1958: Siri instead of Roncalli

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Deleted member 140587

What if Giuseppe Siri was elected Pope in 1958 instead of Angelo Roncalli?
 

Deleted member 140587

I am going to post a poll for possible successors to a Siri Papacy so please feel free to tell me who you think would follow Papa Siri in 1989
 
No Vatican Council II maybe a Vatican Council I part 2. No Ecumenism by Dialogue, yes to Ecumenism by returning (Uniatism).
 
Supposedly increased repression anywhere communism has a hold (the claim that the Soviets exercised a Veto on Siri). No rapprochement via liberation theology. A conservative church that either breaks apart under modern changes in the 1970s or, more likely, a more tribal Catholicism in the West ie the rapprochement of Catholics and protestants into ‘christians’ much alike is delayed or never occurs, and the divisions that existed into the 1960s - of separate societies, of Protestant and catholic shops, schools, employers, indursnce, hospitals, etc, continues. Considering the 1960s also coincides with the rise of Zionism as a force in the West and re-evaluation of World War 2 presents an interesting question as to what effect the continuing claim that Jews have no salvation outside the Church and that they continue to be arrogant or obstructive in denying Christ’s divinity just as their ancestors did in demanding Jesus’s death will have in the West and in views of World War 2 and the role of the Church in it, and in debates over Israel. No sedevacantism and so division of that portion of the ultra conservative right of the Church. Then it is up to what happens once he dies. I think he’d have reigned for 30 years so the world would be a different place by then. Perhaps Wotyla or another of his ilk - conservative, reactionary, communism and modernism focused. Or a radical change though I doubt Cardinals would be appointed who would have radical views after this amount of time.
 
There's an interesting history about the 1958 Conclave.

Apparently, there was an appearance of white smoke from the Sistine chimney on October 26th. However, officials said that it was an accident and that no pope had actually been elected. Two days later, Roncalli was elected pope.

That being said, it is plausible that Siri was elected pope and refused his election. If he did accept his election, then here's whatI think would have occured:

No Vatican Council II maybe a Vatican Council I part 2. No Ecumenism by Dialogue, yes to Ecumenism by returning (Uniatism).

Yes.

If there would ever be a council, it would at least condemn communism. I can see the Index still experiencing the same fate in OTL. The Oath Against Modernism is never removed, probably. Nouvelle théologie is viewed upon with intense suspicion, if not outright as a heresy. The Good Friday Prayer would not have changed.

The relationship between the contemporary world and the Church would be more polarized and hidden, internal dissent within the Church would eventually implode. Sadly, I see the formation of schisms in North America and Europe, while Asia, Africa, and Latin America are still loyal.

I am going to post a poll for possible successors to a Siri Papacy so please feel free to tell me who you think would follow Papa Siri in 1989

You can try, but it will be even more difficult to predict a reasonable successor to Papa Siri. A 30+ year reign will have a College of Cardinals that varies greatly than OTL. Almost every cardinal from the 1958 Conclave would be dead in 1989.

Instead, I would rather make a list of who would be cardinals in this timeline, compared to those who didn't. Assuming that Siri doesn't change the rules, the maximum number of cardinals during his lifetime would not exceed 70 and there would be no age limit for the cardinals who vote. I'd also include some alternate bishops/priests, too.

For example:
  • I can see Traditionalist bishops such as Lefebvre, de Castro Mayer, and Thục becoming cardinals.
  • Sedevacantism never exists and those priests who became Sedevacantists merely continue to be part of the official Church. Maybe some of them actually become legitimate bishops in the United States.
  • Perhaps Malachi Martin continues to be a priest?
 
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Deleted member 140587

You can try, but it will be even more difficult to predict a reasonable successor to Papa Siri. A 30+ year reign will have a College of Cardinals that varies greatly than OTL. Almost every cardinal from the 1958 Conclave would be dead in 1989.

Instead, I would rather make a list of who would be cardinals in this timeline, compared to those who didn't. Assuming that Siri doesn't change the rules, the maximum number of cardinals during his lifetime would not exceed 70 and there would be no age limit for the cardinals who vote. I'd also include some alternate bishops/priests, too.

