France Stays In

On June 16, 1940, the French government decided to continue the war from exile in Algeria. The French military was ordered to evacuate the country. On September 9, 1940, the defeated French and their Commonwealth allies scored a victory when the forced Italy to surrender Libya. Hitler decided not to rescue the Italians in Libya. During the Second Phony War,the European Theater would be a naval and air war with no ground combat, until June 22, 1941, when the Germans invades the USSR. The US would enter the war after the Japanese attack on September 7, 1941. Italy and Germany would declare war on the September 11, 1941. On August 8, 1942, US forces arrived in Europe as the Allies invaded Sicily. On August 22, 1942, Mussolini was overthrown. On August 30, 1942, the Allies reached an Armistice with the new Italian government. After Germans attacked Italian forces Italy declared war on Germany on September 1, 1942. The last German forces surrendered on Sicily on September 17, 1942. Germany, however, who had been sending troops to defend Italy for two years was able to take control of the Italian mainland. The Italian government was forced to flee Rome on September 19, 1942. Progress was slow in Italy. Allied forces landed at Anzio on March 13, 1943, and began months of frustrating fighting. Rome was finally liberated on September 12, 1943, but the Germans still controlled much of the Italian peninsula

Much more successful was the Invasion of Normandy on July 10, 1943 or D Day. The Western Allies took Prague on May 4, 1944, and met Soviet troops in Poland on May 13, 1944. Hitler committed suicide on May 26, 1944. The Germans would surrender on June 6, 1944, or VE Day. The war in the Pacific would still go on. It began in 1941, the Japanese in China had advanced to the border of French Indo China, with hopes of cutting off French supplies to the Chinese. A border incident led to a declaration of war by France and Britain against Japan on June 30, 1941. On September 7, 1941,Japan attacked British, French and American territory. The Japanese advance was stopped with the Battle of the Bismarck Archipelago on May 4-5 1942 and the Battle of Midway on June 4, 1942. By that time, the Japanese had conquered Thailand, French Indo China, Hong Kong. most of the Dutch East Indies, the Philippines, Guam, Wake Island, the Marshall Islands, the Gilbert Islands, the Solomon Islands and The Bismarck Archipelago. The one place where the Japanese met frustration was the British colonies of Burma, British Borneo and Malaya. The controlled the Northern coastline of Papua New Guinea but were locked in fighting with Commonwealth forces in the interior, The lull in the fighting in Europe had allowed the British to build up their defenses. They had even occupied Sumatra so they could preserve the supply line to Malaya. In May 1942,Americans joined the Commonwealth forces defending New Guinea and arrived to assist in Burma and Malaya. The last Japanese forces from New Guinea were defeated on November 21, 1943. US forces returned to the Philippines, when they landed at Leyte on January 26, 1943. The Japanese had transferred many of the troops that had occupied the Philippines to the Malay and Burma fronts, so the Americans were able to make steady progress liberating Manilla on March 17, 1943. The next important operation in the Pacific came in May 1943, when Thailand surrendered. In June 1943, the Allies were able to begin an invasion of French Indo China. On May 25, 1944, the Allies had secured the last Japanese forces in the Dutch East Indies, By July, most of the Allied South East Asian veterans were transferred to China. The Allies showed success in the Central Pacific Allied forces landed in the Gilbert and Marshall Islands in August 1943. The conquest of the Mariana Islands came in March 1944. In June 1944, the Allies began using these islands to bomb the Japanese home islands. Allies won the Battle of Iwo Jima on November 11, 1944. They won the victory on Okinawa ( January 1-February 10, 1945). The Soviet Union declared war on Japan and invaded Manchukuo on September 6, 1944. In early October WAllied and Soviet forces would meet south of Beijing. That same month Commonwealth and US European veterans entered the Pacific Theater. The forces from Europe also dramatically increased the bombing and blockade of Japan. The Allies were able to devastate the Japanese infrastructure and seal Japan off from the rest of the world. This dramatically depressed the Japanese economy and caused chronic shortages. There was also the tensions between the rural population and the evacuated city residents. Fearing a revolt Emperor Hirohito decided to surrender and ended the war on February 15th, 1945.

This TL would cause changes in some parts of the world. Charles DeGaulle may have become a hero but would not be the hero. He would not dominate post war French politics. There would probably be no-one to lead a change in constitutions in 1958. France would probably still be in the Third Republic. Poland would have been split into two nations from 1945 until they voted to reunite in 1990. Czechoslovakia would end in a not so velvet divorce in late 1945. China would be like Germany and Korea a country divided by the Cold War. North China, Soviet occupied Manchura and Inner Mongolia would be a Soviet satellite. Moscow would veto the Great Leap Forward and the Cultural Revolution. They would support Deng and his efforts to bring free enterprise to China and make it less dependent on Soviet aid. North evolves into a capitalist country like OTL. The Republic of China or South China, would be the host of a large number of US Military bases and would dependent on US aid, until the 1970s. In that decade foreign investors taking advantage of cheap labor and would industrialized South China. The large South Chinese middle class leads a drive for democracy in the late 1980s. The North Chinese dictatorship has to work hard to suppress a large movement to reunite China among the prosperous North Chinese population, who are knowledgable of the outside world. In 2011, the unification movement inspired by the Arab Spring took to the streets. On November 12, 2011 after months of disruptive demonstrations and strike and pressure from the business community, the people of North China voted in a referendum overwhelmingly for reunification. On May 15, 2012, the People’s Republic of China ended. During most of its post war history, the USSR would have had endured the financial burden of aiding and occupying North China. The also would have had to pay the expenses of suppling East Germany by sea. One nation not divided is Vietnam. The WAllies liberated most of Indo China. Ho does not end the war in control of as much of the country as he did OTL. He does not have a source of supplies from a friendly neighbor. After France gives independence to Vietnam, later than OTL. Vietnam uses American military aid to fight the Communist guerillas. It does not escalate to a full scale war. There is no need for US troops. In addition to avoiding the Vietnam War, there are other smaller changes in the US. FDR lives to see the end of the war. He may have lived longer, free from wartime stress. The atomic bomb would have been a military secret until 1949, when the Soviets announced they had one. There would not be a very large American military presence in Germany. Most of the OTL German military bases would have built in the front line states of the Czech Republic and West Poland. If you are the child of a German and a member of the American Armed Forces, ITTL you have a different heritage.
 
