Doolittle Raid scrubbed, where does TF 16 go instead?

[Naval Aviation Fan]

Ok, so, for whatever reason, say Nimitz or his bosses cancel the upcoming Doolittle Raid, before task force 16 heads west of PH/Oahu, and the carriers instead just ferry the army bombers to Oahu or Midway instead. Historically, TF 11 (USS Lexington), TF 16 (USS Enterprise & USS Hornet) and TF 17 (USS Yorktown) were all ordered south, so in this situation, all 4 USN carriers are present at the Battle of the Coral Sea.

For purposes of this thread, let us keep the discussion on how much more losses the IJN suffers over OTL, meaning let's not have any wasted time talking about how the Japanese might get lucky and do more damage, and/or take less damage than historically.

IJN Shoho still gets sunk the first day, but the second day, with twice as many USN carriers and fighters in the fight, what additional losses might Shōkaku and Zuikaku suffer to their airgroups? What about more damage to these carriers? Could one or both be sunk?

To try to keep things honest, let us also assume that Lexington and Yorktown suffer historical damage, as the IJN carrier crews are better trained and more experienced than the USN crews, the IJN gets their licks in, but suffers more for it because of the presence of TF 16

The trade off in this ATL is no morale/propaganda victory from the Doolittle Raid, but more actual damage to the IJN instead.

 

[Naval Aviation Fan]

In the first poll option, the IJN losses all three carriers...

USS Lexington is damaged, but then suffers three different sets of explosions, and is abandoned and scuttled later on. That is history, but in that history, Task Force 17 had a badly damaged USS Yorktown on hand, and that was the only USN carrier nearby, and the IJN had a damaged and an intact carrier nearby. ITTL, TF 16 is near to hand, with both USS Enterprise and USS Hornet intact, and no IJN carriers remaining.

The explosions on Lexington didn't (as far as I know) cause her any additional damage below the waterline, so could she be saved?

Otherwise, Midway awaits, and both carriers in TF 16 now have a carrier v carrier battle under their belts, so...

If Lexington is saved, how long might she be in PH, before being sent to the west coast for repair and refit?

 

[Spencersj345.346]

honestly depends on the impact of all the extra fighters and flak and targets to spread the damage/ease of dodging the attackers do in terms of how much damage the USN forces take including the status of Lady Lex. On another note with 4 USN carriers.....what horrible things happen to the Shoho task force? Because I doubt all 4 carrier's strikes will hit the Shoho and the 4 Furatakas and Aobas aren't the most tanky of ships to stuff like 1000lb SAP bombs and there's all of 1 DD in the formation.

 

[Naval Aviation Fan]

honestly depends on the impact of all the extra fighters and flak and targets to spread the damage/ease of dodging the attackers do in terms of how much damage the USN forces take including the status of Lady Lex. On another note with 4 USN carriers.....what horrible things happen to the Shoho task force? Because I doubt all 4 carrier's strikes will hit the Shoho and the 4 Furatakas and Aobas aren't the most tanky of ships to stuff like 1000lb SAP bombs and there's all of 1 DD in the formation.

Heh heh, true.

 

[CT7834]

The big factor of TF16 being at Coral Sea. Was that Fletcher would not be in command. Instead Halsey would be as the senior Admiral.

 

[Naval Aviation Fan]

The big factor of TF16 being at Coral Sea. Was that Fletcher would not be in command. Instead Halsey would be as the senior Admiral.

What effect would you look for from that? Would Halsey have done more damage?

 

[CT7834]

In short.

1. More damage to the Japanese invasion force on Tulagi. Halsey would have used either 2 or more carriers.

2. Crace and TF44 won’t be detached to deal with the invasion convoy. At least until Shokaku and Zuikaku are damaged. Also Halsey would have Lexington, Yorktown, Enterprise and Hornet in TF16.

3. Prioritisation of the destruction or retreat of Carrier Division 5 above the damage of the invasion convoy. Yes it could make Port Moresby vulnerable. But Halsey would see Shokaku and. Zuikaku as the bigger threat and he would reason that without them. The Japanese would be vulnerable with only Shoho as protection.

4. Aggressive scouting as with four VS squadrons, Halsey can be a bit more through in his searches. Especially on either 5 May or 6 May as his fleet will have an opportunity to hide in a weather front.

