I really want to see a reaction to the rapid growth and belligerence of Portugal from British, French and American perspectives.
 
I'm glad Britain is getting a lot of expected and unexpected benefits from a resurgent Portugal. The UK will still mostly join America's "team" but will be a useful counterpoint to American belligerence against Portugal and their growing international presence.

I also would like to knows France's position in all this. Are they getting any new benefits from Portugal in the postwar world?
 

Lusitania

Donor
I really want to see a reaction to the rapid growth and belligerence of Portugal from British, French and American perspectives.
The attitudes of the three countries are grudgingly acceptance, indifference and wtf respectively. To get a thorough understanding we need to wait a little and see the upcoming Foreign Affairs post.

each country was facing their own internal issues. The British were in transition and survival mode, the French were in a “all about me” moment and the Americans were in the “I am king of the castle” mode and how dare you not do as I say.
 
I'm guessing the Oldest Alliance is going to get even older, although the Portugal cannot be considered the minor partner anymore.
 

Lusitania

Donor
I'm glad Britain is getting a lot of expected and unexpected benefits from a resurgent Portugal. The UK will still mostly join America's "team" but will be a useful counterpoint to American belligerence against Portugal and their growing international presence.

I'm guessing the Oldest Alliance is going to get even older, although the Portugal cannot be considered the minor partner anymore.

British-Portuguese relationship is one that has divided many people with some stating that British were partially responsible for the development and industrialization of Portugal. I think that is a bit naive since British started industrial revolution we can’t say they responsible for what all countries did.

The collapse of British industry and number of companies that folded or merged after the war was staggering. The British struggled just to feed themselves in the late 40s and Portuguese market and demand was a huge lifeline and for many the difference between shutting their doors and continue to operate. In time many of these firms followed their market. It was a slow process though, with assembly and finishing being the first to be transferred. This was eventually followed by actual manufacture of the components even do many British firms continued to thrive in Britain making components of parts for both British and Portuguese markets. It would take a major event several decades later to finally break the co-dependence of firms in both countries.

The interesting aspect is that British knew nothing different and iotl US was the culprit in the demise of British manufacturing here ittl the Portuguese are partially blamed even if British economy performing better than iotl and British government finances are perilous but not in such dire straights as iotl.

Even British military procurement was assisted by Portuguese market.

As for lopsided alliance issue yes there were many improvements with Portuguese standing on their own economically, politically and militarily for first time in centuries.

Lastly the need for Allies in face of belligerent American attitude was very much a reality. Doing any action that ran contrary to American interest could leave a country in perilous situation. The best example was Argentina iotl and how US actions and attitudes helped in its downfall. Other example is the American attitude towards Britain and France during Suez crises that led to Britain having to withdraw its troops under the American threat of facing imminent financial collapse.

I also would like to knows France's position in all this. Are they getting any new benefits from Portugal in the postwar world?

Good question France in many ways thought they were special case and did not have need for Portuguese model and since French industry were for most part shut out of Portuguese for post war years paid very little attention to the events going on in Portugal.

French political situation following the war was also not in great shape with several governments falling. There was large communist and socialist sentiment and support and just after war was fighting communist forces in French Indochina. Therefore the French really had their hands full and their attention was elsewhere.
 
Last edited:

Lusitania

Donor
Wouldn't the French Algerians at least be very interested in the Portuguese development?
You are correct to think that French would have most to gain from Portuguese federation model. The issue is in the 1940s would they need to? Or better yet would they feel they had to?

To understand that statement we need to review the prevailing attitude of the remaining colonial powers after WW2.

Britain- has never accepted the integration of its colonies including European settler colonies or dominions such as Canada and South Africa into a larger United Kingdom. After the war it accepted the need to grant most if not all it’s colonies independence. This had started in Asia with Middle East and indian subcontinent.

There was no desire to bring to Britain tens of thousands or hundreds of thousands of colonials. So Britain was not about to take any lessons from Portuguese.

