Choosing the Autumn Option: A timeline from 1978

pipisme · Jul 25, 2023

Opinion polls which gave the Conservatives a four percent lead over Labour in August 1978, showed a Labour lead of 7 percent in October. On 9 October, the Prime Minister, James Callaghan, issued a statement to the media that parliament would be dissolved, and a general election held on Thursday 9 November 1978.
The number of seats in the House of Commons for each party after the election were as follows (October 1974 general election):
Labour: 345 (319)
Conservative: 266 (277)
Liberal: 6 (13)
SNP: 4 (11)
Plaid Cymru: 2 (3)
Others (Northern Ireland parties: 12 (12)
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Total: 635 (635)
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The Labour majority over all parties was 55.

TimTurner · Jul 25, 2023

Nice.

pipisme · Jul 25, 2023

Thank you.

The percentage votes for each party in the general election were as follows:
Labour: 45.5 (39.2)
Conservative: 40.7 (35.8)
Liberal: 8.4 (18.3)
SNP: 1.6 (2.9)
Plaid Cymru: 0.4 (0.6)
Others: 3.4 (3.2)
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Total: 100.0 (100.0)
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The national swing from Conservative to Labour was 0.7%, though in some constituencies there was a swing from Labour to Conservative. The turnout was 74.6% (72.8%).

Labour gained the following seats from Conservative compared with the October 1974 general election: Aberdeen South, Ayr, Ayrshire North and Bute, Bosworth, Brentford and Isleworth, Cambridge, Cardiff North, Croydon North West, Edinburgh Pentlands, Edinburgh South, Glasgow Cathcart, Glasgow Hillhead, Hampstead, High Peak, Hornsey, Lancaster, Manchester Withington, Newcastle-upon-Tyne North, Northampton South, Plymouth Drake, Stretford, Wallasey. Total = 22. Labour gains from Liberal were Colne Valley, Invernessshire, Rochdale. They took Carmarthen from Plaid Cymru, and Dunbartonshire East, Dundee East, Clackmannan and East Stirlingshire from SNP. Among the new Labour MPs were Gordon Brown (Edinburgh South) and Ken Livingstone (Hampstead).

Compared with October 1974 Conservative gains from Labour were Gravesend, Ilford North, Northampton North. In Ilford North they kept a by-election gain from earlier in 1978. Conservatives gained the following seats from Liberal: Cornwall North, Devon North, Isle of Wight, Montgomeryshire. From SNP they took Argyllshire, Banffshire, Galloway, Perth and East Perthshire. Among the Conservative MPs who lost their seats were Teddy Taylor, shadow Secretary of State for Scotland (Glasgow Cathcart), and Malcolm Rifkind ( Edinburgh Pentlands).

The Liberals lost more than half their seats and more than half their vote. Liberal MPs defeated were Emlyn Hooson, Russell Johnston, John Pardoe, Stephen Ross, Cyril Smith, Jeremy Thorpe, Richard Wainwright.

Navigator · Jul 25, 2023

Labour were never more than 1% ahead that autumn and wouldn't have gone, even in March, without the no-confidence vote. Callahan wanted to hang on to the bitter end as he knew just how unpopular the government was. Those of us on the doorstep did too.

pipisme · Jul 29, 2023

Navigator said:
Labour were never more than 1% ahead that autumn and wouldn't have gone, even in March, without the no-confidence vote. Callahan wanted to hang on to the bitter end as he knew just how unpopular the government was. Those of us on the doorstep did too.

In his autobiography The Time of My Life , Denis Healey wrote that opinion polls showed a Conservative lead of six per cent in August 1978, and a Labour lead of 7 per cent in October.

Though the Tories lost seats in the general election, there was little, if any, demand for Margaret Thatcher to resign as party leader. She had been leader only since February 1975, and the Conservative vote had increased.

