Dean for America: A Different 2004 Election (And Beyond)

[JwEX]

WELCOME!

This TL, now (sadly) aborted, focused on the America that might have been had Howard dean secured the Iowa Caucuses, the Democratic nomination, and the presidency in 2004.

I managed to bring it up to the beginning of the 2012 primaries when school work got in the way and I lost interest in it.

Regardless of it's incomplete state, I hope you enjoy my first ever TL, and I hope you stick around to see my hopefully better work in the future!

 

[JwEX]

The Iowa Caucus

It was only weeks until the Iowa Caucus, and Howard Dean and Dick Gephardt were the frontrunners of the primary, followed by John Kerry and John Edwards. Dean's campaign faced a critical decision with how to deal with Gephardt: either run negative attack ads against Gephardt or run a positive campaign. The media atmosphere had been recently very negative as Saddam Hussein had narrowly evaded capture the month before. Because of this, Dean chose to run a positive campaign. As a result, more voters stayed loyal to his campaign and on January 19, 2004, Dean won the Iowa caucus by a 3.5% margin.

(Green is Dean, Light Blue Gephardt, Dark Blue Kerry)

Dean 31.2%, 16 delegates
Gephardt 27.7%, 15 delegates
Kerry 24.1%, 14 delegates
Others 17%


Dean and Gephardt, buoyed by their victories, began to focus heavily on the next primaries. For Dean the mission at hand was beating Kerry in New Hampshire, and for Gephardt, the objective was beating Edwards in South Carolina. The primary season had officially began, and Dean was off running.

 

[JwEX]

New Hampshire

There was no break for the candidates. On January 22, just three days after Iowa, Saint Anselm College in New Hampshire hosted a debate where Dean and Kerry fought it out. Gephardt was polling terribly in New Hampshire (it wasn't his territory) and declined the invitation to the debate, focusing on South Carolina instead. The debate lead to some interesting points. The most memorable is as follows:

DISTASO: Governor Dean, last December you were quoted as saying that you would not have hesitated to attack Iraq this year, quote, "had the United Nations given us permission and asked us to be part of a multilateral force." Given President Bush's reference to "no permission slips" the other night in the State of the Union, do you now regret using that word?

DEAN: I would not have used the word "permission," nor is that what I meant. You know, my words are not always precise, but my meaning is very, very clear. Iraq was not an imminent threat to the United States. I disagreed with Senator Lieberman, Senator Edwards and Senator Kerry. We had contained Iraq with-

KERRY: Excuse me, but if I may, Governor, Iraq may not have been a threat to us, but it certainly was a threat.

DEAN: A threat to who now?

KERRY: Iraq's government was a threat to the Iraqi people, for one.

DEAN: Yes, a threat to the Iraqi people. Not Americans.

KERRY: That's a humanitarian issue, Governor. We're a superpower, and we should help people in need around the globe.

DEAN: That's understandable, Senator, but this war has done nothing but exacerbate tensions within Iraq and hurt innocent Americans and Iraqi civilians.

KERRY: Many Americans on both side of the aisle wanted to go to war, Governor. You can't blame it exclusively on me, Senator Edwards, Senator Lieberman, or even President Bush.

DEAN: I'm not blaming the war on you. I'm just calling you out for basically subscribing to the same imperialist-esque ideologies that the President has endorsed.

KERRY: I believe that the military and those in charge of it are doing the right thing in Iraq, regardless.

CLARK: I second that.

DEAN: Are you two actually trying to defend the military-industrial complex to a room full of liberals?
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Dean's performance in the debate gave him an edge over Kerry and Dean won in New Hampshire on January 27 by yet another slim victory.

Dean 32.5%, 9 delegates
Kerry 30.8%, 7 delegates
Clark 19.1%, 5 delegates
Others 17.6%

It was now onto Mini-Tuesday, where Dean had to defend his frontrunner status in several states in which his performance in local polls was lackluster...

 

[dw93]

I've always been curious to see how Dean would do as President if elected in 2004, with that said I think if this general election 2004 is similar to OTL, Dean is going to have at least as tough of a time as Kerry did OTL and if Dean did pull it off, his victory would look like Kerry's Alt victory in "A Different Path" by Pericles. I personally think you need the Bush administration in 2004 TTL to go worse than it did OTL for Bush to be defeated outright or have a POD earlier than 2004.

