ABLE ARCHER 83: Timeline of a Third World War in 1983
- Thread starter giobastia
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I know nothing about anything having to do with any of this (Reagan was president? Do say!), and so have nothing to add more constructive than that it is very well done.
The War on the Seas (all the naval operations, November 9th-14th)
At sea, NATO naval forces dominate everywhere since the first two days of war. After the sinking of the first three boomers, in the first day of war, NATO navies change all their codes, preventing the Soviet intelligence to know their position.
In the East Mediterranean Sea, the mighty Lebanon naval expedition force (US carriers America, Independence and Kennedy, French carrier Foche, the battleship USS New Jersey and their escorts) launches a massive air and missile strike against the Soviet Black Sea Fleet, disrupting the Soviet amphibious operations in Istanbul. Eventually they give close air support to the Turkish First and Second Armies against the Bulgarian land offensive. By the fourth day of war, the Soviet Black Sea Fleet ceases to be a menace for NATO and both the land and naval attacks on the Turkish Straits are successfully stopped. Then, USS America and USS New Jersey are commanded to rush to the Atlantic theatre of operation, to support operations in the North Atlantic and Norway.
In the Baltic belts, also, the entire UK Home Fleet, supported by the USS Nimitz task force successfully attacks and nearly annihilates the Soviet Baltic Fleet, preventing it to cross the Kattegat after the fall of Denmark.
In North Atlantic, the four Northern Fleet’s Soviet Delta III class submarines (armed with SS-N-8 ballistic missiles), sneak under the ice cap of the Arctic, getting closer to US and Canadian coasts. Only one of them is intercepted and sunk by a US Belknap class destoyer; meanwhile, the most modern US attack submarines (Los Angeles and Sturgeon classes) cross the Greenland-Iceland-UK (GIUK) gap and penetrates the Northern Soviet “Bastion”. Two Charlies, one Oscar class submarine and two Yankee class submarines are sunk by the US boats. Exploiting the confusion created by the US attack submarines, the USS Florida (Ohio class submarine) and six US Franklin class submarines (all of them armed with Trident C-4 ballistic missiles), sneak into the GIUK, getting closer to Soviet waters. Due to the penetration of US submarine forces in their home waters, Soviet attack submarines have to concentrate in defensive missions and only few of them could be effectively employed in the Atlantic against the sea lanes. Thus, with few losses, heavy equipment of the US Third Corps, along with 400 neutron warheads (both artillery shells and Lance warheads) are quickly sent to Belgian and Netherland harbors.
In the Indian Ocean theatre of operations, the Soviet submarines based in Yemen and in Vietnam successfully disrupt Allied and neutral merchant traffic both in the Arabian Sea and off Singapore. The giant oil tankers suffers many losses in the Persian Gulf and in the Java Sea, where the Soviet attack submarines operate almost undisturbed.
In the Pacific theatre of operations, even after the sinking of the USS Kitty Hawk, the US Seventh Fleet successfully intercept and disrupt the Soviet amphibious assault on Hokkaido, in Japan. When the US Third Fleet comes to the rescue, both the Third and Seventh Fleets inflict decisive losses to the Soviet Pacific Fleet in the Sea of Okhotsk. Eventually the Third Fleet launches deep air strikes against Vladivostok, the Soviet Far East and the Kamchatka Peninsula. Exploiting the confusion created by the air attacks of the Third Fleet, the USS Michigan and five Franklin class submarines (all of them armed with Trident C-4 ballistic missiles) sneak in the Sea of Okhotsk, passing silently through the massive Soviet defenses. Meanwhile, from the Soviet side, the ten Pacific Fleet’s Delta III class submarine (all of them armed with SS-N-8 ballistic missiles), try to get closer to US West Coast. Four of them are sunk by Viking ASW aircrafts attached to the US Third Fleet, but the other six can reach their launch positions off the Alaskan coasts.
