A Bomb in the Bush War?

[Kriegdämmerung]

Based off of a discussion I had with my Lit teacher and a few friends...

It's pretty much accepted that South Africa got the Bomb, and, until 1990, had at least six nuclear weapons before voluntarily dismatling them.

My question is, what if South Africa, as the war in Angola/SW Africa turned against them and the rebellion against apartheid grew stronger, had used the Bomb?

Where would they have used it?

What would the results have been?

Could the use of nuclear bomb against Soviet-backed forces in Angola and Namibia have validated a Soviet retalitory strike?

I think we have a few South Africans on the board, but I really don't know the answer, so if anyone could respond...

 

[HJ Tulp]

The South African atom bombs were never meant to be used. They were meant to force the Western powers to aid the Apartheid regime. When the going would get tough they would let the US and Europe choose between a nuclear war or aiding the Apartheidregime.

 

[JimmyJimJam]

They wouldnt use it.

 

[Atreus]

They wouldnt use it.

Put a right-wing afrikaaner regime in power during the 80s, right when things started to finally spin out of control, and let the opposition be a bit more violent, and suddenly a use of the bomb (demonstration, military targets of rebels, civilian towns, i've got no clue what they would actually target) becomes more likely. I doubt it would help the situation for anyone involved, however. Probably adds fuel to the fire, and extremists on both sides take full control. Mandela, De Klerk, and other pacifists and moderates lose traction. South Africa descends into complete chaos. Final outcome depends on how far the various leaders on both sides are willing to go.

 

[Riain]

I've done some reading on the SA bomb, it was speculated that U235 was only about 80% pure, compared to the usual 90-95% and US 98%. This would be enough to do a test and then send out a warning of nuke strikes, provoking the West to intervene on SA's side to avoid such strikes. As far as I'm concerned that is a good nuke strategy.

I think things would have to get pretty bad for SA to actually nuke an enemy target, and by then a Soviet counterstrike wouldn't seem like such a bad option.

 

[Corbell Mark IV]

Vortex

I read this book by Larry Bond and enjoyed it. It deals with a hotter bush war.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vortex_(novel)

Set up involves a hardline takeover of South Africa leading to invasion and counterinvasion.

Plot summary on link pretty much includes most of plot, so don't click on it if you might want to read it.

Hint: Battleship fans might like some of the action!

 

[mtg999]

The South African atom bombs were never meant to be used. They were meant to force the Western powers to aid the Apartheid regime. When the going would get tough they would let the US and Europe choose between a nuclear war or aiding the Apartheidregime.

I agree that this is the main reason that SA had the nukes. However would it really provoke the Western to intervene on behalf of SA? The domestic opposition in placeds such as the US and UK would have been massive. Especially in the US, with its significant African-American population, I think that any actual overt military intervention on the side on SA would have caused civil disorder. Yes, covert support financial and weapons etc would be given, but the idea of Western intervetion, ie in the style of Vietnam or Iraq is totally ASB.

 

[Hendryk]

This reminds me of a story by Flocculencio, "Marching to Pretoria", in which the premise is that SA splits up in 1956 between a liberal, English-speaking south, and a reactionary, Afrikaner-speaking north, and the latter develops a nuclear program.

 

[Marius]

SA using a nuke is ASBs in my opinion. The only way that it could happen would be for nutters to somehow gain control of the SA government, which is also pretty difficult. The South African military has always had a history of political neutrality, so I think an army supported right wing coup is ASBs as well to a large extent.

That said, I greatly enjoyed Bond's book. It was clear that he had done his research, and got a feel for the country, somehting which many foreigners, when writing about South Africa, fail to do.

 

[Japhy]

I have to agree the use of it would require ASB's, my question though is if South Africa were to use one of their bomb's, what would they target?

 

[Riain]

I think the West would intervene on SA's behalf when faced with the chioce of a) intervening on SA's side b) having SA detonate 6 nukes as it is overrun.

 

[Weaver]

The SA bombs were never meant to be used imo. They were acquired on the principle that it was impossible for a nuclear-armed State to be overthrown conventionally.

They were correct in a way, but the end came from a different direction.

There is another excellent novel on a super-power war spilling into SA in the eighties. "The Sixth Battle" by Barrett Tillman. Check it out on Amazon....it's better than the "Vortex" novel imo. Involves a US CVBG fighting Cubans and the rest with the Pretoria government in an invasion of the RSA.

 

[Bill Cameron]

I read this book by Larry Bond and enjoyed it. It deals with a hotter bush war.

