IJN Carrier attack on Hawaii - January 1942. Wargame for thread in progress.

[adam888]

It's not likely the IJN would be aggressive in the short term other than carrying out their immediate agenda. 1942 is going to be long year but conservative usage of the Yorktown and Wasp and a lot more land based planes for Australia and Hawaii along with perhaps a British carrier might make it tolerable.

 

[phx1138]

With the IJN I might have cleared out Midway first and waited for the US to try to catch me before I landed at Midway.

Within the bounds of the rules & setup, you couldn't do it. I had to start 13 squares out from any U.S. territory, so the invasion force was 13 turns, minimum, from Midway. The very best I could hope for was the force not to be spotted before reaching strike range (or, in this instance, range to run in & lay down gunfire in the dark).

 

[zert]

Within the bounds of the rules & setup, you couldn't do it. I had to start 13 squares out from any U.S. territory, so the invasion force was 13 turns, minimum, from Midway. The very best I could hope for was the force not to be spotted before reaching strike range (or, in this instance, range to run in & lay down gunfire in the dark).

Ok just to be sure I understand, your invasion force had to start 13 squares away, so 13 turns to get to Midway. Why could you not send your carriers out to Midway, wipe out the defenders and then ambush the US fleet as they approached. Have your subs been stationed outside of Pearl to whittle down any ships departing. Your float scouts based to cover the approached to Midway.

But as I said, this is Monday morning quarterbacking and I may have the rules goofed up. You still did a hell of a job and I congratulate your performance.

 

[phx1138]

Ok just to be sure I understand, your invasion force had to start 13 squares away, so 13 turns to get to Midway. Why could you not send your carriers out to Midway, wipe out the defenders and then ambush the US fleet as they approached. Have your subs been stationed outside of Pearl to whittle down any ships departing. Your float scouts based to cover the approached to Midway.

If I'm reading you right, you mean turn it from an invasion force into an occupation or mop-up force.

It could have worked. My concern, given what happened when I hit Oahu, is the cost in a/c. Would I be sacrificing my ability to find & sink the USN CVs I know are around somewhere? Would I be sacrificing my ability to cripple the facilities at Oahu? Might I even be risking loss of CVs?

It might be possible. I don't think it's something I'd do.

Which is actually a kind of odd position for me to take, since for a very long time I agreed with Harry Palmer from Spy Story: they're just bits of plastic. Not so simple if you want to achieve a goal with them...

 

[Glenn239]

IMO, I made one other crucial mistake: not placing a tanker force between Oahu & Midway, for fuelling en route. As a result, I lost at least a couple of turns having to divert for fuelling, enough it may've cost me a shot at Lex in the dark.

You'd have probably lost the tanker force, actually. As it was, the US player came within an ace of discovering your main tanking force early in the game - it was under cloud and Mike rolled a '1' for no contact.

Finally, let me repeat what I said to Glenn: I disagree, in this context, intel would be decisive. IMO, this game reflects the importance of recce, the same way OTL Midway did.

Both players were economizing on scouting early, doing shorter ranged 'gigs' in order to preserve striking strength. The IJN had the advantage of 7th and 8th CRU DIV (which provided one scout each per turn), but a near disaster on day 2 caused Kevin not to skimp - all searches were out to 300 miles after that.

Mike's position was more difficult and better at the same time. Around Hawaii his resources were awesome, but offshore he had to rely too much on the carriers. When he was down to Lexington, he had a real problem between scouting and strike allocation. At the start of the scenario, Mike had the option to deploy PBY's to the anchorages between Hawaii and Midway. The game seems to show that doing so might have really effected USN operations, since many of the IJN moves were near to these points.

Knowing the enemy is coming, as I presume Dilvish did, still doesn't mean he knows where I am, or what I intend. He still has to find me, & me, him.

The problem seemed to be that you had multiple avenues of advance, and Mike had to either not defend or split his forces. He chose to divide, with the submarines in the south forming a picket towards the Marshalls with Lexington, and the two carriers in the north, with the battleships in Pearl Harbor.

With hindsight, maybe all three carriers operating east of Hawaii, a PBY scouting line in the shoals between Hawaii and Midway, and the battleship force at sea.

 

[phx1138]

You'd have probably lost the tanker force, actually. As it was, the US player came within an ace of discovering your main tanking force early in the game - it was under cloud and Mike rolled a '1' for no contact.

