AHC: Austria and Russia switch sides

[Alcsentre Calanice]

How can you get Germany to abandon Austria-Hungary in the late 1890's (realizing how weak the Empire is) and to ally with Russia?

An alliance between Germany, Austria-Hungary and Russia can't hold long, since Austria and Russia are opponents on the Balkans - but Russia and Germany have no divergent interests.

How would an WWI in which Austria, France and Britain fight against Russia, Germany and Italy look like?

 

[Mackus]

Austria-Hungary dies pretty much instantly, gone in six months tops.
Germany Grabs Bohemia and Austria, possibly also part of Slovenia. Italy grabs Illyria and Trent, Russia gets Galich, Slovakia and Hungary, later as puppet state.
Austrians knew this, and were desperate to remain allied to Germany.

 

[von kressenstein]

Austria-Hungary dies pretty much instantly, gone in six months tops.
Germany Grabs Bohemia and Austria, possibly also part of Slovenia. Italy grabs Illyria and Trent, Russia gets Galich, Slovakia and Hungary, later as puppet state.
Austrians knew this, and were desperate to remain allied to Germany.

Europe doesn't want a bigger Russia those lands are not russian lands or Russian people and I doubt even they want to be ruled by Moscow ..

I could see Austria Hungary just divorcing .. And then maybe parts absorbed to Germany .. But Hungary would retain large portions of what was left .. No one wanted Russia any larger or further west

 

[Matteo]

How can you get Germany to abandon Austria-Hungary in the late 1890's (realizing how weak the Empire is) and to ally with Russia?

An alliance between Germany, Austria-Hungary and Russia can't hold long, since Austria and Russia are opponents on the Balkans - but Russia and Germany have no divergent interests.

How would an WWI in which Austria, France and Britain fight against Russia, Germany and Italy look like?

Sorry but this just does not make sense, to my opinion.

The 2 stronger powers do not ally, especially when they are neighbours. They are at best rivals, at worst enemies.

 

[LordKalvert]

Germany would be very hard pressed to abandon Austria as the destruction of Austria would leave Germany exposed to France and Russia

This doesn't mean its impossible- the Germans could realize that the potential enemies of Austria (Russia, Italy, Serbia and Romania) are far more powerful than Austria and therefore clinging to Austria is not worth it.

Several possibilities then emerge- Austria's internal problems grow with ethnic uprisings in Bohemia and Transylvania for example This would make Austria less than useful to Germany and the Germans might become interested in salvaging what they can.

They won't like it but they might agree to taking the Germanic regions in exchange for the Russians getting Galicia, the Italians taking Trieste, Bosnia to Serbia. This leaves the Hungarian/Romanian dispute over Transylvania. The Germans would probably go with Romania out of sympathy for the Hohenzollern King Carol

As for a war between a coalition of France, Austria and Britain against Russia, Germany and Italy-

The Germans stand on the defensive along the French border, the Russians and the Italians mobilize against Austria- the Serbs and Romanians will mobilize on their own as well. Everyone starts to move to occupy those parts of the Hapsburg lands they are to get

The Austrian mobilization orders are simply ignored as no one intends to die in this hopeless cause and Franz Joseph accepts his new role as a minor German prince like the Wettins and the Wittlesbachs

The French then sue for peace- the Russians would have no quarrel with the French and would rather enjoy having this new protectorate and force Germany to agree to status quo ante

 

[Daniwani]

Europe doesn't want a bigger Russia those lands are not russian lands or Russian people and I doubt even they want to be ruled by Moscow ..

I could see Austria Hungary just divorcing .. And then maybe parts absorbed to Germany .. But Hungary would retain large portions of what was left .. No one wanted Russia any larger or further west

Not sure how those lands "not being Russian" has anything to do with what happens with Russian Imperialism, never mind pre-Soviet Hapsburg Ukrainians, Russia at the time contained Warsaw, Central Asia, the South Caucasus and Finland. Nitpicky perhaps, but it would be from Petrograd, not Moscow

Hungary would probably retain Solvakia, not sure really what Russia's plans would be for Solvakia, or who's influence Hungary would fall under, but Austria is going to Germany near immediately. Might see, with WWI going differently, more Austrian opposition to joining up with he rest of Germany then you did irl pre-WWII, what with being forcefully annexed and all.

None of Russia's enemies would have much a choice.

Anyone have any idea what Russia would do with Galicia? would it reunite Krakow and Warsaw or not risk it?