5. The second he locates Shokaku and Zuikaku. The rest of the aircraft on Lexington, Yorktown, Enterprise and Hornet would be dispatched. With some fighters being held for CAP. There would still be some mistakes due to McClusky being recently promoted to Enterprise’s Air Group Commander. Hornet’s Air Group being new and the strikes not coordinating as effectively as the Japanese. But there’s enough aircraft to either outright destroy Shokaku and Zuikaku. Or assuming the TBDs run into issues. The Dauntlesses can knock out Shokaku and Zuikaku’s flight decks.

6. Defensively. There would be a larger screen and with more Wildcats devoted to CAP. It would be harder for Shokaku and Zuikaku’s strike to go through. But Lexington still has the manoeuvrability of a truck. So that May break up the fleet formation. Which the Japanese pilots will exploit. But the Yorktowns need a coordinated strike to cripple them completely and while I think there’s a chance for one, two or all three taking damage in some way. The fighters, odd Dauntlesses and AA would chew up a majority of the Japanese strike going in and out.

6. Regardless of damage to his own ships. As soon as Halsey gets word of Carrier Division 5 either being destroyed or battered and forced to retreat. Preferably the former. He will turn his attention to Shoho, her escorts and the transports.

7. If Lexington still goes up like a Roman candle. Halsey may cop more flak from King. Especially as a Vice Admiral and former subordinate. However any aggressive follow up actions may calm him down.

8. The stress of this Battle will definitely cause Halsey to be sidelined for Midway. Which will mean Fletcher will be senior officer going into Battle. So he’d see how Halsey had operated the carriers and build off of that.

9. Spruance would be at Coral Sea as screen commander for TF16 and having been in that battle. He may have an easier time coordinating the TF at Midway.

10. Hornet has battle experience and assuming Mitscher, Ring or anyone else does anything stubborn or stupid at Coral Sea to cause unnecessary casualties. They can actually contribute to Midway.

11. Nimitz will have a slight issue of replenishing the Air Groups of 3-4 carriers rather than one. So Saratoga’s Air Group. Plus whatever new aircraft on Pearl.

 

[Naval Aviation Fan]

In short.

This is the kind of reply I was looking forward to when I first thought about making this thread. I almost didn't post because of health issues, but your very nice and well thought out post is giving me much to think about and enjoy. Many thanks!

1. More damage to the Japanese invasion force on Tulagi. Halsey would have used either 2 or more carriers.

I had not thought about that part at all, I'm ashamed to admit, but you are correct to point this out.

2. Crace and TF44 won’t be detached to deal with the invasion convoy. At least until Shokaku and Zuikaku are damaged. Also Halsey would have Lexington, Yorktown, Enterprise and Hornet in TF16.

3. Prioritisation of the destruction or retreat of Carrier Division 5 above the damage of the invasion convoy. Yes it could make Port Moresby vulnerable. But Halsey would see Shokaku and. Zuikaku as the bigger threat and he would reason that without them. The Japanese would be vulnerable with only Shoho as protection.

The only part about this I would even think about objecting to is the US side not missing the S/Z force on day one, and for lack of any other targets, just hammer the heck out of Shoho and company, while the IJN also makes the mistakes they did, and end up hitting Neosho/Sims rather than the US carriers, as both sides are doing this carrier vs carrier battle for the first time. If we had the historical mistakes on day one, Shoho and co are going to get many more attacks made on them by aircraft that were not available historically, and while I would want to error on the side of conservative strike results by Enterprise/Hornet on the first day, the mistakes they make on the invasion force, are lessons learned for the next days main event, as well as later on at Midway.

As I understand it, the Japanese force was far to the east, and so went undetected, while the Japanese thought the US carriers were to their south, rather than west, and so all their first days strike found were the two American ships.

4. Aggressive scouting as with four VS squadrons, Halsey can be a bit more through in his searches. Especially on either 5 May or 6 May as his fleet will have an opportunity to hide in a weather front.

Honestly, I'm not sure that the increased scouting is going to help, on the very first day of carrier vs carrier combat either side has ever had, as it is my thinking that both sides missed each others main forces because they had already passed the point of anything like a head on collision, and were already behind the other fellows main forces.

5. The second he locates Shokaku and Zuikaku. The rest of the aircraft on Lexington, Yorktown, Enterprise and Hornet would be dispatched. With some fighters being held for CAP. There would still be some mistakes due to McClusky being recently promoted to Enterprise’s Air Group Commander. Hornet’s Air Group being new and the strikes not coordinating as effectively as the Japanese. But there’s enough aircraft to either outright destroy Shokaku and Zuikaku. Or assuming the TBDs run into issues. The Dauntlesses can knock out Shokaku and Zuikaku’s flight decks.