An attack on all of it could have hurt, but if split, I'd not have lost them all... Plus, there's at least some chance it either diverts attention or "wastes" an airstrike.

Both players were economizing on scouting early, doing shorter ranged 'gigs' in order to preserve striking strength.

For me, it was more a matter of trying to cover as much ocean as I could & still be able to strike if I found something. To some degree, it was getting to grips with the game system & how the seach/strike is done. As it turned out, & as I learned, it wouldn't have mattered if I used more search.

near disaster on day 2 caused Kevin not to skimp

That, I having a better idea where I should be searching.

Mike's position was more difficult

I see the point, but not having PBYs was making me very nervous.

Mike had the option to deploy PBY's to the anchorages between Hawaii and Midway. The game seems to show that doing so might have really effected USN operations, since many of the IJN moves were near to these points.

That would have created pretty serious problems for me in being detected later on, I think. It might have detected my invasion force sooner, too.

That said, once I managed to sink two CVs, even losing a couple myself, I was at an advantage in defending & counterattacking, so detection of the TF wouldn't have been an enormous harm.

The problem seemed to be that you had multiple avenues of advance, and Mike had to either not defend or split his forces. He chose to divide, with the submarines in the south forming a picket towards the Marshalls with Lexington, and the two carriers in the north, with the battleships in Pearl Harbor.

IMO, that's a pretty good disposition, & one OTL I'd have expected from Kimmel or Nimitz. In fact, had Kimmel gotten warning 7 Dec, this is what it might have looked like.

With hindsight, maybe all three carriers operating east of Hawaii, a PBY scouting line in the shoals between Hawaii and Midway, and the battleship force at sea.

That could have been the best option. Looking at the map, the "13 square" limit makes advance from due E or SE problematic, PBYs or no.

One question: had I left Akagi off Midway, would her fighters (any surviving) have had the option to strafe the airfield or facilities?

 

[zert]

Well with tactics, stategy, and reactions from your foe can make each play of a game different. I hope I have been clear I am not trying to be a backseat driver with my posts. It could well be that my ideas of an attack could have cost my side the war early. I would love to see another game/scenario/campaign played out. I miss going to some gaming clubs and conventions and watching players going head to head.

Well I will wonder if the IJN had more subs outside of Pearl if they would have damaged/sunk more battleships. Could the subs of penetrated into the harbor to engage ships at dock?

 

[phx1138]

I hope I have been clear I am not trying to be a backseat driver with my posts.

I'm certainly not taking it that way. If anything, IMO, you're doing what every AHr does: looking at an event & wondering, "What would I do? How would I change this?"

I It could well be that my ideas of an attack could have cost my side the war early.

Could be. Or you could be right.

I would love to see another game/scenario/campaign played out.

I'm willing.

Well I will wonder if the IJN had more subs outside of Pearl if they would have damaged/sunk more battleships. Could the subs of penetrated into the harbor to engage ships at dock?

Sunk more off the harbor, I think so. Prevented the sortie, maybe. (As it turned out, that would not have been good for me.) Penetrated? No. I asked about minisubs, & they were off the table. And putting a fleet boat inside needs somebody as crazy brave as Mush Morton. I don't think any IJN submariner had that much nerve.

 

[RCTFI]

Good to see how this turned out in the end. Congratulations to both of the players for fighting hard all the way. I wasn't really expecting the loss of the Lexington, at least not so quickly, and I will agree with the sentiment that's being shared that 1942 will be a long year for the USN in the Pacific ITTL.

Thanks to Glenn for GMing this!

 

[Dilvish]

I salute my opponent. Kevin planned well and fought well. Thank you for playing.

Thank you to Glenn for running the game and creating the scenario. Thank you to the audience out there for following along and offering your comments. This was great fun and I want to do this again.

I'll start by explaining my strategy for the last day. It seemed that the IJN carriers would have to move north to refuel that night. Therefore, Lexington and the cruisers would make a high speed dash for Midway, with the battleships lumbering behind. I had a tanker operating with my task forces; it was actually west of the Lexington TF when Midway was first attacked.

TF 5, with the 2 cruisers, would approach Midway and try to lure Japanese ships away from the island, perhaps within close range of the approaching Lexington. Lexington, I hoped, would stay a few zones ahead of the IJN carriers. She would launch an air raid at the Japanese invasion force, then withdraw during the night. Maybe, possibly, she could catch Japanese carriers unawares.