Corbell,

Of course, the bomb in Bond's book was used against a division sized Cuban armored column and not against bush guerillas.

Here's a question to ask that Lit professor; How do you use a nuclear weapon against guerillas? Or against other small units? Even during the heavy fighting in what is now Namibia, the South Africans and Cubans tangled in only battalion or smaller sized units while supporting their native "allies". You don't swat flies with an axe.

Do you seriously think SA was going to nuke the capital of Angola or Zambia or Mozambique? Once they used a nuclear weapon, South Africa would have immediately lost whatever war they were fighting.


Bill

 

[mtg999]

I think the West would intervene on SA's behalf when faced with the chioce of a) intervening on SA's side b) having SA detonate 6 nukes as it is overrun.

I agree that many Western leaders especially conservative ones would be willing to support SA, but would they get public support for it? Any govt that intervened on behalf of apartheid would be voted out next time. Not to mention mass protests, like Vietnam war protests mulitiplied by 10.

Read the Wikipedia article on Bond's 'Vortex'. If the review is correct then the West intervenes to install moderates in power in SA, this is the only way I can see Western intervention happening, to pave the way for non-communist black majority rule.

 

[Kriegdämmerung]

Corbell,

Here's a question to ask that Lit professor; How do you use a nuclear weapon against guerillas? Or against other small units? Even during the heavy fighting in what is now Namibia, the South Africans and Cubans tangled in only battalion or smaller sized units while supporting their native "allies". You don't swat flies with an axe.

Do you seriously think SA was going to nuke the capital of Angola or Zambia or Mozambique? Once they used a nuclear weapon, South Africa would have immediately lost whatever war they were fighting.


Bill

To be fair, the professor in question was suggesting that the South Africans would use the weapon as a weapon of terror, bombing the Bantustans into submission, forcing the more militant factions of the Liberation to accept a ceasefire. I suggested that the South Africans would use the bomb on military and civilian targets in Angola and Southwest Africa, leading to the invasion of South Africa...

 

[Flocculencio]

This reminds me of a story by Flocculencio, "Marching to Pretoria", in which the premise is that SA splits up in 1956 between a liberal, English-speaking south, and a reactionary, Afrikaner-speaking north, and the latter develops a nuclear program.

So do the Indians, though, which comes in handy

 

[Riain]

I think intervention in South Africa would get a lot of public support if it stopped the war there from going nuclear. The precursor nuke test and worldwide announcement that nuke strikes would follow would alert Western publics and galvanise support behind intervention preventing nuke strikes. Even if intervention merely solidified the status quo on the ground that would prevent SA from being totally overrun and defeated.

 

[Marius]

To be fair, the professor in question was suggesting that the South Africans would use the weapon as a weapon of terror, bombing the Bantustans into submission, forcing the more militant factions of the Liberation to accept a ceasefire. I suggested that the South Africans would use the bomb on military and civilian targets in Angola and Southwest Africa, leading to the invasion of South Africa...

The Bantustans were apartheid client states, so there would be no need to "bomb them into submission". The apartheid government would not have allowed radical anti-apartheid governments to come to power in the Bantustans. People who took over in bantustans were generally apartheid stooges, with the notable exceptions of Mangosuthu Buthelezi in KwaZulu, and Bantu Holomisa in the Transkei.

The most likely use of a nuke would have been, as is described in Vortex, would have been bombing a battalion of enemy soldiers who had made it to South African territory, or were threatening to do so. If the SAns used nukes on a city or military installation in another country, any sympathy for them in the West would immediately be lost.

And they definitely wouldn't use nukes on military or civilian targets in Southwest Africa, as it was a de facto fifth province of South Africa at the time.

 

[Kriegdämmerung]

The Bantustans were apartheid client states, so there would be no need to "bomb them into submission". The apartheid government would not have allowed radical anti-apartheid governments to come to power in the Bantustans. People who took over in bantustans were generally apartheid stooges, with the notable exceptions of Mangosuthu Buthelezi in KwaZulu, and Bantu Holomisa in the Transkei.

The most likely use of a nuke would have been, as is described in Vortex, would have been bombing a battalion of enemy soldiers who had made it to South African territory, or were threatening to do so. If the SAns used nukes on a city or military installation in another country, any sympathy for them in the West would immediately be lost.

And they definitely wouldn't use nukes on military or civilian targets in Southwest Africa, as it was a de facto fifth province of South Africa at the time.

Very well...

Kind of off-topic, but you're from South Africa, aren't you?

 

[Marius]

Yeah, I am, from Jo'burg. I think I am not only the sole South African on the board, I think I am the only African member too.