Could Japan conquer China?

The question is whether CKS would have ever agreed to a negotiated peace that gave up Manchuria and Northeastern China and would hopefully give him time to crush the Communists once and for all. Then he could rearm and prepare for a full blown total war in a decade.
 
In a country of what some ~500 million? Ichi Go only succeeded in overextending the already stretched IJA forces committing them to hold more land in the face of Chinese residence.
My point was that there were Chinese collaborators

Japan could not continue to prosecute the war indefinitely continuing Western sanctions and the lack of hard currency necessary to purchase the material to continue the war would have led to the Japanese war effort eventually to a halt one way or another
Forget about that. Basically kills any chance of Japanese victory.

The population of Algeria was only around 20% that of metropolitan France. The Chinese population outnumbered the Japanese one by over 200 million.
Depends on how much Japan takes.it's not like smaller armies didn't beat bigger ones.
 
If there's even more serious action in Europe compared to OTL they just might throw China under the bus. Say a more scientifically minded and competent Germany beats the Soviet early and UK/USA have to pool all resources to that region, there's no embargo and Japan sells anything they can loot from China for hard cash to keep up the war.

There's plenty of anti colonial wars past WW2, i know that, but none of them were fought as cruelly as the Japanese/Chinese war was. Also most of those anti colonial wars had a foreign sponsor who delivered the weapons and military advisors, for example the Soviets. If China has no outside sponsor and no foreign war for Japan to fight outside of China it's pretty much screwed.

The Portuguese in Angola were pretty damn brutal. I haven't seen any evidence that brutality makes you more successful in subjugation wars.
 
Did Britain become an Indian province?

No, but Mongolia and Manchuria became Chinese provinces. Normandy became an English province. A lot of the peoples who conquered India were absorbed and assimilated. It's a danger that smaller cultures face when they try to conquer a larger culture. And based on current demographic trends in England the jury is still out on its future vis a vis India.
 
They had several opportunities to smash the KMT as an effective fighting force, and in fact established control over the richest portions of the country (only the Szechwan Basin and those places later absorbed by Ichi-Go were worth further expansion for Japanese purposes). But, it would have been impossible to completely extinguish all forms of resistance. Even in the so-called 'pacified territories' there were still active operations by partisans and guerrillas, which necessitated the retention of considerable forces for the purposes of protecting lines of supply.
 
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elkarlo

Banned
Maybe. If the Chinese in the 30s were still broken up and there were more totally independent war lords, then there could be a chance if Japan did it exactly right. That or make a large sustainable puppet govt.
Even with that, it's possible but not likely.

They'd also have to basically mothball the navy to be able to afford the conquest imho
 
If there's even more serious action in Europe compared to OTL they just might throw China under the bus. Say a more scientifically minded and competent Germany beats the Soviet early and UK/USA have to pool all resources to that region, there's no embargo and Japan sells anything they can loot from China for hard cash to keep up the war.

There's plenty of anti colonial wars past WW2, i know that, but none of them were fought as cruelly as the Japanese/Chinese war was. Also most of those anti colonial wars had a foreign sponsor who delivered the weapons and military advisors, for example the Soviets. If China has no outside sponsor and no foreign war for Japan to fight outside of China it's pretty much screwed.

Uh huh said more competent Germany almost certainly doesn't get involved into a world war but let's ignore that. The United States Navy does not need 24 fleet carriers for service in the Atlantic it does not need over a hundred modern submarines to strangle German trade, it does not need a massive train of dedicated fleet replenishment vessels to keep Britain supplied with material. The only thing that can be used for is crushing Japan and the US can crush Japan with one hand and 2 fingers tied behind its back. There is nothing Japan can sell to the Wallies that they can't get from their colonies or from the United States. As a matter of fact, it is far more likely in a scenario where the war in Europe is a more close run thing for the resources Japan needs fuel, rubber, rice, etc to be restricted due to the needs of the war effort.

China has foreign sponsors a number of them in fact. The Soviets, the Brits, the Americans, the French, and for a while even the Germans. Not to mention the fact that as a matter of fact, China is big very big with lots of people to scale that renders any comparison to one of the colonial wars a moot point. The 2nd Sino Japanese war was a conventional military conflict that also possessed massive insurgency. The actions of the IJA just make it more likely that there will be no surrender or negotiated peace.
 
