Great Britain makes peace with Germany in 1940.

englander1

Banned
Halifax came within a whisker of becoming Prime Minister in May 1940; the job was his to refuse. The Tory Party, and the King both wanted him his place in House Lords was a barrier that could be removed.

This scenario describes in my opinion what would have happened if Lord Halifax had accepted the post.
It's quite short through lack of time to spend on it but I can flesh it out later.

May 1940 -

Lord Halifax becomes Prime Minister.
Germany invades France.

June 1940 -

France and Britain declare an armistice with Germany.
Italy who is eyeing Britain’s colonies all so reluctantly agrees.

July 1940 -

Soviets take Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia.

Oct 1940 -

Italy invades Greece.

March 1941 -

A coup in Yugoslavia overthrows the pro-Axis government.

April 1941 -

Germans invade Greece and Yugoslavia.

June 1941 -

The Axis powers attack the USSR.

Oct 1941 -

Axis push towards Moscow begins.

Nov 1941 -

Battle of Moscow begins.

Dec 1941 -

Japan attacks PearlHarbour.
Axis powers declare war on the USA.
Axis forces just manage to hold against the Soviet counter attack in Moscow.
Japanese invade the Philippines.

Jan 1942 -

Japanese invade the Dutch East Indies.
Philippines taken by the Japanese.
Axis fighting withdrawal from a wrecked Moscow.
The German and Italian U-Boats take a heavy toll on US merchant shipping.
The German and Italian Fleets heads into the Atlantic but stays clear of the US coast with the exception of the U-boats.

March 1942 -

Dutch East Indies completely taken.
Axis forces hold against further Soviet counter attacks.

May 1942 -

German summer offensive begins in the Ukraine and Crimea
Japanese win the Battle of Midway destroying the US carriers and taking the Midway atoll.

June 1942 -

Germans begin a drive toward Stalingrad in the USSR.
Japanese capture American Samoa.

August 1942 -

Japanese attack and capture Hawaii.
Japanese ask the Americans for peace terms but they are refused.

Sept 1942 -

Turkey invades the Caucasus assisted by Axis troops.
VichyFrance declares war on the USSR.
VichyFrance given Waloonia (Southern Belgium) by Germany.
Flanders merged with Holland to create the Greater Netherlands.
Germans reach the Caspian Sea cutting off the Caucasus region.

Oct 1942 -

Germans reach the VolgaRiver.
The Greater Netherlands declare war on the USSR.
Germans, French and Italians occupy Switzerland sharing it between them.
Japanese invade Alaska and capture anchorage.
Dutch and French fleets enter the Atlantic.
Pressure on Spain and Portugal to enter the war.

Nov 1942 -

West Banks or the Volga and most of the Don Rivers now in Axis hands.
Stalingrad completely captured by Axis forces.
Soviet counter offensive begins.
Spain enters the war on the Axis side.

Dec 1942 -

Fronts on the Volga and at Stalingrad hold.
Portugal enters the war on the Axis side.
European Axis Fleets and Aircraft quickly make use of Portuguese and SpanishAtlanticIslands.

Fed 1943 -

Soviets break across the Don and push South West

March 1943 -

Soviet advance stopped in the Ukraine and reversed.

June 1943 -

2 huge Axis attacks launched north from the Caucasus along the West Bank of the River Don and South from Novgorod.
SovietSouthAsianRepublics rise in revolt backed by Axis troops and airpower.

Sept 1943 -

Southern offensive reaches Tula South of Moscow.
Large numbers of Soviet troops cut off.
Northern force attacks Moscow.

Oct 1943 -

Southern force joins the attack on Moscow.

Nov 1944 -

Moscow surrounded.
Heavy fighting inside Moscow itself.

Dec 1944 -

Huge US task force attacks the Axis Fleet off Hawaii.
Soviet counter attack fails to break the Axis grip on Moscow.

To be continued -
 
Originally posted by englander1
A coup in Yugoslavia overthrows the pro-Axis government.

With the United Kingdom and France both in armistice with Germany, I don´t think that the yugoslavs made this silly movement, in OTL they expected apart of some kind of support for the USSR could use the possible british intervention in the balkans as a tool to stop a possible german intervention against them after the coup against the pro-axis government, but in this scenario eliminating the continuation of the war of United Kingdom against Germany eliminate in a great degree the probabilities that a coup could be made against the government of Dragisa Cvetkovic.