Dutch - their largest colony, the Dutch East Indies was tearing itseft apart and Dutch were helpless to stop that. Only thing they could was to help a few of the countries that emerged from the war as best they could. Their remaining colonies were in the Americas. Would they take any advice or lessons from Portuguese? We wait and see.

France - this was one of the countries that could take some lessons. The French at end of WW2 were not prepared to let go of their Blue map and were fighting very hard to reclaim French Indochina the one part of their empire trying to become independent. In the 1940s French believed there was no problems with their French colonies and possessions in Africa and it would take the outset of the Algerian colonial war and loss of French Indochina in the 1950s to wake the French from their complacency.

Lastly want to touch on few major differences between Portugal and the other three countries mentioned above:

1) democratic vs limited voting - the truly democratic countries where each vote was same that tried to incorporate the people living in colonies would soon find themselves feeling power was being taken from them by the larger colonial population. On the other hand Portugal voting was controlled and the choices limited. Even opposition parties who started to appear had to adhere to basic concepts of federation and territory integrity in order to be part of the election process. So like communist countries that theoretically provided universal voting franchise but controlled government by limiting whom people could vote for. So too the Portuguese can nominate Africans and other non Europeans willing to work within the system as viable candidates for people to vote for. Meanwhile in French or British democracy independence or extremist parties are permitted and thus very different outcome would arise. So hard to see same concept arise in those countries.

2) economies - both Britain and France had very large industrial economies and large populations in Europe and their colonies were for most part underdeveloped with resource and agriculture as main economic activities. The Portuguese industrialization started much later and due to lack of resources, infrastructure and smaller population base had started their industrialization in both metropolitan Portugal and overseas provinces at almost the same time. Economic opportunities, smaller size and development had also forced them to disperse the Europeans people throughout the country. Iotl there was only 800,000 Europeans (aprox) in all Portuguese overseas provinces at time of 25 of April 1975. Here as we will see in the upcoming security section the European population is already double that by end of the 1940s.

3) Another aspect that we need to distinguish is the economic weight of the overseas provinces against the metropolitan Portugal and compare it to the relationship between France or Britain and their colonies. The actual numbers and comparisons will be discussed in future posts but I can now state that Portuguese numbers are 2-3 times higher than with France or Britain. Meaning the economic activity of the overseas provinces are much bigger percentage of the country’s GDP than say the other two more industrialized countries.
 
Last edited:
1940s - The Post War Years (1945 - 1949) - Economy (2 of 2)

Lusitania

Donor
1940 – 1949 (cont.)

The Post War Years 1945 – 1949 (cont.)

Economy (2 of 2)

Energy and Transportation
In Metropolitan Portugal, the construction of seven additional dams started in 1946 as well as the 12 thermal hydro stations half of which were finished by 1949 allowed for the first decrease albeit small of wholesale electricity rates. In the late 1940s the industrial development in Portuguese Africa started outpacing Metropolitan Portugal and the Portuguese government began planning large hydroelectric power projects to meet the growing demand in Portuguese Africa. In 1948 two massive power dams were planned in Angola; the Lauca and Cambambe dams on the Kwanza River. In 1949 Portugal’s most complex and largest Hydro Electric dam was planned on the Zambezi River; the Cahora Bassa Dam.

In the Iberian Peninsula after the war “Companhia Ferroviária Ibérica” (CFI) continued to expand Portuguese railway. Linking many new cities to the rail network for the first time. In the South railway finally traversed the whole province of Algarve while the second Alentejo line was completed. In the center, the building of the Vila Franca de Xira railway bridge allowed closer linking to Lisbon. To the south of Lisbon, the expanding cites on the south bank of the Tejo (Tagus River) were also connected to the rail network. In the north were topography was the major obstacle the expanded railways allowed for new industry to expand into Beira and Minho regions.

