DIES THE FIRE COLLAPSE

I just got back from a vacation in Oregon and points north and while I was there I had the thought that Sterling ignored a lot of small rural communities that might (uncomfortably) survive the loss of most power sources. This made me think of other places in the world that would be less affected by the event, rural Africa, Asia etc. I know that Sterling eliminates these areas by having the ravening urban hordes devour them. I believe that the case for major portions of large urban areas to make it to the edge of the city is over stated and the ability of less urban areas to self organize to defend themselves is understated.
For instance in California the two largest population centers LA and SF are geographically isolated by desert and water so the walk out is very difficult at best.

Looking at the areas that you are familiar with what would be your assessment of the results of the event?
 
I'm not sure how you mean - Stirling has great parts of rural Africa and Asia both survive the collapse. Compared with Europe or most of North America those regions do phenomenally well in the initial event.

Overall though I agree. He in many ways treats humans during the collapse as a predictable force or nature - an irresistable force against which little hope of survival could exist. That leads to the uniformity of his cannibal bands and the relative absence of other survivors in the "death zones." For one thing, I'd point out that the US is scattered with stocked, lockable bomb shelters which could shelter a combined population approaching that portrayed for the human vermin. And there are people who know how to hide and live off the land.

That said, I lived on a rural boarding school campus in the Appalachians that ran its own farm (including goat and beef) and I doubt they'd survive without incredible luck. It's easy to overestimate food production if you haven't been directly involved. Despite being predominately a community of young, healthy people with its own food supply there is no way that the existing farm could be made to feed the population of the school. Worse, there were neighboring small towns, which in America means large numbers of people (a few thousand) who are completely dependent on trucks arriving regularly at their supermarket. Even the minor roads around would lead people straight to us.

It wouldn't lead hordes straight to us, but the reality is that it wouldn't take hordes to kill the chances of most American "farming" communities in the east. Just a few dozen people making off with what they could carry....
 
From my reading of the books I don't remember any serious mention of parts of Africa & Asia doing phenomenally well. All I remember is the resurgent Anglo-Norse from the Isle of Wight recolonizing Europe and fighting fanatic barbarians from central/west Africa. I would have thought that a Europe depopulated to the extent that Sterling portrays would most likely be settled by rural central Asians (Turks, Siberians, etc.) moving west to better farm lands.

What I question is the realism of the almost instant descent of the worlds population into barbarism. I believe that there would be more of an attempt to organize and survive as a society than Sterling posits. I do not exclude a massive die off, the currant population levels and distribution are clearly unsustainable, and some level of banditry and cannibalism is inevitable. I think it probable that in areas like the US and Canada some level of "state" and even "Federal" government would survive or be reoganized.

My thought and question to others is what is the likely social survival picture in your estimation?
 
Things do amazingly well west of the Missisippi technically, except for the large coastal metro area of California (Northern California though has some survival) and the American South-West due to the lack of water, though he has made mention of survivors in the Ozarks and the Apache.
StirlingMapFinalC.jpg



He specifically areas around Sengal survive as Islamic Corsair City-States and areas of Sub-Saharan Africa that are all traditional make survival. Apparently the Nasser Dam collapses and wipes out mostly everyone along the Nile up to the Med Sea.

Also in Asia Mongols DEFINITLY survive well and so do the Siberans and and Neo-Cossacks. Their appears to be Han Chinese survivors too probably around Sichuan basin area. Their is a Raj in Bengal thats mentioned, and the Chinese Singapore manage to survive because of strict organization. In the Middle-East besides very traditional Bedouin Nomads, populations of the Kurds survive in the Anatolia and Northern Iraq.
 
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Tomb, Thats a map of Sterlings idea. What's yours?

Mine is a badly damaged United States struggling to adapt to 18th century technology. Best case, maybe.
 
What I question is the realism of the almost instant descent of the worlds population into barbarism. I believe that there would be more of an attempt to organize and survive as a society than Sterling posits. I do not exclude a massive die off, the currant population levels and distribution are clearly unsustainable, and some level of banditry and cannibalism is inevitable. I think it probable that in areas like the US and Canada some level of "state" and even "Federal" government would survive or be reoganized.

My thought and question to others is what is the likely social survival picture in your estimation?