It was a desperate plan. In the end it worked with regards to saving Midway. And I was one die roll away from having Lexington avoid that final air strike.

 

[Dilvish]

So some months ago, I asked what would happen if the Japanese returned for a second Pearl Harbor Raid. I don't think I could have possibly predicted the outcome. This is the wildest dream of anyone who's posted "WI..." on this website. A massive simulation of the exact scenario, with a lot of fascinating discussion. Thank you, Glen239, phx1138 and Dilvish. It's been incredible.


While I don't think my original WI can be regarded as definitively "answered", I think the next logical question can only be...

WI Japan launches a 3rd Pearl Harbor Raid?!?!

Living in Exile,

You are welcome, and thank you for inspiring this game.

In answer to your question about a 3rd Pearl Harbor Raid, I'll say that it would be a bad idea. Of course, I said the same thing about a 2nd Pearl Harbor Raid. The Japanese did get messed up, but the Americans are even more messed up.

Japan could return with the carriers Zuikaku, Shokaku, Hiryu, Shoho, and Zuiho. I would add one or more of the other carriers as well. Wait three or four months, and Akagi and Soryu might be operational. It may be realistic to assume that air groups will need to be taken from other carriers to bring the first five I mentioned up to full strength.

In the meantime, Hornet is in the Pacific, and Saratoga is back from repairs. Wasp and or Ranger may be in the Pacific. The big addition to Hawaii's strength will be in air power. I ended the game with 16-18 steps of P-40s on Oahu, with a dozen or more steps of P-36s scattered around the islands. Hawaii's airfields can be reinforced quicker than either side's carriers.

 

[Flubber]

I do hope a "clean" version of this thread will be posted in the future. It will make it easier for people to follow the events.

Also, like many of the other posters, I'd like to thank to participants for their work.

 

[Dilvish]

You'd have probably lost the tanker force, actually. As it was, the US player came within an ace of discovering your main tanking force early in the game - it was under cloud and Mike rolled a '1' for no contact.

Both players were economizing on scouting early, doing shorter ranged 'gigs' in order to preserve striking strength. The IJN had the advantage of 7th and 8th CRU DIV (which provided one scout each per turn), but a near disaster on day 2 caused Kevin not to skimp - all searches were out to 300 miles after that.

Mike's position was more difficult and better at the same time. Around Hawaii his resources were awesome, but offshore he had to rely too much on the carriers. When he was down to Lexington, he had a real problem between scouting and strike allocation. At the start of the scenario, Mike had the option to deploy PBY's to the anchorages between Hawaii and Midway. The game seems to show that doing so might have really effected USN operations, since many of the IJN moves were near to these points.

The problem seemed to be that you had multiple avenues of advance, and Mike had to either not defend or split his forces. He chose to divide, with the submarines in the south forming a picket towards the Marshalls with Lexington, and the two carriers in the north, with the battleships in Pearl Harbor.

With hindsight, maybe all three carriers operating east of Hawaii, a PBY scouting line in the shoals between Hawaii and Midway, and the battleship force at sea.

I was that close to discovering Kevin's tankers? That would have been a worthy target.

I had forgotten about being able to start the game with PBYs to the anchorages between Hawaii and Midway. again. Though I can see that happening in real life for various reasons. The lack of long range recon in that long stretch of ocean hurt me the last couple of turns. Just like the limited long range recon I had at Midway to begin with hurt.

Midway should have received more PBYs. Kawai should have received more PBYs and B-17s. Though I probably concentrated the B-17s on Oahu to form a strong striking force of heavy bombers.

I remember now why my carriers were divided up with 2 in one task force and 1 in the other. I was following the USN doctrine at the time of assigning 3 heavy cruisers to a carrier. I had 12 heavy cruisers and one Brooklyn-class light cruiser. The CL St. Louis went with the BBs; I believe that would be their assignment in a general fleet engagement. 3 CAs with each carrier means only 3 CAs left over. I wanted a cruiser striking force, because well, I like cruisers, and hoped for a surface engagement. Putting Enterprise and Yorktown together allowed me to take a CA (or was it 2?) from the carriers and put in the cruiser striking task force.

(Note to all: I am not at all that well organized in real life.)

In retrospect, I should have followed USN carrier doctrine completely and operate the three carriers as three separate forces. Run the risk of losing one carrier to Kido Butai in exchange for being able to concentrate the rest of the fleet for an ambush.

