Effects of a surviving Kingdom of Italy or successful reconquest by Justinian.

[ImperialxWarlord]

What effects would either of these three situations have:

1) The Ostrogoths never invade Italy or Odoacer defeats them.

2) A surviving Ostrogothic kingdom, perhaps Justinian doesn’t invade.

3) Justinian does invade the Ostrogoths but does it right and it goes as quickly and successful as in Africa.

What are the long term effects of this on Italy (and also Illyria I guess). Be it the language, culture, economy, and government?

 

[Alarik Von Erstien]

What effects would either of these three situations have:

1) The Ostrogoths never invade Italy or Odoacer defeats them.

2) A surviving Ostrogothic kingdom, perhaps Justinian doesn’t invade.

3) Justinian does invade the Ostrogoths but does it right and it goes as quickly and successful as in Africa.

What are the long term effects of this on Italy (and also Illyria I guess). Be it the language, culture, economy, and government?

We’ll all three have vastly different effects. Though the third is much different from the other two.

Since I know more about Justinian and his conquests than the other two here’s how I see it.

With Italy now under the Empire and as you said much better integrated that means it’s once again an Imperial province that can be taxed and administrated. As such I can see it over time becoming a very important province not only as a foothold into Europe but into the Mediterranean trade. Where once they had a large share of it they now dominate trade on the sea with their central position and control of many trade goods from the east.

We would also probably see a much more “Roman” Italy. By that I mean they either never lose their Roman identity or it’s lost much later on in history. (Of course you could argue they never did but do you see modern Italians calling themselves Roman’s outside of Rome?)

Anyways after a certain point it’s impossible to tell what would have happened. Maybe the extra administrative strain leads to an even quicker collapse of the empire, or maybe the new tax base and manpower pool allows them to hold onto their lands easier.

Hell maybe they completely pull a China and reconquer Europe over the centuries. I just don’t know.

 

[ImperialxWarlord]

We’ll all three have vastly different effects. Though the third is much different from the other two.

Since I know more about Justinian and his conquests than the other two here’s how I see it.

With Italy now under the Empire and as you said much better integrated that means it’s once again an Imperial province that can be taxed and administrated. As such I can see it over time becoming a very important province not only as a foothold into Europe but into the Mediterranean trade. Where once they had a large share of it they now dominate trade on the sea with their central position and control of many trade goods from the east.

We would also probably see a much more “Roman” Italy. By that I mean they either never lose their Roman identity or it’s lost much later on in history. (Of course you could argue they never did but do you see modern Italians calling themselves Roman’s outside of Rome?)

Anyways after a certain point it’s impossible to tell what would have happened. Maybe the extra administrative strain leads to an even quicker collapse of the empire, or maybe the new tax base and manpower pool allows them to hold onto their lands easier.

Hell maybe they completely pull a China and reconquer Europe over the centuries. I just don’t know.

That’s what I imagine too for that option. If it can be done right then Italy would be a benefit for the empire. Especially without the devastating war tying up resources and destroying the land. Althoug if it doesn’t pull a China and gradually retake the old lands I could see the western territories slip away eventually. Would certainly be interesting. I would also imagine that Illyria would not become Slavic and would stay a Romance language speaking region.

 

[kasumigenx]

We’ll all three have vastly different effects. Though the third is much different from the other two.

Since I know more about Justinian and his conquests than the other two here’s how I see it.

With Italy now under the Empire and as you said much better integrated that means it’s once again an Imperial province that can be taxed and administrated. As such I can see it over time becoming a very important province not only as a foothold into Europe but into the Mediterranean trade. Where once they had a large share of it they now dominate trade on the sea with their central position and control of many trade goods from the east.

We would also probably see a much more “Roman” Italy. By that I mean they either never lose their Roman identity or it’s lost much later on in history. (Of course you could argue they never did but do you see modern Italians calling themselves Roman’s outside of Rome?)

Anyways after a certain point it’s impossible to tell what would have happened. Maybe the extra administrative strain leads to an even quicker collapse of the empire, or maybe the new tax base and manpower pool allows them to hold onto their lands easier.

