Did the Qing have the capacity to colonize the American west coast?

[Strategos' Risk]

Tony Jones’ Monarchy World, along with his other work, is one of the most imaginative and well-done timelines online. It’s got its share of neat little tidbits, one of which is despite a POD in the 1720s, the Qing are able to explore North America by the 1740s, and establish their first permanent trade post on the west coast in 1754! This along with other openness, almost like a renewal of the Yongle Emperor’s policies.

So ignore the political and ideological reservations aside- could the Qing have explored, even colonized, the west coast as late as the 18th century? Or would it take an earlier divergence like either the Ming surviving, or more interestingly, an unorthodox less traditionalist Shun dynasty in power? And maybe eastward explorations beginning in the 1600s to set the stage for this?

 

[Intosh]

I doubt that the Qing will colonize empty lands on the other side of the Ocean because if they have the possibility to send military forces by sea, they will colonise first south east Asia.

Or they will use their sea power to destroy the Wako and they will attack the ports from which the pirates samouraï terrorize the eastern coasts of Asia.

Or they will colonise the eastern coast of the Kamchatka peninsula and the Kouriles islands and others islands near the Northen Asian coast.

Even when the Chinese had a navy, their boats follow the coast. Building a fleet to cross an ocean wasn't something available to most countries.

 

[Arkenfolm]

It's probably easier for the Qing (or Shun) to do this than Ming since they aren't just exploring into the unknown. By this point, Spain has already conquered much of the New World and the Philippines and is regularly sending ships between Manila and Acapulco loaded with gold and silver. It would have to function as trading missions to the Spanish colonies, especially New Spain, and they would need to either steal enough Spanish charts or simply perform an epic feat of navigation, but it's certainly possible. They possibly need to copy elements from European ships as well. I would assume it would have something to do with Christianity in China, much as the Japanese mission to New Spain was done under the auspices of the Jesuits. The Spanish probably don't want the Chinese showing up on their doorstep unannounced and the Chinese wouldn't want to send out such a mission only for it to receive a bunch of cannonballs from coastal forts.

Of course trade and colonisation are two different things, so you'd probably need a Chinese discovery/use of the Manila galleon route (I don't think they'll take the northern route around Alaska) first. They would notice Cape Mendocino and settle in that vicinity (anywhere from Eureka to the northern Bay Area) and use it as resupply stations and trading posts with the local Pomo people (probably for stuff like antler velvet and ingredients in Chinese medicine). At some point the Spanish will discover them and there they could end up in some trouble, but we'll assume that a combination of military force and diplomacy allows the Chinese trading posts to succeed. I believe other Europeans (Dutch, English, etc.) would notice them as well and from there the Chinese settlements would prosper from further trade. Most or all of this would probably be illegal since it would be smuggling.

This would probably mean an earlier maritime fur trade, so the Chinese would be hunting sea otters and selling it to passing European ships (which will not make the Qing happy) which will further drive development. That would be around the time the Chinese would likely discover gold meaning another rush of Chinese settlement. If they start in the late 17th century, then by 1800 between natural growth and immigration you could have a million-plus Chinese on the West Coast.

Incidentally, I could see a lot of this effort being done by private groups like in Southeast Asia and they might not answer to the Qing and be more or less independent. But Qing could always assert control later and probably would since otherwise the trading posts would be making a lot of revenue that isn't going to the imperial government.

However, it's probably easiest for the Chinese to instead want to colonise/conquer the Philippines from Spain and then continuing to use Manila as a port to trade with the New World. It's much simpler than settling in the lands of barbarians and and has just as many benefits, if not more, short-term.

There was a TL here which had Tungning follow the Spanish and Dutch over the Pacific and settle in California and I'd suspect that Tungning or a similar entity would be just as likely as Qing or Shun.

 

[Atterdag]

I’ll second intosh. Even if the Qing developed tremendous naval power, which I think could happen with the right changes made, they’d have bigger more readily available targets in their own back yard. Once they establish dominion over all east and South-Eastern Asia, then probably, but that would go into severely wan jugs territory.

 

[Strategos' Risk]

Aside from the Iberians, a lot of the the European colonization took place under the auspices of royal charter companies and the like, right? Perhaps there could be something analogous for the Qing or the Shun- private entities striking forth, rather than state-run expeditions.