IikcJ6n.png

Metropolitan Portugal Rail network in 1949

In 1947 the all-electric Lisbon-Porto high speed train line was inaugurated and the “Foguete” train service was inaugurated. While travel time would pale to future high-speed trains. The “Foguete” train using all Portuguese built engine and rail stock was able to traverse distance in less than 4 hours travelling at top speed of 100 km/h. At the time, it became one of Europe’s fastest railways.

VQ8b73G.png

Portuguese Foguete High Speed Train 1947

By 1949, Portuguese Africa’s network of all-weather roads and railway network had doubled from 1945 level.[1] [2] Meanwhile in Metropolitan Portugal new “auto-estradas” based on the German “Autobahn” was started with the Lisbon-Porto “auto-estrada” being built between 1947 and 1949, meanwhile rail service between the major cities was also increased after the war with the increase availability of locomotives and rail stock.

Portuguese ports were expanded throughout the country to provide it with increased cargo capabilities as the merchant fleet expanded and the availability of ships increased.

In 1947, the Portuguese government became partners with British Overseas Airways Corporation (BOAC) in the development of airplane capable of carrying 48 passengers. The Portuguese government invested 10 million pounds in the project with British aerospace company Bristol. Several Portuguese engineers also went to work at Bristol plant and in 1948 the first prototype was completed. BOAC and Portugal each ordered 25 planes. That same year a 74-passenger model was also developed, and Portuguese initiated a firm order of 100 for the 74-pasenger version and increased its order for the 48-passenger version to 100 in 1949 providing a huge boost to Bristol. As Portuguese demand became more important for Bristol the number of Portuguese engineers and technicians working for it increased.

Finance and Commerce
Following the war agricultural and mineral production continued to increase but with continued high European demand prices remaining high. Wages though continued to see increases luckily for Portugal with the war over many companies were able to invest in new machinery thus increasing productivity and limiting the inflationary pressures.

The continued operating government surpluses and high trade surpluses provided the government with ability to pay off its entire external debt by 1949. While the Portuguese government continued to borrow money each year to finance public infrastructure projects in 1949 its level of debt was less than 30% of GDP and it borrowed exclusive from within the country.

The Portuguese also saw an increase in their buying power from 1940 to 1949. The conversion rate from escudo to the U.S. dollar had been set at 25$ in 1940, in 1949 it was set at 18$75. Portugal also continued witness an increase in its gold reserves.[3] [4]

The increased economic interaction between the overseas provinces and Metropolitan Portugal was complicated and expensive. Portugal used the Portuguese escudo while each overseas province had its own currency for a total of nine official currencies circulating in the country. In Portugal, the Bank of Portugal oversaw the issuing and controlling the escudo, while Banco Ultramar issued colonial currencies in the overseas provinces.[5] This caused major difficulties and increased costs of doing business as the economies of the overseas provinces grew exponentially. Business and citizens demanded a simpler and more transparent system. Starting in 1948 to end of 1949 each of overseas provinces’ local colonial banknotes and coins were exchanged at banks for escudos. On 1 January 1950, the only official currency in all of Portugal from Europe to Asia was the Portuguese escudo.[6]

In 1946 both Banco Ultramar and Caixa Geral de Depositos were bought by the government. Finance Minister Magalhães Mai had realized that the best way to reform the banking system was to work from the inside. Over the next decade, both government owned banks would spur a huge growth in branches as both banks expanded, and the private banks followed suit. More importantly the two banks began offering better interest rates on deposits and providing more business and personal loans as well as more mortgages.[7]

In 1948, the 1948 Portuguese Bank Act was passed, it limited the percent of stock each person, family or company could hold in each bank at 15%. It also limited individuals, families and companies from owning more than 25% of the outstanding shares in multiple banks and more importantly prevented individuals from sitting on more than one bank board. It also provided banking regulation regarding operations of banks. Lastly it allowed for the creation of several new banks.[8]

In 1948 the increased economic activity in Africa especially in Portuguese West Africa led to demand for an additional stock exchange in the country. In 1948 the “Bolsa de Valores de Luanda” (Luanda Stock Exchange) was formed meanwhile the two older Portuguese stock exchanges, Lisbon Stock Exchange and Oporto Stock Exchange, continued to grow and by 1949 the number of companies shares on the stock exchanges had doubled and volume on the exchanges had increased by 350% from 1939 levels. In 1942 the Lisbon and Porto stock exchanges were linked so that companies could be listed on the both exchanges at same time and trades in both exchanges were reflected in each city.

