Austrian invasion of Hungary?

[dandan_noodles]

"All objective observers laid the decline of the Austro-Hungarian military at Hungary’s door. The rulers in Vienna were no exception, and following the 1903 concessions those outside the emperor’s drowsy and rather credulous inner circle began planning to do something about the Hungarian impediment. Quietly, the forty-two-year-old Archduke Franz Ferdinand added a Plan U—as in Ungarn (Hungary)—to the raft of Austrian war plans in 1905. If the Hungarians continued their obstruction of every Austrian effort to revive the monarchy, a large Austrian army would stream into Hungary by rail and the Danube, seize Budapest, and install a Habsburg military governor. Of the five Austro-Hungarian corps situated in Transleithania, only one—IV Corps, recruited around Budapest—was expected to fight for Hungary in a civil war. The rest were manned with Croats, Rumanians, Slovaks, Ukrainians, and Serbs and were expected to fight for the emperor. According to the French embassy, a civil war “like 1848,” when Austrian troops had invaded Hungary and crushed a revolution there, was avoided in the early 1900s only because the Hungarians knew that they would lose a military contest and the Austrians feared that the Italians would seize the opportunity presented by an Austro-Hungarian civil war to invade contested Habsburg territories like Trieste, Trentino, and South Tyrol."

From Geoffrey Wawro A Mad Catastrophe

Seeing as the decline of the Habsburg army led pretty directly to the fall of the dynasty and the total collapse of Austria's great power status, would the Austrians have been better off if they'd just forcibly incorporated Transleithania into a unitary monarchy? Would this be a move they could coordinate with Germany to dissuade rival powers from taking advantage?

 

[BigDestiny]

From the look of it, I'm surprised it was never authorized as I don't see a down side. But then I've long been of the opinion that the compromise fatally weakened the Hapsburg monarchy, and that their obsession with the Balkans was foolish.

While a civil war would distract Austria, I can't see the other powers interfering unless it seems like the Empire is in danger of completely unravelling. Italy getting involved would end very badly, for them.

The civil war would be short, especially once the non-Magyar portions of Transleithenia rose up. Any push made into Tyrol or Trieste could (according to OTL comparisons) be minimized and once the Austrian army was available, Italy would be ready for a complete spanking.

Venezia and possibly Lombardy fall back into Austrian orbit, and Austria will be freer to make an arrangement with Russia on the sharing of the Balkans. Not only does this cut the chances of World War One happening, a de facto Three Emperors League could hold Austria together for decades. Possibly even to today.

 

[SealTheRealDeal]

The passage doesn't mention the Honved, which would add about another corps or two to Budapest's defenders.

 

[dandan_noodles]

From the look of it, I'm surprised it was never authorized as I don't see a down side. But then I've long been of the opinion that the compromise fatally weakened the Hapsburg monarchy, and that their obsession with the Balkans was foolish.

While a civil war would distract Austria, I can't see the other powers interfering unless it seems like the Empire is in danger of completely unravelling. Italy getting involved would end very badly, for them.

The civil war would be short, especially once the non-Magyar portions of Transleithenia rose up. Any push made into Tyrol or Trieste could (according to OTL comparisons) be minimized and once the Austrian army was available, Italy would be ready for a complete spanking.

Venezia and possibly Lombardy fall back into Austrian orbit, and Austria will be freer to make an arrangement with Russia on the sharing of the Balkans. Not only does this cut the chances of World War One happening, a de facto Three Emperors League could hold Austria together for decades. Possibly even to today.

I don't necessarily think the Austrian focus on the Balkans was mistaken; there's all this territory not spoken for by any great power, and Salonika would be a prize of inestimable value to the monarchy. The key would be cutting the Magyars down to size so Austria could once more boast an army befitting a Great Power, one that could crush Serbia, defend against the Russians, and clear a path to this jewel on the Aegean. Actually coordinating war plans with the Germans would also help: 'You do War Plan Russia and we'll do War Plan Serbia' or 'You handle France then come back east, we'll hold off the Russians in the meantime' or 'Let's get the Russians out of the way first'; literally any combination would be better than what they did OTL.

 

[lukedalton]

From the look of it, I'm surprised it was never authorized as I don't see a down side. But then I've long been of the opinion that the compromise fatally weakened the Hapsburg monarchy, and that their obsession with the Balkans was foolish.

