AHC: Industrial Byzantium in the 6th century

[Flavius Iulius Maiorianus]

First off, this is my first post here, so please let me know if I do something wrong. Your challenge is to get the Byzantine Empire during the 6th century to undergo an industrial revolution. Rules for the PoD:

1. It must be after the 5th century BC, and preferably during the Common Era
2. If there is a PoD that far back, then something resembling OTL's Byzantium must be in existence by the 6th century AD
3. Preferably, the Plague of Justinian shouldn't be removed unless you can find a plausible way for that to happen. Same with the volcanic eruptions of the 530s. However, if these are required for your scenario to work then you can use these.
4. Your industrial revolution doesn't need to involve steam power. There are other options, such as the Stirling Engine

For some backround on the economic stuff, the Roman Empire during the Principate was largely a market economy comparable to that of early modern Europe. Such findings are consistent with those in Peter Temin's book The Roman Market Economy. During the 4th century, the Empire became much more of a command economy. However, even then, production on a proto-industrial scale continued, and independent actors continued to exist in the economy. From what I understand, 6th century Byzantium was somewhere in between these two. Byzantine banking seems to be largely comparable to that of the Principate, at least during the 6th century.
Regarding steam power, if one insists on it, the Romans could, at least theoretically, have built a steam engine. It would have been primitive even compared to the lower end ones of the early modern era, but they had knowledge of the crankshaft, gears, cylinders, and valves, all of which were widely used throughout the Empire. They knew that steam could move things and exert pressure, as seen with Anthemius of Tralles, who built a steam powered earthquake machine in the 6th century.

So, any thoughts? Again, if I messed something up, please let me know. This is literally my first post here.

 

[Flavius Iulius Maiorianus]

This is a better fit for the Alien Space Bats board.

Not according to this thread.

 

[Concerned Brazilian]

Not according to this thread.
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Thanks for clarifying.

 

[Thistle and Rose]

I have a feeling for Byzantine to go through a industrial revolution or similar shift , they would need to go through a second agricultural revolution . Of which the cast iron mould-board ploughing would be a huge aid , as you would not need to reserve huge amounts of land for animal pasture . Long and sustained trade with china , could potentially acheive this, or through fluke invention.

 

[Flavius Iulius Maiorianus]

I have a feeling for Byzantine to go through a industrial revolution or similar shift , they would need to go through a second agricultural revolution . Of which the cast iron mould-board ploughing would be a huge aid , as you would not need to reserve huge amounts of land for animal pasture . Long and sustained trade with china , could potentially acheive this, or through fluke invention.

Yeah, that makes sense. Roman agricultural techniques were ridiculously efficient (see the paper I linked in the OP). Maybe Carthage pulls a Vinland just before being destroyed and brings potatoes back to the Old World? Or maybe a Byzantine merchant brings rice back from India?

 

[Thistle and Rose]

Yeah, that makes sense. Roman agricultural techniques were ridiculously efficient (see the paper I linked in the OP). Maybe Carthage pulls a Vinland just before being destroyed and brings potatoes back to the Old World? Or maybe a Byzantine merchant brings rice back from India?

Trade with india arguably could give much more then just rice . all sorts of pulses, sugar cane, spices (native to india i think), but i think all this might do in the long run is make egypt even more important (which could a curse in disguise considering the decreasing fertility and potential for foreign incursion ), and enable the empire to support a richer mercantile class (for they are now the producers, and the distributers to europe)

 

[Flavius Iulius Maiorianus]

Trade with india arguably could give much more then just rice . all sorts of pulses, sugar cane, spices (native to india i think), but i think all this might do in the long run is make egypt even more important (which could a curse in disguise considering the decreasing fertility and potential for foreign incursion ), and enable the empire to support a richer mercantile class (for they are now the producers, and the distributers to europe)

The Romans actually did trade with India fairly extensively. They did bring back spices. In fact that was one of the reasons for Trajan's conquest of Mesopotamia and Augustus's invasion of Arabia, to get better access to India. If some merchants brought back rice it could increase the food security in the Empire, and sugar cane would be lucrative too.
Egypt IIRC only started becoming less fertile because of goat herding by the Arabs when they conquered it. The same happened to North Africa.

 

[Analytical Engine]

Egypt IIRC only started becoming less fertile because of goat herding by the Arabs when they conquered it. The same happened to North Africa.

Few things beat goats for ecological damage, sadly.

 

[Popcorn]

Widespread use of the printing press in the first couple centuries AD could possibly get an industrial revolution going by that timeframe.

 

[Flavius Iulius Maiorianus]

Widespread use of the printing press in the first couple centuries AD could possibly get an industrial revolution going by that timeframe.

Yeah, that makes sense. Song China and early modern Europe both had a printing press. The problem is inventing it. There was nobody in Rome who came even close to inventing one.

 

[Popcorn]

Yeah, that makes sense. Song China and early modern Europe both had a printing press. The problem is inventing it. There was nobody in Rome who came even close to inventing one.

Virtually anyone would be capable of it, all it takes is one brief moment of inspiration. Noticing wagon tracks in the dirt, imprints on a table under a cup, footprints in the snow.

 

[Flavius Iulius Maiorianus]

Virtually anyone would be capable of it, all it takes is one brief moment of inspiration. Noticing wagon tracks in the dirt, imprints on a table under a cup, footprints in the snow.

But the Romans didn't have paper, and papyrus is pretty bad for printing IIRC. I'm not saying it's impossible, I just don't see why someone would invent it ITTL when they didn't OTL.