In US naval bases, large amounts of nuclear gravity bombs, torpedoes and missiles (including the new nuclear Tomahawk and TLAM-N missiles) are loaded on tenders and “lost” in dispersed locations, both in the Atlantic and in the Pacific Oceans, where they could be delivered to the US units at sea.
At sea, NATO naval forces dominate everywhere since the first two days of war. After the sinking of the first three boomers, in the first day of war, NATO navies change all their codes, preventing the Soviet intelligence to know their position.
In the East Mediterranean Sea, the mighty Lebanon naval expedition force (US carriers America, Independence and Kennedy, French carrier Foche, the battleship USS New Jersey and their escorts) launches a massive air and missile strike against the Soviet Black Sea Fleet, disrupting the Soviet amphibious operations in Istanbul. Eventually they give close air support to the Turkish First and Second Armies against the Bulgarian land offensive. By the fourth day of war, the Soviet Black Sea Fleet ceases to be a menace for NATO and both the land and naval attacks on the Turkish Straits are successfully stopped. Then, USS America and USS New Jersey are commanded to rush to the Atlantic theatre of operation, to support operations in the North Atlantic and Norway.
In the Baltic belts, also, the entire UK Home Fleet, supported by the USS Nimitz task force successfully attacks and nearly annihilates the Soviet Baltic Fleet, preventing it to cross the Kattegat after the fall of Denmark.
In North Atlantic, the four Northern Fleet’s Soviet Delta III class submarines (armed with SS-N-8 ballistic missiles), sneak under the ice cap of the Arctic, getting closer to US and Canadian coasts. Only one of them is intercepted and sunk by a US Belknap class destoyer; meanwhile, the most modern US attack submarines (Los Angeles and Sturgeon classes) cross the Greenland-Iceland-UK (GIUK) gap and penetrates the Northern Soviet “Bastion”. Two Charlies, one Oscar class submarine and two Yankee class submarines are sunk by the US boats. Exploiting the confusion created by the US attack submarines, the USS Florida (Ohio class submarine) and six US Franklin class submarines (all of them armed with Trident C-4 ballistic missiles), sneak into the GIUK, getting closer to Soviet waters. Due to the penetration of US submarine forces in their home waters, Soviet attack submarines have to concentrate in defensive missions and only few of them could be effectively employed in the Atlantic against the sea lanes. Thus, with few losses, heavy equipment of the US Third Corps, along with 400 neutron warheads (both artillery shells and Lance warheads) are quickly sent to Belgian and Netherland harbors.
In the Indian Ocean theatre of operations, the Soviet submarines based in Yemen and in Vietnam successfully disrupt Allied and neutral merchant traffic both in the Arabian Sea and off Singapore. The giant oil tankers suffers many losses in the Persian Gulf and in the Java Sea, where the Soviet attack submarines operate almost undisturbed.
In the Pacific theatre of operations, even after the sinking of the USS Kitty Hawk, the US Seventh Fleet successfully intercept and disrupt the Soviet amphibious assault on Hokkaido, in Japan. When the US Third Fleet comes to the rescue, both the Third and Seventh Fleets inflict decisive losses to the Soviet Pacific Fleet in the Sea of Okhotsk. Eventually the Third Fleet launches deep air strikes against Vladivostok, the Soviet Far East and the Kamchatka Peninsula. Exploiting the confusion created by the air attacks of the Third Fleet, the USS Michigan and five Franklin class submarines (all of them armed with Trident C-4 ballistic missiles) sneak in the Sea of Okhotsk, passing silently through the massive Soviet defenses. Meanwhile, from the Soviet side, the ten Pacific Fleet’s Delta III class submarine (all of them armed with SS-N-8 ballistic missiles), try to get closer to US West Coast. Four of them are sunk by Viking ASW aircrafts attached to the US Third Fleet, but the other six can reach their launch positions off the Alaskan coasts.
In US naval bases, large amounts of nuclear gravity bombs, torpedoes and missiles (including the new nuclear Tomahawk and TLAM-N missiles) are loaded on tenders and “lost” in dispersed locations, both in the Atlantic and in the Pacific Oceans, where they could be delivered to the US units at sea.
