German Spring Offensive succeeds-how does President Wilson react?

[cjc]

2 million in 18 months on 400 leaky tubs.

Additional 3 million for 1919?

The Emergency Shipbuilding Corporation built 230 wooden steam ships at 2,300 GRT each. These ships could transport 500 men apiece.

That is 100,000 men a month.

Hog Island built 122 of 180 planned transports rated to carry 2,500 troops apiece.

That is 305,000 men a month.

The USG seized 400 existent US ships rated to at least Hog Island transport capacity.

That is 1,000,000 men a month.

1,405,000 men a month x 6= 8,430,000 men.

Thankyou, I knew us admergincy ship building was happening but now I actually have some numbers.

When did the goalposts of our conversation shift from manpower to supplies?

The total German Army strength on the Western Front on 11 November 1918 was 3,562,000. The frontline rifle strength committed up front was actually 866,000 as you can see from the graph.

I dopt that, the Americans didn't plan to have more then 36% manpower in rear line tasks and never during the course of the war got above 32% so 3,200,000 to 3,400,000 frount line strength.

And could they sustain another 3 million?
That's the question.


Weird how they didn't even come close to reaching 5 million then.
I don't know if you saw it, because i edited it in, so i will repeat it:
- This is from Wiki:
Whereas American shipping had averaged the delivery of 148,000 soldiers per month to the European Theater of Operations (ETO) during the wartime build-up, the post VE-Day rush homeward would average more than 435,000 GIs per month for the next 14 months.
So tripple the WW2 rate, and you still can't do it in a year.

That may have something to doe with the fact that most of this construction happened DURING 1918 so there for wouldn't have been available in spring 1918 but perfectly available by late 1918, as seen by the fact that American troop numbers were increasing rapidly (up to about 250,000 a month by November and 500,000 by February)

1. The US troops in France were sustained by France. That means practically everything combat user related besides rifles, some trucks some railroad equipment and the clothes on their backs. The French armed, trained and FED those troops after the half-mob reached the French ports. If it went bang or ratatat, the odds were, it was a French weapon or French made to American specs in FRANCE in 1917-1918. Even the chickens being plucked to make chicken stew were French.
2. The emergency ship program numbers I gave are official USG figures for what lift they built, seized and planned.

It should be noted that France is going to struggle to keep her own army aquiped thanks to the Paris factory going quiet so the new American forces are going to have to start relying on American factorys for there equipment, wich is going to use up a lot ships, but as you showed earlier America should have the excess cappasaty for this by late 1918.

 

[McPherson]

I've had the misfortune to now READ Zabecki. After the fiasco with how he describes Amiens and the way he imagines "The Paris Guns" worked, I stick him into the same scholarship bin as Mitsuo Fuchida.

 

[Cymry-Korean]

I've had the misfortune to now READ Zabecki. After the fiasco with how he describes Amiens and the way he imagines "The Paris Guns" worked, I stick him into the same scholarship bin as Mitsuo Fuchida.

Ouch. Midway the Battle that Doomed Japan is infamous for a reason. I haven't read Zabecki but I have to question how it could be that bad. Fuchida seems to have straight up lied about aspects of the battle.

 

[kham_coc]

That may have something to doe with the fact that most of this construction happened DURING 1918 so there for wouldn't have been available in spring 1918 but perfectly available by late 1918, as seen by the fact that American troop numbers were increasing rapidly (up to about 250,000 a month by November and 500,000 by February)

The figure quoted is from November 1918. 3.1 million in two months is ludicrous.

It should be noted that France is going to struggle to keep her own army aquiped thanks to the Paris factory going quiet so the new American forces are going to have to start relying on American factorys for there equipment, wich is going to use up a lot ships, but as you showed earlier America should have the excess cappasaty for this by late 1918.

Okay, so now the US magically has the capacity to replace the UK merchant marine, ship orders of magnitude more people than they did OTL, and supply them, something they didn't have to do OTL - This reads as well as Japan conquering Hawaii.

 

[kham_coc]

Horses pulled German artillery and ammunition wagons. That is support of the infantry attack. Part of the sustainment.

Which has nothing to do with what we are talking about.

The plans were made partly on the assumption that AMERICAN infantry would be present in strength to overwhelm the Germans.

With Bowie knives? See modern armies requires supplies, you know, Food, Ammunition, Artillery support, Clothes, Timber, Rail, I would go on, but i don't think it would make a difference.

http://www.alternatewars.com/WW1/Fuller_1919.htm

Still has nothing to do with what we are talking about.
Generally it's seen as good manners to stick to the topic at hand, but it's sort of required to stay on the topic you are talking about.
helpful hint, it's about US; And allied, Capacity to transport and supply 5 million Americans in France, things not on topic, anything to do with Germany.

 

[cjc]

Ouch. Midway the Battle that Doomed Japan is infamous for a reason. I haven't read Zabecki but I have to question how it could be that bad. Fuchida seems to have straight up lied about aspects of the battle.

Trust me zabecki isn't bad, and his veamins about it is making question his numbers from earlier.

The figure quoted is from November 1918. 3.1 million in two months is ludicrous.


Okay, so now the US magically has the capacity to replace the UK merchant marine, ship orders of magnitude more people than they did OTL, and supply them, something they didn't have to do OTL - This reads as well as Japan conquering Hawaii.