For example:
  • I can see Traditionalist bishops such as Lefebvre, de Castro Mayer, and Thục becoming cardinals.
  • Sedevacantism never exists and those priests who became Sedevacantists merely continue to be part of the official Church. Maybe some of them actually become legitimate bishops in the United States.
  • Perhaps Malachi Martin continues to be a priest?
- I'd be interested if an SSPX-esque split would take place in more liberal countries (I can't see that massive a schism happening but as you said there would definitely be tensions). Who would lead it?

- I agree with you about Lefebvre, de Castro Mayer, and Thuc becoming cardinals. As for the future popes, I could still Wojtyla becoming a Cardinal in the 1967 (he was a Conservative after all). Whether he'd rise to the Papacy is a separate matter. As for Ratzinger, his future is a little more opaque. His pre-1968 status as a Liberal would not do much to help him in the eyes of a Church run by Conservatives. However, his strong defence of the faith in the 1970s and 1980s could also make him closer to Papa Siri, (perhaps even an ally?). As for Bergoglio, thirty years of a Siri-led Church would damage his chances of even becoming a bishop, let alone Pope.

There is a strong chance that the Church would want an Italian for Pope without the sudden death of Luciani to spur them on. I'm not that familiar with Conservative Italian Cardinals, but I am eager to learn some. If the Cardinals, on the other hand, decide they want a conservative non-Italian than Eugenio Sales (Brazil), Jean-Marie Lustiger (France), Marcel Lefebvre (France), and Jaime Sin (Philippines) might be reasonable picks (that is if they even rise to where they did in OTL). Or it could be Wojtyla or Ratzinger. Or it could be some random bishop that I'm not familiar with (this is definitely the most likely but I'm still gonna try to find Siri's successor).

- As for Malachi Martin, I'm not that familiar with him except for some vague knowledge about his works on Exorcisms. It appears he left the priesthood directly because of Vatican II so, yeah, he'd probably he stay an active priest.
 
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- I'd be interested if an SSPX-esque split would take place in more liberal countries (I can't see that massive a schism happening but as you said there would definitely be tensions). Who would lead it?

It's just speculation, but I've thought about the idea that if I were to write a story about a "Liberal Schism", I would have it occur in parts of France, Germany, Netherlands, Canada, and the United States. It may not be lead by any official members of the hierarchy, but by well-known theologians who were influential during the Council in OTL. (Rahner, Congar, Schillebeeckx, Kung, von Balthazar, etc.)

We could expect to see similar OTL things occur, such as the Winnipeg Statement, Land O'Lakes Statement, variations of local catechisms, and secret tinkerings with the liturgy.
 
With the butterflies you would have to go all the way to the parish priest level and choose different bishops. For that matter, different men going into the seminary.
 

Deleted member 140587

With the butterflies you would have to go all the way to the parish priest level and choose different bishops. For that matter, different men going into the seminary.
That is true. In OTL, Pope John XXIII's ascension to the papacy brought a resurgence to the Catholic Church as people were enthused by being able to hear mass said in their own tongue. Siri would almost certainly keep Latin the language of the church. The shape of the Catholic clergy would be different indeed.

It's just speculation, but I've thought about the idea that if I were to write a story about a "Liberal Schism", I would have it occur in parts of France, Germany, Netherlands, Canada, and the United States. It may not be lead by any official members of the hierarchy, but by well-known theologians who were influential during the Council in OTL. (Rahner, Congar, Schillebeeckx, Kung, von Balthazar, etc.)

We could expect to see similar OTL things occur, such as the Winnipeg Statement, Land O'Lakes Statement, variations of local catechisms, and secret tinkerings with the liturgy.
This is highly interesting. I agree that one couldn't be sure as to whether there'd be a schism or not. I do suspect this however: Siri's anti-communism would strangle liberation theology in it's cradle or at least badly cripple it. I just don't see Papa Siri backing Marx-inspired Jesuits in Latin America. This would have a big influence on the Cold War in Central and Southern America and on liberal Catholic theology.

As for the Catholic Church, I'm near positive that Siri's successor (whoever they are) will have one of three choices to make. One would be to fight off liberal attempts of reform (or fight off reconciliation with the schism led by liberal theologians), another would be compromise; to concede some points and defend some others (reconciliation would be the goal here), or, lastly, embrace the winds of change (perhaps a later and more conservative Vatican II). Given the potential butterflies on the College of Cardinals, it really depends on who ends up as Pope after Siri.
 
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