Health care is probably the biggest difference and possibly (but probably not likely) a quicker withdrawal from Iraq. If Gore pushes for Health Care at all during his first term, it won't be his top priority and will be much smaller than OTL. A stimulus package similar to OTL passes in 2009 as well. Gore's pet issue was the environment, so that IMHO, will be his first term priority if the economy isn't, and he'll face some stiff opposition on it. Worst case scenario is that he loses in 2012, but unless he ROYALY screws up, it'll be very close and he won't leave the country any worse than he found it. I think others might have a better idea than me, but that's how I see it.
Al Gore 2008
- Thread starter Pericles
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Health care is probably the biggest difference and possibly (but probably not likely) a quicker withdrawal from Iraq. If Gore pushes for Health Care at all during his first term, it won't be his top priority and will be much smaller than OTL. A stimulus package similar to OTL passes in 2009 as well. Gore's pet issue was the environment, so that IMHO, will be his first term priority if the economy isn't, and he'll face some stiff opposition on it. Worst case scenario is that he loses in 2012, but unless he ROYALY screws up, it'll be very close and he won't leave the country any worse than he found it. I think others might have a better idea than me, but that's how I see it.
Yes, I've been thinking that 2012 would be close. Maybe cap and trade can be his Hillarycare but then he recovers as the economy improves. Maybe.
Another interesting thing is that Gore would be a white male, so his election wouldn't make history in itself. How would the GOP act differently when a black man is not President? Maybe there could be less identity politics and the rise of Trump could be averted. How did race effect Obama's presidency? It could have had many effects on the Obama presidency but the issue is unclear, so there could be butterflies from that alone.
How would Gore be different from Obama on the economy? Would he be able to push through a bigger stimulus? And what would be the results of the 2008 House and Senate elections? Would he get a Senate supermajority like Obama?
How would Gore be different from Obama on the economy? Would he be able to push through a bigger stimulus? And what would be the results of the 2008 House and Senate elections? Would he get a Senate supermajority like Obama?
I think the GOP would be a little less hostile (although not much), so it's still gonna be a battle getting anything done, however I think Gore would accomplish more due to the fact that he has more experience than Obama, and I do think there'd be less identity politics. I think race did have an effect on Obama's presidency, but I wonder how much changes without that factor. Bill Clinton had hostility from the GOP (Gingrich, Starr, Delay, etc...), so Gore is bound to have some to in one form or another.
Gore on the economy would be somewhere in between Bill Clinton and Barack Obama (to the left of Clinton, to the right of Obama), so I doubt there'd be much difference, as for the stimulus he certainly wouldn't push for anything smaller, but I question if he'd push anything bigger as I think Gore would play 2009 and 2010 safer than Obama. If the stimulus is different with Gore, it'll have more spending towards renewable energy jobs maybe?
As for the House and Senate, the Democrats will certainly gain seats, but how much depends on how Gore campaigns and how much he helps down ballot. Even in 2000, when he ran a lousy campaign and lost, the Democrats made gains in the House and Senate. The House and Senate races also depend on voter turnout. Are black voters and young voters as fired up to vote for Gore as they were for Obama?
OK. Do you think the Democrats would do better in 2008 than they did IOTL? This is important because many of Obama's initiatives, such as Obamacare, squeaked by narrowly escaping a filibuster so if there were less Democrats their agenda is at risk and more Democrats gives Gore more room to maneuver. What do you think?
I can't see them doing better, so they'd do same or worse, but even if they do worse, given how bad of shape the GOP was in that year, there would still be Democratic gains in congress. On the one hand, smaller majorities than OTL make it harder for Gore to get anything done. On the other hand, as I've said here before and probably in other threads, Obama was inexperience and IMHO, politically inept. Even if Gore was politically inept at times, he did have much more experience than Obama did, so that could somewhat balance out having smaller majorities.