Originally posted by englander1
August 1942 -

Japanese attack and capture Hawaii.

You are right respect to the data more or less, because it seems that the japanese not had stayed prepare for an invasion not before august 1942, there is recent investigations about japanese plans after Midway: http://www.users.bigpond.com/pacificwar/Midway/ScopeofMidwayOp.html

In any case the japanese even with a victory in Midway confronted of all a series of great difficulties invading Hawaii, in fact it seems that hawaianism could be a worse heresy than sealionism:D, you could read a very critic but also realistic article about the possibilities of a japanese invasion of Hawaii: http://www.combinedfleet.com/pearlops.htm
 
i can see the British declaring war on Japan if they attacked the USA, they wouldnt allow the DEI to fall to Japan unopposed.
 
what about italy? mussolini really was hitlers worst enemy, i'm pretty sure he had his greedy little eyes on some of the african colonies
 
what about italy? mussolini really was hitlers worst enemy, i'm pretty sure he had his greedy little eyes on some of the african colonies

He probably wouldnt feel strong enough (rightly) to attack either the UK or France unless they were in a war with Hitler and looked like they were losing.
 

englander1

Banned
With the United Kingdom and France both in armistice with Germany, I don´t think that the yugoslavs made this silly movement, in OTL they expected apart of some kind of support for the USSR could use the possible british intervention in the balkans as a tool to stop a possible german intervention against them after the coup against the pro-axis government, but in this scenario eliminating the continuation of the war of United Kingdom against Germany eliminate in a great degree the probabilities that a coup could be made against the government of Dragisa Cvetkovic.



You are right respect to the data more or less, because it seems that the japanese not had stayed prepare for an invasion not before august 1942, there is recent investigations about japanese plans after Midway: http://www.users.bigpond.com/pacificwar/Midway/ScopeofMidwayOp.html

In any case the japanese even with a victory in Midway confronted of all a series of great difficulties invading Hawaii, in fact it seems that hawaianism could be a worse heresy than sealionism:D, you could read a very critic but also realistic article about the possibilities of a japanese invasion of Hawaii: http://www.combinedfleet.com/pearlops.htm

I read this with interest http://www.combinedfleet.com/pearlops.htm

Difference to OTL in my scenario and the proposed invasion of Hawaii above is that Japan would have all it’s shipping in the Pacific and none taking on the British in the Indian Ocean.
The Japanese all so have far more troops and aircraft available, as they aren’t deployed against the British Empire.
Then we have the fact that the German and Italian fleets will all so be causing American shipping a huge amount of problems right across the Globe.
In http://www.combinedfleet.com/pearlops.htm it doesn’t mention that the Japanese Fleets Battle Ships and Cruisers would all so wreck any possible American defence against the landings on Hawaii with their shear firepower.
 
Why would Hilter declare war on the Americans? Even if Japan attacked Pearl Harbour, there's no immediate need to attack the US, since the additional reasons to do so IOTL, US supporting the UK, won't exist, but such a step would probably alienate the British and might them bring back to war.

Given an armistice with Britain, Hitler would concentrate on the Soviet Union, as you'd wrote. Furthermore, this would bring in allies which were reluctant IOTL: Turkey, Spain, maybe some occupied western European nations. A very important fact however seems pretty ignored: an armistice with Britain guarantees open seas for the Nazis and the Japanese. Thus a US embargo on oil and steel may be countered by a still prospering Germany controlling a not yet destroyed Europe! Any step the Japanese take is against Germanies interest in this TL: They want to fight the Soviet Union, whereas Japan may feel forced to attack the US (although a bit lesser so ITTL) and the European nations in South Eastern Asia, which have a truce with Germany.

ITTL, Hitler has essentially won in 1940. He's then considering another war. This new war will be about Lebensraum in the East. He'd take his allies accordingly. If Japan refuses to attack the Soviets but goes against european colonies in SE-Asia, colonies of countries Germany tries to get on its side, including Britain, Japan will thus restart a war Hitler has already won. On the other side, given a Japanese attack on British colonies with Britain having an armistice with Germany, one should remember that Hitler always wanted an alliance with the aryan brethren of Britain. Thus why not taking the chance and support the British against the Japanese?

