IIRC, i've read literatures about history of Taiwan and for the longest time it was ruled by a series of tribal confederations and petty kingdoms.
The Qing dominion at Taiwan is just a recent phenomenon (1650+) and it didn't last long after its first defeat against Japan in 1870(?). Their hold in Taiwan is only 50-70 years longer than Japan's.
tbf Taiwan was colonised by China before the Japanese, and that is why the Taiwanese-aboriginies don't like the majority Chinese population too. It's more that Taiwan has changed hands multiple times...
What Quinkana said, to the point that many people had nostalgia for Japanese rule after the KMT took over (though that was also due to KMT corruption).
that is a large part of why Taiwanese have a good impression of Japan, yeah. Taiwanese people were forced to all learn mandarin and the such, and hokkien was repressed too.
I don't think it's unrealistic for Japan to keep Taiwan ITTL, myself, unless they get into a war with the US. If it's just China, Japan's the dominant naval power, and you need major naval/ampohibious capabilities to take Taiwan. I'd say Taiwan could become a Prefecture in its own right by the modern era.
Yeah, if it's only Japan v China there's no way Taiwan would be able to become part of China. Hell, it is possible that if Japan wins Taiwan gets home rule as the government calms down post war.
Even if Japan goes to war, I wouldn't necessarily discount Japan keeping Taiwan. IOTL, it was only Chiang Kai-Shek's insistence that Taiwan be given back to China that saw the allies contemplate it. Even then, FDR agreed to the proposal purely to cultivate a good relationship with China and because the request was, IIRC, made towards the end of FDR's life so he might have been more permissive than otherwise.
If the Chinese do not make such demands as loudly or as resolutely as they did IOTL (or if the war with Japan is less bitter than OTL), the rest of the Allies might just not care enough to detach Taiwan from Japan. If China is instead viewed as a potential rival (due to an alliance with, say, Germany), then the USA might decide to keep Taiwan as part of Japan and use it as an unsinkable aircraft carrier next to China. Korea and Manchuria are sure to go, but Taiwan wasn't really paid attention to.
I think it depends on who is running the war and who's fighting what. If the European theatre is mostly against the Soviets (and mostly focused on keeping the Soviets in Russia instead of whatever the Nazis tried to do with American assistance) there is a possibility that the Americans ally with the Japanese so the Japan could take the Far East.
Or if Japan goes to war with America, the Chinese lobby is just different/Chiang isn't the leader of China Taiwan may very well be viewed as integral Japanese territory, or that after a period of American occupation the citizens of the island could vote to unify with China, Japan or independence.
Not reluctance, really. Apathy was more like it. It wasn't really perceived as Chinese (unlike Manchria), so it wasn't really included into considerations of what would go to China as a default course of action (again, unlike Manchuria). As Kosaki_MacTavish noted, China didn't really control Taiwan in any serious way for a long time. Even during the Qing Empire's rule, Taiwan was almost an afterthought.
Yeah the original reason why the Qing conquered the region is bc Ming remnants were there, and largely didn't care about Taiwan after. Taiwan is in a very different situation than Manchouko and Korea too, with substantial Japanese investment into Taiwan itself.
Also true. With a different situation in China, might have gone like Okinawa did OTL: directly administered by the US for strategic reasons for a time, then handed back to Japan in the 70s or so.
I think Taiwan would be contentious enough that America may just tell them to vote to see where they want to end up instead, since there would be pro and anti Chinese sentiments in Taiwan, not to mention independence movements post war.