I have a few concerns here, but I've long wanted to see an Able Archer war scenario done here for long enough that...
I'm subscribed.
I'm subscribed.
Otis R. Needleman
Banned
I'm in. Was a lieutenant on active duty at that time, awaiting the birth of my first child.
The World in Conflict (all the peripheral campaigns, November 9th-14th)
The conflagration in Europe between the two superpowers produce, as its first collateral effect, the loss of any inhibition and restrain applied to force in any other latent or ongoing local conflict, all over the World. All those local conflicts begin immediately to merge in the wider war.
The first to explode is Central America, the backyard of Usa. Since the first day of war, US Intruders and then B-52 bomb the Soviet naval base of Cienfuegos, in Cuba and all the airports and airstrips in the Caribbean communist island. A naval blockade is established in Cuba. Meanwhile, in Nicaragua, pro-Soviet Sandinista troops launch a massive attack against the anti-communist guerrilla force of Eden Pastora (the “Comandante Zero”) inside the territory of neutral Costa Rica. The offensive widens and become immediately a full-fledge Nicaraguan invasion of the unarmed neighbor. US supports Costa Rica with massive air raids against all military related targets inside Nicaragua. On November 11th, the US 82nd Airborne Division (which is still partly deployed in Grenada) and heli-borne elements of the 1st Marine Division, are airdropped close to Managua, the Nicaraguan capital. In the following four days, the Sandinista army suffers critical losses, taken by surprise and overwhelmed by the US firepower, invaded by North by the FDN guerrilla force and fighting in the South against the Eden Pastora troops. On November 14th, FDN establishes a provisional government in Managua, ending the conventional phase of the war in Nicaragua (although a really protracted guerrilla war is just begun).
The war in Central America has immediate repercussions in South Africa. The Cuban troops deployed in Angola, along with the Angolan Mpla (pro-Soviet) forces, invades Namibia on November 10th, hoping for a massive mobilization of all black African states against the white South Africa and a massive Soviet support. But the Cuban-Angolan offensive is crushed by South African forces, while its rears are disrupted by the UNITA guerrilla units. No Soviet submarine is able to reach South African coasts.
The Middle East, also, explode immediately after the war in Europe. Syria and Israel have already mobilized their forces and begin to fight each others on November 10th. That day, the Syrian First Corps launch a diversionary assault on the Golan Heights, which is repulsed with heavy losses by the Israeli 36th Division. But the main Syrian thrust is in Lebanon, where the Second and Third Syrian Corps divisions try to encircle the main forces of the Israeli Northern Corps. In the North of Lebanon, the Syrians take the OLP controlled Tripoli. Arafat is killed in action by Syrian commandos, along with almost all the members of the OLP. In the South, the Syrian Second Corps and elements of the Third, assaults Beirut clashing with the UN multinational peacekeeping forces and Lebanese regular units. The Beirut garrison, supported by the fire of the USS New Jersey and other US, French and Italian surface vessels, successfully keep the Syrian forces out of West Beirut. On November 11th, the Israeli 162nd Division (dispatched from Israeli Central Corps) invades Lebanon and clashes with the Syrian Second Corps. After a short and violent clash of armored forces, the Israeli Division manage to advance to Beirut and break the siege. By November 14th, all Lebanon is under Israeli control. The USS New Jersey and the USS America could head to the Atlantic, given that their supporting mission in Lebanon is finished. Once Israel has mobilized all its reserves, it invades Syria from Southern Lebanon and the Golan Heights.
In East Turkey, the Soviets keep a defensive posture, because of a mix of difficult terrain, bad season and the lack of first line units in Georgia, Armenia and Azerbaijan. Although, there are daily exchanges by the artillery batteries of the two sides and many Soviet air strikes against Turkish bases. A Kurdish pro-Soviet rebellion, managed by the PKK (Kurdish Workers Party) is savagely suppressed by Turkish Gendarmerie, despite the air support given to the rebels by the Soviets.