The Liberals blamed the Lib-Lab pact and the Jeremy Thorpe/Norman Scott affair, for their heavy defeat. But David Steel was safe as party leader. The other five Liberal MPs were Alan Beith, Clement Freud, Jo Grimond, Geraint Howells and David Penhaligon. None of whom wanted to challenge Steel for the leadership.

The Queen's Speech on 21 November 1978 was much like that on 1 November 1978 in OTL. (1)

(1) See http://api.parliament.uk/historic-hansard/commons/1978nov01/queens-speech/index.html. That link doesn't work. So if you search queen's speech 1978 you get to that page.

pipisme · Aug 9, 2023

The Winter of Discontent of 1978/79 was as in OTL. Also the results of the Scottish and Welsh devolution referendums on 1 March 1979. In Scotland there was a narrow majority for devolution, but because less than forty per cent of the Scottish electorate voted for it, the Scotland Act 1978 did not come into effect. Welsh devolution was rejected by a large majority.

Sir Arthur Irvine (Liverpool Edge Hill - Labour) was deselected by his constituency party in 1977. He did not stand for re-election in the November 1978 general election, so there was no by-election in the constituency. (1)

Airey Neave was not murdered by a bomb in his car by the Irish National Liberation Army, nor did they attempt to kill him. In OTL the Labour government had been defeated on a vote of no confidence and a general election, was only about five weeks away. It was thought that the Conservative Party would probably win the election, and Neave would become Northern Ireland Secretary. All that did not apply in this TL.

The Prime Minister, James Callaghan, made the following changes to his cabinet on 26 April 1979:
Denis Healey from Chancellor of the Exchequer to Foreign Secretary,
David Owen from Foreign Secretary to Environment Secretary,
Peter Shore from Environment Secretary to Chancellor of the Exchequer,
Fred Mulley resigned as Defence Secretary,
Bill Rodgers from Transport Secretary to Defence Secretary,
Albert Booth from Employment Secretary to Transport Secretar,y
Shirley Williams from Education and Science Secretary to Employment Secretary,
Neil Kinnock appointed Education and Science Secretary,
Harold Lever resigned as Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster. Callaghan offered the post to Tony Benn but he refused. So he resigned as Energy Secretary and left the government.
Eric Varley from Industry Secretary to Energy Secretary,
John Silkin from Minister of Agriculture, Fisheries and Food to Industry Secretary,
Reginald Freeson promoted to the cabinet from Minister for Housing and Construction to Minister of Agriculture, Fisheries and Food,
Charles Morris promoted from Minister of State for the Civil Service to the cabinet as Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster.

(1) In OTL the by-election on 29 March 1979 was won by David Alton for the Liberal Party.

nezza · Aug 9, 2023

pipisme said:
The Winter of Discontent of 1978/79 was as in OTL. Also the results of the Scottish and Welsh devolution referendums on 1 March 1979. In Scotland there was a narrow majority for devolution, but because less than forty per cent of the Scottish electorate voted for it, the Scotland Act 1978 did not come into effect. Welsh devolution was rejected by a large majority.

Sir Arthur Irvine (Liverpool Edge Hill - Labour) was deselected by his constituency party in 1977. He did not stand for re-election in the November 1978 general election, so there was no by-election in the constituency. (1)

Airey Neave was not murdered by a bomb in his car by the Irish National Liberation Army, nor did they attempt to kill him. In OTL the Labour government had been defeated on a vote of no confidence and a general election, was only about five weeks away. It was thought that the Conservative Party would probably win the election, and Neave would become Northern Ireland Secretary. All that did not apply in this TL.