 

[JwEX]

I've always been curious to see how Dean would do as President if elected in 2004, with that said I think if this general election 2004 is similar to OTL, Dean is going to have at least as tough of a time as Kerry did OTL and if Dean did pull it off, his victory would look like Kerry's Alt victory in "A Different Path" by Pericles. I personally think you need the Bush administration in 2004 TTL to go worse than it did OTL for Bush to be defeated outright or have a POD earlier than 2004.

That makes a lot of sense. I'll take a look at it. Thanks so much.

 

[JwEX]

Mini-Tuesday

February had arrived, and a slew of contests in Delaware, Oklahoma, Missouri, North Dakota, Arizona, New Mexico, and South Carolina were right around the corner. There were only a few states that Dean was polling well in: Arizona and New Mexico. In South Carolina, he was polling in sixth place. Dean felt that he could still keep up momentum by bypassing South Carolina and winning in Missouri, Arizona, and New Mexico. Winning in Missouri would force Gephardt out of the race.

Dean campaigning in Arizona

However, Missouri was Gephardt's home state, so Dean focused much of his attention on Arizona, where he supported Havasupai Native Americans in their lawsuit against the Arizona Board of Regents. He also lobbied with Navajo Indians, arguing for expanded sovereignty and rights. He heavily attacked Senator John McCain's support for a border fence and got the endorsement of the Arizona Democratic Party. However, in New Mexico, Wesley Clark received a similar endorsement and Mini-Tuesday looked like it might be a bad night for Howard Dean.

February 3 finally arrived, and that evening, so did the results. (too many numbers to write down, so I'll summarize)

In South Carolina, Gephardt suffered a major setback when Edwards won the state by a razor-thin margin. In Delaware, Dean won in an upset, taking more than half of that state's delegates. Pundits saw that Dean won in Delaware because Senator Lieberman served as a spoiler, splitting Kerry and Edwards voters. In North Dakota, Wesley Clark was disappointed as Gephardt easily secured victory there. In Arizona, Dean attained victory by a comfortable margin and also won over Clark in New Mexico in another upset. In Oklahoma, Gephardt shut out Edwards and Clark and attained victory by yet another slim margin. In Missouri, however, Gephardt scored his biggest win yet and shut out his next biggest competitor, Dean, by more than 7 points.

After his disappointing finish in Delaware, Senator Joseph "Spoiler" Lieberman withdrew from the race. Clark, who had admitted earlier in the race that the only way he would continue his campaign was if he could score a victory in Oklahoma, withdrew from the race as well. Most of his supporters flocked to either Gephardt or Dean. Kerry hadn't won a single state, and was now caught trying to catch up to the rest of the pack. Edwards was buoyed by his victory in South Carolina and began to look more optimistically towards the future. Gephardt however, was the real star. He had surpassed Dean in delegates, upsetting the entire race.

 

[JwEX]

Dean has carried 5 states, narrowly trails Gephardt in pledged delegates, minimal superdelegate support
Gephardt has carried 3 states, because of upset victory in Missouri, maintains a slight delegate lead over Dean, minimal superdelegate support
Edwards has carried one state, and is branding himself the new "Comeback Kid", minimal superdelegate support
Kerry has yet to carry a state, but is third in pledged delegates. He currently maintains the most superdelegate endorsements.

 

[JwEX]

A Brief Look At The Republicans

President Bush went into 2004 without even thinking about the Republican nomination. However, two days before the Iowa Caucus, whispers about primary opposition to Bush were realized when Republican Senator Lincoln Chafee announced that he had managed to put his name on the ballot in several primary states and would contest Bush in the primaries. Chafee was a moderate who disagreed with the majority of Bush's agenda and had decided to run when Saddam Hussein evaded capture in December. Chafee had quietly been promoting his personal platform in New Hampshire for months before he announced. Polls were conducted and showed that Chafee had more than 20% of support from New Hampshire voters. A debate was hastily organized and broadcasted on January 25, two days before the primary. Chafee was collected and prepared, while Bush was disorganized and slightly panicked. The Rhode Island Senator articulated himself clearly and polls hinted that Chafee had easily won the debate. However, nobody expected what would happen two days later. In New Hampshire, Chafee prevailed over Bush and turned Bush's easy ascent to the Republican nomination a tumultuous exercise. On Mini-Tuesday, Chafee also won in Delaware's hastily organized state convention (an official primary had not been planned), once again surprising pundits nationwide.

Bush is clearly the favorite for the nomination, however, Chafee's campaign has certainly destabilized his reelection prospects.
Chafee never expected to win New Hampshire, but when he did, his campaign gained a lot of momentum which gave him victory in Delaware and poll victories in much of the Northeast.