In the Gulf, the ongoing Iraq-Iran War slowly escalates day after day. Until the first day of war in Europe, Saddam Hussein asks for Soviet support. Moscow deny direct support, but deploy more air units in Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan and Afghanistan, both for defensive purposes (they fear an attack from Iran) and to support their Iraqi allies. On November 12th, the Soviets conduct a first air strike on Caucasus border, apparently to answer to an Iranian artillery attack. On November 13th, Iranian Pasdaran units infiltrates in Soviet territory, in Turkmenistan and successfully blow up an oil deposits and a Soviet KGB frontier post. Soviets react immediately with deep air strikes against Iranian political and military targets. On November 14th, Soviet Spetnatz units occupy the airport and main command centers of Teheran. Advanced elements of the Soviet Fifth Guard Army land on Iranian Caspian coast, supported by the Soviet Caspian Flotilla (armed with the “Caspian Monsters” Ekranoplans).
China mobilizes all its forces but remains neutral. The nuclear CSS-3 Chinese IRBMs are put on high alert and readied for launch against Soviet targets. On the Soviet side, the Far East Military District and the Central Asia Military District begin the full mobilization of their reserves. The Soviet SS-20 batteries in Mongolia and near Vladivostok are dispersed.
In the Korean Peninsula, the North Korean People’s Army begins its full mobilization immediately after the beginning of hostilities in the Pacific. The sinking of the US carrier Kitty Hawk in the Tsushima Straits, boosts the morale of Pyongyang regime. Also South Korea begin full mobilization of its forces. Units of US 3rd Marine division and of US 25th Infantry division begin to arrive in South Korea, along with reinforcements for the US 2nd Division stationed near Seoul. On November 13th, the fourth day of mobilization, the North Korean People’s Army begin its attack with vast operations of its special forces, across the DMZ border (through underground tunnels) and along the South Korean West Coast (with mini-submarines and small airplanes). Them, the First, Second and Fourth North Korean Corps attack directly Seoul, supported by a heavy artillery barrage directly aimed at the city. Meanwhile, the North Korean Third Corps begin its offensive along the East coast. The attack on the South Korean capital results in a bloody stalemate North of the large city, but the South Korean Third Army and the US 2nd Division don’t lose ground. Along the Korean East coast, the offensive of the North Korean Third Corps is easily stopped by the South Korean First Army. Soviet Far East air forces intervenes in the struggle, supporting North Korean ground operations, but many MIG-23 and almost all the SU-24 bombers are shot down by the more modern US F-16s and Navy F-14s. The US naval aviation and the USAF establishes a full control of the air since the first day of war in this new front of war.
The conflagration in Europe between the two superpowers produce, as its first collateral effect, the loss of any inhibition and restrain applied to force in any other latent or ongoing local conflict, all over the World. All those local conflicts begin immediately to merge in the wider war.
The first to explode is Central America, the backyard of Usa. Since the first day of war, US Intruders and then B-52 bomb the Soviet naval base of Cienfuegos, in Cuba and all the airports and airstrips in the Caribbean communist island. A naval blockade is established in Cuba. Meanwhile, in Nicaragua, pro-Soviet Sandinista troops launch a massive attack against the anti-communist guerrilla force of Eden Pastora (the “Comandante Zero”) inside the territory of neutral Costa Rica. The offensive widens and become immediately a full-fledge Nicaraguan invasion of the unarmed neighbor. US supports Costa Rica with massive air raids against all military related targets inside Nicaragua. On November 11th, the US 82nd Airborne Division (which is still partly deployed in Grenada) and heli-borne elements of the 1st Marine Division, are airdropped close to Managua, the Nicaraguan capital. In the following four days, the Sandinista army suffers critical losses, taken by surprise and overwhelmed by the US firepower, invaded by North by the FDN guerrilla force and fighting in the South against the Eden Pastora troops. On November 14th, FDN establishes a provisional government in Managua, ending the conventional phase of the war in Nicaragua (although a really protracted guerrilla war is just begun).