 

[Popcorn]

But the Romans didn't have paper, and papyrus is pretty bad for printing IIRC. I'm not saying it's impossible, I just don't see why someone would invent it ITTL when they didn't OTL.

Necessity is the mother of invention. As soon as there is a need for paper someone will start figuring out how to make it.

 

[Flavius Iulius Maiorianus]

Necessity is the mother of invention. As soon as there is a need for paper someone will start figuring out how to make it.

Or they could get it from more extensive contact with Han China. Maybe they could also get rice, which, combined with the highly advanced Roman agricultural techniques and Chinese agricultural tech, would give them a big boost in that department.

 

[Fulano]

I think they need to adapt the Arabic Numbers System first. People usually overlook it, but it is a real pain in the ass to even do basic maths with Roman Numerals.

 

[NedStark]

I think they need to adapt the Arabic Numbers System first. People usually overlook it, but it is a real pain in the ass to even do basic maths with Roman Numerals.

Unfortunately the Arabs were still a bunch of desert nomads at that time.

 

[Avrorrange]

How will industrial warfare look like potentially without gunpowder weapons?

 

[Flavius Iulius Maiorianus]

I think they need to adapt the Arabic Numbers System first. People usually overlook it, but it is a real pain in the ass to even do basic maths with Roman Numerals.

This is true, but the Romans actually didn't really use their numeral system for actual math. Rather, they used an abacus:

Roman abacus - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

So adopting the Arabic numeral system would help, but it's not like they were using Roman numerals for actual math.

Unfortunately the Arabs were still a bunch of desert nomads at that time.

Arabic numerals actually came from India.

How will industrial warfare look like potentially without gunpowder weapons?

Well, metallurgy will improve, so you'll have better weapons and armor. The Byzantines would also have the ability to field far larger armies and actually supply them as well.

 

[Stellar_Lights]

Industrial Revolutions need a breaks and disruptions in the status quo, for extended periods of time. A society where the people are "happy with everything", at least fairly happy, will not see an Industrial Revolution. The Renaissance was a result of Europe loosing out fertile lands and Mediterranean routes to the Turks, Black Death decimating the labour based agrarian economy and a few more factors, that are related. Renaissance led to the Industrial Revolution. This is one reason why we don't see the societies that "came closely" to industrializing, but never did, like Ancient Greece/Rome, Mesopotamia/Assyria/Persia, Iraq, Syria, Al Andalus (Spain) and Egypt in the Medieval era, Ancient India and China, and several more are some examples. It's also a function of a certain kind of Geography, Climate and People, in a certain period.

These disruptions need not be wholly negative. A positive change like an Agricultural revolution boosting the population of a particular region to levels beyond the Carrying Capacity, can indirectly lead to one.

Let's do a checklist of the Byzantines in the 6th Century:

Strife: Religious strife through the roof. Limited to no ethnic strife.

Natural Calamity/Force Majeure: Roman Warm period ending, invaders from the East/North pouring in due to that, Plague ongoing.

Geography: The best. Egyptian Plains, Western Mesopotamia/Syria, Levant, Anatolia, Thrace and North Africa controlled. Trade routes and food supply not an issue, even at the 50% workforce after the plague. See that the Western European lands are very less productive, compared to this part of the World.

Need to compete: Low. Sassanid Empire was the only formidable enemy. Arabs haven't yet risen but are undergoing their population explosion (which will cause them to rise in an another 150 years). Rest of Europe is still tribal and feudal, controlling lands that are far less productive.

The way I see it, an Agricultural Revolution that could produce more calories per person per area, is the only way for this to happen. Rabbit farming? Aquaculture and Algaculture? What else? Also see that the food habits need to change, and the preference for bread needs to wane, which needs an another set of incentives. The result when significant populations are emancipated from serfdom and peasantry leads to more Trade, Building, Natural Philosophy and Exploration guilds, which will lead to what we know as "Renaissance", "Age of Exploration" and eventually, the Industrial Revolution. European Industrial Revolution was almost a given, when the Renaissance resulted in the Great Divergence.

Kicking start that Renaissance, in the Byzantine controlled Mediterranean, by achieving those pre-requisites to emancipate the populations and move them into the said guilds, is the biggest challenge, which needs several societal and civilizational changes (first off, people may not move away from bread and pork/beef/lamb sausages, to cultured fish, algae and rabbits, very easily. And even with 50% workforce, the fertile lands still assures a good supply of these).

Every Society in the World, even today, is always on the cusp of a revolution that can take them to Infinity, in the actual sense, from the Neon Lights of the advanced cities of Japan to the Silicon Valley to a random city in the Middle East, Africa or South Asia. But the few societal norms and egos that prevent that one bit from happening, always block out the progress, or slows it down. Revolutions happened when those had to be broken down due to necessity. That is the hardest part.

 

[Stellar_Lights]

I think they need to adapt the Arabic Numbers System first. People usually overlook it, but it is a real pain in the ass to even do basic maths with Roman Numerals.

Okay. But the Arab Renaissance didn't happen in a vacuum. It built on the previous works done by the other civilizations like India, Greece-Egypt and Persia. Projecting their power through trade and conquest, amassing the new found wealth, an exploding population along with Philosophy guilds, helped them do that. It is difficult, and the Byzantines could, in a situation that could be difficult to achieve, perform the same, to discover what in that World would be called, Indo-Greek numerals .