The Russian War In Ukraine is IMO the biggest geopolitical blunder of the 21st Century so far, even beating out the War On Terror. If Russia loses in Ukraine, they will have spent hundreds of billions of dollars and lost tens of thousands of their already scarce young men for nothing, while permanently burning the bridge to their extremely culturally similar neighbors, who will never trust a thing coming from Moscow again.
Even if Russia wins the military conflict and annexes Eastern Ukraine, they’ll have permanently torched their country’s reputation in The West, giving them little choice but to become second fiddle to Beijing. The fact that Ukraine didn’t permanently hate Russia for the Holodomor is surprising, but they sure as hell will now. Ukraine’s national identity from 2022 onward will be built off of opposition to Russia, and the best Russia can hope for with Ukraine going forward will be something like present day UK-Ireland relations, where the hatchet has been buried but resentment over the past still lingers. Russia’s days as a great power are over, and any relevance Russia still has is due to their nuclear arsenal left over from the Soviet era and their oil industry. Russia without nukes would at most be a regional power and at least be a colder version of Brazil or Mexico.
As for Ukraine, the war will be a nation-defining event. If there was any doubt about Ukraine being fully separate and distinct from Russia before 2022, there certainly isn’t any now. If Ukraine wins, the war will be seen in 100 years (if Ukraine still exists, which is a big if, considering Ukraine’s apocalyptic demographics) the same way Canadians see the War of 1812, the time they successfully defended themselves from their larger, similar neighbor who viewed their territory as an extension of their own.
This would apply doubly so in Eastern Ukraine, where the mainly Russian-speaking populace who wanted strong ties with their colinguists while remaining politically separate were greeted instead by their homes being bombed and children being abducted. If Russia wins, expect a never-ending insurgency funded openly by Ukraine and covertly by NATO.
With that said, I do understand why Russia views it as essential to have Ukraine within their sphere of influence. Most of Ukraine was, after all, part of Russia for centuries, whether under the Tsars or Soviets, and while Russian irredentists are wrong to say that Russian and Ukrainian are the same language, they’re part of the same branch of the same language family, like Spanish and Portuguese. Unlike Portugal in that comparison, modern Ukrainian statehood is quite new, as apart from
a brief period just after WW1 Ukraine has been under foreign rule for more than half a millennium, whether it be the Russians, Poles or Austrians. In that way they’re more like Catalonia or Scotland than Portugal. While thinking that Russophone Ukrainians would view Russian troops as liberators was definitely misjudging the situation (there’s no quicker way to make someone hate you than invasion), it was an easy one to make that was by no means unique to Putin and his inner circle (I recall there being old WW3 simulation videos on YouTube where Ukraine fights alongside Russia). From a pure geopolitical perspective, Ukraine is a large country with a long border with Russia, which if it were to join NATO and/or the EU would almost fully box Russia out of Europe and bring the border between it and The West ever closer to Moscow, less than 300 miles at its closest point. Thus, from the Kremlin’s perspective, Ukraine as a state tied to Russia is an absolute must.
A war of annexation is the last thing they should’ve done.
Before 2014, Russia and Ukraine were on fairly good terms. In 2012, a decade before the invasion, 86% of Ukrainians had positive views of Russia and 68% of Russians had positive views of Ukraine. Even in late 2021 a few months before the invasion, 3/4ths of Ukrainians held positive views of the Russian public, though not of the government (keep in mind that
I got the polls from Wikipedia, so take it with a grain of salt). In 2011 half of Ukrainians stated that they had relatives living in Russia, and the number of Russians with Ukrainian ancestors likely stands in the millions. Russia had
a lease on the Naval Base of Sevastopol until the 2040s before the annexation of Crimea, securing their presence in the Black Sea. Russian and Ukrainian troops
marched side by side on Victory Day in 2010, which would become unimaginable only a few years later.
The regional divide in Ukraine between the pro-EU west and pro-Russian east was a major political issue in Ukraine before 2014 and to a lesser extent up to 2022, to the point where it was speculated that the country might split of its own free will. Russia could’ve very easily taken a softer approach towards Ukraine, emphasizing their shared roots in the medieval Rus, common Orthodox faith and cultural conservatism, since Russians and Ukrainians have (or had prior to 2022) similar opinions on social issues.
NOPE, instead they decide to snatch Crimea (which, as mentioned earlier, they had a lease on the main port in), set up an insurgency in the east and all in all begin acting domineering. Being overly heavy handed when it comes to foreign policy is what I notice to be a mistake Russia continually makes, whether it be Hungary in 1956, Czechoslovakia in 1968 or Ukraine since 2014. I get being overly militaristic when you have to defend your homeland from the Mongols or Tatars, but one can’t just go “HULK SMASH” when the steppe nomads are long gone and a very formalized system of international rules are in place. While Ukraine was trying to make itself more distinct from Russia, something that is definitely an easy task today but wasn’t until the last decade, making Russian co-official with Ukrainian would’ve been a wise move IMO due to the sheer number of Russian speakers in the country. With that said, they’re not the ones to blame here. I have tried not to speak in a moralizing tone in this segment, since I find it cringe and obnoxious (even from people I agree with like pro-lifers), yeah, this one is on The Kremlin. The history of the East Slavs since WW1 has been one unending
tragedy, and this is yet another chapter in that depressing tale.