Later on in the game, I borrowed from the historical Japanese playbook. Lexington was being reinforced with land-based carrier planes, with others moving westward along the islands. Moving those planes west only happened after I knew that Midway was now the target.

 

[Dilvish]

Within the bounds of the rules & setup, you couldn't do it. I had to start 13 squares out from any U.S. territory, so the invasion force was 13 turns, minimum, from Midway. The very best I could hope for was the force not to be spotted before reaching strike range (or, in this instance, range to run in & lay down gunfire in the dark).

You had me completely believing that your target was Oahu and my fleet. Hmm, in that respect, assigning Zuiho and Shoho to Kido Butai protected your invasion forces better than if they had been with the invasion forces.

By the way, you had a submarine seaplane carrier as well?! That was a cool addition to your force. Even more reason for me to have established bases at those anchorages. Could that submarine make torpedo attacks?

 

[Dilvish]

It's not likely the IJN would be aggressive in the short term other than carrying out their immediate agenda. 1942 is going to be long year but conservative usage of the Yorktown and Wasp and a lot more land based planes for Australia and Hawaii along with perhaps a British carrier might make it tolerable.

I am wondering what lessons both navies will take away from this battle. Will the USN decide that carrier raids on island bases will be too dangerous unless the carriers are in large numbers? Will the IJN think the same thing? The carriers can attack a powerful land base, or fight an enemy fleet, but not both.

Will the British Eastern Fleet try to venture east from the Indian Ocean? They will be the only carrier force that can help Australia in the next few months.

Hmm, I just had a brain storm. The US has two crippled heavy cruisers from this game. Would there be serious thought given to rebuilding them as light carriers? They are also already in the Pacific, if space can be found at West Coast shipyards.

 

[Dilvish]

this has been fun to read. I was a big board wargaming fan back in their heyday. A few years back, I solo-gamed out a "Battle of the Yellow Sea" scenario (using AH's 7th Fleet game) between the USN and the North Korean navy (such as it is) and posted it turn by turn on here (this was that tantrum that Kim Jong Il had when the US and SK conducted naval exercises in the Yellow Sea, taken to an extreme)...

Dave, is your "Battle of the Yellow Sea" still posted here? I have the 7th Fleet game as well. Did you use the scenario in the book?

 

[phx1138]

I salute my opponent. Kevin planned well and fought well. Thank you for playing.

Thank you. And, as easy as it may've seemed from outside, it wasn't. You had me guessing til the end. Plus, that final mission was a stunner to me.

Thank you to Glenn for running the game

Ditto & redoubled. He did so much of my "staff" work, he should be sharing victory credit with me. Thx so much, Glenn, for your patience.

I had a tanker operating with my task forces

I wanted to do that, but the tankers were all speed limited (1 sq/t). Were yours faster?

try to lure Japanese ships away from the island, perhaps within close range of the approaching Lexington

You almost had me doing it. I was hoping for a USN cruiser/BB force close enough I could engage at nightfall or at night, without leaving the beaches too exposed.

I also kept hoping I could deliver crippling blows & use my TF escort cruisers to finish the job...

Did Akagi draw Lex to Midway? Had I left her "dark", until my transports landed, could I have used her to defend the landing? (Presuming PBYs didn't find her, not a given.) IMO, that might have been enough to save my landing.

In answer to your question about a 3rd Pearl Harbor Raid, I'll say that it would be a bad idea.

Never. Attacking an alerted Oahu with air is suicidal.

Besides, the damage to the Fleet, & the facilities, is enough to buy the year or so IJHQ anticipated needing.

It also, IMO (& by now, you all now what I'm going to say next), tips the balance for Nimitz away from his CVs to his only remaining striking force...& that is extremely bad news for Japan. This may, in fact, have shortened the war appreciably.

I ended the game with 16-18 steps of P-40s on Oahu, with a dozen or more steps of P-36s scattered around the islands. Hawaii's airfields can be reinforced quicker than either side's carriers.

That alone argues against coming back, from the IJN POV.

I had forgotten about being able to start the game with PBYs to the anchorages between Hawaii and Midway.

Count me glad. It never crossed my mind. Tho, what with the sub refuelling of my Mavises, it should have.

limited long range recon I had at Midway to begin with hurt.

You did get some bad luck (or I some good), because I managed to avoid you spotting my invasion force thanks to some cloud the day turn before (two turns before?) I ran in. More PBYs there might have changed that, IDK. More at, frex, FFShoals might have, too.