Hell maybe they completely pull a China and reconquer Europe over the centuries. I just don’t know.

A reconquest like this

Exarchate of Gaul (585-642) by LSCatilina on DeviantArt

www.deviantart.com

 

[Sarufiyyun]

What effects would either of these three situations have:

1) The Ostrogoths never invade Italy or Odoacer defeats them.

2) A surviving Ostrogothic kingdom, perhaps Justinian doesn’t invade.

3) Justinian does invade the Ostrogoths but does it right and it goes as quickly and successful as in Africa.

What are the long term effects of this on Italy (and also Illyria I guess). Be it the language, culture, economy, and government?

1) Odoacer works to chip away at Vandal rule in the remaining parts of Sicily, Corsica & Sardinia. More or less administers Italy in a manner not too different from his successor Theodoric the Great but without the ambition of establishing hegemony over the other Germanic kingdoms. When Odoacer does, there will be a civil war between Odoacer's sons Thela and Thassilo, his brother Onoulphus and his second-in-command Tufa. The Roman Senate might even nominate their own candidate to become King of Italy. Or another barbarian kingdom might swoop in. Or assuming if Romulus is still alive, he might ascend again to the purple.

2) The Ostrogoths gradually assimilate into Roman culture as they were IOTL. There might be a conversion to Catholicism much like their Visigothic cousins. At some point, an ambitious Ostrogothic King, with the approval of the Roman Senate, will crown himself Emperor of a newly restored western Empire. Italy remains undamaged.

3) The Plague of Justinian still ravages the Empire, though nowhere near as much. The Lombards invade, either succeeding at conquering some peripheral areas in the north.

 

[ImperialxWarlord]

1) Odoacer works to chip away at Vandal rule in the remaining parts of Sicily, Corsica & Sardinia. More or less administers Italy in a manner not too different from his successor Theodoric the Great but without the ambition of establishing hegemony over the other Germanic kingdoms. When Odoacer does, there will be a civil war between Odoacer's sons Thela and Thassilo, his brother Onoulphus and his second-in-command Tufa. The Roman Senate might even nominate their own candidate to become King of Italy. Or another barbarian kingdom might swoop in. Or assuming if Romulus is still alive, he might ascend again to the purple.

2) The Ostrogoths gradually assimilate into Roman culture as they were IOTL. There might be a conversion to Catholicism much like their Visigothic cousins. At some point, an ambitious Ostrogothic King, with the approval of the Roman Senate, will crown himself Emperor of a newly restored western Empire. Italy remains undamaged.

3) The Plague of Justinian still ravages the Empire, though nowhere near as much. The Lombards invade, either succeeding at conquering some peripheral areas in the north.

1) Outside of Sicily I’m not sure how successful they’d be at taking the islands from the vandals. As the issue of naval power would still be an issue. But I wouldn’t rule it out either. Not sure if I agree on the issue of his succession though. I mean we don’t know what the plan was obviously or if there were factions or if his brother or commander tufa sought the thrown. I personally think a civil war is unlikely as by the time Odoacer dies both might be dead. I also imagine that it wouldn’t be long before his descendants and his followers were romanized and entirely absorbed into Rome. But if such a thing happened it would be quite interesting to see the WRE reborn from a senatorial rebellion or even Romulus being acclaimed emperor. Would he ironic!

2) Definitely agree here. I’d wager that they’d assimilate and convert way faster than their eastern kin given that Italy is more populous and such. Hell wasnt the last Ostrogothic king before the invasion being raised as a Roman? Would once again be interesting to see the WRE reborn from this. I wonder if it would be seen as legitimate in the east and in any modern scholars minds.

3) If the Lombards still invade I don’t think they’d be very able to take much. Even with the plague they Roman’s would have had three decades to consolidate their rule again and raise armies and such.