The Prime Minister, James Callaghan, made the following changes to his cabinet on 26 April 1979:
Denis Healey from Chancellor of the Exchequer to Foreign Secretary,
David Owen from Foreign Secretary to Environment Secretary,
Peter Shore from Environment Secretary to Chancellor of the Exchequer,
Fred Mulley resigned as Defence Secretary,
Bill Rodgers from Transport Secretary to Defence Secretary,
Albert Booth from Employment Secretary to Transport Secretar,y
Shirley Williams from Education and Science Secretary to Employment Secretary,
Neil Kinnock appointed Education and Science Secretary,
Harold Lever resigned as Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster. Callaghan offered the post to Tony Benn but he refused. So he resigned as Energy Secretary and left the government.
Eric Varley from Industry Secretary to Energy Secretary,
John Silkin from Minister of Agriculture, Fisheries and Food to Industry Secretary,
Reginald Freeson promoted to the cabinet from Minister for Housing and Construction to Minister of Agriculture, Fisheries and Food,
Charles Morris promoted from Minister of State for the Civil Service to the cabinet as Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster.

(1) In OTL the by-election on 29 March 1979 was won by David Alton for the Liberal Party.

Hmm interesting choice of shore as Chancellor. From what I understand he was a left winger and would have been a spendthrift at a time when the economy was in dire straits. Benn said if Labour won the election he wouldn't serve.

pipisme · Aug 10, 2023

nezza said:
Hmm interesting choice of shore as Chancellor. From what I understand he was a left winger and would have been a spendthrift at a time when the economy was in dire straits. Benn said if Labour won the election he wouldn't serve.

I didn't know that about Tony Benn. The Wikipedia entry for Peter Shore says that his 'inclination to support an autarkic economy ruled him out of consideration as a new Chancellor of the Exchequer' when Callaghan became Prime Minister in April 1976. (1) So he stayed as Environment Secretary. Callaghan moved Eric Varley from Industry Secretary to Chancellor of the Exchequer, and David Owen from Foreign Secretary to Energy Secretary. He was shadow Energy Secretary in Callaghan's shadow cabinet in OTL.

(1) See http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peter_Shore.

nezza · Aug 10, 2023

pipisme said:
I didn't know that about Tony Benn. The Wikipedia entry for Peter Shore says that his 'inclination to support an autarkic economy ruled him out of consideration as a new Chancellor of the Exchequer' when Callaghan became Prime Minister in April 1976. (1) So he stayed as Environment Secretary. Callaghan moved Eric Varley from Industry Secretary to Chancellor of the Exchequer, and David Owen from Foreign Secretary to Energy Secretary. He was shadow Energy Secretary in Callaghan's shadow cabinet in OTL.

(1) See http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peter_Shore.

It reads to me as the second cabinet is more weighted on the right of Labour.

pipisme · Aug 20, 2023

The Labour Party conference held from 1 to 5 October 1979 voted in favour of mandatory re-selection of Labour MPs by constituency Labour parties, and for giving the National Executive of the party the final decision on its general election manifesto. However it rejected a proposal to establish an electoral college to choose the party leader. This was as in OTL. (1) But the National Executive did not set up a Committee of Enquiry to recommend constitutional changes to the next party conference in 1980.

It was generally expected that James Callaghan would retire as Labour Party leader and Prime Minister before the next general election. On 15 October 1980 he announced his intention to retire when Labour MPs had elected a new leader.

The candidates for leader were Michael Foot, Lord President of the Council and leader of the House of Commons; Denis Healey, Foreign and Commonwealth Secretary; Peter Shore, Environment Secretary: John Silkin, Industry Secretary.

The first ballot of Labour was held on 4 November 1980. The number of votes for each candidate were as follows:
Healey: 152
Foot: 104
Silkin: 46
Shore: 39.

Silkin and Shore dropped out, so the second round was between Foot and Healey. It was thought that which of the two men won, the margin of victory would be in single figures. The second ballot took place on 10 November. Healey received 174 votes and Foot 170 votes. So Denis Healey was elected leader of the Labour Party and so became Prime Minister. Immediately the result was announced, Foot congratulated Healey on his victory, and said that he would be happy to serve in his cabinet.