I think with ideas about East Asian colonization you almost have to trick the society into heading east. Maybe for whatever reason, some wako pirates keep pushing eastwards and end up having bases all the way in the Aleuts, and some enterprising admiral leads an expedition all the way there to destroy them, and end up setting up a military fort and/or trading posts afterwards? And could Asian pirates decide to head east to raid the Spanish galleons?

I like the Tungning idea. As with some timelines I've seen where the Mongols head east, or with 1632/Ring of Fire having Japanese Christian exiles settling Monterey Bay, perhaps the best people to start colonizing the New World should be those who have reason to flee home. This also mirrors the European experience with the Pilgrims and Puritans.

Basically, you just need a tricky start to get some initial exploration and settlement, and once the state gets wind that there's gold in California, they start taking it more seriously.

 

[Intosh]

Aside from the Iberians, a lot of the the European colonization took place under the auspices of royal charter companies and the like, right? Perhaps there could be something analogous for the Qing or the Shun- private entities striking forth, rather than state-run expeditions.

I think with ideas about East Asian colonization you almost have to trick the society into heading east. Maybe for whatever reason, some wako pirates keep pushing eastwards and end up having bases all the way in the Aleuts, and some enterprising admiral leads an expedition all the way there to destroy them, and end up setting up a military fort and/or trading posts afterwards? And could Asian pirates decide to head east to raid the Spanish galleons?

I like the Tungning idea. As with some timelines I've seen where the Mongols head east, or with 1632/Ring of Fire having Japanese Christian exiles settling Monterey Bay, perhaps the best people to start colonizing the New World should be those who have reason to flee home. This also mirrors the European experience with the Pilgrims and Puritans.

Basically, you just need a tricky start to get some initial exploration and settlement, and once the state gets wind that there's gold in California, they start taking it more seriously.

To have powerful privates entities in Imperial China, such as colonial trading compagnies to be able, with enough naval and land forces, to colonise foreign lands, you have to change deeply the culture of the Chinese society. In this culture, the merchant was very low in the social order.

I don't understand this fascination in this forum for colonisation of America and California. Before 1848, California was very low in everybody minds about being a place to colonise, the Spanish and the Mexicans put very few efforts to send settlers to this land.

The Russians colonise Alaska and later what is south to Alaska because they have established a fur trade where the main client was Imperial China, and they want to stop the growing presence of British trading compagnies. Their expansion was motivated by the concurrence of the British. Imperial China wil follow the same road of colonisation as the Russian Merchants, if seapower is available, colonise the north-eastern coasts of Asia and control the fur trade here.

And they have the Wako to fight, and to fight Wako with a minimum of successes, you have to attack them in their bases on the islands of Japan, so if China develop seapower, it can find itself engage in numerous invasions and wars against Japan.

The Wako were not the only threat to trade in Eastern and South-Eastern Asia, the southern Chinese coast were full of Chinese pirates, and the Malay pirates were a threat that only the Royal Navy was able to crush in the XIX century. So again a Chinese naval power had enough of problems close to home than sending settlers across the Ocean.

Colonising Taiwan, establishing control of the Ryukyu, fighting the Wako, fighting the Japanese Daïmyo that support them, fighting the Southern China Sea pirates, the Malay pirates, controlling Southern China, something than the Qing never succeed to do completely, colonising Kamchatka and the Aleoutians islands, it is plenty of things to do already.

 

[Intosh]

Tony Jones’ Monarchy World, along with his other work, is one of the most imaginative and well-done timelines online. It’s got its share of neat little tidbits, one of which is despite a POD in the 1720s, the Qing are able to explore North America by the 1740s, and establish their first permanent trade post on the west coast in 1754! This along with other openness, almost like a renewal of the Yongle Emperor’s policies.

So ignore the political and ideological reservations aside- could the Qing have explored, even colonized, the west coast as late as the 18th century? Or would it take an earlier divergence like either the Ming surviving, or more interestingly, an unorthodox less traditionalist Shun dynasty in power? And maybe eastward explorations beginning in the 1600s to set the stage for this?

