things two centuries earlier. Japan won't have the power to get anything on mainland china, even if the navy of China is relatively weak. China did have comparable cannonry and breech loading matchlocks at that time, and as the battle of fort zeelandia showed they could fight the Dutch effectively too. It was the later closing off which made China progressively weaker until they could no longer resist the Europeans. While I think China when weak is very ineffective but at that time it wasn't the case. tbf it makes the later Qing armies with swords fighting the europeans even more shocking really. When China skirmished against the Cossaks they definitely won the battle too.

ooh that's interesting would there be a marriage between the Siamese and the Honjo clan? It would bind Siam and Japan together which would be good for both countries.

I agree with basically everything you’ve said lol. We are so in sync, almost too much.

Siam and Japan being allied is interesting as well as Siam can reduce the burden on Japanese control of Malaya if that is the eventual goal. Northern Malaya is considered part of their SOI.

Bit of an unrelated topic but I’d be very interested to see a more diverse colonization. Maybe French Australia? That would really spice up the SEA/Oceania region

 

[Quinkana]

Bit of an unrelated topic but I’d be very interested to see a more diverse colonization. Maybe French Australia? That would really spice up the SEA/Oceania region

tbf Dutch Australia would be a fun concept, and the Dutch were there long before anyone else. It'd go against how they colonise stuff tho, which I dislike. The Dutch really didn't do much settler colonialism since it was very company oriented. Maybe the dutch sponsor the french protestants to move to the interior of South Africa or Australia? idk how'd that work. Maybe ostrich feathers become popular earlier and more europeans go to colonise south africa as a result?

I agree with basically everything you’ve said lol. We are so in sync, almost too much.

lol agreeing with each other's good.

Siam and Japan being allied is interesting as well as Siam can reduce the burden on Japanese control of Malaya if that is the eventual goal. Northern Malaya is considered part of their SOI.

Yep. I could see Siam being an important part of the Japanese colonial system. Maybe they try to expand into Burmas too?