Your argument about inexperience and ineptness is interesting. But I'm not sure if it's accurate, and while Obama did make some mistakes I struggle to see him getting Republican votes for his initiatives. And experience didn't seem to matter that much, for example during the financial crisis when McCain called his meeting Obama was calm, collected and intelligent according to most observations while McCain was erratic, taking irrational gambles and ultiamtely losing while Obama was winning. And Obama was no Carter, he proved pretty competent in many areas. Rubio was right, it wasn't incompetence, Obama knew exactly what he was doing. I digress, but can you go into more detail about how Obama's inexperience hurt his presidency, and maybe some examples?
Thanks
Your argument about inexperience and ineptness is interesting. But I'm not sure if it's accurate, and while Obama did make some mistakes I struggle to see him getting Republican votes for his initiatives. And experience didn't seem to matter that much, for example during the financial crisis when McCain called his meeting Obama was calm, collected and intelligent according to most observations while McCain was erratic, taking irrational gambles and ultiamtely losing while Obama was winning. And Obama was no Carter, he proved pretty competent in many areas. Rubio was right, it wasn't incompetence, Obama knew exactly what he was doing. I digress, but can you go into more detail about how Obama's inexperience hurt his presidency, and maybe some examples?
Thanks
For me, Obama wasn't in the Senate long enough to really get to know the congressional leadership and learn how to get things through Congress. Sure, he had the Illinois state legislature, but being from Illinois, I can honestly say that Illinois state politics works a lot differently than politics of other states and federal politics. Mike Madigan and John Cullerton run the state, and what ever they want they get. At bad as Washington is, more people have a say in things and their votes count. Plus, Obama voted "present" more often than not as a Senator so he really didn't have much of a record in the Senate and really didn't do much of anything there. It was nothing more than a launching pad, granted that's true for anyone that's elected President, whether they were a Governor or a Senator previously, but most others make use of their previous office, Obama didn't IMHO. This was why, despite my support of Bernie Sanders now, I supported Hillary Clinton in the primaries in 2008. I just didn't feel he was ready.
If Bill Clinton, for example, had Democratic majorities in 1993 and 1994 that Obama had in 2009 and 2010 and had the mandate that Obama got in 2008, not only would a experienced and skilled politician like Clinton have gotten health care reform (dare I say universal health care), he would've have gotten much more, both economically and otherwise. Obama barely got health care reform, and had to spend his entire political capitol and mandate to get it, and what he got was essentially RomneyCare gone national. Think of how much better off we'd be economically if more of that capitol and mandate was used on the economy. Plus, from what I've seen, Obama walks into negotiations with a compromise bill to compromise from. That's not how it works. One side has their plan, the other has theirs, and you take pieces of both plans to come up with a compromise. I doubt a President Gore TTL would work like that and being VP in the '90s, he'd know what he was up against with regards to the GOP, Obama had no idea.
Also, at least with Foreign policy, Obama, at least over the last three years, seems to be caught off guard when something happens, and then draws red lines just to have them crossed, again someone with experience wouldn't have this issue. Granted, I'm glad we didn't go into Syria and feel there isn't a whole lot we could've done with Russia, but still, he just came off as inept throughout the whole ordeal. A President Gore, IMHO, would either act, or make a good case as to why we shouldn't (I would hope the later).
By no means do I think Obama is terrible, I did cast my first vote for him in 2012, and feel that either alternative to him, McCain or Romney, would be worse. However, I do think things could've been much better and because of everything I said in this post, his Presidency was hurt.
I hope I'm not too late to weigh in on this timeline if you plan to revisit it but, could Gore's VP be John Edwards or Evan Bayh? Just a plot element of him choosing someone from his 2000 shortlist. Edwards was skating on thin ice in 2008, so probably Bayh. His support of HRC would unite the party. Also, could the GOP nominee be Mitt Romney in 2008 and Newt Gingrich in 2012? Another plot element in which Gore faces off against the foe of the Dems during his Vice Presidency.