You do realize that America did replace the UK merchant marin post war, and managed to land more troops with far heavier supply requirements in ww2.

 

[kham_coc]

You do realize that America did replace the UK merchant marin post war, and managed to land more troops with far heavier supply requirements in ww2.

Again, we are talking about 1918.
Not 1944.
And, again, the growth post the spring offensives certainly represented maximum effort by the UK, meaning it almost certainly would have taken the entirety of 1919 to reach 5 million. (Time they do not have ittl).

 

[McPherson]

Yes we are. An incompetent army managed to transport 2 million men in about a year.

In March 1918 there were about 250,000. By November there were almost 2,000,000. 9 months. And that was BEFORE the Emergency Shipping Program delivered about 500 hulls.

Source: http://www.gwpda.org/docs/statistics/stats1-4.htm

and

American soldiers arrive in France

Did you know that American soldiers first began arriving in France on 26th June 1917, to fight in the First World War? Although the plot orchestrated earlier in the year by German Foreign Secretary Arthur Zimmerman to pit Mexico against America had spectacularly failed to keep the United States...

www.eastsussexww1.org.uk

/index.html#:~:text=By%20the%20end%20of%20March%201918%20there%20were,deploying%20soldiers%20quicker%20than%20had%20previously%20been%20intended.

How did that happen?

 

[cjc]

Yes we are. An incompetent army managed to transport 2 million men in about a year.

In March 1918 there were about 250,000. By November there were almost 2,000,000. 9 months. And that was BEFORE the Emergency Shipping Program delivered about 500 hulls.

View attachment 680982
Source: http://www.gwpda.org/docs/statistics/stats1-4.htm

and

American soldiers arrive in France

Did you know that American soldiers first began arriving in France on 26th June 1917, to fight in the First World War? Although the plot orchestrated earlier in the year by German Foreign Secretary Arthur Zimmerman to pit Mexico against America had spectacularly failed to keep the United States...

www.eastsussexww1.org.uk

/index.html#:~:text=By%20the%20end%20of%20March%201918%20there%20were,deploying%20soldiers%20quicker%20than%20had%20previously%20been%20intended.

How did that happen?

Wasn't it more like 3 million?

 

[TIMER]

Was it ever decided what Wilson would do if the german spring offensive succeeded?

 

[McPherson]

Was it ever decided what Wilson would do if the german spring offensive succeeded?

If you want speculation, take Wilson's incompetent and insufferable bigotted supermoralistic arrogance he showed at RTL Versailles and ramp it up by 10x and postulate that because somehow JFC Fuller's Plan 1919 retrieves the disasterfrom Michael and follow up operations which bleeds the Herr out and the overextended and undersupplied Germans get snowed under by a combination of it is claimed of British Rhomboids and American infantry, Wilson will somehow take all the credit for the victory, forgetting that the French still did 60% of the heavy lifting. Then it will be a race among Pershing, Haig and Wilson to see who can be the biggest jerk at the peace conference.

 

[cjc]

Was it ever decided what Wilson would do if the german spring offensive succeeded?

Nope nobody seems to actually want to talk about it, best I have got is that Wilson isn't going to do anything immediately, then by 1919 when the us army can and will crush Germanys army he will have a much stronger hand for this alt versilis (assuming his health hold up)

 

[Coulsdon Eagle]

Haig won't be at the peace conference. Lloyd George wanted rid of him as C-in-C BEF and wanted to keep power over negotiations strictly in the hands of the politicians.

Did you mean the (new) Armistice negotiations - I can see Haig taking Foch's place at the table in late 1919.

 

[McPherson]

Haig won't be at the peace conference. Lloyd George wanted rid of him as C-in-C BEF and wanted to keep power over negotiations strictly in the hands of the politicians.

Insert Jan Smuts or rather actually some pompous militay individual to replace Haig. (Beatty would be a good naval candidate.)

Did you mean the (new) Armistice negotiations - I can see Haig taking Foch's place at the table in late 1919.

Yes.

 

[TIMER]

Nope nobody seems to actually want to talk about it, best I have got is that Wilson isn't going to do anything immediately, then by 1919 when the us army can and will crush Germanys army he will have a much stronger hand for this alt versilis (assuming his health hold up)

That's sort of what I noticed. I also was wondering why no one was mentioning that the original premise was that Germany wins the war. But that seems to happen more and more on this site.

 

[McPherson]

The best that Germany can do is a negotiated defeat better than the one it scored in RTL. Victory past 1916 would require ASB economic and military shifts.

 

[TIMER]

The best that Germany can do is a negotiated defeat better than the one it scored in RTL. Victory past 1916 would require ASB economic and military shifts.

Probably true, but what does this have to do with the original posters question and premise? What does Wilson do if Germany wins the spring offensive?

 

[McPherson]

Probably true, but what does this have to do with the original posters question and premise? What does Wilson do if Germany wins the spring offensive?

Mexico on a much larger scale.

 

[Mikestone8]

Mexico on a much larger scale.

If France and Italy have been knocked out (and if not, then the offensive hasn't really succeeded, and the OP hasn't been met) then US forces have no useful place to land.

 

[Dorknought]

... US forces have no useful place to land.

Salonika, war is still over by end of 1918.