A Decade of Death

[Kriegdämmerung]

1900-1910 was a decade of brutal wars and uprisings. The Russo-Japanese War, The Boxer Rebellion, the First Balkan War (okay, that was 1912, but it was close enough), and the rebellions in the Ottoman Empire. But one event could have pungled the decade into a veritable World War I, a decade early.

First, a little background: the Austrians annexed Bosnia-Herzegovina. Many feared that Russia and Serbia would declare war on Ausria-Hungary for this transegression, but ultimately German intimidation caused the Russians to back down. But what if it hadn't been that easy? What if Russia had declared war anyways?

I talked to my history teacher about this, and we both agreed that the resulting war would lead to a German victory and perhaps prevent WWI in 1914, or at least with an Eastern Front. I want to hear the board's opinions, and I plan to mention the second part of our aforementioned conversation later...

 

[Herr Frage]

Victory for the Kaisereich!

 

[wkwillis]

Serbia would have done worse because they didn't have trained and experienced troops like they did after the Balkan wars.
Russia might have done better. Experienced troops from the war with Japan would have been available. It was just after the postwar disturbances, though, so Russia decided to cool it. Interesting war because the German plan was to attack France whether they declared war on Germany or not.
Oh, France would have joined in after being attacked by Germany. But the French back then planned to meet the Germans in Belgium. So France does not have it's army in the wrong place and the battle is fought in Belgium, and then France is slowly forced backwards, a mile every week, for the next five years, evacuating it's industry along the way.
Germany had to import it's nitrates back then. They need to make sure that they can beat the Russian, French, probably Italian navy and keep imports coming. France will under all circumstances be able to import across the Channel. German battleships and French torpedo boats is not something the Kriegsmarine even wants to think about.
Unless Italy gets involved, and Rumania, and Bulgaria, and Greece, and Turkey, and who knows.
Britain? America? Not likely.

 

[Kriegdämmerung]

Serbia would have done worse because they didn't have trained and experienced troops like they did after the Balkan wars.
Russia might have done better. Experienced troops from the war with Japan would have been available. It was just after the postwar disturbances, though, so Russia decided to cool it. Interesting war because the German plan was to attack France whether they declared war on Germany or not.
Oh, France would have joined in after being attacked by Germany. But the French back then planned to meet the Germans in Belgium. So France does not have it's army in the wrong place and the battle is fought in Belgium, and then France is slowly forced backwards, a mile every week, for the next five years, evacuating it's industry along the way.
Germany had to import it's nitrates back then. They need to make sure that they can beat the Russian, French, probably Italian navy and keep imports coming. France will under all circumstances be able to import across the Channel. German battleships and French torpedo boats is not something the Kriegsmarine even wants to think about.
Unless Italy gets involved, and Rumania, and Bulgaria, and Greece, and Turkey, and who knows.
Britain? America? Not likely.

Basically, my scenario with the aforementioned history teacher led to Germany and Austria-Hungary defeating Russia and Serbia. In the process of this war, Italy, realizing the other two members of the Triple Alliance are busy, declares war on the Ottoman Empire for Albania, Libya and (insert other place here...)

Anyways, Germany and Austria-Hungary declare war on Italy. Fearing what recently happened to the Russians and Serbians, the other Balkan powers remain neutral. The end result, after a near-war with France, leads to a German Libya and German Somalialand, as well as an Austro-Hungarian vassalage of Albania. Kind of absurd, but again, I want coments people...