 

[Sarufiyyun]

1) Outside of Sicily I’m not sure how successful they’d be at taking the islands from the vandals. As the issue of naval power would still be an issue. But I wouldn’t rule it out either. Not sure if I agree on the issue of his succession though. I mean we don’t know what the plan was obviously or if there were factions or if his brother or commander tufa sought the thrown. I personally think a civil war is unlikely as by the time Odoacer dies both might be dead. I also imagine that it wouldn’t be long before his descendants and his followers were romanized and entirely absorbed into Rome. But if such a thing happened it would be quite interesting to see the WRE reborn from a senatorial rebellion or even Romulus being acclaimed emperor. Would he ironic!

2) Definitely agree here. I’d wager that they’d assimilate and convert way faster than their eastern kin given that Italy is more populous and such. Hell wasnt the last Ostrogothic king before the invasion being raised as a Roman? Would once again be interesting to see the WRE reborn from this. I wonder if it would be seen as legitimate in the east and in any modern scholars minds.

3) If the Lombards still invade I don’t think they’d be very able to take much. Even with the plague they Roman’s would have had three decades to consolidate their rule again and raise armies and such.

In the first two scenarios, a Western imperial restoration is most certainly in the cards. I'd say Theodoric's long-term goal was to restore the Western Empire under the Goths.

I think the lands north of the Po could very be lost to the Lombards, even if everything went right and the Plague didn't do much damage to the Empire. They'll be a good buffer between the Byzantines and the Franks.

 

[NedStark]

3) If the Lombards still invade I don’t think they’d be very able to take much. Even with the plague they Roman’s would have had three decades to consolidate their rule again and raise armies and such.

I think the lands north of the Po could very be lost to the Lombards, even if everything went right and the Plague didn't do much damage to the Empire. They'll be a good buffer between the Byzantines and the Franks

One issue: If the Reconquest was quick, then Lombard mercenaries hired by the Romans might have never reached and seen Italy.

But if the Lombards were going to invade anyway due to Italy's perceived richness, then they would have invaded Italy regardless of whether it was under Byzantine or Gothic or Odoacer rule. In this case, Byzantine reconquest of Southern Italy behind either the Goths or Odoacer successors' back would have certainly occurred.

 

[ImperialxWarlord]

In the first two scenarios, a Western imperial restoration is most certainly in the cards. I'd say Theodoric's long-term goal was to restore the Western Empire under the Goths.

I think the lands north of the Po could very be lost to the Lombards, even if everything went right and the Plague didn't do much damage to the Empire. They'll be a good buffer between the Byzantines and the Franks.

I definitely agree it’s in the cards. If it doesn’t happen because of a Roman noble then it’ll happen when one of the either two Germanic monarchies are sick of being a Rex and want to one up their Germanic neighbors. That is unless Theodoric’s descendants don’t conquers them in true in Roman form.

I still don’t agree here because they only got to conquer so much because Italy was wrecked and the empire as a whole was weak and distracted for decades. Even then they couldn’t take it all. An Italy that is retaken quickly has decades to recover. Even with the plague it would’ve been too strong to take imo.

 

[CommieScum]

Rome stays a great city on par with Milan

 

[Basileus_Komnenos]

Rome stays a great city on par with Milan

Well Mediolanum in otl was brutally sacked by the Goths while Rome was spared. Rome as an urban polity collapsed later beginning with the reign of Justin II where the Lombards invaded Italy. Though its not really clear if they invaded as part of a desire for conquest, or a botched attempt by the Roman government to try and reach a compromise with them and settle them in Italy.

Rome during the reign of Constans II was not treated very well. Constans II was intially very warmly welcomed as the Emperor personally visiting was a huge deal, but instead of lavishing the city with honors, or contributing much to it, he basically stripped it of anything valuable as part of allocating finances to fix the Empire's fiscal crisis (thanks to war with the Arabs) and his ongoing campaign against the Lombard Dukes in Southern Italy,

If it doesn’t happen because of a Roman noble then it’ll happen when one of the either two Germanic monarchies are sick of being a Rex and want to one up their Germanic neighbors. That is unless Theodoric’s descendants don’t conquers them in true in Roman form.