All that said, I'm not sure how you'd be able to set this sort of scenario up

 

[LordKalvert]

N
Anyone have any idea what Russia would do with Galicia? would it reunite Krakow and Warsaw or not risk it?

No way the Russians a Greater Poland to emerge.

 

[von kressenstein]

Not sure how those lands "not being Russian" has anything to do with what happens with Russian Imperialism, never mind pre-Soviet Hapsburg Ukrainians, Russia at the time contained Warsaw, Central Asia, the South Caucasus and Finland. Nitpicky perhaps, but it would be from Petrograd, not Moscow

Hungary would probably retain Solvakia, not sure really what Russia's plans would be for Solvakia, or who's influence Hungary would fall under, but Austria is going to Germany near immediately. Might see, with WWI going differently, more Austrian opposition to joining up with he rest of Germany then you did irl pre-WWII, what with being forcefully annexed and all.

None of Russia's enemies would have much a choice.

Anyone have any idea what Russia would do with Galicia? would it reunite Krakow and Warsaw or not risk it?


All that said, I'm not sure how you'd be able to set this sort of scenario up

Petrograd/Moscow. Two capitols ...
Still while they might not have a choice .. Doesn't mean they are going to sit and let them continue to encroach west .. Especially England ..

No way the Russians a Greater Poland to emerge.

Exactly .. And they even made concessions in our timeline to try to keep polish nationalism in check

 

[walmart]

Austria would rush and do almost anything to rejoin the alliance.they know they can't held a war with Russia and Germany

 

[LordKalvert]

Austria would rush and do almost anything to rejoin the alliance.they know they can't held a war with Russia and Germany

But what do they have to offer?

Is there a coalition on Earth that could possibly fight a Russo-German alliance? They certainly would have all Europe at their feet

 

[walmart]

But what do they have to offer?

Is there a coalition on Earth that could possibly fight a Russo-German alliance? They certainly would have all Europe at their feet

They have the Balkans to offer to the Russians and they don't need to offer germany anything .

Britian+france+usa+japan+Austria+turkey+italy

 

[LordKalvert]

They have the Balkans to offer to the Russians and they don't need to offer germany anything .

Britian+france+usa+japan+Austria+turkey+italy

But if the Russians have the Germans behind them, they can take the Balkans themselves without Austria

An interesting alliance- doubt if you could make it work but assuming you did-

We can use WWI as the likely outcome-

The Germans don't leave the 8th Army in Prussia but use it to add to their right and clobber the Anglo-French forces while the Russians occupy Austria. If the Germans need any help, the Russians will have plenty of troops freed up even as they do a Balkan drive to Constantinople

Think the Italians will quickly come to their senses and just surrender but I can't see any realistic resistance. With the combined fleets of the defeated continental powers, the destruction of Britain and Japan is rather easy

The Americans can have what they want in the Western Hemisphere but they aren't landing in Europe and driving to Moscow

 

[vital.peacekeeper]

why not?
if they do not do something stupid and attack Belgium, Britain could stay neutral. it would be bloodbath in France (maybe white peace), but I do think Russia would go after Galicia and Turkish Black sea coast.
Italy could turn either way. perhaps France forces Austrians to give minimun to Italy (Trentino, part of Kustenland).
so, basicaly, we have Russia&Germany vs. France&Austro-Hungary&Turkey (&perhaps Italy).
so, with this team up, Serbia is with Russia. assuming this, Russia would do anything to get Bulgaria in its own camp (perhaps even pissing off Greece, who can be neutral or join France&co.).
Germany would do well if it were to stir up problem in Hungary, promising them free state (perhaps even keeping them Slovakia). Romania might be neutral or foolish enough to go with France, but then its fate is sealed and it would be divided after war between Hungary, Bulgaria, Serbia and Russia.
in Hungary, influence will be German, while both Serbia and Bulgaria would be dominated by Russia.
it is also question which side does Japan choose.
after the war, France would be severe weakened, with Italy gaining some of its territory (by switching side in the last second), some territory would go to Benelux countries and Switzerland,...
if WW2 happens, it will be quite interesting.

 

[Alcsentre Calanice]

But if the Russians have the Germans behind them, they can take the Balkans themselves without Austria

An interesting alliance- doubt if you could make it work but assuming you did-

Weren't there several attempts of Russia (last in 1905?) to conclude an alliance with Germany?

The Germans have just to grasp that Russia is much more valuable than Austria.