The war in Central America has immediate repercussions in South Africa. The Cuban troops deployed in Angola, along with the Angolan Mpla (pro-Soviet) forces, invades Namibia on November 10th, hoping for a massive mobilization of all black African states against the white South Africa and a massive Soviet support. But the Cuban-Angolan offensive is crushed by South African forces, while its rears are disrupted by the UNITA guerrilla units. No Soviet submarine is able to reach South African coasts.
The Middle East, also, explode immediately after the war in Europe. Syria and Israel have already mobilized their forces and begin to fight each others on November 10th. That day, the Syrian First Corps launch a diversionary assault on the Golan Heights, which is repulsed with heavy losses by the Israeli 36th Division. But the main Syrian thrust is in Lebanon, where the Second and Third Syrian Corps divisions try to encircle the main forces of the Israeli Northern Corps. In the North of Lebanon, the Syrians take the OLP controlled Tripoli. Arafat is killed in action by Syrian commandos, along with almost all the members of the OLP. In the South, the Syrian Second Corps and elements of the Third, assaults Beirut clashing with the UN multinational peacekeeping forces and Lebanese regular units. The Beirut garrison, supported by the fire of the USS New Jersey and other US, French and Italian surface vessels, successfully keep the Syrian forces out of West Beirut. On November 11th, the Israeli 162nd Division (dispatched from Israeli Central Corps) invades Lebanon and clashes with the Syrian Second Corps. After a short and violent clash of armored forces, the Israeli Division manage to advance to Beirut and break the siege. By November 14th, all Lebanon is under Israeli control. The USS New Jersey and the USS America could head to the Atlantic, given that their supporting mission in Lebanon is finished. Once Israel has mobilized all its reserves, it invades Syria from Southern Lebanon and the Golan Heights.
In East Turkey, the Soviets keep a defensive posture, because of a mix of difficult terrain, bad season and the lack of first line units in Georgia, Armenia and Azerbaijan. Although, there are daily exchanges by the artillery batteries of the two sides and many Soviet air strikes against Turkish bases. A Kurdish pro-Soviet rebellion, managed by the PKK (Kurdish Workers Party) is savagely suppressed by Turkish Gendarmerie, despite the air support given to the rebels by the Soviets.
In the Gulf, the ongoing Iraq-Iran War slowly escalates day after day. Until the first day of war in Europe, Saddam Hussein asks for Soviet support. Moscow deny direct support, but deploy more air units in Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan and Afghanistan, both for defensive purposes (they fear an attack from Iran) and to support their Iraqi allies. On November 12th, the Soviets conduct a first air strike on Caucasus border, apparently to answer to an Iranian artillery attack. On November 13th, Iranian Pasdaran units infiltrates in Soviet territory, in Turkmenistan and successfully blow up an oil deposits and a Soviet KGB frontier post. Soviets react immediately with deep air strikes against Iranian political and military targets. On November 14th, Soviet Spetnatz units occupy the airport and main command centers of Teheran. Advanced elements of the Soviet Fifth Guard Army land on Iranian Caspian coast, supported by the Soviet Caspian Flotilla (armed with the “Caspian Monsters” Ekranoplans).
China mobilizes all its forces but remains neutral. The nuclear CSS-3 Chinese IRBMs are put on high alert and readied for launch against Soviet targets. On the Soviet side, the Far East Military District and the Central Asia Military District begin the full mobilization of their reserves. The Soviet SS-20 batteries in Mongolia and near Vladivostok are dispersed.