What a great deal of Propaganda: Rommel and the Asiakorps heading towards India to fight for the supremacy of the white man alongside Britain.
And nest: Montgomery alongside the Germany pushing back the Asian hordes of the Soviet Union. Sounds like an idea of Hilter himself.
 

englander1

Banned
Why would Hilter declare war on the Americans? Even if Japan attacked Pearl Harbour, there's no immediate need to attack the US, since the additional reasons to do so IOTL, US supporting the UK, won't exist, but such a step would probably alienate the British and might them bring back to war.

Given an armistice with Britain, Hitler would concentrate on the Soviet Union, as you'd wrote. Furthermore, this would bring in allies which were reluctant IOTL: Turkey, Spain, maybe some occupied western European nations. A very important fact however seems pretty ignored: an armistice with Britain guarantees open seas for the Nazis and the Japanese. Thus a US embargo on oil and steel may be countered by a still prospering Germany controlling a not yet destroyed Europe! Any step the Japanese take is against Germanies interest in this TL: They want to fight the Soviet Union, whereas Japan may feel forced to attack the US (although a bit lesser so ITTL) and the European nations in South Eastern Asia, which have a truce with Germany.

ITTL, Hitler has essentially won in 1940. He's then considering another war. This new war will be about Lebensraum in the East. He'd take his allies accordingly. If Japan refuses to attack the Soviets but goes against european colonies in SE-Asia, colonies of countries Germany tries to get on its side, including Britain, Japan will thus restart a war Hitler has already won. On the other side, given a Japanese attack on British colonies with Britain having an armistice with Germany, one should remember that Hitler always wanted an alliance with the aryan brethren of Britain. Thus why not taking the chance and support the British against the Japanese?

What a great deal of Propaganda: Rommel and the Asiakorps heading towards India to fight for the supremacy of the white man alongside Britain.
And nest: Montgomery alongside the Germany pushing back the Asian hordes of the Soviet Union. Sounds like an idea of Hilter himself.

Hitler honoured his alliance with Japan and in Hitler’s thinking he envisaged a confrontation with the USA at some point anyway.
Japans strike and early advantage seem an opportune moment.
England would stay neutral as it even has less to gain than it had in 1939.
England would now be even more determined to stay neutral after the first experience of war between 1939-40 especially with Lord Halifax in charge.
Japan in my scenario doesn’t attack the British colonies in Asia, as Britain involved in no war elsewhere would be a very hard nut to crack.
A 900 ship strong Royal Navy is a mayor deterrent not to mention the capabilities of the RAF.

You say "Any step the Japanese take is against Germanys interest in this TL" it was OTL but they still did so.
 
We have nothing to gain by such a move.

There's the threat to Singapore, India and Australia. I think that if the Japanese have such success against the US, the British would fear the Axis turning on them next.
 
Last edited:

englander1

Banned
There's the threat to Singapore, India and Australia. I think that if the Japanese have such success against the US, the British would fear the Axis turning on them next.

They would and that’s why the majority of the 900 ship strong Royal Navy would be in the Region.
The Japanese aren’t stupid enough to take that on especially with the more important fact that the British could quickly assist in the war against China.
 

englander1

Banned
Dec 1943 -

US defeat the Japanese Fleet off Hawaii however the follow up invasion by US Marines becomes bogged down.
French, Germany and Italian ships head to the Pacific.

Jan 1944 -

Soviet counter attacks in Russia are still being held at bay.
Turkish, Spanish and Portuguese extra man power is proving invaluable.
French armour and artillery is all proving to be a much needed addition to the Axis forces.
Second battle of Hawaii begins a combined Axis fleet suffers severe loses but manages to get into gun range of the US carriers inflicting severe damage on them.
The US fleet is forced to withdraw harried by German U-boats
US Marines are left behind in Hawaii and engage freshly landed German, French and Italian troops who have come to help a badly damaged Japanese garrison.

Feb 1944 -

The remaining US forces in Hawaii surrender.

March 1944 -

Soviet counter offensive comes to an end.
USSR now suffering a severe shortage of man power.
Britain begins selling ships to the Axis powers a move which is condemned by the US government.
A naval race between the Axis powers and the USA is now in full swing.