The existing US social order completely collapses in the Emberverse books because Stirling wants it to for his narrative, not because it is the most likely immediate outcome. Obviously, large cities and suburban areas would collapse - there are too many people packed into too small an area with not enough basic survival skills to make it. But like you, I believe most people - including those with the skills and knowledge to survive without modern technology - would tend to coalesce around existing community organizations - city councils, military bases, churches, police departments, or corporations. Each in their own way, these entities would seek to preserve and maintain what they saw as "American Culture". To me, Stirling's whole notion that people would somehow immediately devolve into some sort of medieval mind-set, complete with Knights and pagan tree worship has little basis in the reality of modern America. As displaced starving hordes flee the cities and suburbs I think the majority would seek to fall under the protection of functioning small communities - not eat them - and most of not all of these communities would attempt as best they could to incorporate the refuges in a humane way. It is in fact possible that something akin to serfdom or slavery might be seen as a necessary evil to allow the most people to survive, but it would rarely be an end in itself. I guess I have too much faith in the essential goodness of modern humanity to imagine the total collapse.

That being said, I don't believe the USA as a single federation could survive, nor could most States. Most leadership in all three branches of government at the federal level and in states tend to be located in the large urban areas hardest hit. Plus, virtually all comunication would have broken down. More likely you would get the rise of hundreds, maybe thousands, of small commnities that retained a loyalty to the concept of the USA (and the State of, say Oregon) and who saw in their survival and growth a way to start rebuilding the old order. I also presume that the leadership of most of these statelets would be drawn from governmental or quasi-governmental figures in the pre collapse - police chiefs, mayors, military base commanders, businesses, trade union leadership, chambers of commerce, etc. Such people would be predisposed to ally or join in confederation with other like-minded groups the next county over.

On the other hand, the strong notion of local rule and federalism in the USA would probably make the resurrection of a continental (or even regional) nation unlikely. Over decades and then centuries, the simple fact of distance and primitive communication would lead to the evolution of fully independent states - and probably such divergence in language that "American English" as a single mutually intelligible language would disappear. At that point cultural devolution would set in and you could see the gradual rise of radically distinct social orders, religious systems, kingdoms, empires, and what not across the former USA, but that would be the long-term result of the collapse, not the immediate reaction to it.
 
agriculture in the USA would collapse because it is so specialized and so reliant on trucking. Farmers buy seeds that are trucked in from somewhere else, use fertilizers that are trucked in from somewhere else, plant seeds with gas-run vehicles, water with electric run pumps, harvest with more gas-run vehicles, and then ship their harvest off to somewhere else in gas-run vehicles. There at somewhere else, they process the wheat/corn/whatever, and truck it out to somewhere else, where they turn it into food for us. I really doubt that there are more than a handful of places in the USA where the whole process is done all right there in one place. Plus, there is no easy replacement for all those gas-run vehicles... the USA has a tiny population of big draft horses. So, agriculture will collapse, and society will collapse. There will be a few places where the handful of people who know how to do the whole process (without electricity or gasoline) can gather and teach people how to do it. And even all of these won't be successful, as they will have to be damn lucky to get all the seeds and animals they need.
Personally, I think Stirling was optimistic...
 

PipBoy2999

Banned
Why is the South and Southeast a Dead Zone? Just scattering some seed in my back yard yeilded more cucumbers, tomatos and squash than my family could eat or give away. Low population density plus extremely fertile soil should yeild a high rural population surviving.
 
Why is the South and Southeast a Dead Zone? Just scattering some seed in my back yard yeilded more cucumbers, tomatos and squash than my family could eat or give away. Low population density plus extremely fertile soil should yeild a high rural population surviving.

did that happen overnight? And what are you going to do in the months it takes for those seeds to grow? And where are you going to get the seeds? And what are you going to do when the hordes of starving people move out of the cities and scour the surrounding countryside for every scrap of food they can find?
 
alot of my familys from west verginia, and from what i see when i go to visit em, as long as you managed to fight of people coming from the east ( and thatd be pretty easy if you were in a 'holler') youd get by pretty well as soon as the crops started growing. also central kentucky (where i live) has a lot of horse which you could use to hitale it out into the boonies.
 
it occurs to me that the only groups of people who would have the knowledge and equipment to survive are the Amish, Hutterites, and such groups. Unfortunately, their chances of surviving are going to be dismal too, since outsiders will descend upon them looking for food...
 

Petike

Kicked
What I question is the realism of the almost instant descent of the worlds population into barbarism. I believe that there would be more of an attempt to organize and survive as a society than Sterling posits. I do not exclude a massive die off, the currant population levels and distribution are clearly unsustainable, and some level of banditry and cannibalism is inevitable.