In the Korean Peninsula, the North Korean People’s Army begins its full mobilization immediately after the beginning of hostilities in the Pacific. The sinking of the US carrier Kitty Hawk in the Tsushima Straits, boosts the morale of Pyongyang regime. Also South Korea begin full mobilization of its forces. Units of US 3rd Marine division and of US 25th Infantry division begin to arrive in South Korea, along with reinforcements for the US 2nd Division stationed near Seoul. On November 13th, the fourth day of mobilization, the North Korean People’s Army begin its attack with vast operations of its special forces, across the DMZ border (through underground tunnels) and along the South Korean West Coast (with mini-submarines and small airplanes). Them, the First, Second and Fourth North Korean Corps attack directly Seoul, supported by a heavy artillery barrage directly aimed at the city. Meanwhile, the North Korean Third Corps begin its offensive along the East coast. The attack on the South Korean capital results in a bloody stalemate North of the large city, but the South Korean Third Army and the US 2nd Division don’t lose ground. Along the Korean East coast, the offensive of the North Korean Third Corps is easily stopped by the South Korean First Army. Soviet Far East air forces intervenes in the struggle, supporting North Korean ground operations, but many MIG-23 and almost all the SU-24 bombers are shot down by the more modern US F-16s and Navy F-14s. The US naval aviation and the USAF establishes a full control of the air since the first day of war in this new front of war.
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Call me subscribed. This TL is one of the few that gave me chills, mostly because it's a reminder of my childhood being spent in places that were never more than an hour from being destroyed in nuclear fire, should it have come to that.
OTL must be the one unlikely timeline that didn't blunder (foolishly, stupidly or even innocently) into nuclear war after 1945. Here we see how a chain of unforeseen mistakes leads to a Soviet Barbarossa ([sarcasm]I bet that that piece of Western commentary will go down real well with the Soviet leadership...[/sarcasm]) and most likely a demonstration of MAD.
OTL must be the one unlikely timeline that didn't blunder (foolishly, stupidly or even innocently) into nuclear war after 1945. Here we see how a chain of unforeseen mistakes leads to a Soviet Barbarossa ([sarcasm]I bet that that piece of Western commentary will go down real well with the Soviet leadership...[/sarcasm]) and most likely a demonstration of MAD.
Orville_third
Banned
Let's hope the two sides see some sense and stop the war before it goes full bore nuclear.
Otis R. Needleman
Banned
Not likely. I had recently returned from Korea and was an instructor. At that time there were very few officer instructors.
An observation, based on two tours in Korea. I don't believe the North Koreans could make it to Seoul, much less besiege it, even in late 1983. We'd had thirty years to prepare for them, and armor heading for Seoul has to travel through specific well-defended "canals". Also, US A-10 aircraft would have had a field day shooting up NK armor. The NK Air Force would have had a short, but exciting life, as their MiG-15/17/19/21s, SU-7s, and IL-28s litter the Korean landscape with aluminum.
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You got a full hour in the old days we only got 30 minutes!
IIRC ICBM flight time is somewhere between 30- 45 min. Add in about 10-15 min for the launch orders to go through once a warning is received and we'd have roughly an hour if the Yanks went first. Otherwise it's 30-45 min minus the time required for the warning to arrive.
And where we lived at the time (CFB Cold Lake, AB), assuming that the target was the control tower built into 1 Hangar, the one-story bungalow we called home would be instantly set alight, dosed with >500 rem of hard radiation and then scoured from the face of the earth by the blast wave. We were about a mile or so from the part of the base most likely to be targeted.
Anaxagoras
Banned
I've often wondered if the Soviets would attempt to attack the Alaska pipeline with Spetnaz units. It would also be something of a propaganda victory to have Soviet troops deployed on American soil.
Some good stuff in here. A few points:
1. On November 11th, the US 82nd Airborne Division (which is still partly deployed in Grenada) and heli-borne elements of the 1st Marine Division, are airdropped close to Managua, the Nicaraguan capital. I'm not sure how plausible this is. At this point, every man and gun is needed in Europe, and the 82nd and 1st Marine were, after all, among the U.S.'s most mobile and deployable. They weren't tasked for the first wave of deployment in Reforger as of '83; but they would probably follow sooner after.
That's a lot of desperately needed frontline combat strength sent to a very secondary theater. I could see it, perhaps, if the Canal was threatened; but the Sandinistas didn't have the logistical tail to get that far. It seems more likely to me that U.S. involvement for the time being would be limited to tactical air strikes and Special Forces.