April 1944 -

Britain sells two Aircraft Carriers to Germany for an astronomical fee.
The US is outraged and begins a military build up near Canada.
The Canadian government does the same.

To be continued -
 
June 1940 -

France and Britain declare an armistice with Germany.
Italy who is eyeing Britain’s colonies all so reluctantly agrees.
What are the terms of this Armistice, after all France is not surrendering, just withdrawing from the war, NO VICHY FRANCE.
Oct 1940 -

Italy invades Greece.
Britian sends lots of aid to Greece. ????British- Itailain War???

May 1942 -

German summer offensive begins in the Ukraine and Crimea
Japanese win the Battle of Midway destroying the US carriers and taking the Midway atoll.
At which point the US pulls every Sub it has in the Atlantic out and sends them to Pearl.
August 1942 -

Japanese attack and capture Hawaii.
Japanese ask the Americans for peace terms but they are refused.
During [transport to] said attack the US would consider the trade of One Sub per Troops ship. as good exchange.
I doubt if more than 1~2 Troops ships make it to Hawiia.
 
What are the terms of this Armistice, after all France is not surrendering, just withdrawing from the war, NO VICHY FRANCE.

Britian sends lots of aid to Greece. ????British- Itailain War???

Nice twist. It may become a proxy war, in which Britain defeats a German ally instead of Germany itself, with prospects to offering a much strengthened Britain a respectable way back into the war if Germany finally decides to prop Italy up – at the worst moment possible for Germany, i.e. while it's engaged in the East. In other words, this 1940 peace is likely to be something like the Amiens Treaty peace – a moment of respite.

It's interesting how the total, astounding strategic surprise of Barbarossa isn't going to take place in this TL; if the Germans are not at war with Britain, the Soviets are going to be waiting for them. I wonder whether the added available strength is going to be enough to balance this. Also note how the Soviet shipments of raw materials to Germany will have tapered off some time in late 1940, instead of going on.
 

englander1

Banned
What are the terms of this Armistice, after all France is not surrendering, just withdrawing from the war, NO VICHY FRANCE.

Britian sends lots of aid to Greece. ????British- Itailain War???


At which point the US pulls every Sub it has in the Atlantic out and sends them to Pearl.
During [transport to] said attack the US would consider the trade of One Sub per Troops ship. as good exchange.
I doubt if more than 1~2 Troops ships make it to Hawiia.

France still remains under occupation and Vichy France is still created.
In OTL the Second Armistice at Compiègne, France was signed at 18:50 on 22 June 1940.
This would still be the same.

Britain does not aid Greece against Italy in my scenario.

And there is no chance at all American Subs could take out an invasion fleet heading to Hawaii.
 

englander1

Banned
Nice twist. It may become a proxy war, in which Britain defeats a German ally instead of Germany itself, with prospects to offering a much strengthened Britain a respectable way back into the war if Germany finally decides to prop Italy up – at the worst moment possible for Germany, i.e. while it's engaged in the East. In other words, this 1940 peace is likely to be something like the Amiens Treaty peace – a moment of respite.

It's interesting how the total, astounding strategic surprise of Barbarossa isn't going to take place in this TL; if the Germans are not at war with Britain, the Soviets are going to be waiting for them. I wonder whether the added available strength is going to be enough to balance this. Also note how the Soviet shipments of raw materials to Germany will have tapered off some time in late 1940, instead of going on.

Britain under Lord Halifax would definatly not try and get back into the war.
Britain has nothing to gain from doing so.
 
British Peace with Germany May 1940

The scenario of a negotiated peace between a British Government led by Halifax and Hitler's Germany has been discussed in many texts. Some argue that it would have left Britain isolated facing a Soviet-dominated Europe in 1946 while the US and Japan fought on in the pacific. Others argue that it would have been impossible for Britain to survive completely independent and it would have become part of a German-dominated Europe (a la Fatherland).

It's not always remembered that Halifax would have been the choice had the Conservative MPs had a free vote on May 10 1940. Churchill's supporters were a minority and he wasn't well loved in the Opposition parties either.

I assume the terms of an armistice (perhaps negotiated by Ciano and Rab Butler) would have been fairly "generous" in that the British would have been allowed to peacefully withdraw from France and Norway. This of course would have been a complete betrayal of the French and would have destroyed Anglo-French relations.