Yep. Only thing I'm unsure about is, does the Zuikaku still remain hidden under the clouds, and thus ke[t from getting noticed while so many other planes are in the air and awaiting their turns to attack? With four carriers worth of aircraft, I'd like to think than both IJN carriers would get plastered at the very least like Shōkaku did historically, meaning essentially the end of Japanese carrier flight operations for the duration of the battle. Could the US carriers then get an afternoon strike off? they hit historically before noon, so a second strike could easily return to base, refuel and rearm and head back into battle in the early afternoon, and this is in May so...

Wait a minute.

This is south of the equator, right? How much daylight is left? I was thinking about it being mid/late spring, but thats in the northern hemisphere, but down south, this would have been mid/late fall?

I remember that the Japanese aircraft carriers turned on their lights to guide their planes in to landing between 8-10 PM that first night, and that before that, these same Japanese planes had earlier tried to land on US carriers by mistake (in the dark)?

6. Defensively. There would be a larger screen and with more Wildcats devoted to CAP. It would be harder for Shokaku and Zuikaku’s strike to go through.

I agree. I'm thinking that better/more AA and CAP equals fewer planes left to launch attacks, and if they then divide these fewer plans up among twice as many targets over OTL, then we should be seeing less hits than historically. I could be wrong of course, but if the Japanese want to sink the US carriers, massed attacks on two ships would seem to offer better chances of landing multiple hits on one ship, (and doing more severe damage) than just spreading their limited numbers and trying to "hit" all four carriers, and hope for doing light damage to all four.

But Lexington still has the manoeuvrability of a truck.

Only thing I can see helping Lexington is if the Japanese divide up their strikes, so the fewer attacks against Lady Lex might mean only bombs or torpedoes, and not both, hitting her.

So that May break up the fleet formation. Which the Japanese pilots will exploit.

I think that to be fair, all ships taking evasive action, at the same time, are going to cause confusion, but this may or may not be something the Japanese fliers can exploit, given the limited timeframe, and more fighters opposing them. For all I know, the increased fighters may mean that the entire attack gets disrupted, making coordinated attack runs harder.

But the Yorktown's need a coordinated strikes to cripple them completely and while I think there’s a chance for one, two or all three taking damage in some way. The fighters, odd Dauntlesses and AA would chew up a majority of the Japanese strike going in and out.

I'm going to choose to leave this basically unanswered, firstly because I don't really know what the Japanese would do in a situation where they find twice as many targets as historically, and my own personal opinion is that they would concentrate their efforts on limited numbers of targets. Midway didn't really end up being very instructive in this regard, as Yorktown was alone, and the Japanese there had limited forces, as opposed to this alt Coral Sea, so who knows?

6. Regardless of damage to his own ships. As soon as Halsey gets word of Carrier Division 5 either being destroyed or battered and forced to retreat. Preferably the former. He will turn his attention to Shoho, her escorts and the transports.

I would, because of the starting positions on the first day, opinion that Shoho and co bear the full brunt of the US carriers strikes, while Neosho and Sims get the same, all due to the deployments having the opposing main forces in each others flanks, and both side being inexperienced on the first day of this kind of warfare.

7. If Lexington still goes up like a Roman candle. Halsey may cop more flak from King. Especially as a Vice Admiral and former subordinate. However any aggressive follow up actions may calm him down.

If Lady Lex takes historical damage, hard to fault the guy for than, and if they knock out an extra carrier or two in the process...

8. The stress of this Battle will definitely cause Halsey to be sidelined for Midway. Which will mean Fletcher will be senior officer going into Battle. So he’d see how Halsey had operated the carriers and build off of that.

9. Spruance would be at Coral Sea as screen commander for TF16 and having been in that battle. He may have an easier time coordinating the TF at Midway.

10. Hornet has battle experience and assuming Mitscher, Ring or anyone else does anything stubborn or stupid at Coral Sea to cause unnecessary casualties. They can actually contribute to Midway.

11. Nimitz will have a slight issue of replenishing the Air Groups of 3-4 carriers rather than one. So Saratoga’s Air Group. Plus whatever new aircraft on Pearl.

Yes to all f the above!

If the battle went down as follows...

