Even more deadly Bubonic Plague

[colonel]

Suppose the mortality rate of the Black Death was even higher then in OTL, such that by 1400 populations are reduced by 90% in Europe, 75% in Northern Africa and over 60 % in Asia. This would certainly delay the Renaissance, and the oceanic explorations of Spain, Portugal and the rest of Europe. Indeed at a 90% mortality rate it is likely the Church and most feudal institutions in Europe would totally collapse. Could the affected areas begin to recover within a century? More interesting, how would the civilizations in Sub-Saharan Africa, the Pacific and the Americas develop with a long delay in any significant European contact?

 

[Mildtryth]

Suppose the mortality rate of the Black Death was even higher then in OTL, such that by 1400 populations are reduced by 90% in Europe, 75% in Northern Africa and over 60 % in Asia. This would certainly delay the Renaissance, and the oceanic explorations of Spain, Portugal and the rest of Europe. Indeed at a 90% mortality rate it is likely the Church and most feudal institutions in Europe would totally collapse. Could the affected areas begin to recover within a century? More interesting, how would the civilizations in Sub-Saharan Africa, the Pacific and the Americas develop with a long delay in any significant European contact?

Delay is quite the understatement - at the scenario you described, the most likely is that without the Church, what remains of knowledge of classical antiquity is lost entirely, since there'll be nobody left to copy the texts, consequently the Latin alphabet ends up going the way of Linear B, recovery would probably take many more centuries than it did OTL, and most cities would probably be entirely abandoned.

And of course, since with these smaller death rates, the Muslims would recover sooner, they'd be well-poised to start moving on Europe again in a couple centuries' time - considering that it wouldn't be just territorial expansion but slave-raiding too going on, all that will probably retard European recovery even more, so at the second-worst case scenario, you end up with Europeans pretty much suffering the same fate as the Indians did OTL in America.

 

[holycookie]

Suppose the mortality rate of the Black Death was even higher then in OTL, such that by 1400 populations are reduced by 90% in Europe, 75% in Northern Africa and over 60 % in Asia. This would certainly delay the Renaissance, and the oceanic explorations of Spain, Portugal and the rest of Europe. Indeed at a 90% mortality rate it is likely the Church and most feudal institutions in Europe would totally collapse.

basically the death rate of natives in the new world?

Could the affected areas begin to recover within a century?

It took 200 years for population levels to recover. In this case it will take something around 600 years at least for the population to return to what it was.

More interesting, how would the civilizations in Sub-Saharan Africa, the Pacific and the Americas develop with a long delay in any significant European contact?

I tend to believe that there will not be a huge change, America was in a continuous cycle of fall and rise of empires. But probably when the Europeans arrive the mortality rate will be even higher if the diseases are going to be so aggressive in the old world (something around 99.99% morality.), sub-Saharan Africa will lose a huge economic partner in the middle east and iberia (in addition to the loss of imports from more refined producers). Pacific will be developing slowly as well as wel. The lack of contact with Europe, the Middle East and Asia (the centers of civilization) will hinder the scientific advancement of these people.
Probably the vast majority of civilizations collapse and in about 800 years the world works again, differently, but it will.

 

[twovultures]

Isn't this the POD of Kim Stanley Robinson's Years of Rice and Salt?

Anyway, Europe will probably go through a complete cultural collapse. We're talking something similar to the Native Americans on the East Coast IOTL, where entire cultures and languages are just wiped off the map, with the few survivors merging to form new groups. North Africa isn't much better, they have a little more to start over with and because of that a better chance for more cultural continuity, but most of what we would call 'civilization' will just cease to be.

Most of North Africa will be nomadic or semi-nomadic tribes, even on the fertile coastal plains of the Maghreb. The Egyptians will be able to enjoy a brief time of farming abundant and empty fertile land without an elite taxing them to death, but eventually invaders will either create a new state or defending against invaders will force the Egyptians to create a state.

Asia may be able to avoid complete cultural collapse, and any surviving states will probably focus on 'recolonizing' their mostly emptied pre-plague land. Of course, this assumes that the cultural shock post-plague doesn't result in massive wars within and between those states that prevent them from reconstituting themselves-I can't see massive deaths from the plague doing the situation in late-stage Yuan China any good.

Sub-Saharan Africa also sees societal collapse in areas like the Sahel and the Swahili coast, as the trade which sustained their civilizations goes away. They probably revert to more egalitarian, decentralized societies for a while.

 

[holycookie]

Isn't this the POD of Kim Stanley Robinson's Years of Rice and Salt?

Not that I know of, because the Middle East doesn't suffer that much in the book. What I think that would have happened is basically a civilizational reset that would set the world back a thousand years.

 

[Mildtryth]

I tend to believe that there will not be a huge change, America was in a continuous cycle of fall and rise of empires. But probably when the Europeans arrive the mortality rate will be even higher if the diseases are going to be so aggressive in the old world (something around 99.99% morality.),

With the original premise, i think it's more likely that contact of Eurasia with America, if it does ever happen, will probably be initiated by the Chinese or the Muslims.

 

[holycookie]

With the original premise, i think it's more likely that contact of Eurasia with America, if it does ever happen, will probably be initiated by the Chinese or the Muslims.

Maybe, but 75% of your population is not an easy thing to recover from. What would be the reason for exploration of the Altantic Ocean by the Muslims, they already have a good path to China. China doesn't need to explore anywhere because the world's merchants go to China to buy their products.

 

[JanWellem]

In Europe, when all is said and done, Poland, around which the plague for one reason or a nother seems to have taken a detour, will rule supreme from the Elbe to the Volga and from the Baltic to the Black Sea. In Italy Milan, which through an extremely rigorous quarantine managed to largely keep the plague out, will rule at least northern Italy.

 

[Mildtryth]

Maybe, but 75% of your population is not an easy thing to recover from. What would be the reason for exploration of the Altantic Ocean by the Muslims, they already have a good path to China. China doesn't need to explore anywhere because the world's merchants go to China to buy their products.

That's why i said if it does ever happen.

 

[Alex Zetsu]

Delay is quite the understatement - at the scenario you described, the most likely is that without the Church, what remains of knowledge of classical antiquity is lost entirely, since there'll be nobody left to copy the texts, consequently the Latin alphabet ends up going the way of Linear B,

But he said only a 90% mortality rate. With even 1/3000 of Europeans surviving, shouldn't it be possible reminants of the Church are able to hang on to teach Latin (and the bible)? The top-down Pope-centric structure probably has to be loosened since local pockets of survivors aren't going to be getting much word from Rome even with a 90% mortality, but I think even with a mortality rate even higher the Church would still remain in some form.