I read this timeline, 20 years is not enough to build a fleet able to cross the Pacific Ocean. This entire part is almost ASB because the Chinese don't have the technology, the trained crews, and the cultural capacity to send merchants to the other side of the world.

This is a quote from the timeline.

You don't have something as Chinese international traders, many Chinese flee continental China to escape political persecutions of the Qing against the Han and they established themselves in plenty of countries of South-East Asia but by fleeing their country, they cut ties with it. They flee this country where they were persecuted. This is why many Chinese Diasporas are born from Southern China minorites.

THE 1740's ONWARDS


Chinese traders, encouraged by the policies of Shang-Kun, begin to travel further from China, around the Pacific and Indian Oceans, and to build large ocean-going trading ships for the first time in more than three hundred years. This leads to the re-opening of old Chinese trade routes to Africa, and the establishment of Chinese trading posts on the east coast of Africa, Madagascar (which the Chinese call Duome Xide Dao - Great Western Island) and the west coast of North America, as well as in many places in between. Chinese sailors also discover and settle various Pacific islands, which they use as re-supply points. These trading posts and settlements gradually grow into Chinese colonies. During this time the first Chinese, mainly merchants and exiles, and their families, begin to settle in Europe. [In the real world the first Chinese people began to settle in Europe in the late nineteenth century.]


China also adopts European-style mercantile practises.


As China re-opens its old links to Africa, this eventually causes the European powers to pay more attention to Africa too, and increase their links to and control of the continent.

 

[Strategos' Risk]

To have powerful privates entities in Imperial China, such as colonial trading compagnies to be able, with enough naval and land forces, to colonise foreign lands, you have to change deeply the culture of the Chinese society. In this culture, the merchant was very low in the social order.

Yes, that was implicit in the OP. For this premise to get off the ground, you need to handwave or at least table some cultural issues to be resolved later.

I don't understand this fascination in this forum for colonisation of America and California. Before 1848, California was very low in everybody minds about being a place to colonise, the Spanish and the Mexicans put very few efforts to send settlers to this land.

Because it pays off in the long run. California and the North American west coast boasts a multitude of natural resources and great climate to boot. San Francisco Bay is the largest natural harbor in the world. There's no shortages of ISOTs where uptimers make a beeline for California because it's prime territory. But true, people in that era had no idea what was in store there. So that's why you're might need people who have nothing else to lose to settle there and stumble upon gold, not unlike in OTL.

Imperial China wil follow the same road of colonisation as the Russian Merchants, if seapower is available, colonise the north-eastern coasts of Asia and control the fur trade here.

I think going along the Aleutian path is a fine alternative, I understand they're not just going to go directly for California, or Hawaii for that matter. A Sino-Russian fur race would make for an interesting scenario, sure. I think @metalinvader665's post in bringing up fur trappers and hunters of medicinal goods is an interesting idea. Like in Empty America, perhaps Chinese interest in the New World could be for animals for medicinal goods, which will at least bring "wildcat" hunters. Also it could always become a haven for smugglers and pirates if the Chinese, Spanish, and Japanese push them out of East Asia.

Colonising Taiwan, establishing control of the Ryukyu, fighting the Wako, fighting the Japanese Daïmyo that support them, fighting the Southern China Sea pirates, the Malay pirates, controlling Southern China, something than the Qing never succeed to do completely, colonising Kamchatka and the Aleoutians islands, it is plenty of things to do already.

I do think that it's true that there's a lot of unresolved maritime issues in Asia alone. In fact, @metalinvader665's post did bring up the issue of Luzon, and makes me wonder if this timeline is going to inevitably lead to conflict between the Chinese and the Spaniards. We also haven't determined which all of the possible sea routes for getting to the New World viable, not sure if the Spanish would be okay with sharing the treasure galleon route.

This entire part is almost ASB because the Chinese don't have the technology, the trained crews, and the cultural capacity to send merchants to the other side of the world.

You don't have something as Chinese international traders, many Chinese flee continental China to escape political persecutions of the Qing against the Han and they established themselves in plenty of countries of South-East Asia but by fleeing their country, they cut ties with it. They flee this country where they were persecuted. This is why many Chinese Diasporas are born from Southern China minorites.

Correct, which is why I found it to be one of the less believable quirks in the timeline, but still rather fun. Probably it's too quirky because it relies on an 18th century start, which is too late and so anachronistic.

