AHC/WI: USSR Invades Nazi Germany

[HeavyWeaponsGuy]

Keeping the front line away from the USSR's industrial heartland will definatly help them and make them stronger than OTTL - they will have a much easier time of improving their forces even if the invasion isnt a sucess.

Or they'll gut themselves in a fruitless attack and leave room for a counterattack.

 

[b12ox]

The Soviets have around 1000 of each by mid-1941 and more on the way. The T-26 and various BT types are the main tanks in the Soviet arsenal in mid-1941, whilst inferior to the Pz 3 and 4 they could deal easily with the Pz-1 and 2 types which still made up a large bulk of German armour, and even when we remove the tanks written off by breakdowns, they still heavily outnumber the more advanced German designs. As the Germans found out in OTL, quantity has a quality all of its own.

They had a good number of T34's, some few hundredes, ahead of AGC behind the river Bug and quite a few of KV-1'S, but no ideas to make good use them when things got rolling. The strategy relied on the weight of old armour and the T34 brigades were subordinate to it. Many tanks stalled in swamps due to panic and bad deployment.

 

[b12ox]

could the USSR really hide or explain away the massive troop movements needed to prepare for an invasion of Germany like the Germans before Barbarossa?

Despite many of the advantages that they would gain from a pre-emptive attack, the shortcomings of their armed forces at the time combined with the fact that the Germans would likely see the attack coming wouldn't result in a steamroll in any way.

In the long run the Germans would likely loose but only because of their exhaustion. Someone with more knowledge on the tactics and commanders of the wehrmacht could say how well they could exploit a massive counterattack on a totally disorganised Soviet army that doesn't have the ability to turn around once it starts rolling forward.

That's what happened in OTL. They had that make-shift plan to counter strike, at least until the defences were ready and the army upgraded. It didn't do much good.

 

[Snake Featherston]

What would have to happen is a whole raft of PODs that change the whole scenario in the lead-in to WWII so much we're describing a scenario only similar in having a USSR and a Germany run by the Nazi Party involved. The Soviet Union at a bare minimum needs T-34s, a much broader distribution of its assault rifles, the full development of the Deep Operations concept, and a leadership inclined to Nazi-style reckless inclination to start Big Damn Wars. The Soviets have neither the ability nor the power to do this even if they in some ATL develop a completely uncharacteristic for any version of Russia will to do so. Russia benefits by divide and conquer through undermining its neighbors politically, not by "Oh hey, let's start a major war all by ourselves."

 

[Snake Featherston]

Tannenburg Mark 2. The Red Army Officer Corps and training have suffered due to Stalin's purges. Some of he new equipment like the new KVs will be a nasty surprise for the Germans but the battle experienced Wehrmacht will work out ways to deal with these. German operational superiority will enable them to cut off and destroy over extended Red Army armoured forces. This will be followed up with something like Barbarossa only easier for the Germans

Barbarossa still won't work because the Red Army has too much army for it to work. The Red Army also lost most of its mechanized forces in the first 14 days of Barbarossa IOTL and beat Nazi panzers with riflemen IOTL, so I fail to see how this scenario works any differently in this regard than IOTL, where as we all know the Nazi intention to invade the USSR by Genghis Khan's methods didn't work for them.

 

[Rich Rostrom]

What would have to happen for the USSR to invade Germany?

When? In OTL 1940 or 1941?

I understand that they were preparing for war when Hitler invaded and that they would have attacked eventually.

Stalin told the Politburo in 1939 that his policy was for Germany to fight the western Allies as long as possible. It looks to me that he had plans for an eventual drive into middle Europe. The Red Army was enormous, with more tanks than the rest of the world combined. (Fact. Most of them were junk, but nobody knew that yet.)

Possible scenario 1.

The Allies re-break Enigma a few weeks earlier in 1940. This provides clear warning of the invasion of Norway, which they defeat. Hitler postpones the attack on France for several weeks. In the meantime the Allies persuade Belgium to cooperate (the example of Norway).

The Allies also build up air power in France (additional production by France, more of Fighter Command shifted from Britain as after Norway there is no fear of German invasion).

Hitler attacks in July 1940; the campaign is a very limited success, with the Germans checked outside Brussels and in the Ardennes. Then the Germans turn SE, flanking the Maginot Line, and win a major victory, though they still are nowhere near Paris when winter sets in. But it's enough to hold off German defeatists.

In 1941, the Germans renew their attacks in France, and Hitler persuades Spain and Italy to join in. (Hitler cleverly maneuvers Franco into stating his conditions before Spanish witnesses - then says "OK" to general rejoicing.) France collapses.

However the Allies hold out in North Africa - having complete naval superiority. Later in 1941, the Axis invades Morocco and conquers French North Africa by mid 1942. (The Allies having taken Libya and East Africa.) The German armed forces have been heavily engaged in all this fighting, and Hitler hasn't even considered striking east yet.

But Stalin sees his chance. He invents a casus belli and sends the Red Army west in July 1942. (He doesn't want to wait for Germany to redeploy to the east...) Also the USSR goes into Romania to cut off Germany's oil supply.

How does the war play out from there? Well, Germany is going to be hit hard. The Red Army will be much better equipped than in OTL 1941. OTOH the Red Army will still be half-lobotomized from the Great Purge, with thousands of colonels and generals promoted beyond their military qualifications for political reliability.

There will be some initial Soviet success, but heavy casualties on both sides, and the Soviets won't be able to sustain their advance due to logistical weakness (as in OTL throughout the war). Germany will rally and begin a massive pushback; the overextended Soviets will get badly cut up.

But the Germans won't deliver a knockout blow either - they'll have taken heavy losses, besides the attrition from the fighting in the west, and they'll be really short of fuel.

Meanwhile Britain and the French Empire will try to push back in Africa, keep Europe blockaded, and bomb Germany.

This slugging match could go on for quite a few years.

Note that I've not mentioned the US or Japan. Assume they both remain neutral. That cuts out Lend-Lease aid, which was really quite important to the Soviets. Without Lend-Lease and a major Western Front, I don't think they would have defeated Germany. Nor been defeated, either.