I still don't get why Japan wanted to conquer China. They had very little natural resources or manufacturing base to take over. As a consumer market they were probably so-so as they were not a wealthy nation. When you step back and look at the reasons to go to war there just doesn't seem to be much sense in them going that direction. Particularly if you look at the cost/gain ratio; i just don't see the logic. From a land standpoint they already had Korea and Manchuria which had more natural resources then the rest of China. Japan could have settled those areas and after many generations made that land their own while displacing the native populations. Siam would have been a much better target then China and then of course the Dutch East Indies were resource rich.

Maybe one of you can explain why China...

Initially, Japan simply wanted to keep China divided and weak (especially once the KMT established themselves in Nanking), hence the establishment of Manchuria and Inner Mongolia as puppet states. Somewhere along the way, the 'Keep China Divided' strategy somehow morphed into a 'Conquer China' campaign.
 
Uh huh said more competent Germany almost certainly doesn't get involved into a world war but let's ignore that. The United States Navy does not need 24 fleet carriers for service in the Atlantic it does not need over a hundred modern submarines to strangle German trade, it does not need a massive train of dedicated fleet replenishment vessels to keep Britain supplied with material. The only thing that can be used for is crushing Japan and the US can crush Japan with one hand and 2 fingers tied behind its back. There is nothing Japan can sell to the Wallies that they can't get from their colonies or from the United States. As a matter of fact, it is far more likely in a scenario where the war in Europe is a more close run thing for the resources Japan needs fuel, rubber, rice, etc to be restricted due to the needs of the war effort.

China has foreign sponsors a number of them in fact. The Soviets, the Brits, the Americans, the French, and for a while even the Germans. Not to mention the fact that as a matter of fact, China is big very big with lots of people to scale that renders any comparison to one of the colonial wars a moot point. The 2nd Sino Japanese war was a conventional military conflict that also possessed massive insurgency. The actions of the IJA just make it more likely that there will be no surrender or negotiated peace.
The whole point of my post is the counterfactual thinking of what would happen if it did not have foreign sponsors for whatever reason, such as a German wank in Europe. The insurgency needs guns and ammo from somewhere or it will have to revert to using sharp pieces of metal to fight with, 30s China had precious little industry to supply itself with the means to defend against the Japanese. The only way a disarmed rebellion can succeed is if the colonial overlord gives in, maybe Japan would do that 50 years later after several rounds of moderation and reform, but sure not in the 40s. Now what constitutes a total victory is hard to define, you'd have roaming bands of resistence for the next few decades in the hinterlands for sure, smuggling weapons from the outside through the porous borders and paying for them with opium for example, but a low level insurgency is not a real threat to the power structure.
 
Japanese had same problem like Germans during operation Barbarossa
a imbalance in Fighting numbers, a German had to Kill 2 to 4 Soviets in order to survive
one Japanese Soldier had to kill 5 to 10 Chinese* who are determined to kill him

*=Based on assumption there were 500 million Chinese during Japanese occupation of China

The golden rules for invasion
1. check populations number
2. check military strengt
3. check the Economic output
IF those number in disadvantage for Invader nation, please cancel operation...

Michel's point goes to the whole of the Japanese mentality, and to a point that I made in another thread.

They ignored these three golden rules when they invaded China, and in 1941 they ignored them again when they took on the Americans, British, and the Dutch. They knew them, they even understood them, but unilaterally tossed them out because to heed them would have resulted in a loss of face so immense that their society couldn't handle it. Having spent some time in Japan and having interacted with them socially I can tell you that even today the Japanese, while being fine and upstanding people, will avoid embarrassment at any cost and have a very difficult time admitting that they are not the center of the universe. This social problem was even more acute in the 1930's, when only 80 years had passed since the "opening" of Japan by Matthew Perry! In the space of 80 years (literally one person's lifetime) the Japanese went from a closed, feudal society roughly equivalent to 14th Century Europe to a modern, industrialized western style society, an advancement of 600 years! They hadn't had time to completely adapt their morality and social structure. Fundamentally, they didn't understand the West or how to interact with it. This led them to make some titanic mis-judgements and poorly thought out assumptions about the West, and when fueled by a Bushido colored view of themselves as being descended from gods they embarked on not one but two highly ill-advised campaigns that lead to nothing but ruin and despair.