As already mentioned in the other recent Stirling thread, it gets a bit ridiculous how everybody who's been hungry for just a week immediately morphs into a beast-like pseudo-zombie cannibal, with no qualms of eating his fellow citizens. :p I can believe every other bit of this specific post-apocalyptic setting's initial chaos, except the whole cannibal part. It's just way over the top, as if Stirling wanted to write in a bunch of cartoonishly ebiiiil one-shot villains. :mad:
 
As already mentioned in the other recent Stirling thread, it gets a bit ridiculous how everybody who's been hungry for just a week immediately morphs into a beast-like pseudo-zombie cannibal, with no qualms of eating his fellow citizens. :p I can believe every other bit of this specific post-apocalyptic setting's initial chaos, except the whole cannibal part. It's just way over the top, as if Stirling wanted to write in a bunch of cartoonishly ebiiiil one-shot villains. :mad:


It's not even the instacannibals either. It's the FOREVER UNCLEAN. I would think that is such a horrible situation that people would just kind of look at cannibalism as sort of a Donner Party type of thing. It happened it sucked and lets just move on and not talk about it.
But no we need to cannibals to justify feudalism (after all what else would the Lords protect us serfs from?) even if the feudalism makes even less sense.
As I said in one of the other Stirling DTF threads I could see something very similar to feudalism pop up in time. But not 1 year later. Modern day people would make crappy slaves and crappy slave owners because neither would have any practice with 15th century farming.
 

Petike

Kicked
It's not even the instacannibals either. It's the FOREVER UNCLEAN. I would think that is such a horrible situation that people would just kind of look at cannibalism as sort of a Donner Party type of thing. It happened it sucked and lets just move on and not talk about it.
But no we need to cannibals to justify feudalism (after all what else would the Lords protect us serfs from?) even if the feudalism makes even less sense.
As I said in one of the other Stirling DTF threads I could see something very similar to feudalism pop up in time. But not 1 year later. Modern day people would make crappy slaves and crappy slave owners because neither would have any practice with 15th century farming.

That too. ;)
 
Personally I think that the best overall discription of the type of farming community that would make it is Richland for those outside of the Northwest. Also IMO some of the smaller cities on the Great Lakes would survive in a shrunken form to some degree. They have access to water and will have the ability to fish to a certain extent. Fishing on the GL is not all about Salmon and Lake Trout. I suspect that once the artificially stocked salmon die off from reaching spawning age the populations of perch, smelt and whitefish are going to explode. Plus at the time the change takes place a lot of farmers are all ready going to have their seed stock on hand plus the local hardware stores and garden centers will have their seeds in stock for summer squash, beans and other stuff. Hell are seeds from cucs, peppers and tomatos from the super market viable?
 
vegetable growing is one thing people can do, but there are problems that have to be dealt with. First, vegetables are manpower intensive if you don't have automation; they have to be planted carefully, thinned at the right time, fed the right fertilizers, etc. Plus, vegetables are vulnerable to a lot of fungus and insect attacks (for which you won't have commercial sprays available much longer). Plus, you have to judge just how many plants you need to plant so that you have both enough to harvest to eat and enough to give you seeds for next year. Plus, you have to both know how and have the equipment for preserving them (luckily, canning jars are widely available). If it was me, I think I'd plant every seed I could get my hands on and hope for the best...
As for fishing, it's certainly an option... but how hard would it be to get boats to go out and fish that don't require engines? Also, so far as the Great Lakes are concerned... are the lampreys still there, or are they finally gone? If they're still around and not being controlled by humans anymore, the fish there have a big problem...
 
And what are you going to do when the hordes of starving people move out of the cities and scour the surrounding countryside for every scrap of food they can find?

That's one of the things about the situation that bothers me.How many of the urbanites are actually going to survive long enough to join the ravening horde? I suspect that many will stay put in the city's waiting for the government to rescue them until it is too late to get out. Some will be too unfit to get very far, some will be unrealistic optimists, some will realize that there is enough food on the hoof in the city to survive (Stirlings favorites). While I do believe that the urban survival rate will be well under one percent, I also believe that the majority will die within the urban perimeter. In my opinion the best survival rate will be in communities of 5,000 or less.

Zoomar, the survival of state and federal government I suggested will probably not mean the same individuals but the concept itself. It is too well inculcated in the north american mindset to disappear. As things start to stabilize the person running Portland will be the "Mayor", even if he skipped the election part, because if he calls himself the king even his supporters will think he has gone loony-tunes. Mayors will need to coordinate, that's what counties and states are for. the states will need to coordinate, that's what the federal government is for. Also there will be elections in time, if some of them are rigged to put the the same guy in charge, that is also an American tradition. Emperors and dukes won't cut it in north america. As for the rest of the world I don't pretend to know what forms and titles will prevail.
 
Just wondering, has any one here, or any where else for that matter done a map of what the Emberverse world looks like beyond N.America?
 
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