Following the war Portuguese government provided incentives to increase the production of construction materials this coincided with the huge population boom as hundreds of thousands of immigrants arrived each year from Europe. From 1946 to 1949 the number of homes and commercial development being built increased over 20% a year. [9]

GDP
In 1940, the Portuguese GDP reached 29,310 over the next 10 years it increased over 119%. The Portuguese economy continued to witness rapid economic growth as industrialization in Metropolitan Portugal reached new levels. Urban population had reached 60% of Metropolitan Portugal and the countryside was depopulated to feed the growing industrial complex. Portuguese cities and metro areas doubled or tripled in size. The biggest limiting factors became population and available land spurring Portuguese industrialization to the overseas provinces. During the 1940s the Portuguese economy grew as follows:

Lavncvz.png

[1] In Angola, the Moçâmedes Railway reached Serpa Pinto in 1948, in the north the Lunda railway was expanded north to Carmona and further inland to reach the new mines and plantations in Henrique de Carvalho by 1949. Meanwhile the Portuguese built several branch lines connected to the Benguela Railway which was the only foreign owned railway in Angola. In 1948, Portuguese investment bank PIB bought the controlling interest in the railway’s owner Tanganyika Concessions Limited and moved the company’s headquarters to Lisbon. In 1949, the Angola Rail company which was 50% owned by the government began building a railway connecting Namibe to Luanda along the coast.

[2] In 1946, the construction began on the Mozambique Coastal Railway linking Lourenco Marques to Quelimane.

[3] On 1 January 1939, the total Portuguese gold reserves amounted to 115.4 tons; over the course of the war it reached 856.5 tons as of 31 October 1945, in 1949 they were at 592.6. iOTL Portugal’s 1939 gold reserves were 63.4 tons; as of 31 October 1945, they had increased to 356.5 tons and reduced to 171 tons as of 31 December 1949.

[4] From 1945 to 1949 Portugal used some of its huge gold reserves to pay for industrial machinery.

[5] iOTL in 1926 Ultramar bank note issuing powers in Ultramar province of Angola was transferred to Bank of Angola. iTTL the Bank of Angola was never founded as a bank note bank and was only founded in 1941 as a regional business bank.

[6] Ultramar foreign branches dedicated to money transferring were transferred to Bank of Portugal while those dealing with assisting foreigners and foreign companies doing business in Portugal and Ultramar provinces expanded. By 1949 Banco Ultramar was the Portuguese bank with the largest foreign branch providing a clearance house for foreign transactions as well as facilitating in granting credit to foreign individuals and companies wishing to do business in Portugal.

[7] In Minister’s Magalhães Mai’s opinion the Portuguese banks were overcautious and not providing enough personal and business loans to the Portuguese economy. It was estimated that less than 40% of all business loans were approved and only 45% of personal and mortgages were approved. As government owned banks lending practices changed the private banks followed suit. A Bank of Portugal study in 1949 found that the lending practices of private and government owned banks were identical showing that the private banks had adapted and changed the way they did business. Both the public and private banks expanded their branch network and many towns got their first bank branches. Lending practices also changed as all banks expanded the amount of money they lent.

[8] From 1948, onward Portuguese banks went through a rapid change, merger and expansion mode as they adapted to the government bank’s increased lending and higher deposits deposit rates as well as the new competition.

[9] In Metropolitan cities and towns where land was more limited and expensive the majority of the building was apartments and condominiums. While in Africa and majority of the Ultramar single family homes were the norm. Whole new towns and cities sprung up around the major urban centers.