 

[kichinichini]

A Brief Look At The Republicans

President Bush went into 2004 without even thinking about the Republican nomination. However, two days before the Iowa Caucus, whispers about primary opposition to Bush were realized when Republican Senator Lincoln Chafee announced that he had managed to put his name on the ballot in several primary states and would contest Bush in the primaries. Chafee was a moderate who disagreed with the majority of Bush's agenda. Chafee had quietly been promoting his personal platform in New Hampshire for months before he announced. Polls were conducted and showed that Chafee had more than 20% of support from New Hampshire voters. A debate was hastily organized and broadcasted on January 25, two days before the primary. Chafee was collected and prepared, while Bush was disorganized and sightly panicked. The Rhode Island Senator articulated himself clearly and polls hinted that Chafee had easily won the debate. However, nobody expected what would happen two days later. In New Hampshire, Chafee prevailed over Bush and turned Bush's easy ascent to the Republican nomination a tumultuous exercise. On Mini-Tuesday, Chafee also won in Delaware's hastily organized state convention (an official primary had not been planned), once again surprising pundits nationwide.

Chafee is a terrible debater, as we saw.

 

[GrayJ12]

Very interresting timeline. If you need anyhelp,PM me.

 

[JwEX]

Very interresting timeline. If you need anyhelp,PM me.

Thanks for offering, mrbraingrayson!

 

[JwEX]

Chafee is a terrible debater, as we saw.

I understand that, however, Chafee did have a while to prepare while Bush was essentially thrown into it.

 

[kichinichini]

I understand that, however, Chafee did have a while to prepare while Bush was essentially thrown into it.

I'm not convinced, but ok . Otherwise, it is exactly the sort of silly thing he would do.

 

[JwEX]

I'm not convinced, but ok . Otherwise, it is exactly the sort of silly thing he would do.

I understand. I was very surprised when I was searching up info about the 2004 Republican primaries and saw that Chafee had actually been thinking about running. It seems outlandish, but in American Politics, what isn't?

 

[JwEX]

For those wondering, the POD is actually the failure of Operation Red Dawn(capture of Saddam Hussein). This causes a really negative period of politics so Dean decides to not be a part of it and runs a positive campaign, which gives him an edge over Gephardt and Kerry. On the Republican side, the failure of Red Dawn is what makes Chafee throw his hat into the ring.

 

[Johnrankins]

I've always been curious to see how Dean would do as President if elected in 2004, with that said I think if this general election 2004 is similar to OTL, Dean is going to have at least as tough of a time as Kerry did OTL and if Dean did pull it off, his victory would look like Kerry's Alt victory in "A Different Path" by Pericles. I personally think you need the Bush administration in 2004 TTL to go worse than it did OTL for Bush to be defeated outright or have a POD earlier than 2004.

The first thing he needs to do is not act like an arrogant SOB who already won before the first vote in the primaries was cast. I knew a number of Democrats who saw him as someone who wanted to skip the whole process of primaries and caucuses and be nominated by acclamation just because he was ahead in the polls at the moment. Someone who acted like (at best) a mid 19th century politician being picked in smoke filled rooms and (at worst) a petty dictator. He quickly lost their votes.

 

[JwEX]

The first thing he needs to do is not act like an arrogant SOB who already won before the first vote in the primaries was cast. I knew a number of Democrats who saw him as someone who wanted to skip the whole process of primaries and caucuses and be nominated by acclamation just because he was ahead in the polls at the moment. Someone who acted like (at best) a mid 19th century politician being picked in smoke filled rooms and (at worst) a petty dictator. He quickly lost their votes.

That's why I had him run a positive campaign, so he'd seem more approachable by voters.

 

[Johnrankins]

That's why I had him run a positive campaign, so he'd seem more approachable by voters.

He'd need more than that, he would have to not act like he already won. That put off a LOT of voters.

 

[JwEX]

The Road to Super Tuesday

He'd need more than that, he would have to not act like he already won. That put off a LOT of voters.

True, I don't know how I could make a specific POD that would change that though.

 

[Johnrankins]

The Road to Super Tuesday

True, I don't know how I could make a specific POD that would change that though.

Maybe a campaign worker points out to them that the only polls that count are the primary and caucuses votes, the Gallup polls means nothing. So don't act like you won it until the delegate count in your favor is insurmountable. Unless Dean accepts that he will lose. Voters don't like being left out of the process.