The Japanese had nothing but contempt for the Chinese and most other Asian peoples, looking down their noses at them and not understanding why everyone else placed them in such high regard. In fact they were jealous of them and this jealousy did not fit within the Bushido mindset. Racism blinded them to the cold hard facts and drove their decision making process.

The chances of the Japanese completely conquering China were very remote, and I say remote only because the Chinese were politically and socially fractured. Other than that the Chinese held all the aces (see the Golden Rules above). As for war with the west, the Japanese did a fine job of maneuvering themselves into the proverbial corner. They would never disengage from China for all the reasons that I stated above, and that disengagement was the only way the Western sanctions were going to be lifted. The sanctions were crippling their brand new industrialized economy and thus they had to engage in hostilities to seize resources they didn't have, or at least that is how they rationalized their way around the Golden Rules. The eminent Calbear said it best when he stated that "the Japanese were doomed from the moment the first bomb fell on Pearl Harbor".

I can not conceive of a situation in which the United States in particular would have just stood by and allowed a wholesale conquering or purging of China by Japan. Had they tried it the U.S. would have stepped in and as another poster stated you would have been back to a situation similar to the OTL, and in the OTL the Japanese lost...big.
 
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I know what the IJA did thank you very much.

Mass Rape yes, deplorable acts committed against the local population also yes, use of Chinese civilians as guinea pigs for Japanese biological experiments is another yes. Now please point out to me where the IJA was conducting a systematic organized effort to wipe out the Chinese people.

The Japanese routinely conducted systematic exterminations. During Operation Sanko (better knows as the "Three Alls" campaign), for instance, the population of the target region was reduced from 44 million to 25 million through a policy of mass-deportation, starvation, and outright murder [Roberts, "World War II: the Essential Reference Guide" p. 152]. In the 1990s, Japanese historian Mitsuyoshi Himeta put the actual body count at "more than 2.7 million." While Operation Sanko was going on in north China, another quarter-million were killed in Zhejiang and Jiangxi provinces as a reprisal for the Doolittle Raid, many of whom died from chemical attacks.

An example of the Japanese MO:

"Father Wendelin Dunker observed the result of a Japanese attack on the town of Ihwang:

“They shot any man, woman, child, cow, hog, or just about anything that moved, They raped any woman from the ages of 10 – 65, and before burning the town they thoroughly looted it.”

He continued, writing in his unpublished memoir, “None of the humans shot were buried either, but were left to lay on the ground to rot, along with the hogs and cows.”

The Japanese marched into the walled city of Nancheng at dawn on the morning of June 11, beginning a reign of terror so horrendous that missionaries would later dub it “the Rape of Nancheng.” Soldiers rounded up 800 women and herded them into a storehouse outside the east gate. “For one month the Japanese remained in Nancheng, roaming the rubble-filled streets in loin clothes much of the time, drunk a good part of the time and always on the lookout for women,” wrote the Reverend Frederick McGuire. “The women and children who did not escape from Nancheng will long remember the Japanese—the women and girls because they were raped time after time by Japan’s imperial troops and are now ravaged by venereal disease, the children because they mourn their fathers who were slain in cold blood for the sake of the ‘new order’ in East Asia.”

At the end of the occupation, Japanese forces systematically destroyed the city of 50,000 residents. Teams stripped Nancheng of all radios, while others looted the hospitals of drugs and surgical instruments. Engineers not only wrecked the electrical plant but pulled up the railroad lines, shipping the iron out. A special incendiary squad started its operation on July 7 in the city’s southern section. “This planned burning was carried on for three days,” one Chinese newspaper reported, “and the city of Nancheng became charred earth.”

Over the summer, the Japanese laid waste to some 20,000 square miles. They looted towns and villages, then stole honey and scattered beehives. Soldiers devoured, drove away, or simply slaughtered thousands of oxen, pigs, and other farm animals; some wrecked vital irrigation systems and set crops on fire. They destroyed bridges, roads, and airfields.“Like a swarm of locusts, they left behind nothing but destruction and chaos,” Dunker wrote."
Of course, both Sanko and the Zhejiang-Jiangxi expedition were hardly unique and had been preceded by several similar "annihilation campaigns" in the late 1930s/early 40s, all personally sanctioned by Hirohito. The biological warfare effort, moreover, also seemed to have no clear objective other than to inflict terror and kill large numbers of people - Peter Li puts the total from 748,000 to 2,000,000.