Midway should have received more PBYs. Kawai should have received more PBYs and B-17s. Though I probably concentrated the B-17s on Oahu to form a strong striking force of heavy bombers.

In game terms, IMO, keeping the B-17s together as a strike force was a good idea. As I'm reading the map, either on Kauai makes approach from SE even less attractive...

I wanted a cruiser striking force, because well, I like cruisers, and hoped for a surface engagement.

I had the same hope, but I figured keeping cruisers with the CVs protected them while not restricting independent action; putting the rest with the Midway Force was the logical place. (For everyone's info, I got, & I presume Dilvish got, blank counters for TFs to confuse recce, & I filled out two CV TFs with cruisers for VSs, my CVs, & blanks.)

I did put two CLs with my tanker force; in retrospect, not sure that was essential.

In retrospect, I should have followed USN carrier doctrine completely and operate the three carriers as three separate forces. Run the risk of losing one carrier to Kido Butai in exchange for being able to concentrate the rest of the fleet for an ambush.

That would unquestionably have made my job harder.

OTOH, what might have happened was, while I'm stooging around Oahu looking for your CVs, I'm approaching Midway & putting troops ashore, getting your attention...just in time for me to hit Oahu with BBs.

Later on in the game, I borrowed from the historical Japanese playbook. Lexington was being reinforced with land-based carrier planes, with others moving westward along the islands. Moving those planes west only happened after I knew that Midway was now the target.

I found that finishing stroke very well played, indeed. I thought I was going to get a clean win; it appears the invasion might (would?) have been thrown off. (Your BBs could have done to my troops what mine did to yours.)

You had me completely believing that your target was Oahu and my fleet.

For me, it really was. In game terms, Midway was valuable, but my personal attention was on Oahu & the CVs.

Hmm, in that respect, assigning Zuiho and Shoho to Kido Butai protected your invasion forces better than if they had been with the invasion forces.

How so? Absorbing strikes? Or making Oahu look more important?

By the way, you had a submarine seaplane carrier as well?! That was a cool addition to your force. Even more reason for me to have established bases at those anchorages. Could that submarine make torpedo attacks?

I had my own "Op K". I take it my early recce over Oahu didn't reveal they were Mavises. I wondered if you'd notice & come looking. (Those searches, in the main, were negative, telling me only where the CVs werent.)

I am wondering what lessons both navies will take away from this battle. Will the USN decide that carrier raids on island bases will be too dangerous unless the carriers are in large numbers? Will the IJN think the same thing? The carriers can attack a powerful land base, or fight an enemy fleet, but not both.

I would hope they'd take the lesson of the value of good recce. More VSs for CAs? A stronger CA escort to augment TV scouting? More *SBDs? (There were OTL proposals for a dedicated recce type; IMO, a bad choice.)

Can I ask if you were flying "armed recce"? The SBDs OTL were supposed to be able to; AFAIK, in-game, I didn't have that option.

Hmm, I just had a brain storm. The US has two crippled heavy cruisers from this game. Would there be serious thought given to rebuilding them as light carriers? They are also already in the Pacific, if space can be found at West Coast shipyards.

I would guess, with the number built OTL, that won't be necessary.

I wonder if this puts paid to the USN BB force except for fire support.

My proposed reaction by Japan is upthread, so I won't repeat. Just one other thing: how much fuel oil has this burned? How much tanker traffic is going to be needed to make it up? How much new tanker construction (& so reduced freighter/cargo shipping)?

I would not want to be IJNHQ after this...

 

[zert]

Lot of revelations on tactics, deployments, and reactions. Just enjoying how things could have gone and what may have developed from losses. Now to see if Glenn or another will GM a new game anytime soon for fans like me.

 

[nbcman]

Thanks to the two players and to the GM for their participation in this this thread. It was a great read and a fascinating scenario.

 

[Carl Schwamberger]

....

Hmm, I just had a brain storm. The US has two crippled heavy cruisers from this game. Would there be serious thought given to rebuilding them as light carriers? They are also already in the Pacific, if space can be found at West Coast shipyards.

The hulls of several Essex class were on the construction ways & material for many more being assembled. The first were expected to be launched and then operational in a little over a year, mid 1943. Light carrier (CVE) construction was at roughly the same pace. Would this conversion have been significantly faster?