Day one mistakes are repeated here, as inexperience takes it's toll. Hornet still gets combat experience, her pilots learn from their mistakes.
Day two, all the US carriers get their licks in, gaining more combat experience, this time against enemy fleet carriers, and the best the IJN has to offer.

 

[CaptainCalvert]

This is the kind of reply I was looking forward to when I first thought about making this thread. I almost didn't post because of health issues, but your very nice and well thought out post is giving me much to think about and enjoy. Many thanks!


I had not thought about that part at all, I'm ashamed to admit, but you are correct to point this out.

The only part about this I would even think about objecting to is the US side not missing the S/Z force on day one, and for lack of any other targets, just hammer the heck out of Shoho and company, while the IJN also makes the mistakes they did, and end up hitting Neosho/Sims rather than the US carriers, as both sides are doing this carrier vs carrier battle for the first time. If we had the historical mistakes on day one, Shoho and co are going to get many more attacks made on them by aircraft that were not available historically, and while I would want to error on the side of conservative strike results by Enterprise/Hornet on the first day, the mistakes they make on the invasion force, are lessons learned for the next days main event, as well as later on at Midway.

As I understand it, the Japanese force was far to the east, and so went undetected, while the Japanese thought the US carriers were to their south, rather than west, and so all their first days strike found were the two American ships.

Honestly, I'm not sure that the increased scouting is going to help, on the very first day of carrier vs carrier combat either side has ever had, as it is my thinking that both sides missed each others main forces because they had already passed the point of anything like a head on collision, and were already behind the other fellows main forces.

Yep. Only thing I'm unsure about is, does the Zuikaku still remain hidden under the clouds, and thus ke[t from getting noticed while so many other planes are in the air and awaiting their turns to attack? With four carriers worth of aircraft, I'd like to think than both IJN carriers would get plastered at the very least like Shōkaku did historically, meaning essentially the end of Japanese carrier flight operations for the duration of the battle. Could the US carriers then get an afternoon strike off? they hit historically before noon, so a second strike could easily return to base, refuel and rearm and head back into battle in the early afternoon, and this is in May so...

Wait a minute.

This is south of the equator, right? How much daylight is left? I was thinking about it being mid/late spring, but thats in the northern hemisphere, but down south, this would have been mid/late fall?

I remember that the Japanese aircraft carriers turned on their lights to guide their planes in to landing between 8-10 PM that first night, and that before that, these same Japanese planes had earlier tried to land on US carriers by mistake (in the dark)?

I agree. I'm thinking that better/more AA and CAP equals fewer planes left to launch attacks, and if they then divide these fewer plans up among twice as many targets over OTL, then we should be seeing less hits than historically. I could be wrong of course, but if the Japanese want to sink the US carriers, massed attacks on two ships would seem to offer better chances of landing multiple hits on one ship, (and doing more severe damage) than just spreading their limited numbers and trying to "hit" all four carriers, and hope for doing light damage to all four.

Only thing I can see helping Lexington is if the Japanese divide up their strikes, so the fewer attacks against Lady Lex might mean only bombs or torpedoes, and not both, hitting her.

I think that to be fair, all ships taking evasive action, at the same time, are going to cause confusion, but this may or may not be something the Japanese fliers can exploit, given the limited timeframe, and more fighters opposing them. For all I know, the increased fighters may mean that the entire attack gets disrupted, making coordinated attack runs harder.

I'm going to choose to leave this basically unanswered, firstly because I don't really know what the Japanese would do in a situation where they find twice as many targets as historically, and my own personal opinion is that they would concentrate their efforts on limited numbers of targets. Midway didn't really end up being very instructive in this regard, as Yorktown was alone, and the Japanese there had limited forces, as opposed to this alt Coral Sea, so who knows?

I would, because of the starting positions on the first day, opinion that Shoho and co bear the full brunt of the US carriers strikes, while Neosho and Sims get the same, all due to the deployments having the opposing main forces in each others flanks, and both side being inexperienced on the first day of this kind of warfare.

If Lady Lex takes historical damage, hard to fault the guy for than, and if they knock out an extra carrier or two in the process...

Yes to all f the above!

If the battle went down as follows...

Day one mistakes are repeated here, as inexperience takes it's toll. Hornet still gets combat experience, her pilots learn from their mistakes.
Day two, all the US carriers get their licks in, gaining more combat experience, this time against enemy fleet carriers, and the best the IJN has to offer.