Therefore, while Japan never actually aimed to wipe out 'the Chinese race,' practically speaking their agenda was the destruction of China as a nation and the deportation or mass murder of huge segments of its people, similar to Nazi visions for Poland and Russia.
 

Deleted member 96212

I know what the IJA did thank you very much.

Mass Rape yes, deplorable acts committed against the local population also yes, use of Chinese civilians as guinea pigs for Japanese biological experiments is another yes. Now please point out to me where the IJA was conducting a systematic organized effort to wipe out the Chinese people.

I think those actions speak to their intent. Nanking, Unit 731, the three Alls policy - that seems like it was building up to something to me.
 
I think those actions speak to their intent. Nanking, Unit 731, the three Alls policy - that seems like it was building up to something to me.

The Red Army conducted mass rape, mass killings, and looting during the invasion of Germany in WWII was that building up to an effort by the USSR to conduct a genocidal campaign against Germans?
 

Deleted member 96212

The Red Army conducted mass rape, mass killings, and looting during the invasion of Germany in WWII was that building up to an effort by the USSR to conduct a genocidal campaign against Germans?

There's a lot wrong with this statement. First and foremost is that there was a campaign to ethnically cleanse German people from Eastern Europe following the war and there was a campaign to use POWs and civilians for forced labor, not even getting into the ultimately scrapped Morgenthau Plan that would've turned Germany into a pre-industrial state, so you can't exactly say that the Red Army's war crimes were isolated incidents*. Secondly, the whole damn reason the Red Army was killing, robbing, and raping tens of thousands (or more) German civilians and prisoners was because the German army did the exact same thing to Russia, but several orders of magnitude worse. Thirdly, there was no order by Stalin that officially sanctioned the murders and other crimes, unlike in Japan, where Hirohito was signing off on any and every program of wanton murder that the Imperial Army was dropping at his feet.

If it walks like a duck, quacks like a duck, and looks like a duck, I'm not going to call it a pigeon.

*>inb4 "but I said GENOCIDE"
 
There's a lot wrong with this statement. First and foremost is that there was a campaign to ethnically cleanse German people from Eastern Europe following the war and there was a campaign to use POWs and civilians for forced labor,

Oh yes the Wehrmacht had order for War of extermination and SS had specials units operate next to them for cleansing, but that was nothing compare to plans to exterminate 80% of local population one the Nazi would have won that operation Barbarossa.
But similar way how the Japanese broth there own Downfall, the Germans made same mistake with USSR under Stalin and Russian return the favor toward Germany!
And to top that Just as The Third Reich is over top in Problems with Soviet and British, the little annoying Austrian declare war on US of A, believing naively it would relieve the Japanese and they would attack soviet union

OH Boy was he so totally wrong, Uncle Sam look over his shoulder and say "one moment, i will be right there and beat you up too" and hell he dit, the US bombed The Third Reich and Japanese Empire back into stone age
and as the American force arrive the German and Japanese learn new meaning of "armed to the teeth"...

...Back to topic
if i understand the Japanese plans right, they never had plans to conquer all of China. But sieze control of part of this and install seven puppet states on Mainland China
together with other puppet states (former European and US colonies) it would have formed the Greater East Asia Co-Prosperity Sphere
 
No, but Mongolia and Manchuria became Chinese provinces. Normandy became an English province. A lot of the peoples who conquered India were absorbed and assimilated. It's a danger that smaller cultures face when they try to conquer a larger culture. And based on current demographic trends in England the jury is still out on its future vis a vis India.

In the examples you gave, the conquerors in question were less sophisticated or less progressed societies, and the conquered more sophisticated ones.

In contrast, in the 1930s, China was an impoverished, underdeveloped, illiterate society whose lifestyle had no appeal to an industrialized nation like Japan.
 
Depends on the economic cost as Japanese society at that time was willing to accept large casualties

They were wildly successfully in otl capturing large portions of China

In name only. The control that the Japanese can exert and maintain outside urban areas was actually limite. The IJA often relied on local collaborator to matajn local order and to extract tax.
 
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