Well that depends if the Romans reconquer region or not. Plus even if Theoderic was able to unite the Gothic nations under his suzerainty, he still was scared of the East. While it was busy dealing with threats on the Danube and the Eastern frontier, when it got its act together it was a force to be feared.

After all just look at the reign of Emperor Leo. He put together one of the largest naval operations in antiquity and would have almost certainly annihilated the Vandal Kingdom had it not been for the sheer idiocy and incompetence of Basilliscus.

And even if these Kingdoms united and got too large for Constantinople to safely crush with military force, they have other means. The Romans could literally throw money and arms at their enemies which was one of their favorite tactics (the Chinese used a similar tactics against the various steppe tribes to prevent them from unifying). They did this when Odoacer got too high and mighty prompting the Emperor to send Theoderic to crush him. Emperor Manuel did this against Frederick Barbarossa who was consolidating Hohenstaufen Rule in Italy and successfully bankrolled the Lombard League with funds and arms. The later Emperor Michael VIII Palaiologos did something similar when he orchestrated the war of Sicilian Vespers taking Charles of Anjou down a peg leaving the Kingdom of Sicily permanently fractured into two bitter rivals.

 

[NotAMyth]

In the first two scenarios, a Western imperial restoration is most certainly in the cards. I'd say Theodoric's long-term goal was to restore the Western Empire under the Goths.

I think the lands north of the Po could very be lost to the Lombards, even if everything went right and the Plague didn't do much damage to the Empire. They'll be a good buffer between the Byzantines and the Franks.

I doubt the goths are capable of achieving any kind of long-term goals. The speed with which the Vandals, the Ostrogoths and the Visigoths fell shows the fundamental weakness of the dual administration that these kingdoms had.
Roman centralization combined with their internal aristocratic strife meant that in moments of crisis a couple of defeats could dismantle the whole system.
The repeated fracturing of the power bases and the decentralization the Franks suffered due to the Salic law actually spared them this issue. No one was going to wipe them off in a single campaign.

 

[CommieScum]

Rome as an urban polity collapsed later beginning with the reign of Justin II

"The Gothic Wars, and in particular the siege, had a disastrous effect on the population of the city. By one estimate the population declined by 90% to around 30,000 by the year 550. Of the original 13 aqueducts only two remained functional, and the populated area was 10% of that at its peak."

Siege of Rome (537–538) - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

 

[ImperialxWarlord]

Well that depends if the Romans reconquer region or not. Plus even if Theoderic was able to unite the Gothic nations under his suzerainty, he still was scared of the East. While it was busy dealing with threats on the Danube and the Eastern frontier, when it got its act together it was a force to be feared.

After all just look at the reign of Emperor Leo. He put together one of the largest naval operations in antiquity and would have almost certainly annihilated the Vandal Kingdom had it not been for the sheer idiocy and incompetence of Basilliscus.

And even if these Kingdoms united and got too large for Constantinople to safely crush with military force, they have other means. The Romans could literally throw money and arms at their enemies which was one of their favorite tactics (the Chinese used a similar tactics against the various steppe tribes to prevent them from unifying). They did this when Odoacer got too high and mighty prompting the Emperor to send Theoderic to crush him. Emperor Manuel did this against Frederick Barbarossa who was consolidating Hohenstaufen Rule in Italy and successfully bankrolled the Lombard League with funds and arms. The later Emperor Michael VIII Palaiologos did something similar when he orchestrated the war of Sicilian Vespers taking Charles of Anjou down a peg leaving the Kingdom of Sicily permanently fractured into two bitter rivals.

What do you mean by “it depends on if the Roman’s reconquer the region or not”? I’m quite aware of the power and strength the east possessed and that (as we saw) it and when it turns west the various kingdoms wouldn't be powerful enough to stop them. I know this. The whole point of 2/3 of this post is what if that doesn’t happen. Either odoacer repels the ostrogoths/they never invade or eastern empire never invades the Ostrogoths.
doesn't happen and either the