I suppose one of the difficulties in getting this premise off the ground is to figure out what social or political changes it takes to force some Chinese to flee all the way east, at least to the Aleuts perhaps, or to New Spain, and then on to the unsettled west coast. But again, that's why in the OP I wanted to ask about logistical possibilities first before figuring out the social pressures. No point in inventing social situations if logistically it's too difficult.

 

[GuildedAgeNostalgia]

You need to improve the political clout of the Chinese merchant class since they were historically considered the least important Social class in Imperial China due to Confucian ideals.

 

[Arkenfolm]

I don't understand this fascination in this forum for colonisation of America and California. Before 1848, California was very low in everybody minds about being a place to colonise, the Spanish and the Mexicans put very few efforts to send settlers to this land.

It didn't fit Spanish colonial practices of "gather a bunch of natives, convert them to Christianity, and work them half to death" because the natives were too dispersed relative to most of the rest of the Spanish Empire. Even then, it's still surprising their galleons routinely sailed past Cape Mendocino (and occasionally were lost even further north) yet they made no real effort to settle the area. Even around Tierra del Fuego the Spanish tried to establish colonies.

I think with ideas about East Asian colonization you almost have to trick the society into heading east. Maybe for whatever reason, some wako pirates keep pushing eastwards and end up having bases all the way in the Aleuts, and some enterprising admiral leads an expedition all the way there to destroy them, and end up setting up a military fort and/or trading posts afterwards? And could Asian pirates decide to head east to raid the Spanish galleons?

I think the northern route is more difficult. It's out of the way, unexplored, and there's nothing up there but yet more furs the Chinese could get from various Siberian tribes who paid tribute to them or the many peoples en route to the Aleutians. It seems counterproductive to sail that far north if you're trying to reach New Spain. Same with the wokou, I don't see why they'd ever be that far north unless there were other East Asian powers active in that region to begin with.

One other place the Chinese might be interested in--Hawaii. OTL it's likely the Spanish knew of it and possibly shipwrecked there, but did essentially no exploration. Some Chinese ships who sight the land might decide to come in for a closer look. Hawaii would make a good base and the states there could be made to pay tribute to the Chinese and you'd end up with a sizable overseas Chinese community that might end up politically dominant as the Hawaiian population crashes due to disease and probably warfare. So it would be a slightly alternative route to the Manila galleon route but still ending up in the same vicinity.

 

[Strategos' Risk]

One other place the Chinese might be interested in--Hawaii. OTL it's likely the Spanish knew of it and possibly shipwrecked there, but did essentially no exploration. Some Chinese ships who sight the land might decide to come in for a closer look. Hawaii would make a good base and the states there could be made to pay tribute to the Chinese and you'd end up with a sizable overseas Chinese community that might end up politically dominant as the Hawaiian population crashes due to disease and probably warfare. So it would be a slightly alternative route to the Manila galleon route but still ending up in the same vicinity.

I think an expansionist Qing heading for Hawaii would be the natural approach to get a vital port in the middle of the Pacific. I just thought the sea currents wouldn't naturally lead them to the islands? Might be confused about it.

Had an errant thought today that what if the Qing had reversed the sea ban earlier on, and maybe something like a longer campaign to retake Formosa/Taiwan from the Kingdom of Tungning, coupled with naval mishaps with the Iberians and the Dutch, led to greater interest in naval affairs. So much to the point that an emperor (Qianlong, or rather an equivalent) decides to outdo his Ming predecessors and order his very own equivalent to Zheng He's voyages, for the sake of prestige and glory of the Great Qing. Leading to them exploring the Pacific coast of the Americas.

Just why was Yongle the only emperor to order such vast maritime voyages, and why couldn't there have been another sui generis leader after him?

 

[TRH]

No way. The Qing navy was incredibly weak from the start of their dynasty to the finish pretty much. They couldn't even clear their coasts of pirates - in the 1660s the Kangxi Emperor ordered the entire southeastern coast of China evacuated several miles inland to starve out a pirate fleet, which eventually worked by getting them to relocate to Taiwan instead. And in the early 1800s the Qing defeated another pirate fleet by just bribing them really generously because fighting them was seen as futile. They are not colonizing anything across the Pacific with that kind of naval tradition.