 

[LordKalvert]

Weren't there several attempts of Russia (last in 1905?) to conclude an alliance with Germany?

The Germans have just to grasp that Russia is much more valuable than Austria.

In 1905, it was the Russians who backed out- big mistake as Nicky and Willie could have then made peace at the expense of Britain. With their border secured, and France compliant because well, what do you do when your France and the Germans and the Russians send you a note, there's nothing Britain can do-

The two resume building their fleets (the Dreadnought will make everything obsolete so its starts from scratch) and the Russians build railroads towards India

I shouldn't say nothing, but I can't think of anything Britain can do that will work

 

[Marko]

An alliance between Russia and Germany will galvanise A-H. Also if that would be the case much more focus would be given to defence. And the borders of A-H (minus Galicia) were very defensible.

In such a world I can see an almost permanent alliance between Italy, Germany and Russia on one side and Unite Kingdom, France, A-H and the Ottoman Empire on the other.

 

[Karelian]

There were very good reasons for the way the alliance system turned out how it did in OTL.

So once again: Germany cannot offer Russia the things the Anglo-French Entente could.

1. Peace and set spheres of interest in central Asia after a century of Great Game and a humiliating defeat against Japan - that was also an ally of Britain, so a deal with Britain indirectly helped Russia to secure her Far-Eastern flank as well.

2. French credit. Financial sector of Paris was the only economical power with the willingness to finance Russian industrialization with massive investments to Russian railroad construction and other projects - Germany couldn't afford such ventures with her pre-war taxation system and financial situation.

3. Russian leaders predicted that an alliance with France would bring their major colonial rival, Britain, to the table sooner or later. Which it did, and gave the Russians the freedom to re-focus their foreign policy to the Ottoman Empire and the Balkans.

 

[Alcsentre Calanice]

snip

But as history turned out, Russia gained nothing from being allied with the Entente. The Balkans and the Ottoman Empire were reorganized after WWI, but without any Russians gains. And Russia can anticipate it.

Even if they can't foresee the Bolshevik revolution and Brest-Litovsk, they can think of German strength an realize that will never be able to win an offensive war against Austria and Germany (in 1914).

So, in the end, the Central Powers have more to offer than the Entente.

 

[Karelian]

But as history turned out, Russia gained nothing from being allied with the Entente. The Balkans and the Ottoman Empire were reorganized after WWI, but without any Russians gains. And Russia can anticipate it.

No, they couldn't anticipate the way things turned out in OTL, and neither could any other pre-WW1 leader. The pre-war Russian leaders were anticipating very different course of events in the region before the 1st Balkan War.

Even if they can't foresee the Bolshevik revolution and Brest-Litovsk, they can think of German strength an realize that will never be able to win an offensive war against Austria and Germany (in 1914).

Why should they think so? They have an army that is numerically much larger and with recent war experience, supported by strongest military coalition in the planet, encircling the potential foe from two sides. With that kind of odds you don't envision a total collapse and defeat.

So, in the end, the Central Powers have more to offer than the Entente.

No, they don't. They can't neither bring about a deal with Britain at Central Asia, fund Russian industrialization or give her a free hand at the Turkish Straits.

 

[Archdevil]

The Russians only had to look back 50 years to see how France and Britain really felt about Russia moving in on the Ottoman Empire. It was Britain, not Germany, who was concerned about Russian control over the Dardanelles. Due to the Suez Canal, this would be actually even more the case in 1914 than in 1851.

Also, Russia's ambitions on the Balkan were not of great concern to Germany, who only became interested there because of their OTL alliance with A-H. A Bismarck like figure should actually encourage them here, as it would be a great way to piss away money and manpower. The only thing that might concern the Germans would be the German decended populations scattered over the Balkans, but since there were also German enclaves in the Baltics and along the Wolga already under Russian control without major issues, I don't see that leading to flashpoints.

If France could fund Russian industry, there's no reason a richer Germany could not do the same. A more developed Russia would also function as an large (and nearby) market for German industrial products.

On the longer term this German-Russian axis probably only works if both sides realize a change in the mutual borders is unneeded. So no lebensraum-equivalent ideoligy in Germany (the Nazi's didn't really come up with it in the first place) and Russia shoud realize that the part of Poland they hold now is already trouble enough and wanting more is a real bad idea. Furthermore they'll need a common enemy for their alliance and after having taken care of Austria in a WWI equivalent I don't see which combination of countries remains.