Tulangi is quite near the equator, so not much difference between summer and winter. The internet says just under 11 1/2 hrs of daylight in May. Midway is slightly north of the equator and gets to about 13 1/2hrs in May.
So there should be enough time for another strike as long as the fleets aren't too far apart. The main limitation is whether or not they are confident of getting the aircraft back safely, but if the prize is big enough it would be worth risking a few ditched aircraft. A convincing win would allow a good chance to recover aircrew the following day, so this may be a reasonable risk to take.

 

[Naval Aviation Fan]

Tulangi is quite near the equator, so not much difference between summer and winter. The internet says just under 11 1/2 hrs of daylight in May. Midway is slightly north of the equator and gets to about 13 1/2hrs in May.
So there should be enough time for another strike as long as the fleets aren't too far apart. The main limitation is whether or not they are confident of getting the aircraft back safely, but if the prize is big enough it would be worth risking a few ditched aircraft. A convincing win would allow a good chance to recover aircrew the following day, so this may be a reasonable risk to take.

I'm thinking that, if the first US attack on day two leaves both Z/S with messed up flight decks, while their own strikes are off hitting the US carriers, if they cannot make repairs, they lose all those planes, and some of the crews, and then there are no defending Zero's to interfere with the proposed second strike, and to my thinking Z/S are the best IJN carriers, so a huge loss if they can be sent to keep Shoho company on the ocean floor, if Midway still goes off (hopefully the Japanese believe they also took out 2 USN CV's), then ITTL, might all the KB be lost 6 months into the war?

 

[CT7834]

The only part about this I would even think about objecting to is the US side not missing the S/Z force on day one, and for lack of any other targets, just hammer the heck out of Shoho and company, while the IJN also makes the mistakes they did, and end up hitting Neosho/Sims rather than the US carriers, as both sides are doing this carrier vs carrier battle for the first time. If we had the historical mistakes on day one, Shoho and co are going to get many more attacks made on them by aircraft that were not available historically, and while I would want to error on the side of conservative strike results by Enterprise/Hornet on the first day, the mistakes they make on the invasion force, are lessons learned for the next days main event, as well as later on at Midway.

As I understand it, the Japanese force was far to the east, and so went undetected, while the Japanese thought the US carriers were to their south, rather than west, and so all their first days strike found were the two American ships.

Shokaku and Zuikaku went East. While Shoho and the Invasion convoy went down the Jomard Passage. Also. That's not to say Halsey would ignore Shoho entirely if he found Shoho and her escorts first (assuming the scout he sent out could tell the difference between a fleet and a light carrier). He would likely have her shadowed until the rest of the scouts reported back if there is no sign of Shokaku and Zuikaku. Then Halsey would send his planes after Shoho. So not only sinking her. But also, Aoba, Kinugasa, Furutaka and Kako as well. Assuming this all happens on 7 May.

Also, it would not just be Neosho. But Cimmaron and/or Sabine are acting as oilers for TF16. So a fair bit more to lose for the US if they were also lost.

Honestly, I'm not sure that the increased scouting is going to help, on the very first day of carrier vs carrier combat either side has ever had, as it is my thinking that both sides missed each others main forces because they had already passed the point of anything like a head on collision, and were already behind the other fellows main forces.

Halsey had 4 VS squadrons available to him. So he has more resources to send out for a more thorough search. Especially if he waits to the south of Guadalcanal, that depends on whether this timeline follows the original one.

Yep. Only thing I'm unsure about is, does the Zuikaku still remain hidden under the clouds, and thus ke[t from getting noticed while so many other planes are in the air and awaiting their turns to attack? With four carriers worth of aircraft, I'd like to think than both IJN carriers would get plastered at the very least like Shōkaku did historically, meaning essentially the end of Japanese carrier flight operations for the duration of the battle. Could the US carriers then get an afternoon strike off? they hit historically before noon, so a second strike could easily return to base, refuel and rearm and head back into battle in the early afternoon, and this is in May so...

Assuming both sides spot each other on 8 May. From what I understand, Zuikaku could hide in the cloud cover partly because of when Yorktown's strike arrived. The Dauntlesses were waiting for the Devastators to make a combined attack. Knowing Halsey, he would want the Air Groups to form up and then go. Saving time for coordination. Or send everything out in one massive wave. Either way, the chances of Zuikaku being hit are increased.

