OTL the Balkan wars resulted in the defeat of Bulgaria, the break up of the Balkan League, Serbia becoming Russia's number one protege on the Balkan's, boosted by victory in moral and material with Austria remaining it's only target for expansion. Basically an austrian-serbian conflict was set up that OTL shortly led to the outbreak of WWI. So what if we change the second Balkan's war?
What were the policies of the great powers OTL before the 2nd war?
Russia: Russia was the agreed-upon judge of the Balkan League who was supposed to decide in regards to the division of spoils. They decided to support Serbia against Bulgaria in the question of Macedonia but tried to retain the loyalty of Bulgaria by supporting Bulgarian claims on Serres against the Greeks. Russia also made the first steps towards Romania.
Austria: Austria sought to forge an alliance between Romania and Bulgaria. They supported Bulgarian claims in Macedonia against Serbia and on Serres against Greece. They were determined to support Albania and to prevent a Serbian port.
Germany: This was the first time Germany had an independent Balkan policy in a crisis - and many times contradictory to Austrian goals. They thought that Bulgaria and the bulgarian tzar were untrustworthy and first and foremost supported the Hohenzollern's Romania. They also tried to pressure Austria to make up with Serbia - they saw that most of the Balkan states would unite against Bulgaria and wanted to ally with that side. They also supported Austria in Albania. They supported Greece on the Serres question.
France: supported Greece on the Serres question though I don't remember the reasoning.
Germany deciding to not align itself with Austria was I think a big mistake - they should have understood that a serbian-austria alliance was practically impossible at this point. So let's have the Germans go hand in hand with Austria instead. Lets have them put successfully pressure on Bulgaria and Romania to negotiate an alliance - Bulgaria will hand over South Dobruja to the romanians in exchange of military help. So the 2nd Balkan wars has Bulgaria and Romania vs Serbia and Greece. In the end Bulgarian side wins, wants to annex the whole of Serbian Macedonia and even Nis. Greece manages to hold Saloniki but it will be on the border. The Ottoman attack still happens and manages to push back the bulgarian to have the border more or less per OTL - its the reason that stops the bulgarian advance against the greeks and serbians (and romanian refusal to help against the ottomans as that was not in the treaty).
What do you think would happen next?
I think the biggest question is how does Russia react:
Bulgaria: Russia I think already saw Bulgaria as too independent/strong and untrustworthy - hence them siding with Serbia. Now a bigger and victorious Bulgaria would be even more problematic in terms of control. OTOH Bulgaria would be unquestionably the strongest 'small' state on the Balkans, and even if Russia already made it clear earlier that it supports Serbia I think the two had a kind of long standing special relationship that made it a pretty easy prospect for Russia to regain the alliance of Bulgaria.
Serbia: it lost the war and it's worth is much diminished. But they seem still more useful against Austria than Bulgaria. They would be also utterly at Russia's mercy in this setup. I also think that Serbia coming out of the Balkan wars defeated and humbled would not require a demonstration of strength from the Habsburgs (maybe no Austrian maneuvers in Bosnia in 1914 designed especially to provoke the serbs) and maybe even the black hand would be less keen to seek confrontation with Austria so soon after a decisive defeat.
Whoever Russia ultimately decides to support (probably would try to patch up the Balkans League but I think it unlikely that Bulgaria gets seriously involved against Austria - their remaining claims are on Romania and the Ottomans but Russia really does not wants the Bulgarians anywhere near Constantinople so they are of little use) I think with the effects of Serbia's defeat WWI would be delayed for sure and might be completely avoided. Thoughts?
What were the policies of the great powers OTL before the 2nd war?
Russia: Russia was the agreed-upon judge of the Balkan League who was supposed to decide in regards to the division of spoils. They decided to support Serbia against Bulgaria in the question of Macedonia but tried to retain the loyalty of Bulgaria by supporting Bulgarian claims on Serres against the Greeks. Russia also made the first steps towards Romania.
Austria: Austria sought to forge an alliance between Romania and Bulgaria. They supported Bulgarian claims in Macedonia against Serbia and on Serres against Greece. They were determined to support Albania and to prevent a Serbian port.
Germany: This was the first time Germany had an independent Balkan policy in a crisis - and many times contradictory to Austrian goals. They thought that Bulgaria and the bulgarian tzar were untrustworthy and first and foremost supported the Hohenzollern's Romania. They also tried to pressure Austria to make up with Serbia - they saw that most of the Balkan states would unite against Bulgaria and wanted to ally with that side. They also supported Austria in Albania. They supported Greece on the Serres question.
France: supported Greece on the Serres question though I don't remember the reasoning.
Germany deciding to not align itself with Austria was I think a big mistake - they should have understood that a serbian-austria alliance was practically impossible at this point. So let's have the Germans go hand in hand with Austria instead. Lets have them put successfully pressure on Bulgaria and Romania to negotiate an alliance - Bulgaria will hand over South Dobruja to the romanians in exchange of military help. So the 2nd Balkan wars has Bulgaria and Romania vs Serbia and Greece. In the end Bulgarian side wins, wants to annex the whole of Serbian Macedonia and even Nis. Greece manages to hold Saloniki but it will be on the border. The Ottoman attack still happens and manages to push back the bulgarian to have the border more or less per OTL - its the reason that stops the bulgarian advance against the greeks and serbians (and romanian refusal to help against the ottomans as that was not in the treaty).
What do you think would happen next?
I think the biggest question is how does Russia react:
Bulgaria: Russia I think already saw Bulgaria as too independent/strong and untrustworthy - hence them siding with Serbia. Now a bigger and victorious Bulgaria would be even more problematic in terms of control. OTOH Bulgaria would be unquestionably the strongest 'small' state on the Balkans, and even if Russia already made it clear earlier that it supports Serbia I think the two had a kind of long standing special relationship that made it a pretty easy prospect for Russia to regain the alliance of Bulgaria.
Serbia: it lost the war and it's worth is much diminished. But they seem still more useful against Austria than Bulgaria. They would be also utterly at Russia's mercy in this setup. I also think that Serbia coming out of the Balkan wars defeated and humbled would not require a demonstration of strength from the Habsburgs (maybe no Austrian maneuvers in Bosnia in 1914 designed especially to provoke the serbs) and maybe even the black hand would be less keen to seek confrontation with Austria so soon after a decisive defeat.
Whoever Russia ultimately decides to support (probably would try to patch up the Balkans League but I think it unlikely that Bulgaria gets seriously involved against Austria - their remaining claims are on Romania and the Ottomans but Russia really does not wants the Bulgarians anywhere near Constantinople so they are of little use) I think with the effects of Serbia's defeat WWI would be delayed for sure and might be completely avoided. Thoughts?