[10] The GDP growth for decade was 120%, iOTL Portugal’s GDP in 1949 was 17,129 and the GDP growth for decade was 38%.

We finalize the economic section and like to point out few items, 1) Portuguese Metropolitan railway is both based on iOTL and increased in both size and scope due to a much greater industrialization and development. As we see Portuguese Metropolitan GDP was almost 4 times larger compared to iotl and therefore required much more efficient and larger network. The fogete high speed rail was brought forward over a decade and while iotl was seen as behind its time iTTL it is relevant and important in respect to increasing transportation between metropolitan Portugal largest cities and for the fact it was designed and built by Portuguese domestic. While its speed and efficiency in the 1940s is 100km/h may seem not very fast in todays world but was a game changer in the 1940s. 2) The Portuguese investment in both motorways, roads, ports and rail would be a great benefit to the country as transportation infrastructure stopping being a hinderance in Portugal's growth but also a contributing factor. 3) Consolidation of various Portuguese currencies into a single national currency was a huge boost economically and more importantly it
signified one country for in replacing Macau Pataca or Angolan Angolar to Portuguese Escudo and all the other currencies made investing and trade streamlined. 4) the value of Portuguese escudo and its appreciation reflected the growth of the country and the relative strength of the Portuguese economy. This is in contrast to the depreciation of the British Stirling in the post war period. Several British companies with sizable subsidiaries established in Portugal in the 1930s were rescued by their subsidiaries liquidity. During the war when transferring of monies to Britain was not possible these subsidiaries had both invested in their business and like all companies in Portugal saved part of their profits in Portugal. Following the war some of the more progressive companies continued their growth in Portugal while some of the more troubled companies siphoned as much cash back to Britain as possible. 5) Lastly the GDP figures like iOTL are for Metropolitan Portugal and does not include the overseas provinces.

Questions / Comments?

In two weeks on October 27 we will return with two sections Health & Education and Security.
 
Last edited:
With that economic size, am I right to assume that Portugal has reached a gdp per capita comparable to the wealthy european countries like France, Belgium, Netherlands....?
 
I would think Portugal Empire somehow avoiding the napoleonic wars is your best bet. They keep Brazil and focus most of the 1900th century on domestic issues while in foreign they stay mostly neutral but very cordial with Britain. Maybe get Zambia and land to connect its African colonies together.
 
Amazing growth for Portugal. Who currently owns/occupies Dutch New Guinea? Also which countries are the majority of European immigration to Portugal coming from and did it have any impact on the Eastern Block, esp. with a better Wehrmacht performance slowing the Red tide?

I would think Portugal Empire somehow avoiding the napoleonic wars is your best bet. They keep Brazil and focus most of the 1900th century on domestic issues while in foreign they stay mostly neutral but very cordial with Britain. Maybe get Zambia and land to connect its African colonies together.

A wrong forum case?
 

Lusitania

Donor
With that economic size, am I right to assume that Portugal has reached a gdp per capita comparable to the wealthy european countries like France, Belgium, Netherlands....?

The economic size that Portugal published was very good in comparison to where the country had been before but still not at same level as the "big boys" or more advanced countries. Of course if we place USA then everyone a tiny minnow. Now while the Portuguese stats look great the Portuguese made them seem smaller and more insignificant by starting in mid 1940s only publish them for Federation (all territory even though Federation not exist till 1950. While the GDP was larger the GDP per Capita was much smaller. Either way by late 1940s and especially in 1950s when everyone head was out of sand the Portuguese economy became more important and not one that people especially in Europe were willing to ignore.