(1) See The Time of My Life by Denis Healey, London: Michael Joseph, 1989.

pipisme · Aug 26, 2023

The majority of four for Denis Healey in the Labour leadership election was the smallest for a Labour leader. It was one smaller than Ramsay MacDonald's over John Clynes in November 1922. It was widely recognised that he would need to balance the left and right wings of the party in his government appointments.

In the evening of 10 November, he made the following changes to his cabinet:
Michael Foot from Lord President of the Council and leader of the House to Commons to Chancellor of the Exchequer,
Eric Varley from Chancellor of the Exchequer to Foreign and Commonwealth Secretary,
Merlyn Rees from Home Secretary to Lord President and leader of the Commons,
Roy Hattersley from Prices and Consumer Protection Secretary to Employment Secretary,
Margaret Beckett promoted from Under-Secretary of State for Education and Science to Prices and Consumer Protection Secretary.
Roy Mason, the Northern Ireland Secretary, left the government. John Smith from Trade Secretary and President of the Board of Trade to Northern Ireland Secretary,
David Owen from Energy Secretary to Trade Secretary and President of the Board,
Michael Meacher promoted from Under-Secretary of State Department of Trade to Energy Secretary.

pipisme · Aug 26, 2023

Here is the full cabinet:
Prime Minister: Denis Healey
Lord Chancellor: Lord Elwyn-Jones
Lord President of the Council and leader of the House of Commons: Merlyn Rees
Lord Privy Seal and leader of the House of Lords: Lord Peart
Chancellor of the Exchequer: Michael Foot
Foreign and Commonwealth Secretary: Eric Varley
Minister of Agriculture, Fisheries and Food: Reginald Freeson
Defence Secretary: Bill Rodgers
Education and Science Secretary: Neil Kinnock
Employment Secretary: Roy Hattersley
Energy Secretary: Michael Meacher
Environment Secretary: Peter Shore
Industry Secretary: John Silkin
Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster: Charles Morris
Northern Ireland Secretary: John Smith
Prices and Consumer Protection Secretary: Margaret Beckett
Scotland Secretary: Bruce Millan
Social Services Secretary: David Ennals
Trade Secretary and President of the Board of Trade: David Owen
Transport Secretary: Albert Booth
Chief Secretary Treasury: Robert Sheldon
Wales Secretary: John Morris.

Selected ministers outside the cabinet:
Attorney- General: Sir John Morris
Solicitor-General: Sir Peter Archer
Minister of Overseas Development: Judith Hart
Minister for Social Security: Stanley Orme
Paymaster-General: Dickson Mabon
Financial Secretary Treasury: Denzil Davies
Minister of State Treasury: Audrey Wise
Parliamentary Secretary Treasury (Government Chief Whip): Michael Cocks
Minister of State Foreign Office: Frank Judd
Minister of State Home Office: Shirley Summerskill
Under Secretary of State Department of Education and Science: Ann Taylor
Minister of State Health and Social Security: Roland Moyle
Under Secretary of State Department of Trade: Jeff Rooker.

Shirley Williams was Minister of State Home Office from October 1969 to June 1970.

pipisme · Aug 29, 2023

Tom Litterick, the Labour MP for Birmingham Selly Oak died 6 January 1981. The subsequent by-election was held on 5 March 1981. It was a Conservative gain from Labour by a majority of 13.3%. The previous Labour majority was 1.7%. The percentage votes for each party were as follows (1978 general election):
Conservative: 51.7 (45.5)
Labour: 38.4 (47.2)
Liberal: 9.9 (7.3).

The election for the Greater London Council (GLC) took place on 7 May 1981. The number of seats won by each party were (May 1977 election):
Conservative: 50 (64)
Labour: 42 (28).
The Conservatives kept control of the GLC, and Sir Horace Cutler continued in office as leader of the council. In the other local elections in England and Wales on the same day, Labour and Liberals gained seats and councils from Conservative and No Overall Control.