While a civil war would distract Austria, I can't see the other powers interfering unless it seems like the Empire is in danger of completely unravelling. Italy getting involved would end very badly, for them.

The civil war would be short, especially once the non-Magyar portions of Transleithenia rose up. Any push made into Tyrol or Trieste could (according to OTL comparisons) be minimized and once the Austrian army was available, Italy would be ready for a complete spanking.

Venezia and possibly Lombardy fall back into Austrian orbit, and Austria will be freer to make an arrangement with Russia on the sharing of the Balkans. Not only does this cut the chances of World War One happening, a de facto Three Emperors League could hold Austria together for decades. Possibly even to today.

It's pretty optimistic this scenario, from the the duration of the civil war to his effect, to the fact that nobody else will intervene (a serious risk) to A-H retaking Venezia and maybe even Lombardy and finally Austria holding together for decades (Hungary was just one of the many problems of the empire).

The advantage in this scenario and the problem in a general war of the A-H army was the fact that was geared more for internal suppression than to effectively fight others countries, without German help or serious and drastic reform in any modern war anything else than a short term conflict will not end well for A-H, even more after a civil war and even more without Conrad doing his reform (that at least had made things better)

 

[Ultima Ratio]

From Geoffrey Wawro A Mad Catastrophe

Seeing as the decline of the Habsburg army led pretty directly to the fall of the dynasty and the total collapse of Austria's great power status, would the Austrians have been better off if they'd just forcibly incorporated Transleithania into a unitary monarchy? Would this be a move they could coordinate with Germany to dissuade rival powers from taking advantage?

Sounds like a proper disaster in the making.

 

[dandan_noodles]

Sounds like a proper disaster in the making.

Can't be worse than OTL, seeing as it literally ended with the destruction of the monarchy and the partition of the empire, and potentially a lot better. A unitary monarchy would be able to recruit far more men into the army, afford more and superior artillery, enforce its language regulations better, and so on. All of these seriously hampered the Austrian war effort against the other great powers during the World War, and the Hungarians bore chief responsibility for it.

 

[Tibi088]

From the look of it, I'm surprised it was never authorized as I don't see a down side. But then I've long been of the opinion that the compromise fatally weakened the Hapsburg monarchy, and that their obsession with the Balkans was foolish.

While a civil war would distract Austria, I can't see the other powers interfering unless it seems like the Empire is in danger of completely unravelling. Italy getting involved would end very badly, for them.

The civil war would be short, especially once the non-Magyar portions of Transleithenia rose up. Any push made into Tyrol or Trieste could (according to OTL comparisons) be minimized and once the Austrian army was available, Italy would be ready for a complete spanking.

Venezia and possibly Lombardy fall back into Austrian orbit, and Austria will be freer to make an arrangement with Russia on the sharing of the Balkans. Not only does this cut the chances of World War One happening, a de facto Three Emperors League could hold Austria together for decades. Possibly even to today.

The down side: So lets say that you manage to force the whole issue and actually after an election delegates from the hungarian territories will be sent to Vienna. Do you think they will stabilize the already unworkable Austrian pailament? The slovak delegates will likely ally with the czech, the hungarians will be against anything the government wants. The serbs are an interesting question seeing Austro-Serbian relations. The croats might be loyal. The only surely loyal are the germans who were about 10 percent of the population of Hungary.
Conclusion: the mess would be bigger - not smaller and governing that in a pairlaimentary way would be completly impossible. The Austrian Reichtag was already a huge mess in the prewar years OTL. This would be worse.

Also hungarians were about a half of the populace of Hungary. They had the money and the aristocracy - the habsburgs had a tendency not liking to work with people outside of that circle. The other half is a big number of various national minorities mostly without money and any significant elit. Two of these - the serbians and romanians have states across the border. The serbian state is outright hostile to Austria and Romania though officially a friend is not trusted either and with good reason.

Your choice is to either base your power in Hungary on the hungarians who are generally loyal though not as loyal as you want and certainly not obedient enough or on the national minorities a lot of whom wont support you in long term even if you chose them over the hungarians. I will admit that the hungarians are not a good choice but I think that they were the lesser of 2 evils at the time.

Also you are condemning Hungary for refusing to better finance the KuK. A KuK that was making the U plan and would have carried it out. Maybe if the joint army would not have been as ready to destroy the hungarian state and make plans openly for that than the Hungarian State would have been more willing to finance said army... Just a thought.