 

[Umbral]

The Pacific is immense. Much much larger than the Atlantic. And with little in the way of interesting resources or good refueling stops on the way.

The technological and navigational threshold they'd need to surmount is vastly greater than an approach from Europe.

Also, they would be lacking the paradigm shift of Colombus letters.

 

[Strategos' Risk]

No way. The Qing navy was incredibly weak from the start of their dynasty to the finish pretty much. They couldn't even clear their coasts of pirates - in the 1660s the Kangxi Emperor ordered the entire southeastern coast of China evacuated several miles inland to starve out a pirate fleet, which eventually worked by getting them to relocate to Taiwan instead. And in the early 1800s the Qing defeated another pirate fleet by just bribing them really generously because fighting them was seen as futile. They are not colonizing anything across the Pacific with that kind of naval tradition.

Maybe you can have Koxinga joining the Qing as his father did and thus large parts of the Ming navy are retained by the new dynasty, the sea ban is never imposed, and so on. Several emperors later after defeating the wokou and other pirates, a triumphant Qianlong analogue declares that Great Qing will now embark on an ambitious new set of treasure fleet voyages to eclipse the puny Ming ones, which does lead to China visiting the Americas and hell, why not circumnavigation of the world as well? And as a by-product trading posts are established, then modest colonization by the equivalent to royal charter companies.

You need to improve the political clout of the Chinese merchant class since they were historically considered the least important Social class in Imperial China due to Confucian ideals.

It is certainly true that in China and in Confucian societies in general, merchants were seen as the lowest of the low, but that didn't prevent the creation of business and trade as the sea bans got lifted over time. In fact, it seems like the stereotype of being anti-merchant is somewhat overstated:

Grandeur of the Qing Economy

Not to mention, Imperial Japan was also a Confucian society yet over time businesses there became very booming. Though admittedly perhaps that was because the end of the samurai class meant a lot of the clans turned to trade.

 

[Elfwine]

It would be really hard to go from the treasure fleet voyages as a precedent to sailing across the Pacific to colonize the west coast.

Technically possible, in the sense it wouldn't violate the laws of physics as we know them? Yes. Extraordinarily unlikely in any feasible set of circumstances including vastly more maritime-centered policies than OTL? Yes.

I mean, if you want to "eclipse the puny Ming voyages.", the west coast of North America would be a priority somewhere above discovering the Open Polar Sea compared to any other voyages you would have the capacity to attempt.

What we call California is not a prize waiting to be grabbed by whoever is farsighted enough to see it as such. I'm not saying it's worthless, to be clear, just not an obvious opportunity for massive wealth at a glance, either.

But someone determined to build a Pacific crossing navy, and determined to do something could probably do it. Set up some trading posts, all but forget about it for a while, remember it some time later when something like the 1849 gold rush hits (probably not in the OTL year, but gold country is a bit away from the coast) and things get more interesting.

 

[Arkenfolm]

I think an expansionist Qing heading for Hawaii would be the natural approach to get a vital port in the middle of the Pacific. I just thought the sea currents wouldn't naturally lead them to the islands? Might be confused about it.

It leads close enough to it. The Spanish almost certainly knew of Hawaii, they just didn't do anything with the islands for the same reason they pretty much ignored California (despite Cape Mendocino being a very important landmark to the Manila galleons).

Had an errant thought today that what if the Qing had reversed the sea ban earlier on, and maybe something like a longer campaign to retake Formosa/Taiwan from the Kingdom of Tungning, coupled with naval mishaps with the Iberians and the Dutch, led to greater interest in naval affairs. So much to the point that an emperor (Qianlong, or rather an equivalent) decides to outdo his Ming predecessors and order his very own equivalent to Zheng He's voyages, for the sake of prestige and glory of the Great Qing. Leading to them exploring the Pacific coast of the Americas.

I think you'd need something like that, but it would almost certainly be with the assistance of Europeans since this was the era the Japanese built European-style ships and even visited Mexico and Europe. Catholics had an influence on the Ming court at the very end of things, so if they establish influence with the Qing court, they might be able to persuade one of the early Qing rulers to do the same.