I suspect Hitler might have looked to gaining access to Malta and Gibraltar though he would presumably have recognised the right of Britain to mange its Imperial possessions unhindered by Berlin.

Now, that leaves open the prospect of Germany declaring war on Japan in December 1941 if the Japanese attack the likes of Hong Kong and Malaya.

A lot of this scenario depends on events elsewhere. Would the Germans be more successful in the invasion of the USSR ? Hard to know - if we assume not, the scenario of a Soviet-dominated Europe looks very likely. The "best hope" for Britain is probably a long indecisive struggle in the East which eventually bleeds both the Nazis and Soviets to exhaustion.

Where does the US fit in all this ? Would the Manhattan Project have progressed as quickly without British involvement ?

We could imagine a world by 1950 in which the US has finally defeated Japan and dominates the Pacific where Australia and New Zealand are far more in line with Washington than London. In Europe, there is widespread fighting in the east while the Nazis struggle to hold on in the face of growing resistance in the west and south.

The British are bogged down in India.
 

Valamyr

Banned
I made a post this morning in the "Axis victory" thread below that used a similar premise. I dont normally repost, but as it could give ideas to others, and for convenience sake, here's the relevant part:

Germany could definitely have "won" if she had managed to convince Britain to make peace with her sometime between the fall of France and the US DoW. Its very unlikely this could happen after Barbarossa, though. Frankly, I think the best pod would be to remove/never have Churchill in power. Perhaps Chamberlain remain and begin secret negotiations after Hitler's July speech. These negotiations appear serious enough to butterfly away the Battle of Britain, which doesn't happen... also Chamberlain gives more cautious orders to Wavell (That was him in Egypt in 40 i think?) who fights defensively against the Italians in Africa, so no fall of Toubruk/Africka Corps. Hitler wants peace with Britain bad enough to make concessions on his colonial demands (Only get back what the French took, but not the British parts, and maybe Morocco to compensate), and these terms are good enough to be accepted by London... which also keeps the dutch indies but stop officially recognizing the European governments in exile in exchange, perhaps. This way, Britain doesn't lose anything, gets its PoWs back, never suffer the air raids. They get promises concerning the fate of France but nothing concrete, most likely, but its still enough to claim an honorable peace. The US never gets involved much, as peace happens too early, and in the publics' eyes, Britain got off easy. (Since many feared a successful invasion of the islands then.)

Hitler would probably still attack the USSR (Although in OTL he largely rationalized the attack as a necessity to convince Britain to make peace, but OTOH in this timeline he'd have other reasons). But its a war that can be won for Germany rather easily if its fought in a single front. Stalin refused to believe so adamantly that Germany would attack, that he's probably still surprised ITTL. (The western armistice can also happen in spring 41, to make this more plausible) The troops that were stuck in the west and in north Africa alone could suffice to allow Germany to simultaneously attack Kiev and Moscow, thus saving them a precious month of infighting. The fact they stopped advancing at Smolensk (proving they were stretched thin) is a large part of what convinced Stalin to stay in Moscow and not to propose MUCH more generous peace terms to Germany in the fall of 41. A politically isolated USSR would not fight alone for any length of time. Germany doesn't get the Urals, but accepts an Arkhangelsk's-Astrakhan border to consolidate and fight off partisans. Hitler probably intends to attack again, as he wants no soviet state, but either cannot do so, or is persuaded not to, possibly bribed by Stalin's successor with natural resources and dissuaded with difficulties occupying what he conquered in the east.
 
Originally posted by englander1
And there is no chance at all American Subs could take out an invasion fleet heading to Hawaii.

At least they could try to form a defensive barrier, some subs could get hit points (although at this early data they suffered serious problems with torpedos, on the other side the japanese not showed a gret performance in sinking US subs, I think that at least US would try to perform some kind of sub strategy against the previst invasion -BTW also in this ATL they continue to have the breaking codes succeses that permitted to confront the japanese more succesfull in OTL?).

