Alcibiades is tried before the Athenian expedition to Sicily departs and found innocent

Could Alcibiades have secured Sicily if he remained in charge of the Sicilian expedition? If he could, what would be the outcome of Syracuse and Sicily falling under Athenian control? Would Alcibiades become too revered in Athens for his enemies to rid of him?
 
The beggining of the expedition
In order to arrive in Sicily before winter the three commanders discuss strategy while Alcibiades' trial is ongoing, Alcibiades is temporarily politically weakened by the uncertainty of his future, so he compromises and supports Lamachus' strategy of swiftly sailing directly to Syracuse and giving battle with the advantage of the element of surprise. Preparations are made and as the trial advances and Alcibiades' innocence seems more and more likely he regains prominence. Finally, Alcibiades is found innocent and the expedition sails to Sicily, they will not stop in Italy to look for allies, rather they will go straight to Syracuse.

The Athenian army lands just outside of Syracuse. While some in Syracuse suspected Athens' intentions the consensus was that it was unlikely that the Athenians wanted to wage war on Syracuse, so they are caught with their pants down. The Syracusans have two options, either they engage the Athenian army outside the city or they subject themselves to a siege for which they were not prepared where they would be cut off any supply of food both by land and by water. A siege would mean Syracuse can't exploit their cavalry superiority, the Syracusans had more than a thousand cavalry and the Athenians less than fifty, a siege would also give the Athenians the opportunity to seek alliances from the other cities in Sicily and they would be doing so from a position of strength while already besieging the city. After some deliberation Syracuse decides to engage the Athenians and the city charges Hermocrates to disperse the invading army.

There is a battle outside of Syracuse, Alcibiades is the main commander of the Athenian army and Lamachus has a strong influence in the decision-making since the strategy of the invasion was his, Nicias is sidelined and his role as commander becomes mostly ceremonial. They battle outside the city (OTL the Athenians engaged the Syracusans, but TTL the Syracusans want to rout the Athenian army to prevent a siege). The armies engage and after some fierce fighting (like in OTL), the Athenian allies push the Syracusan left wing causing the army to rout (but unlike in OTL the Syracusan cavalry doesn't prevent the Athenians from giving pursuit since they can't manoeuvre freely between the Athenian army and the walls of Syracuse), the Syracusan army's retreat is cumbersome as they have to go through the city gates to go back in. The battle ends in an Athenian victory (greater than in OTL with twice as many Syracusan losses). After the battle, the siege of Syracuse begins.
 
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Maybe I'll continue the TL later, but it'd be great if someone can tell me how plausible this is.
 
The whole point of trying Alcibiades after the army sailed was to get a conviction. The opposition knew he was popular with army, so they waited till they left so they'd get a guilty verdict. When the fleet, and army sailed they had to land in Italy to secure a friendly supply base and take on stores. It would be imprudent not to have a secure port to fall back on and for secure communications with home, and for reinforcements to stage too.

The third option for the Syracusans was to accept the Athenian offer of an alliance. The Syracusans weren't prepared for a siege, and none of their allies came to their aid. Nicias made the mistake of engaging in protracted negotiations which bought the Syracusans time to rebuild defenses and put heart in their allies. Alcibiades would give them a short time to consider his offer before starting a siege by moving the fleet into the outer harbor and establish a naval camp to support a blockade before moving on the city. The Athenians have to win quickly because the longer it goes on the more cities of Sicily will join Syracuse, and Athenian supply problems will multiply.
 
The whole point of trying Alcibiades after the army sailed was to get a conviction. The opposition knew he was popular with army, so they waited till they left so they'd get a guilty verdict. When the fleet, and army sailed they had to land in Italy to secure a friendly supply base and take on stores. It would be imprudent not to have a secure port to fall back on and for secure communications with home, and for reinforcements to stage too.

The third option for the Syracusans was to accept the Athenian offer of an alliance. The Syracusans weren't prepared for a siege, and none of their allies came to their aid. Nicias made the mistake of engaging in protracted negotiations which bought the Syracusans time to rebuild defenses and put heart in their allies. Alcibiades would give them a short time to consider his offer before starting a siege by moving the fleet into the outer harbor and establish a naval camp to support a blockade before moving on the city. The Athenians have to win quickly because the longer it goes on the more cities of Sicily will join Syracuse, and Athenian supply problems will multiply.
I agree with your first paragraph, but the POD would be that Alcibiades outmanoeuvres his political enemies and manages to be tried before departing, as he wanted in OTL. As for your point about a secure port, you are right, but they already had some allies in the region, both in Sicily and in Italy, what I meant was that they would not try to secure further allies, as they did in OTL.

Did the Athenians want an alliance with the Syracusans at all? I thought the whole point of the expedition was to make sure Syracuse couldn't aid Corinth with whom they had close relationships, they wanted to secure Sicily as an Athenian hold, and for that, they had to defeat Syracuse.

What was Alcibiades' offer?

I agree that the Athenians are also racing against the clock, that's why they fought outside the city, it is a risky strategy but that was the strategy Lachemus was pushing for in the OTL right? The idea is that now that the Syracusans are bloodied and a siege is underway they are likely to surrender.

Thank you for your feedback :)
 

Hecatee

Donor
Given the amount of forces Athens brought to bear and the sheer lack of organization the sources describe on the Syracusan part before the arrival of the Spartan commander, I do believe a more dynamic approach led by Alcibiades might well have worked. But I don't see them doing a straight up attack on Syracuse, they require a base closer, so I see the capture of Catane taking place, and from there an attack on Syracuse that would be led more efficiently. Even if Lamachos dies then Alcibiade remains, completing the fortifications and making sure the fleet is more active, potentially capturing the 4 ships of Gyllipus. The siege itself would take some time, the city is large and well fortified, but the constant reinforcement of the walls around it prevent any sortie by the Syracusans while the fleet keeps the harbor mostly shut. We are in a time before catapults or other siege weapons of the kind, the only solutions are primitive rams that are massively inneficient. Instead of wasting too much time, Alcibiade may organize expeditions rotating soldiers to coerce the rest of Sicily into supporting him. His mastery of the sea negates any advantage in cavalry the enemy might have, and he manages to subdue enough cities to actually cover his costs and keep his army in the field. After a full winter that does not see the Athenians go back home the Syracusans are forced to admit their defeat and submit to Athens. Their fleet is seized, and a guarrison is installed on Ortygia before most of the Athenians go back home. The expected plunder did not materialize, but enough come back home somewhat richer than they left for the expedition to be deemed a success. On the way back the Athenians stop in Corcyra and then on the nearby mainland, enforcing their will on the Corinthian colonies who don't dare fight the heroes of Sicily, especially as Corinth does not feel it can beat the Athenian fleet.

The return in Athens is a triumph, and Alcibiade is elected strategos for the third year in a row.
 
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