On 8 May, Yorktown and Lexington got their strikes off the deck between 0915 and 0925 hours. Yorktown attacked Shokaku at 1057 Hours, and Lexington attacked Shokaku and Zuikaku at 1130. Missing Zuikaku. Throw Enterprise and Hornet into the mix, and Shokaku is either sunk or a mangled wreck, with Zuikaku in a similar condition. Of course, given how old, slow and clunky the Devastator was and the unreliability of the Mark 13 Torpedo. Good luck to the VT Squadrons getting them.

I agree. I'm thinking that better/more AA and CAP equals fewer planes left to launch attacks, and if they then divide these fewer plans up among twice as many targets over OTL, then we should be seeing less hits than historically. I could be wrong of course, but if the Japanese want to sink the US carriers, massed attacks on two ships would seem to offer better chances of landing multiple hits on one ship, (and doing more severe damage) than just spreading their limited numbers and trying to "hit" all four carriers, and hope for doing light damage to all four.

The thing is that if the Strike was to take place on 8 May. As well as assuming Shokaku and Zuikaku take casualties from the messed up strike the night before. That's 18 Kates divided by four carriers. Equals 4.5 Kates per carrier. The issue for the Japanese is the CAP and AA would force the pilots to prioritise the closest carriers. Assuming for the sake of argument that it's Lexington and Yorktown. A hammer and anvil would be suicide in this scenario. One side would be trapped by the AA of the inboard escorts and the other carriers (depending on formation). The Val Dive Bombers may have an easier time getting above the AA and CAP and potentially damaging all four carriers. But USN AA in 1942 was already more effective when dealing with Dive Bombers, and a 550lb bomb alone isn't enough to stop a US Carrier. Finally, one thing going in the Japanese favour was that US fighter control was still developing.

I think that to be fair, all ships taking evasive action, at the same time, are going to cause confusion, but this may or may not be something the Japanese fliers can exploit, given the limited timeframe, and more fighters opposing them. For all I know, the increased fighters may mean that the entire attack gets disrupted, making coordinated attack runs harder.

It's a double edge sword. Lexington is far larger than the Yorktowns and combined with her battlecruiser origins. She can't turn as quickly or tightly. So she may get separated from Yorktown, Enterprise and Hornet. Making her more vulnerable to air attack. On the other hand, depending on where she is in the formation. The Kate and Val pilots may take longer to set up said attacks. Leaving them vulnerable to the CAP and AA.

I would, because of the starting positions on the first day, opinion that Shoho and co bear the full brunt of the US carriers strikes, while Neosho and Sims get the same, all due to the deployments having the opposing main forces in each others flanks, and both side being inexperienced on the first day of this kind of warfare.

This is based on if things follow the original timeline. Given how aggressive Halsey is, the battle may have started sooner.

If Lady Lex takes historical damage, hard to fault the guy for than, and if they knock out an extra carrier or two in the process...

King was Lexington's first captain. According to the Pacific War Encyclopedia, her loss is one of many reasons why he held a grudge against Fletcher. With Halsey, if Lex blew up on his watch, it might have a bit more ramifications as King used to serve as head of the Bureau of Aeronautics, and he was the one who recommended Halsey take command of Saratoga in 1935. Plus Commander, Aircraft Battle Force when Halsey was Carrier Division 2 (Yorktown and Enterprise)'s Commander. So King may have had higher expectations of Halsey compared to Fletcher. Of course, if Shokaku, Zuikaku and Shoho were all lost at the Coral Sea. Then he may be far more forgiving.

I'm thinking that, if the first US attack on day two leaves both Z/S with messed up flight decks, while their own strikes are off hitting the US carriers, if they cannot make repairs, they lose all those planes, and some of the crews, and then there are no defending Zero's to interfere with the proposed second strike, and to my thinking Z/S are the best IJN carriers, so a huge loss if they can be sent to keep Shoho company on the ocean floor, if Midway still goes off (hopefully the Japanese believe they also took out 2 USN CV's), then ITTL, might all the KB be lost 6 months into the war?

With 4 Carriers. Halsey has a greater ability to launch a second strike to sink Shokaku and either sink or badly damage Zuikaku. Of course, the aircraft returned between 1250 and 1430 hours, and Fitch had erroneously reported to Fletcher of 2 other Carriers in the original timeline. Causing Fletcher to believe He was outnumbered mistakenly. If the same report was given to Halsey, he may have withdrawn, but probably not as far and would send a scout to check. If nothing else, to see if it is true. Still, a follow-up strike would not be ready till 1500, given that Shokaku and Zuikaku would either be sunk or withdrawn. There may not be anything left to find.