In any case, and I admit that your point about that is totally different because the japanese simpilily not go against Malaya, Singapore and Australia because they don´t declare the war against United Kingdom or other Commonwealth nations mades far easier to concentrate in Hawaii, we will have a very hard campaign in Hawaii, I doubt that the japanese only will needs a month to conquer Hawaii and in any case even with these concentration as if you read the article the logistics to conquer Hawaii with the most near point of supply being Midway (and in the article of combinedfleet is shown how very difficult is to made Midway an appropiated point of supply) is at least far very difficult that conquering Philippines with Taiwan staying very near of Philiipines or the Dutch Netherlands with Indochina being a near point of supplies.

The problem is not only the amount of divisions and ships that in this ATL would be more numerous than in OTL for Hawaii operation, the problem is logistics.

Originally posted by englander1
Britain under Lord Halifax would definatly not try and get back into the war.
Britain has nothing to gain from doing so.

I admit that Halifax could follow this path, the problems is that is a blind path, if Germany and Japan defeats the USA and Soviet Union, the United Kingdom and the Commonwealth will be alone in a world dominated by nazis and japanese, could be Hitler could think in the british as aryan partners, but in any case the germans would be the first aryan while the british at the end would be the minor aryan brother, How much could resist the parlamentiary democracy of UK in a world dominated by nazis and japanese when all the other great potences have been defeated?,.

This is basic geopolitics and if Halifax not sees this, is totally blind, could be Britain has nothing to gain from doing so, but is clear that it will have a lot to lost at long term at least if he don´t made some kind of movement in favour of the USA ( I am not talking about war, only some kind of help).

Also is not only not making any is the fact that "March 1944 -

Soviet counter offensive comes to an end.
USSR now suffering a severe shortage of man power.
Britain begins selling ships to the Axis powers a move which is condemned by the US government.
A naval race between the Axis powers and the USA is now in full swing.

April 1944 -

Britain sells two Aircraft Carriers to Germany for an astronomical fee.
The US is outraged and begins a military build up near Canada.
The Canadian government does the same."

that is helping the Axis although it is by the way of payment in money. The Halifax of this ATL is politically blind or could be you are exagerating a little about the willingnes of Halifax of being at the end not only neutral in fact pro-nazi?
 

englander1

Banned
The scenario of a negotiated peace between a British Government led by Halifax and Hitler's Germany has been discussed in many texts. Some argue that it would have left Britain isolated facing a Soviet-dominated Europe in 1946 while the US and Japan fought on in the pacific. Others argue that it would have been impossible for Britain to survive completely independent and it would have become part of a German-dominated Europe (a la Fatherland).

It's not always remembered that Halifax would have been the choice had the Conservative MPs had a free vote on May 10 1940. Churchill's supporters were a minority and he wasn't well loved in the Opposition parties either.

He turned down the possition but it was his to refuse.

I assume the terms of an armistice (perhaps negotiated by Ciano and Rab Butler) would have been fairly "generous" in that the British would have been allowed to peacefully withdraw from France and Norway. This of course would have been a complete betrayal of the French and would have destroyed Anglo-French relations.

France would be under Vichy control so relations wouldnt be that bad.

I suspect Hitler might have looked to gaining access to Malta and Gibraltar though he would presumably have recognised the right of Britain to mange its Imperial possessions unhindered by Berlin.

Hitler said he would accept peace without any terms on England like re-gaining the former Germany collonies etc.

Now, that leaves open the prospect of Germany declaring war on Japan in December 1941 if the Japanese attack the likes of Hong Kong and Malaya.

I dont think the Japs would dare if the British Empire had not been at war.

A lot of this scenario depends on events elsewhere. Would the Germans be more successful in the invasion of the USSR ? Hard to know - if we assume not, the scenario of a Soviet-dominated Europe looks very likely. The "best hope" for Britain is probably a long indecisive struggle in the East which eventually bleeds both the Nazis and Soviets to exhaustion.

The Germans would have quite a few more Divisions to deploy and more aircraft by far not to mention a much larger Italian contingent.

Where does the US fit in all this ? Would the Manhattan Project have progressed as quickly without British involvement ?

Would have been slower.

We could imagine a world by 1950 in which the US has finally defeated Japan and dominates the Pacific where Australia and New Zealand are far more in line with Washington than London. In Europe, there is widespread fighting in the east while the Nazis struggle to hold on in the face of growing resistance in the west and south.



The British are bogged down in India.

The British where never driven from one single collony after the American War of Indepenence nor would we be here.
 
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