Interesting ideas. I think that could depend on how long the primary fight is. i think Newt would gain no traction without Romney, Romney's candidacy allowed the not-Romney dynamic to emerge and lift up whatvere no-hoper was in the race, with Romney gone more serious candidates like Mitch Daniels, jeb Bush, Huckabee etc would likely have run and got momentum. Newt vs Gore is an interesting idea, thanks for that.
I think Jeb Bush Vs. Gore in 2012 or Gore's VP in 2016 could be another interesting plot element.
Maybe HRC is not a major contender in 2016. maybe she doesn't get SoS and stays in the Senate and is overtaken by Bayh and a new generation of Democrats. Or maybe not.
I thought about it again and 2012 is too soon for Jeb Bush. It is only four years after his brother and independent voters or possibly the GOP itself will be feeling Bush Fatigue, but it was a good try at a Gore Vs. Bush rematch. Do you think Gore could win Florida this time?
Another plot element I crafted was Mike Huckabee winning the GOP nomination in 2008, the POD being him winning South Carolina and gaining traction afterwards. Bill Clinton coaches Gore on how to beat the governor of his home state, despite feeling bitter about his wife's defeat. Because John McCain is unlikely to return in 2012, two birds are killed with one stone, but Romney still remains. Maybe the POD to knock Romney off of his pedestal is Rick Santorum staying in the race longer and winning Illinois, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania. Gingrich could take advantage of Romney and Santorum bashing each other or he could play Santorum's friend until he implodes.
On 2016, Barack Obama (re-elected to the Senate in 2010) would likely jump in and it would be a three-way race between HRC Vs. Gore's VP Vs. Obama. Obama would likely win the nomination because HRC and Gore's VP would be seen as too "Old Crowd" and Obama as the Hope and Change candidate he was OTL.
Another plot element I crafted was Mike Huckabee winning the GOP nomination in 2008, the POD being him winning South Carolina and gaining traction afterwards. Bill Clinton coaches Gore on how to beat the governor of his home state, despite feeling bitter about his wife's defeat. Because John McCain is unlikely to return in 2012, two birds are killed with one stone, but Romney still remains. Maybe the POD to knock Romney off of his pedestal is Rick Santorum staying in the race longer and winning Illinois, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania. Gingrich could take advantage of Romney and Santorum bashing each other or he could play Santorum's friend until he implodes.
On 2016, Barack Obama (re-elected to the Senate in 2010) would likely jump in and it would be a three-way race between HRC Vs. Gore's VP Vs. Obama. Obama would likely win the nomination because HRC and Gore's VP would be seen as too "Old Crowd" and Obama as the Hope and Change candidate he was OTL.
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Interesting ideas. Not sure if a Huckabee win is plausible, even if he wins South Carolina. Maybe.
For 2012 if Romney doesn't run the establishment might choose Jeb, though there's the chance it'd end like his OTL 2016 campaign. If not, Gore might win a narrow victory. Maybe Jeb does better than Romney and in an ironic twist wins the popular vote.
I doubt Gore and the Clintons would have a good relationship. IOTL they don't like each other, and if Gore beats them in 2008 that could turn to full-on loathing. Maybe if Gore becomes unpopular Hillary could primary challenge him, though probably not. I think she'll stay in the Senate.
Obama might not be such a popular figure by 2016. Part of his appeal was he was new and change. In 2010 he might run for Governor of Illinois and be just a normal politician.
I've been giving this idea some renewed thought. Maybe 2012 will be closer. The loser of 2012 could run in 2016, there was speculation IOTL that Romney would run in 2016 and that idea would be stronger with the Gore precedent. What do you think of the idea of Gore running in 2008? What would his presidency be like if he wins?
First time posting in years, but to give Gore the most plausible chance in 2008, I think the best way would be to have him lose Florida in 2000 by JUST a little more. Just enough for him to concede the election, say the next morning, even though he wins the PV. By choosing to do that he would have earned a lot of good will with the general population.
Heck, it adds more parallels to Nixon in 1960 too.
Heck, it adds more parallels to Nixon in 1960 too.