Challenge...Circassian Golan Heights
- Thread starter mishery
- Start date
Someone absorbs them during the Israeli war of independence. Maybe they try to establish themeselves as a neutral buffer zone. But true independence is hard to maintain. The Golan is Syria's main route to attacking Israel, and is also prime defensive ground for Israel.
Valdemar II
Banned
You are joking right? It is not like Isreal has been the best neighbour to Libanon.
Abdul Hadi Pasha
Banned
The Circassians were Muslim refugees dfrom Russian expansion in the Caucasus, expelled in numbers of around 2 million. Many were settled in the Balkans and then expelled again after the Russo-Ottoman War of 1877-78. Palestine, but Jordan in particular, has a large amount of Circassian blood, as the Ottomans settled them there as part of an effort to develop the place. As an example, Amman, the capital of Jordan, began as a Circassian colony.
The Golan Heights is not as bizarre an idea as it sounds, as there are large numbers of Circasians in the general idea, although it's still a bit weird.
The Golan Heights is not as bizarre an idea as it sounds, as there are large numbers of Circasians in the general idea, although it's still a bit weird.
I was thinking about this, although I would have used the words "annexed" for both Syria and Israel.
The Circassians have a status similar to the Druze in Israel?
The Circassians accept Israeli control as a guarantee of their (semi-)independence?
Would this make peace between Syria and Israel a bit easier? A treaty that guarantees an independent, perhaps militarily weak Circassian Golan Heights?
I guess there is the issue of water rights.
What would be considered suitable borders for such a state if it was set up, perhaps in the 1920s?
Also, what would be a reasonable population figure if the Circassians decided, or a majority of them did, to form a state of their own in the Golan?
Posit that a good portion of them did settle on the Golan during the late 1800s. If the Circassians threw in with the Allies in WWI, apologies to Abdul, and did something which earned great favor from both the British and the French, it might lead to recognition as a useful ally with a territory of their own.
Then have London and Paris squabbling over the proper border but, with neither willing to compromise, both finally agree to a vague Anglo-French sponsorship of New Circassia.
The new autonomous state enjoys economic growth and a small professional military in the post-war period but it is WWII where things move. Circassia commits to the Allies, perhaps obtains minor border improvements at Vichy Syria's expense after helping the British seize Syria-Lebanon, and is able to acquire some heavy weapons, aircraft and combat experience with the Circassian division serving in the Western Desert and in Italy. Circassia also expands its economy, particularly becoming partially self-sufficient in arms, and an exporter of arms after WWII.
By 1948 Circassia is too tough a nut to crack. Alternatively, Circassia is seen as too dangerous by Syria and Jordan(both weaker in this TL) to provoke while fighting the nascent state of Israel, while Israel is just thrilled not to be fighting on one border.
By the 1960s Circassia has established a tough military and is generally recognized as a neutral in the region, perhaps serving as a financial and diplomatic center...
Also, what would be a reasonable population figure if the Circassians decided, or a majority of them did, to form a state of their own in the Golan?
Posit that a good portion of them did settle on the Golan during the late 1800s. If the Circassians threw in with the Allies in WWI, apologies to Abdul, and did something which earned great favor from both the British and the French, it might lead to recognition as a useful ally with a territory of their own.
Then have London and Paris squabbling over the proper border but, with neither willing to compromise, both finally agree to a vague Anglo-French sponsorship of New Circassia.
The new autonomous state enjoys economic growth and a small professional military in the post-war period but it is WWII where things move. Circassia commits to the Allies, perhaps obtains minor border improvements at Vichy Syria's expense after helping the British seize Syria-Lebanon, and is able to acquire some heavy weapons, aircraft and combat experience with the Circassian division serving in the Western Desert and in Italy. Circassia also expands its economy, particularly becoming partially self-sufficient in arms, and an exporter of arms after WWII.
By 1948 Circassia is too tough a nut to crack. Alternatively, Circassia is seen as too dangerous by Syria and Jordan(both weaker in this TL) to provoke while fighting the nascent state of Israel, while Israel is just thrilled not to be fighting on one border.
I'm assuming Circassia stays out and Syria considers an expanded Circassia getting 'ideas' to be the last thing Damascus wants.
By the 1960s Circassia has established a tough military and is generally recognized as a neutral in the region, perhaps serving as a financial and diplomatic center...
Abdul Hadi Pasha
Banned
The Circassians were generally extremely devoted Ottomanists, and after that Turkish nationalist. The chances of them siding with the Entente are pretty much nil.
Ahdul, alas, a victorious Ottoman Empire isn't giving away provinces to anyone so eiither the Circassians are on the Allied side or this dream is dead.
ninebucks
Banned
If you're refering to last summer's 'war', bare in mind that the reason why all journalists reported it from outside the same couple of destroyed buildings was because that was basically the entire extent of the damage Israel did to Lebanon.
Israel's campaign was as precise and targetted as possible, to the deficit of acheiving the goal of disempowering Hizbollah, which is why the emotional victory was ultimately their's.
Anyway, back to the original topic. Circassia is never going to enjoy true independence, the Golan Heights are just too important strategically for either Israel or Syria to let it stray too far. If it submits to the puppetry of Israel, it will probably enjoy quite a lot of internal independence. If it allies with Syria, it could perhaps see its sovereignty under threat, especially if an expansionist Arab Unionist regime takes power as in OTL.
Another possibility is alligning with the Turkish Republic, if the Circassians have a tradition of Turkish Nationalism, its even possible that the territory could enter into direct political union with Ankara! This could actually be quite beneficial - Turkey, unlike Israel or Syria, doesn't need Golan's water, and could thus arrange an export system that is fair to everyone concerned. And this situation would be a lot more stable than independence, because the Turkish would be able to make the military investment to hold the Heights, and possess the necessary muscle to stop Israel or Syria trying any kind of annexation.
Valdemar II
Banned
No I am referering to 40 years of making life a living hell for Lebanon with a lot of help from Syria and Iran.
Leo Caesius
Banned
That's right, Israel hardly damaged a single spot in Lebanon.
No, wait, I'm thinking of Fiji, not Lebanon. They bombed the fuck out of Lebanon.
Leo, Israel hardly bombed a single spot in Fiji or Fiji hardly laid a glove on Lebanon? Me is confuz-zed.
Leo Caesius
Banned
The main problem I have with a Circassian Golan is that it just isn't viable as a state, and even if it was established in the early 30s, it would probably be swallowed up into Greater Syria within a matter of a few years, like the Druze state and the Alawite state.
Leo is correct. So you either establish a larger Circassian state or it isn't viable. Now, how do we convince the victorious Ottomans to mutilate their own empire, or the British and French to accept a major reduction in their Middle East spoils?