 

[Rion_marcus]

I never understand this mentality, what do you think: Why did Franz Joseph make the Ausgleich if the army could simply march in and occupy Hungary? If there was nothing the Hungarians could do to sabotage the empire, then why were the Emperor forced to cooperate? There is this opinion, that if you crush the hungarians the empire will magically beginn to work. Problem is that happend 1848 and then the Ausgleich was made 20 years later.

What is the difference bethween 1867 and 1900?
Less nationalism? No.
Less liberalism? No.
More competent and popular Austrian elit? No.

So what problems does this solve?

Edit: A couple of errors was solved and the text cleared.

 

[Ultima Ratio]

Can't be worse than OTL, seeing as it literally ended with the destruction of the monarchy

It would end the same way IMHO, with the exception that Germany would likely annex Cisleithania once the AH falls apart. If the Dual Monarchy descends into a civil war, Italy, Serbia and Romania will be upon them in no time, and the Germans would not want to get into that mess, when they can just fan German nationalism post-breakup and achieve a Greater Germany. Although that might trigger a Franco-Russian response and you have a very interesting alt-WW1 scenario. So if anything, this has the building blocks of an interesting TL

 

[Halagaz]

Germany definitely wouldn't support it. From Germany's PoV the Austro-Hungarian Dualist arrangement was the best way to run a country, and they'd see Vienna's attempt to violently overthrow this arrangement as complete foolishness - and as an insulting disregard for Berlin's own opinion.

Of course, that's not the only problem. The civil war will not be easy. Several different minorities will see the war as an opportunity to go their own way. Neighboring states might not resist the temptation to intervene. Hell, even Germany was seriously considering the possibility that A-H is toast and might need to be partitioned - and if a straight-up civil war doesn't convince them of that, then nothing will.

And there's one more problem - even if Austria successfully occupies Hungary...just what are the results? Better governance? Nope. More internal stability? Surely not.

 

[marathag]

.just what are the results? Better governance? Nope. More internal stability? Surely not.

But since relations between the two halves were almost totally disfunctional, that would be the change, plus the boost from the other nationalities, and their Magyarization program is stopped dead

Pink was Austrian, Yellow Hungarian and green Joint control

So F-J peels off the other nationalities to their own new kingdoms or Principalities, makes two Hungarys, separated by a partially restored Principality of Transylvania, but unconnected

OTL the Hungarian half of the empire had roughly 6% of the population being allowed to vote, a sore spot. That's an easy way for F-J to get a popularity boost, increase the franchise

I don't recall many 'Hungary-Screw' TLs, this might be a good base for this, F-J wanting to undo 1868

 

[Ultima Ratio]

Hungarys, separated by a partially restored Principality of Transylvania, but unconnected

This was the case before the Ausgleich and it led to 1848. Expect this solution to make the empire ungovernable, and Hungarians to restart their passive resistance campaign from before. I also have no idea why you expect them to be a military pushover, such an invasion is a recipe for a protracted civil war and ethnic free-for-all. Fact is, there is no simple solution for the AH problems post-1900, although I do not think that AH dissolution is guaranteed as a lot of people seem to think. For a better AH, you will need a more cooperative Hungarian elite, and I have often pondered how that would be achievable. One of my ideas was a different 1848 where the Hungarians actually take Vienna and join forces with the Austrian revolutionaries, leading to the collapse of the Metternich government and a different and earlier Ausgleich and a more revolutionary-minded Austria-Hungary where the old elites are stripped of their power. But this is a different topic.

 

[marathag]

I also have no idea why you expect them to be a military pushover

Not equipped as well as even the k.u.k. units, let alone Landwehr units in Arms or Artillery, plus the Honved at the time had only three Battalions per Regiment, while the k.u.k. had four, and Austrians a mix or 3 and 4. Outnumbered.

Biggest thing is that von Beck would be running the show, not Conrad in 1903. He had been doing Prussian style wargames and Divisional sized maneuvers, something typically not done with the Honved usits

For a better AH, you will need a more cooperative Hungarian elite, and I have often pondered how that would be achievable.

ASBs, almost.

 

[LouisTheGreyFox]

I misread the thread as "Australian invasion of Hungary". That be a interesting ASB story.

 

[dandan_noodles]

I misread the thread as "Australian invasion of Hungary". That be a interesting ASB story.