Country / GDP / Population / GDP per Capita
Portugal / 64,479 / 11,213 / 5,750
Federation / 96,824 / 33,277 / 2,909
Britain / 389,572 / 50,127 / 7,772
France / 220,492 / 41,829 / 5,271
Netherlands / 60,442 / 10,114 / 5,996
 
Last edited:
Yessssss my favourite timeline is back... really looking forward to more. One question from an expat south African will we see any cooperation with apartheid South Africa post war?. Historically they go-operated closely with Israel but I could see a lean into a Portuguese third option... providing they weren’t too covetous of Angola
 
The economic size that Portugal published was very good in comparison to where the country had been before but still not at same level as the "big boys" or more advanced countries. Of course if we place USA then everyone a tiny minnow. Now while the Portuguese stats look great the Portuguese made them seem smaller and more insignificant by starting in mid 1940s only publish them for Federation (all territory even though Federation not exist till 1950. While the GDP was larger the GDP per Capita was much smaller. Either way by late 1940s and especially in 1950s when everyone head was out of sand the Portuguese economy became more important and not one that people especially in Europe were willing to ignore.

Country / GDP / Population / GDP per Capita
Portugal / 64,479 / 11,213 / 5,750
Federation / 96,824 / 33,277 / 2,909
Britain / 389,572 / 50,127 / 7,772
France / 220,492 / 41,829 / 5,271
Netherlands / 60,442 / 10,114 / 5,996

Man, that’s insane, you managed to turn Portugal into a developped first world country by 1950, it really changes everything.

Tho I wonder if the colonial wars won’t happen earlier, if the colonial population is better educated and is politicised earlier (if if’s Earlier then it’ll likely be less communist in nature especially with the weaker USSR) Or maybe the Portuguese government/army can outmanoeuvre the independance movement and keep such a war go a NI Trouble/80s New Caledonian scale
 

Lusitania

Donor
Amazing growth for Portugal. Who currently owns/occupies Dutch New Guinea? Also which countries are the majority of European immigration to Portugal coming from and did it have any impact on the Eastern Block, esp. with a better Wehrmacht performance slowing the Red tide?

Dutch New Guinea remained free of independent movement during the Dutch East indies war of independence. It remained part of Netherlands till the mid 1970s.

immigration to Portugal will be covered extensively in Security post in 2 weeks. What can state is that till end of war Portugal had witnessed two major immigration waves. The immigration wave of 1930s had seen Portugal go out and recruit immigrants with the skill sets it needed. Integrating them into the country had been very straight forward with them being absorbed into jobs as soon as they arrived in Portugal. The second wave has started with Spanish civil war refugees and continued throughout war with tens of thousands of refugees entering country escaping Nazi. In the case of refugees the Portuguese had received a lot of new immigrants but found that integrating them was more work. Some had settled successfully into the country while others had simply used the country as stop over only.

therefore at end of war the Portuguese government set about a comprehensive program to attract immigrants it needed and wanted. That not mean it closed its doors to other immigrants including non Europeans.

another factor affecting emigration and refugees was iron curtain crises which exasperated situation in Europe and if we compare refugee issues by end of 40s we find the same amount of people were affect as iotl.
 

Lusitania

Donor
Yessssss my favourite timeline is back... really looking forward to more. One question from an expat south African will we see any cooperation with apartheid South Africa post war?. Historically they go-operated closely with Israel but I could see a lean into a Portuguese third option... providing they weren’t too covetous of Angola
Hm... South Africa.

It is interesting that researching their political system it seemed that they would the most antagonist towards a Portuguese federation that provided their African and non-european population with citizenship, education and all other freedoms provided to Europeans.

Following the war SA did enact many policies that would limit the dilution of Afrikaner control of government. This plus Apartheid would indicate that they feel most threatened by the Portuguese federation more than African independence.

In the TL another factor in a more antagonist relationship was the fact that Portuguese Africa industrialization had a negative impact on South African industry. While SA industry benefited from Portuguese development in the 30s and immediately following the war but by 1948 as Portugal enacted duties and protection for their industries they started feeling economically threatened. SA also were no longer the top dog on the continent.

lastly was militarily, during war the Portuguese had been angry and upset at SA plans to invade Portuguese Africa and had made great strides to beef up its military in both provinces as a deterrent. The huge military purchase from British after the war put the Portuguese on an even footing with South Africa which frightened SA.

