AHC/WI: Mongols take Constantinople

[Mr_Fanboy]

Simple enough question: how possible would it have been for Mongol invaders (either in the form of the Golden Horde or the Ilkhanate) to have seized Constantinople during the 13th century? What might be a plausible series of events leading to this?

Depending on when such a siege would occur, either the Latin Empire or the Palaiogolos dynasty would have been in charge of the city. What sort of repercussions would it have for the Greeks, Turks, Slavs, Western Europeans, and others in the region, and should a Mongol state hold the city for a long period of time, how might things have played out differently? I imagine that these western Mongols would have claimed the mantle of the Roman Empire, but the religious situation may be interesting - what they still have adopted Islam, or might they decide that conversion to Christianity is a better choice? How much would it depend on whether the Golden Horde or the Ilkhanate take the city?

 

[AltoRegnant]

The idea of orthodox mongols taking the city of world's desire is interesting because it could lead to a sort of reconquista of anatolia and other parts of the Muslim world that used to be byzantine. More than a bit unlikely, but honestly the rise of the mongols as rulers of the world was probably weirder, however brief it was

 

[schai]

That is very interesting idea. Mongol was very open toward religious. I would imagine that after few generations, Mongol would learn to enjoy Byzantine art and culture and decide to convert to Orthodox Christianity. That would have a huge influence on Muslim Turks.

 

[Dolan]

They would be simply recorded as Mongol Dynasty of Eastern Roman Empire and might end up retaking Anatolia from the Turks.

In return, the Turks, driven out from Anatolia, might end up settling more in Syria and Mesopotamia, assimilating with the local Arabs there.

There will be no Turkey as we know them IOTL, this "Turkey" ITTL would roughly occupy the same spot with the fertile Crescent, and due to direct link to their Nomadic Homeland, would spread from Syria to Central Asia.

 

[Miguel Lanius]

The Empire doesn't seem in good shape to stop them in this time.

Would the Mongols straight take-over or put a puppet emperor in the throne? I feel like the Kommenoi are the best bet, as they became vassals of the Ilkhans at the time.

Are the Mongols even capable of taking it over in a straight siege? Reminder that Constantinople is like THE best defensible city on planet Earth at the time. The Persians could't do it, the Arabs could't do it and they tried twice. Turks only did with 1x20 manpower superiority and cannons, and it came this close to collapsing.

To take Constantinople you need:
- Holding the two sides of the strait
- Naval superiority
- Good supply lines to feed troops that will spend a good time surrounding it
- Something capable of taking down those walls

Daggers not catapults are the key, I feel.

Greece and Anatolia got pretty rough terrain so I feel that if the Mongols just try and go at it against the Roman armies they're gonna get rekt by people who know how to fight in those places. Horse Archers ain't gonna cut it in the Pelopponese. Could be wrong. They will need a greek core.

So we could have a Muscovy-Golden Horde kinda deal, with the ERE being a tributary of the Ilkhan. Constantinople falls through a mix of intrigue and intimidating dudes with a giant army on their doorstep. So we have inner Anatolia made of vassalized Turks and the Empire, which pays tribute because the Mongols keep the Turks out and the Empire knows what's good for them. Yeah the Frankokratia is fucked.

 

[alexmilman]

The idea of orthodox mongols taking the city of world's desire is interesting because it could lead to a sort of reconquista of anatolia and other parts of the Muslim world that used to be byzantine. More than a bit unlikely, but honestly the rise of the mongols as rulers of the world was probably weirder, however brief it was

There are couple technical problems:

1. The Christian Mongols were Nestorians, not Orthodox, and (at least according to Lev Gumilev) their relations with the Russian Orthodox Church were worse than those of the Muslims.

2. The borders. In OTL European part of the Byzantine empire was “linked” to the Golden Horde (Nogai, who was formally a vassal of the GH) married daughter of the Emperor, was helping him militarily, etc. (so he is the best candidate for the assigned role with the minimal deviations from OTL). BTW, he was a Muslim. OTOH, Anatolia was domain of Ilkhanate. So you’d need a major war between these two with a scope going well beyond the OTL conflict and a decisive victory of one side.

As an alternative, you can make this conquest a part of the Mongolian Western Campaign but this would require a serious rearrangement of the priorities and probably extended rule of Ogedei: invasion of Hungary and Poland were “not negotiable” so conquest of Constantinople should happen on the second stage of this campaign. Scenario is not too complicated, providing Ogedei is still alive and Mongolian Army is not falling apart. 1st, some of the Kipchaks escaping Hungary end up not only in Bulgaria but also in the Latin Empire (not a must but makes political side slightly easier). 2nd, the Mongols are sending to the emperor standard request to expel these Kipchaks and to recognize the Great Khan as a sovereign. 3rd, the envoys are killed (which happened all over the place) and the Mongols have cases belli. Latin Empire is invaded, Constantinople taken and Franks are massacred. 4th, Nicean empire immediately recognizes the Great Khan as the boss, Constantinople is delivered to the new vassal and perhaps some troops being sent to help him in Anatolia: Ilkhanate is not there, yet, so there is no conflict of interests.

 

[alexmilman]

The Empire doesn't seem in good shape to stop them in this time.

Would the Mongols straight take-over or put a puppet emperor in the throne? I feel like the Kommenoi are the best bet, as they became vassals of the Ilkhans at the time.

Are the Mongols even capable of taking it over in a straight siege? Reminder that Constantinople is like THE best defensible city on planet Earth at the time. The Persians could't do it, the Arabs could't do it and they tried twice. Turks only did with 1x20 manpower superiority and cannons, and it came this close to collapsing.

To take Constantinople you need:
- Holding the two sides of the strait
- Naval superiority
- Good supply lines to feed troops that will spend a good time surrounding it
- Something capable of taking down those walls

Daggers not catapults are the key, I feel.

Greece and Anatolia got pretty rough terrain so I feel that if the Mongols just try and go at it against the Roman armies they're gonna get rekt by people who know how to fight in those places. Horse Archers ain't gonna cut it in the Pelopponese. Could be wrong. They will need a greek core.

So we could have a Muscovy-Golden Horde kinda deal, with the ERE being a tributary of the Ilkhan. Constantinople falls through a mix of intrigue and intimidating dudes with a giant army on their doorstep. So we have inner Anatolia made of vassalized Turks and the Empire, which pays tribute because the Mongols keep the Turks out and the Empire knows what's good for them. Yeah the Frankokratia is fucked.

Which time frame are you talking about?

At the time when one can talk abou “Muscovy” opportunity is long gone. The realistic time frame is one of the extended Western Campaign (Ogedei would have to live longer) when the Mongols had necessary numbers, equipment and leaders and had been geographically close.

At that time the ERE does not exist: you have Latin Empire in Europe and around the Straits and Nicean Empire to the East of it. The Latin Empire is already weak and starts losing ground to the Niceans. The fortifications are there but you need to have enough troops to defend them and, anyway, at that specific time the Mongols have direct experience of besieging and taking fortified cities of China and Central Asia and can easily get a cooperation from the Niceans. Complete naval blockade is not necessary because the Venetians can’t provide too much practical help. The LE could not muster any significant number of troops and it did not have any local support. Couple decades later (1261) Nicean general entered Constantinople through the unguarded gates and occupied it with 800 troops. In 1240s Mongolian task could be a little bit more difficult but not too much so, especially if the whole thing is done as returning city to the Byzantine ruler (who would be a Mongolian vassal).