Consequences of a French victory at Pavia?

[Vinization]

There are plenty on discussions about the French winning the Battle of Pavia, but I don't remember seeing any that looked at the things that could happen outside of Italy as a result.

So, what could Francis I get in a peace treaty if he won the battle and captured Charles V? Milan is a given, of course, but could France demand more territories, particularly in the Netherlands and the Franche-Comté? Also, the pope probably wouldn't become a Habsburg prisoner ITTL, which may allow Henry VIII to annul his marriage with Catherine of Aragon without having to break with the Catholic Church to do so. Who could he marry, a French princess perhaps? Maybe a Portuguese one if there were any available?

 

[Vinization]

Alternatively, with the Italian front (mostly) wrapped up and Milan back under French control, could Francis focus his attention on the English, who raided northern France repeatedly? If so, could he take Calais?

 

[pandizzy]

Also, the pope probably wouldn't become a Habsburg prisoner ITTL, which may allow Henry VIII to annul his marriage with Catherine of Aragon without having to break with the Catholic Church to do so. Who could he marry, a French princess perhaps? Maybe a Portuguese one if there were any available?

If Henry got his annulment, he would marry Anne Boleyn

 

[HortenseMancini]

Henry viii was allied with Charles at this point so yeah the English are pretty well going to flip if Francis wins and, as you said, can refocus their attention to the north.

 

[HortenseMancini]

If Henry got his annulment, he would marry Anne Boleyn

I wouldn’t be so sure...Henry doesn’t seem to have been set on Anne until 1526 at the earliest. He may very well wind up remarried to his old fiancée Eleanor of Austria, who is 27.

 

[HortenseMancini]

Alternatively, with the Italian front (mostly) wrapped up and Milan back under French control, could Francis focus his attention on the English, who raided northern France repeatedly? If so, could he take Calais?

Admittedly I have no idea if he could take Calais. But it’s an interesting prospect and would likely be a casus belli for the English in the future.

 

[HortenseMancini]

Another consideration: Francis i’s eldest son, also named Francis, was kept as a ‘prisoner’ in Madrid for many years after pavia. Supposedly this affected the prince’s health - if he is not kept prisoner, he may very well live to adulthood and become the next king of France instead of his brother Henri.

 

[pandizzy]

I wouldn’t be so sure...Henry doesn’t seem to have been set on Anne until 1526 at the earliest. He may very well wind up remarried to his old fiancée Eleanor of Austria, who is 27.

If the emperor is imprisoned as @Vinization suggests, then I think of foreign matches, a french one is more likely tbh

 

[Vinization]

Another consideration: Francis i’s eldest son, also named Francis, was kept as a ‘prisoner’ in Madrid for many years after pavia. Supposedly this affected the prince’s health - if he is not kept prisoner, he may very well live to adulthood and become the next king of France instead of his brother Henri.

Yeah.

How could the Protestant Reformation be affected, since the loss of Lombardy and perhaps more territories would be a nasty blow to the Habsburgs, especially since the Spanish Road would be cut?

 

[Vinization]

If the emperor is imprisoned as @Vinization suggests, then I think of foreign matches, a french one is more likely tbh

Looking into the matter further I don't think Charles was actually present at Pavia, if so then capturing him is out of the window.

 

[RedKing]

Another consideration: Francis i’s eldest son, also named Francis, was kept as a ‘prisoner’ in Madrid for many years after pavia. Supposedly this affected the prince’s health - if he is not kept prisoner, he may very well live to adulthood and become the next king of France instead of his brother Henri.

Maybe Francis II could marry Mary Tudor the Younger if England decides to ally with France?

 

[Deleted member 147978]

Another consideration: Francis i’s eldest son, also named Francis, was kept as a ‘prisoner’ in Madrid for many years after pavia. Supposedly this affected the prince’s health - if he is not kept prisoner, he may very well live to adulthood and become the next king of France instead of his brother Henri.

Would Henri become Duc d'Orleans and Duke of Milan if Dauphin Francis become King instead?

 

[HortenseMancini]

Would Henri become Duc d'Orleans and Duke of Milan if Dauphin Francis become King instead?

Quite possibly...and I wouldn’t rule out him making a play for Duke of urbino too.

 

[LadyPseudonym]

Maybe Francis II could marry Mary Tudor the Younger if England decides to ally with France?

Francis Jr. was betrothed to Maria of Viseu IIRC, so that could be a possible match too.

 

[isabella]

Charles V was definitely not a Pavia (and neither his brother Ferdinand was there). The higher ranking prisoner who Francis can do there is a French Prince of the Blood, Charles of Bourbon

 

[Kellan Sullivan]

Francis Jr. was betrothed to Maria of Viseu IIRC, so that could be a possible match too.

Kristina of Denmark would be a nice touch. She's in the Netherlands, by Karl V marrying her to the dauphin, he can get France to drop their support for Frederik I (not the same as Christian II being restored, but pre-Pavia France and Denmark were getting pretty chummy IIRC).

Maria isn't in Karl's custody, which makes her a hard sell.

Quite possibly...and I wouldn’t rule out him making a play for Duke of urbino too.

Only if he weds Caterina de Medici, @Jan Olbracht can correct me, but this was around the time when Janos Zapolya was treating with François with the intention of naming either OTL Henri II or the duc d'Angoulême his heir in Hungary. In which case, Henri II might be wed to Isabella Jagiellon instead.

 

[Jan Olbracht]

Only if he weds Caterina de Medici, @Jan Olbracht can correct me, but this was around the time when Janos Zapolya was treating with François with the intention of naming either OTL Henri II or the duc d'Angoulême his heir in Hungary. In which case, Henri II might be wed to Isabella Jagiellon instead.

IIRC it happened around 1528-9

 

[isabella]

Kristina of Denmark would be a nice touch. She's in the Netherlands, by Karl V marrying her to the dauphin, he can get France to drop their support for Frederik I (not the same as Christian II being restored, but pre-Pavia France and Denmark were getting pretty chummy IIRC).

Maria isn't in Karl's custody, which makes her a hard sell.

Maria was the one proposed for Dauphin Francis in OTL and is not like John III would object to such match for his half-sister. Also right now Karl V has custody of Maria (as in OTL she was together with her mother until the latter‘s remarriage to Francis I)

Only if he weds Caterina de Medici, @Jan Olbracht can correct me, but this was around the time when Janos Zapolya was treating with François with the intention of naming either OTL Henri II or the duc d'Angoulême his heir in Hungary. In which case, Henri II might be wed to Isabella Jagiellon instead.

Maybe.

 

[Jan Olbracht]

In which case, Henri II might be wed to Isabella Jagiellon instead.

Zapolya would propably try to offer Isabella's half sister Hedwig, who was also his niece, not that he'll succeede, as Isabella is closer in age to Henri and has claims to Milan due to her Sforza blood.

 

[Fabius Maximus]

If Henry got his annulment, he would marry Anne Boleyn

Most probably, although I wouldn't be sure of him getting his annulment, even ITTL -- he based his case on the idea that the previous Pope hadn't had the authority to grant him and Catherine dispensation in the first place, which was always going to be a hard sell for obvious reasons.