The simple fact that SA felt Britain was favoring Portugal over it made SA government angry and relations between SA and Portugal suffered as result of the diplomatic spat.

Lastly wanted to contrast SA and progressive Portugal vs SA and iotl Portugal. First SA is the same in terms of government and social attitudes. The attitude and actions of iTTL Portugal are very different than iotl Portugal. Not only in terms of development but in social and political thinking. Correcting injustices done by Europeans against Africans in the 1930s. Providing jobs and education to Africans, giving them same rights as Europeans have huge social implications. With new attitudes and thinking slowly being enforced snd promoted by government and even institutions. This was in contrast to the continued colonial attitudes still existing in SA. Remember that while Portuguese democracy is flawed and human rights limited they were the same for all races. A huge recruitment for PSP, GNR and GDS of non Europeans meant that while they had not reached the management level non Europeans were present in great numbers along front lines so they had a direct sAy how laws are enforced. In our foreign Affairs section we will discuss the fact that with all their flaws Portuguese blacks had more opportunity, freedom including ability to vote than blacks in SA and even USA.

so what does this mean for future SA and Portuguese relationship in the 1950s and 1960s we have to see but they are starting from different locations and going in different directions.
 
Last edited:
Hm... South Africa.

It is interesting that researching their political system it seemed that they would the most antagonist towards a Portuguese federation that provided their African and non-european population with citizenship, education and all other freedoms provided to Europeans.

Following the war SA did enact many policies that would limit the dilution of Afrikaner control of government. This plus Apartheid would indicate that they feel most threatened by the Portuguese federation more than African independence.

On the TL another factor in a more antagonist relationship was the fact that Portuguese Africa industrialization had a negative impact on South African industry. While SA industry benefited from Portuguese development in the 30s and immediately following the war but by 1948 as Portugal enacted duties and protection for their industries they started feeling economically threatened. SA also were no longer the top fog on the continent.

lastly was militarily, during war the Portuguese had been angry and upset at SA plans to invade Portuguese Africa and had made great strides to beef up its military in both provinces as a deterrent. The huge military purchase from British after the war put the Portuguese on an even footing with South Africa which frightened SA.

The simple fact that SA felt Britain was favoring Portugal over it made SA government angry and relations between SA and Portugal suffered as result of the diplomatic spat.

Lastly wanted to contrast SA and progressive Portugal vs SA and iotl Portugal. First SA is the same in terms of government and social attitudes. The attitude and actions of iTTL Portugal are very different than iotl Portugal. Not only in terms of development but in social and political thinking. Correcting injustices done by Europeans against Africans in the 1930s. Providing jobs and education to Africans, giving them same rights as Europeans have huge social implications. With new attitudes and thinking slowly being enforced snd promoted by government and even institutions. This was in contrast to the continued colonial attitudes still existing in SA. Remember that while Portuguese democracy is flawed and human rights limited they were the same for all races. A huge recruitment for PSP, GNR and GDS of non Europeans meant that while they had not reached the management level non Europeans were present in great numbers along front lines so they had a direct sAy how laws are enforced. In our foreign Affairs section we will discuss the fact that with all their flaws Portuguese blacks had more opportunity, freedom including ability to vote than blacks in SA and even USA.

so what does this mean for future SA and Portuguese relationship in the 1950s and 1960s we have to see but they are starting from different locations and going in different directions.
How about Rhodesia? Portugal has a partial strangle hold on them via their control over the mouth of the Zambezi, and Portugal's guided democracy may an appealing alternative to minority rule for those wanting to preserve the prosperity of the Rhodesian whites (especially since Rhodesia had a much smaller white percentage of it population than South Africa, making South African style apartheid impractical).
 

Lusitania

Donor
Man, that’s insane, you managed to turn Portugal into a developped first world country by 1950, it really changes everything.