I don't see how this changes the lineup of presidents.

A change this dramatic will cause butterflies. For example, you've moved up the timeline of the Japanese attacking Pearl Harbor (...not sure why, BTW). This could mean that, for example, Ike doesn't rise to become Supreme Allied Commander, or Nixon is killed on a submarine, or another person who came to nothing OTL becomes a war hero and wins the presidency. All of these change the line-up, and with it the mind of the country, and with it, the probability of Barack Obama winning the presidency (or even being interested in politics or even being alive!).
 
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Pretty plausible TL.

Some thoughts:
1) September 9th seems very early to take Libya. In this TL there would be no reason the Italians would attack anywhere, including Egypt, British Somalia-land or Greece. It would take some time for French forces evacuated under fire to reorganize.
2) Would a Battle of Britain take place as OTL? There would be little chance of Britain negotiating under the changed political conditions and the naval balance is even worse than OTL. More likely the Germans do a more strategic mine the ports type of air battle vs a prep for invasion type of air battle. There might be significant more air power available for Barbarossa plus the German barge traffic might not have been disrupted as OTL.
3) Would the Germans offer the Spanish everything they could ever want to come in? All of Morocco, part of Algeria, a slice of Southern France. OTL Vichy considerations had to come in, not so here.
4) The German occupation of France could be far more brutal than OTL without the need to mediate with Vichy, perhaps more like the German occupation of Poland.
 
3) Would the Germans offer the Spanish everything they could ever want to come in? All of Morocco, part of Algeria, a slice of Southern France. OTL Vichy considerations had to come in, not so here. Interesting that could happen.
4) The German occupation of France could be far more brutal than OTL without the need to mediate with Vichy, perhaps more like the German occupation of Poland. There are more and more intense partisan activity. The liberation of France goes faster.
 
Pretty plausible TL.

Some thoughts:
1) September 9th seems very early to take Libya. In this TL there would be no reason the Italians would attack anywhere, including Egypt, British Somalia-land or Greece. It would take some time for French forces evacuated under fire to reorganize.

There was already a lot of French Forces in NA. IIRC in Tunisia alone there was as much troops as there was in Tripolitania. Add to that the double in Algeria, and as much in Morocco. And far more artillery. And far more (actual) tanks. Also the Italians had large supply problems (IIRC there was only a few dozen AT guns in Lybia with a few hundred shells.)

2) Would a Battle of Britain take place as OTL? There would be little chance of Britain negotiating under the changed political conditions and the naval balance is even worse than OTL. More likely the Germans do a more strategic mine the ports type of air battle vs a prep for invasion type of air battle. There might be significant more air power available for Barbarossa plus the German barge traffic might not have been disrupted as OTL.

FTL posit a parallel Battle of Britain and Battle of Tunisia. Air power would be reduced in Barbarossa due to Luftwaffe prisoners not being released in 1940 (among them there were quite a few aces).

3) Would the Germans offer the Spanish everything they could ever want to come in? All of Morocco, part of Algeria, a slice of Southern France. OTL Vichy considerations had to come in, not so here.

Spain was almost starving at that point, completely reliant on importations of food (and other stuff) and would be unable to defend it's colonies. Franco was probably the least stupid of the reactionary dictators. He wouldn't attack the allies to gain a rock and lose an empire.

4) The German occupation of France could be far more brutal than OTL without the need to mediate with Vichy, perhaps more like the German occupation of Poland.

Don't think they could. France in OTL represented on fifth of the Reich industrial output after being pillaged and sabotaged. They would need everything they can. Occupation would be worse but not Poland like.
 
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2) Would a Battle of Britain take place as OTL? There would be little chance of Britain negotiating under the changed political conditions and the naval balance is even worse than OTL. More likely the Germans do a more strategic mine the ports type of air battle vs a prep for invasion type of air battle. There might be significant more air power available for Barbarossa plus the German barge traffic might not have been disrupted as OTL.

Germans have three choices. 1. Attack both Britian & N Africa. This splits their air force & place a portion at the end of a extended supply route.

2. Concentrate vs Africa. That places more aircraft & ground support at the end of a extended supply route. there is also a question of if the Italian airfields existing in Sicilly & Sardinia can support that many aircraft.

3. Concentrate vs Britain. This has a shorter & more robust supply route, & we know from OTL there are enough airfields in place. It is also attractive from the June PoV of the Germans in that defeating Britain will leave France already defeated & near helpless. Conversely defeating France in Africa leaves Britain still undefeated. So one campaign vs 'England' may end the war, while attacking Africa risks two campaigns.

3) Would the Germans offer the Spanish everything they could ever want to come in? All of Morocco, part of Algeria, a slice of Southern France. OTL Vichy considerations had to come in, not so here.
4) The German occupation of France could be far more brutal than OTL without the need to mediate with Vichy, perhaps more like the German occupation of Poland.[/QUOTE]
 
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