To be sure, however, I did get a visceral thrill reading of Ortega getting his tail kicked.
2. I'm glad that you included the F-117's - the first ones had reached operational status in October of 1983. And they'd sure as hell be used - and a rude shock to the Soviets.
3. The Soviet invasion of Austria is a surprise. Not that the Soviets didn't have plans for that; but it's a big blow to them, diplomatically, overrunning a neutral country they have guaranteed by treaty. It seems less likely to me as an opening gambit, especially for what Andropov hopes will be a limited war.
4. Otis says: An observation, based on two tours in Korea. I don't believe the North Koreans could make it to Seoul, much less besiege it, even in late 1983. That is my sense as well: Without major Soviet or Chinese support, a North Korean penetration to Seoul is going to be tough to pull off.
5. Ekranoplans! You get bonus points just for that.
[note: Alas, the "Caspian Sea Monster" (or KM) actually ceased operations in 1980 after an accident. You will need an earlier P.O.D. to get that one into action here.]
1. On November 11th, the US 82nd Airborne Division (which is still partly deployed in Grenada) and heli-borne elements of the 1st Marine Division, are airdropped close to Managua, the Nicaraguan capital. I'm not sure how plausible this is. At this point, every man and gun is needed in Europe, and the 82nd and 1st Marine were, after all, among the U.S.'s most mobile and deployable. They weren't tasked for the first wave of deployment in Reforger as of '83; but they would probably follow sooner after.
That's a lot of desperately needed frontline combat strength sent to a very secondary theater. I could see it, perhaps, if the Canal was threatened; but the Sandinistas didn't have the logistical tail to get that far. It seems more likely to me that U.S. involvement for the time being would be limited to tactical air strikes and Special Forces.
To be sure, however, I did get a visceral thrill reading of Ortega getting his tail kicked.
2. I'm glad that you included the F-117's - the first ones had reached operational status in October of 1983. And they'd sure as hell be used - and a rude shock to the Soviets.
3. The Soviet invasion of Austria is a surprise. Not that the Soviets didn't have plans for that; but it's a big blow to them, diplomatically, overrunning a neutral country they have guaranteed by treaty. It seems less likely to me as an opening gambit, especially for what Andropov hopes will be a limited war.
4. Otis says: An observation, based on two tours in Korea. I don't believe the North Koreans could make it to Seoul, much less besiege it, even in late 1983. That is my sense as well: Without major Soviet or Chinese support, a North Korean penetration to Seoul is going to be tough to pull off.
5. Ekranoplans! You get bonus points just for that.
[note: Alas, the "Caspian Sea Monster" (or KM) actually ceased operations in 1980 after an accident. You will need an earlier P.O.D. to get that one into action here.]
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Two points from my side on this excellent TL:
1. Soviet submarine performance: I would have expected the Soviet SSN-fleet to have been already in the Atlantic, during the buildup to the war. Thus the North Atlantic should have been a far more dangerous area for NATO.
2. NATO SAM-performance: W. Germany featured a very extensive network of SAM sites. You can see all the sites on google earth, positioned along the inner german border for Hawk and Nike missiles. The problem with all those SAMs is that the Soviets will pound these sites preceding their attacks with artillery and ballistic missiles (probably chemical tipped too). I thus expect the efficacy of these SAM sites, whose positions were well known to the Soviets, to be substantially reduced before the first Soviets jets cross the inner german border.
1. Soviet submarine performance: I would have expected the Soviet SSN-fleet to have been already in the Atlantic, during the buildup to the war. Thus the North Atlantic should have been a far more dangerous area for NATO.
2. NATO SAM-performance: W. Germany featured a very extensive network of SAM sites. You can see all the sites on google earth, positioned along the inner german border for Hawk and Nike missiles. The problem with all those SAMs is that the Soviets will pound these sites preceding their attacks with artillery and ballistic missiles (probably chemical tipped too). I thus expect the efficacy of these SAM sites, whose positions were well known to the Soviets, to be substantially reduced before the first Soviets jets cross the inner german border.
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