Tho I wonder if the colonial wars won’t happen earlier, if the colonial population is better educated and is politicised earlier (if if’s Earlier then it’ll likely be less communist in nature especially with the weaker USSR) Or maybe the Portuguese government/army can outmanoeuvre the independance movement and keep such a war go a NI Trouble/80s New Caledonian scale


Só a few things you touched on.

economic development - yes after 30 years of developing and industrialization the country is catching up to some of the larger players. It was accomplished though over a long period of time and I think if Salazar had not wasted 1930-1955 Portugal with his vision of 19th century Portugal it would today been at least double it’s gdp. Even Portuguese speaking African countries would of been so much further ahead. In this TL the investment in education and infrastructure means that already by 1950 the country had achieved momentous task. From the economic prospective it has developed a car industry, companies making domestic appliances, electronic companies, steel industry, rail industry and lots of other industries. It’s mining in both Portugal and overseas provinces was at 1970 level plus the country had two sources of oil and gas (AlgArve and Angola). While it all may seem impressive there was still a huge amount to do. There was over 1 million immigrants living in portugal with the number of Europeans in Portuguese Africa at over 1 million by 1950. This is a game changer for it was starting to challenge the British European population in Africa.

I think it important to think of Portuguese development (1920-1950) like communist China development from 1980-2010 in 30 years it grew immensely too. Like PRC development the Portuguese development had “help” that provided push and investment needed. Britain in the 1920s, then Germany from 1930-1938. Britain from 1937-1939. During the war you had Portuguese obtain technology and resources from both Britain and Axis. Then after war we had war repetitions from Germany/ Austria. We had large scale development by British companies. So it made sense that by 1950 metropolitan Portugal had achieved the same level of GDP as say Netherlands.

The interesting thing is that if we look at Portuguese federation as a whole it increased the GDP by about 25-30% while tripling the population of the country. (If you think that amount of GDP increase is low so did a few economist but that’s was the statistics Portuguese government provided.) We will see the growth during the 1950s which were very significant. (Some people think the growth in the 1950s was a bit high as the government incorporated some of the unaccounted overseas gdp into the total).

Colonial wars - will there be colonial wars as we understand them per iotl? To answer that question we need to witness the country’s struggle and endeavor to convince people they really were part of a grand country and are better off in the federation than on their own. The people attitude in the 1960s and 1970s will be shaped by the people’s attitude and integration exercise during the crucial 1st decade of the federation. Can the country absorb and integrate the millions of blacks so that they too become to think themselves as Portuguese?

As for Decolonization in the rest of Africa, it will not start earlier as a result of the Portuguese federation. How it will play out be interesting, and while it may not start any sooner events will soon snowball and the the continent will erupt in flames. For something as tumultuous as the federation is bound to have major implication. History provided the Portuguese with many different opportunities to increase their influence and truly make Africa a Portuguese dominated area of the world.
 
Last edited:

Lusitania

Donor
How about Rhodesia? Portugal has a partial strangle hold on them via their control over the mouth of the Zambezi, and Portugal's guided democracy may an appealing alternative to minority rule for those wanting to preserve the prosperity of the Rhodesian whites (especially since Rhodesia had a much smaller white percentage of it population than South Africa, making South African style apartheid impractical).

You are right the Rhodesia would be a good candidate to mimic Portuguese federation. In fact in the 1950s it did follow a path similar to the Federation. The combined British colony of Zambia, Malawi and Rhodesia provided limited voting franchise to educated blacks. Unfortunately the % of whites was very small in comparison to blacks and there was a segment of Rhodesia Whites who feared black rule and wanted to implement system similar to SA. The whole thing collapsed in the late 1950s and by 1960 all three separate colonies were on path to independence with whites implanting apartheid system in Rhodesia.

As for economic stranglehold the Portuguese left the Cape Town gage railroads coming from interior alone as the trains came from interior straight to Portuguese ports. Both the rails and ports were segregated from Portuguese railways (using Portuguese gage) and Portuguese ports (both internal and export).
 
How is the economy of Europe (non-communist) going to be boosted by the Portuguese market? Britain seems to be the biggest winner but is anyone else scoring?
 
Top