What we call California is not a prize waiting to be grabbed by whoever is farsighted enough to see it as such. I'm not saying it's worthless, to be clear, just not an obvious opportunity for massive wealth at a glance, either.

I'm not sure much in California outside of the cinnabar mine at New Almaden (traded widely among the Ohlone people) would be considered valuable to the Chinese. Antler velvet and such, maybe, but that would available much further north. The real treasure for the Chinese is Alaska and northern BC since there's a native trade in copper and jade. It seems silver was known but rarely used (too hard to work with native metalworking), gold doesn't seem to have been used.

Although by the time of the Qing, they could just be sending trade ships to Acapulco and be directly importing Spanish silver instead of bothering with whatever meager goods natives could provide.

 

[Elfwine]

I'm not sure much in California outside of the cinnabar mine at New Almaden (traded widely among the Ohlone people) would be considered valuable to the Chinese. Antler velvet and such, maybe, but that would available much further north. The real treasure for the Chinese is Alaska and northern BC since there's a native trade in copper and jade. It seems silver was known but rarely used (too hard to work with native metalworking), gold doesn't seem to have been used.

Although by the time of the Qing, they could just be sending trade ships to Acapulco and be directly importing Spanish silver instead of bothering with whatever meager goods natives could provide.

That (Acalulco) seems more profitable. Possibly some poking around to establish that Alaska/BC are a lot of money to accomplish not a whole lot, if curiosity bites hard enough.

 

[Strategos' Risk]

Funnily enough, the responses to an old thread I had created seem to indicate the reason why China never discovered Hawaii because the currents are unhelpful for them getting there, and in fact aren't much better for the Spaniards in Mexico either.

Chinese in Hawaii

Everyone always makes a big deal of Imperial China settling in the U.S. mainland as if people in the East cared about that. But baby steps. What about Hawaii? It makes a perfect rest stop in the smack dab middle of the Pacific. Why couldn't the Chinese have discovered Hawaii and claimed it...

www.alternatehistory.com

At this point I still think it'd be cool to even get a Fort Ross type of situation of a little Chinese enclave in the Pacific Americas anywhere between Alaska and Tierra Del Fuego, not specifically California, but I'm also now thinking of Qianlong trying to outdo the Ming treasure fleets by sailing far range anywhere at all, including the old routes going west towards India and to Africa. Qing meeting the Ashanti would be cool too.

 

[vgh...]

No way. The Qing navy was incredibly weak from the start of their dynasty to the finish pretty much. They couldn't even clear their coasts of pirates - in the 1660s the Kangxi Emperor ordered the entire southeastern coast of China evacuated several miles inland to starve out a pirate fleet, which eventually worked by getting them to relocate to Taiwan instead. And in the early 1800s the Qing defeated another pirate fleet by just bribing them really generously because fighting them was seen as futile. They are not colonizing anything across the Pacific with that kind of naval tradition.

With the right POD, could the pirates? Surely they can take native wives and make an interesting allohistorical ethnic community at least. idk much about this topic but it happened sorta in Indonesia and Malaysia with Han men taking Malay wives and forming their own little diaspora community

 

[Arkenfolm]

That (Acalulco) seems more profitable. Possibly some poking around to establish that Alaska/BC are a lot of money to accomplish not a whole lot, if curiosity bites hard enough.

I don't know, jade and an extra source of furs might be worth it, and it's probably very possible natives would switch to bringing them silver since it's noted that in Alaska in the late 19th century, the Tlingit started making silver jewelry (using native silver) once they learned of its value from white traders and prospectors. At this point they apparently still mostly used their native metalworking techniques which was noted as being very difficult to work silver, (let alone gold) with, so probably no gold rush, but maybe in 75-100 years the Qing would start seriously looking for silver.

But yes, Acapulco would be exactly what the Chinese would want to visit and trade with since it's the gateway to New Spain's rich silver trade. Question is what the Spanish would think about the Chinese coming to them.

With the right POD, could the pirates? Surely they can take native wives and make an interesting allohistorical ethnic community at least. idk much about this topic but it happened sorta in Indonesia and Malaysia with Han men taking Malay wives and forming their own little diaspora community

What are the pirates "pirating?" There's no history of trade between the New World and China, unlike with SE Asia.