AHC/PC: Independent Hungary c.1867 - under Maximilian

[Tocomocho]

This just popped into my head.

After 1867 Austria and Hungary were basically two different states with the same army and head of state.

That same year, AH's favorite among Franz Josef's siblings, Maximilian, who was only 2 years younger than him, was captured and executed by Mexican rebels. Of course, suppose that doesn't happen, because Maximilian never goes to Mexico in the ATL.

Could it be possible for Austria and Hungary to go the extra step and have a "velvet divorce" around this time, with Franz Josef relinquishing the Crown of St Stephen on his brother, yet retaining Austria for himself? And that Austria and Hungary have more or less amicable relations from then on?

And what happens next?

 

[Cryostorm]

If this manages to somehow happen then German unification will be more interesting since Austria no longer has the Magyars or Southern Slavs holding them back from joining the German Empire. Even if you keep Austria independent and the butterflies to a minimum you have gotten rid of the trigger for WWI since Austria will not be present in the Balkans, no Hungary and Croatia means no Bosnia annexation, which will reduce Austria-Russia tensions possibly leading to a more durable alliance of the Three Emperors.

 

[Richter von Manthofen]

HMMM - that gives a rather funny looking "rump" Austrian Empire.

If it hhappens 1867 then a worse 1866 might be the trigger.

Trento and Trieste would be gone for bad ITTL (Which might be GOOD for Germany)

Would there be some "bartering" between the two crowns. Croatia/Slavonia joins Austria and Galicia/Bukowina joins Hungary to get more "compact" entities (Hungary gets harbour rights in Fiume to compensate the loss of a coast maybe?)

Would Maximilian try to get good relations with the Russians in an alternate 1878 Russo Ottoman war Max joins Russia for a piece of flesh? - Austria and Hungary actually might compete on the Balkans after some time which make this powder keg worse...

(But I believe both brothers would feel that the Empire is indivisible - Thats why Max accepted a foreign crown in the first place...)

 

[raharris1973]

If this manages to somehow happen then German unification will be more interesting since Austria no longer has the Magyars or Southern Slavs holding them back from joining the German Empire.

hmm, creates a possibility of a South German federation with Cisleithania?

But Cisleithania remaining an independent junior ally to Prussia-Germany after the Franco-Prussian war.



Richter von Manthofen

HMMM - that gives a rather funny looking "rump" Austrian Empire.

indeed it would look odd.

Would there be some "bartering" between the two crowns. Croatia/Slavonia joins Austria and Galicia/Bukowina joins Hungary to get more "compact" entities (Hungary gets harbour rights in Fiume to compensate the loss of a coast maybe?)

Clever idea, and it would make for more compact realms. Austria, stretching from Bohemia to Dalmatia, has just removed causes of conflict with Russia or Romania. On the other hand, it would become more uncomprimising toward Italy. Austria, if secure in its relations with Germany, would spend more on the naval share of its defense budget, with Italy as its main enemy.

Meanwhile, Hungary gets the "treat" of brushing up against Russian interests and Balkan instability.

The two biggest problem I see with this are a) Hungary, wanting to retain Croatia for historic reasons and for a coastline, would find it hard to accept a trade. And adding Galicia to Hungary would freak out the Russians, because they would fear joint Magyar-Polish domination of the new Hungary, and would see it as destabilizing to their Polish lands. Prussia could be perturbed for the same reasons. It opens up a can of worms, possibly leading to Russian claims to some or all of Galicia.

Would Maximilian try to get good relations with the Russians in an alternate 1878 Russo Ottoman war Max joins Russia for a piece of flesh? -

The Hungarian body politic would be more sympathetic to Turkey by inclination. This would militate against allying with Russia. The Magyars would not want to absorb more Slavs. Except for Bosnia-Hercegovina, their fears of Slavic "dilution" was usually a restraining factor in Austro-Hungarian expansion.

Austria and Hungary actually might compete on the Balkans after some time which make this powder keg worse...

Probably not in the lifetime of the two monarchs. Hungary is clearly the more vulnerable of the two in case competition gets too rough.