AHC: Austria-Hungary side-steps WWI

[Comte de Geneve]

I just don't see the great Turking Carving Session as an analogue to OTL WWI.

 

[GuildedAgeNostalgia]

I see the obvious pathways for the Balkan states, Russia, Britain, Italy, and France to all carve slices or deploy support for the Ottos here. -- But what's the German angle? And how are they much more invested or better at it than the Austrians?

Berlin-Bagdhad railroad and a strong Bulgaria to counteract Russian influence in the Balkans?

 

[Fehérvári]

Hmm, so German strategy is expeditionary warfare on the scene of Morocco and Africa itself, plus a narrow frontal push on the French border alone, and it will be compelled to do defensive operations against Russia.

Something along those lines, yes. The German plan could be quickly defeating the French Navy, attaining a favourable situation in Africa, repulsing initial French and Russian attacks in Europe, then making peace with favourable conditions to them (maybe through British mediation). The Germans would essentially try to replicate what the Japanese did in the Russo-Japanese War. Wether their plan would succeed or not is another question.

British neutrality and French naval defeats could encourage the Italians to join the war, which would greatly increase the chances of German success, but it could also risk further escalation. The French might be willing to give up on their ambitions in Morocco if the Germans give them a bloody nose, but losing Morocco AND Tunisia at the same time might be a too hard pill to swallow.

A dragging war would greatly benefit the British. Not only would their chief rivals drag each other down (securing Britain's spot at the top in the process), they would also have the opportunity to trade with and supply both sides (the Germans could hardly be able to block Franco-British trade, even if they dominate the seas in the conflict). A-H could also make a bank supplying Germany (and Italy), but it could also exploit the gaps in the world market (created by the war) and expand its industries.

The Russians would hardly be willing to fight for French interests to the bitter end, they would act as a counterweight to French stubbornness. They would force the French to make peace if a reasonable proposal (in accordance with the facts on the ground) would come forward. Alternatively, Posen could be made a declared Russian war aim, however that would certainly lead to Austro-Hungarian involvement, which go against the wish of the OP.

Further escalation without A-H being involved could come in two forms:
1 - The Ottoman Empire joins the war against Russia to reclaim lands in the Caucasus (read: to distract the population from internal problems)
2 - Germany introduces USW and manages to piss off the British so much they join the war.

 

[Aphrodite]

Berlin-Bagdhad railroad and a strong Bulgaria to counteract Russian influence in the Balkans?

Germany cared little for the Balkans and always deferred to Austria. They would also broker deals between Austria and Italy. Germany would fight in the Balkans inly if Austria stepped up.

An Austro-Russian partition is possible if FF has replaced FJ.

Bjorko could lead to a Russo German attack on Britain but neither Italy or France would help Britain. Both would likely join. the Germans and Russians. Austria would certainly have no need to join such a war.

I see no situation where Austria could suffer a Russian occupation of Berlin

 

[Bones101]

https://ww1.habsburger.net/en/chapters/franz-ferdinand-and-his-political-programme

Does anyone know where I can find the 1911 Programme for the Succession Franz Ferdinand published, mentioned in this article?

The article implies he had a series of moves set up to "deal with the Hungarians" before he swore an oath to uphold the Crown of St Stephen.

It seems to imply that it was creating the Croatian Crown but no specifics.

Also, I translated the 1850 Kremsier Consitution of Austria into English if anyone wants a copy, for some reason. (What kind of weirdo would read a Consitution from 1850 that was never implemented? I mean, me, of course, but who else?)

@Comte de Geneve if you have a scenario for the end of the decade or the 1920s, I'd love to hear it.

I would love to read your translation of the Kremsier constitution if you still have it, please share!

 

[Halagaz]

Aside from the Aegean crisis, there's one more flashpoint in the post-1912 period which Austria-Hungary could have sat out in theory (in theory - in reality, I have some doubts that Vienna would resist joining the fray). That is the dispute over the establishment of an international inspectorate in Armenia.

Let's say the Armenian Crisis of 1912-1914 escalates into a diplomatic breakdown. Let's say the talks over the establishment of international inspectorates get more heated, the Russians and/or the Ottomans overreach themselves with an attempt to establish some kind of fait accompli, and everything goes to shit.

Or maybe the inspectorates are established, as in OTL, but tensions rack up again in 1915 or 1916. Maybe a Russian official doing the rounds in the Armenian inspectorate is murdered by Ottoman irregulars, leading Russia to issue demands that would infringe on the sovereignty of the Ottoman Empire as a whole, and the Ottomans are encouraged by Germany to refuse.

This can escalate into a war between the Ottomans and Germans on one side, and Russia, France and maybe Britain on the other, with Greece looking to join the Entente side and Bulgaria and Italy hovering around as wild cards. Austria-Hungary, as well as its neighbors Romania and Serbia, start off as neutrals and watch the unfolding chaos with a mix of fear and ambition.

One thing that could help A-H stay neutral is if the escalation takes place as late as possible - let's say 1916. The renegotiations of the Ausgleich - the settlement between the Austrian and Hungarian ruling halves of the Empire - are due in 1917, and the closer you get to that the closer A-H gets to an internal crisis or deadlock which could help keep it neutral.