Hara may report to Takagi (overall commander for the Port Moresby invasion) that two carriers were sunk and two more were damaged. Or if the pilots were either over-enthusiastic. He may report that all four carriers are sunk. If the Midway plan goes ahead, it may give Nimitz an advantage as Leyton and Rocheford will code break that the Japanese won't expect any more resistance than a reinforced garrison. So possibly no or lazily prepared submarine line. Plus, a worked-up Enterprise and Hornet. Means that Midway will end with Akagi, Kaga, Soryu and Hiryu on fire by 1030 hours on 4 June 1942. Ending the Battle of Midway in a decisive victory and Nimitz started Guadalcanal with 5-6 carriers. Assuming Lexington doesn't blow up and I-168 doesn't pick off Yorktown. Though these two would be under repairs for the latter half of 1942.

 

[Spencersj345.346]

Honestly got to wonder what happens with the torpedo hits that for some reason Lexington's Devastors scored on Shoho in otl due to the torps being a tad more reliable. Because if those are planted into either ship of car div 5.....they aren't likely making it home. And if Halsey gets curious why only 1 ship got any working torpedoes that went boom when they hit.....might blow up the torpedo scandal a lot earlier. Because he has the rank and prestige especially post this sort of battle to get someone to look into it for at least carrier torpedoes and if the sub commanders also mention they have problems ....Nimitiz and King will want heads to roll and the problems fixed.

 

[CT7834]

Honestly got to wonder what happens with the torpedo hits that for some reason Lexington's Devastors scored on Shoho in otl due to the torps being a tad more reliable. Because if those are planted into either ship of car div 5.....they aren't likely making it home. And if Halsey gets curious why only 1 ship got any working torpedoes that went boom when they hit.....might blow up the torpedo scandal a lot earlier. Because he has the rank and prestige especially post this sort of battle to get someone to look into it for at least carrier torpedoes and if the sub commanders also mention they have problems ....Nimitiz and King will want heads to roll and the problems fixed.

Assuming Shokaku and Zuikaku don't outrun the Mark 13 Torpedoes. They have a 34 Knot top speed compared to the Mark 13's 33 knots.
I am curious as to whether Halsey knew about the faults of Mark 13 earlier. As Enterprise's VT-6 ran into issues with torpedoing ships in the Marshall Islands raids.

 

[Spencersj345.346]

Assuming Shokaku and Zuikaku don't outrun the Mark 13 Torpedoes. They have a 34 Knot top speed compared to the Mark 13's 33 knots.
I am curious as to whether Halsey knew about the faults of Mark 13 earlier. As Enterprise's VT-6 ran into issues with torpedoing ships in the Marshall Islands raids.

If it's a classic anvil and hammer strike they shouldn't be able outrun all of them

 

[CT7834]

If it's a classic anvil and hammer strike they shouldn't be able outrun all of them

Assuming the attack was also coordinated with the Dauntlesses. 4 Carriers worth has a low escape chance.

 

[Spencersj345.346]

Assuming the attack was also coordinated with the Dauntlesses. 4 Carriers worth has a low escape chance.

Especially since they have enough fighters to tie down any cap and the AA screen wasn't well exactly that heavy

 

[Parmenion]

Hard to say IMO, it could go many ways depending on tactics and plain luck.

 

[Naval Aviation Fan]

Does anyone know if there was any doctrine to dive bomb ships before torpedoing them? Seems like that might be a thing to do, at least with respect to starting fires and blowing up some AA/AAA guns and gunners, making it harder to evade the fish.

 

[Parmenion]

Does anyone know if there was any doctrine to dive bomb ships before torpedoing them? Seems like that might be a thing to do, at least with respect to starting fires and blowing up some AA/AAA guns and gunners, making it harder to evade the fish.

I don't believe, at least at this early time, that the dive and torpedo bombers cooperated like that. They kept their tactics removed from eachother for the most part, but don't quote me on that

 

[CT7834]

Does anyone know if there was any doctrine to dive bomb ships before torpedoing them? Seems like that might be a thing to do, at least with respect to starting fires and blowing up some AA/AAA guns and gunners, making it harder to evade the fish.

From what I understood with USN doctrine. The dive bombers go in first to damage the ship, suppress AA and cause fires. Which distract the target from the Torpedo bombers when they make their runs.