Henry VIII's annus horribilis: Edward VI dies before Henry in 1545

[ixweimar]

1545 was an annus horribilis for Tudor England and its corpulent tyrant. Not only did Henry VIII's best friend, the Duke of Suffolk, die, but the war with France was at an expensive stalemate after the withdrawal of Charles V from the Italian War. Domestically, Tudor England was ravaged by two concurrent epidemics, the plague outbreak in 1544-46 and the bloody flux spread into England by soldiers who had been fighting at Boulogne. What if either one of these diseases had "decided" to round off Henry's already terrible year by killing his only son and heir, Edward, Prince of Wales (the future Edward VI)? How would the course of English history have been impacted by the lack of Edward VI's reign, which witnessed a shift in the Church of England from Henry's "Catholicism without the Pope" in a more Protestant direction?

Incidentally, Edward VI dying young, whether as Prince of Wales or King during Somerset's Regency during 1547-49 would probably have been off better off for England, given how the Somerset and Northumberland Regencies proved to be even more disastrous for England's foreign policy than the last decade or so of Henry VIII's reign. After all, his death would end the War of the Rough Wooing early, which in turn would have led to Mary, Queen of Scots, not being sent off to France and not becoming Dauphinne(and later Queen) of France through marriage. Francis II's untimely death in 1560, which ended the Franco-Scottish encirclement of England, can only be considered a stroke of heavenly fortune for Elizabeth and her reign.

 

[Happiness]

According to Henry's will, Mary was next in line and she would become queen earlier . Her father would probably choose an English nobleman and Mary would marry him before king's death, giving her the opportunity to have a child or two. She will be 31, which is better than 37 for pregnancy.

 

[ordinarylittleme]

Her father would probably choose an English nobleman and Mary would marry him before king's death

For the sake of hilarity, with a 1545 POD, let's say Anne Stanhope died in childbirth around then...

 

[FalconHonour]

For the sake of hilarity, with a 1545 POD, let's say Anne Stanhope died in childbirth around then...

I mean, Tom Seymour is still free even if we don't kill Anne..

 

[ordinarylittleme]

I mean, Tom Seymour is still free even if we don't kill Anne..

I realize, but I would want Katherine Parr happier ITTL too, if we're letting Queen Mary reign for half a decade longer than OTL

 

[Happiness]

For the sake of hilarity, with a 1545 POD, let's say Anne Stanhope died in childbirth around then...

Edward Seymour and Mary? This will anger Thomas even more. Even if he marries for the dowager queen, Edward will be king and his master.

 

[ixweimar]

According to Henry's will, Mary was next in line and she would become queen earlier . Her father would probably choose an English nobleman and Mary would marry him before king's death, giving her the opportunity to have a child or two. She will be 31, which is better than 37 for pregnancy.

For the sake of hilarity, with a 1545 POD, let's say Anne Stanhope died in childbirth around then...

I mean, Tom Seymour is still free even if we don't kill Anne..

In 1545, religious conservatives were still ascendant in Henry's Court. If Mary decides to marry domestically, it will either be the Yorkist heir Courtenay or the Duke of Norfolk's son the Earl of Surrey. Reginald Pole, as an attainted traitor in Henry's England, is out.

 

[Happiness]

In 1545, religious conservatives were still ascendant in Henry's Court. If Mary decides to marry domestically, it will either be the Yorkist heir Courtenay or the Duke of Norfolk's son the Earl of Surrey. Reginald Pole, as an attainted traitor in Henry's England, is out.

But Edward Courtney was imprisoned in the Tower of London until the end of Henry's reign.

 

[ixweimar]

But Edward Courtney was imprisoned in the Tower of London until the end of Henry's reign.

Henry's health was rapidly deteriorating from 1545-47: who says that the news of Edward's death will hasten his death? Although in that case, Pole is a better candidate for Mary's hand than Courtenay.

 

[Happiness]

Henry's health was rapidly deteriorating from 1545-47: who says that the news of Edward's death will hasten his death? Although in that case, Pole is a better candidate for Mary's hand than Courtenay.

Say Henry dies in 1545/46 and she marries Reginald - how many children can she has? She is in her early thirties and will not have time to have many children like a someone younger woman. And if Mary has at least two sons, will her sister Elizabeth marry someone?

 

[DrakeRlugia]

Reginald would be a bit difficult in 1545/46.

While he wasn't yet a priest (and wasn't created one until 1556 so he could become Bishop of Canterbury) he was already a deacon and a cardinal by that point. Deacons are held to a vow of celibacy just the same as priests. Of course, Mary's succession might make that a bit easier and Paul III might be amiable to releasing Reginald from his vows so that he can marry the English queen.

However, given what we know of Mary's character... I really see no reason why she'd accept Reginald or even see him as a choice. She was pretty adamant on contracting a royal match, and wedding an Englishman puts her in the difficult situation of putting one subject above all the others... even if that subject is Reginald and he's been away for nearly a decade. Same with Courtenay and Surrey. Like IOTL, she'll likely want to use this early reign to turn back the clock on the Henrican religious reforms and will likely see Reginald as an ally within the curia to help make that happen—assuming Henry dies before he can force her into some sort of marriage.

Charles V and the Spanish will be important allies for Queen Mary here just as they were IOTL, and it's incredibly likely that she looks to them. In 1545 Philp II lost his wife Maria Manuela and would be eligible to wed Mary as IOTL, or even the emperor himself. In 1545 Charles V is in a bit better shape compared to the shape he was in 1553, and the original idea considered a marriage between the queen and the emperor. His son was merely the substitute when Charles V felt he couldn't go through with the match for health reasons. The ascendance of the conservative faction in 1545-1546 will also help prime the pump...

Even if Mary still dies in 1558, she has a decade to try and restore Catholicism and pop out a few children. Even a daughter would help cement her position over remaining childless. As for Elizabeth, she's 12-13 in this period. Mary will have some control over the remainder of her education and will probably try and to ensure she's given a Catholic education to try and convert her. It's hard to say how their relationship develops: they were somewhat close when Elizabeth was younger, things only became strained once Mary became queen and she felt Elizabeth was plotting against her, plus her refusal to convert. Elizabeth's situation would be a lot more fragile than it was IOTL.

 

[ixweimar]

Reginald would be a bit difficult in 1545/46.

While he wasn't yet a priest (and wasn't created one until 1556 so he could become Bishop of Canterbury) he was already a deacon and a cardinal by that point. Deacons are held to a vow of celibacy just the same as priests. Of course, Mary's succession might make that a bit easier and Paul III might be amiable to releasing Reginald from his vows so that he can marry the English queen.

However, given what we know of Mary's character... I really see no reason why she'd accept Reginald or even see him as a choice. She was pretty adamant on contracting a royal match, and wedding an Englishman puts her in the difficult situation of putting one subject above all the others... even if that subject is Reginald and he's been away for nearly a decade. Same with Courtenay and Surrey. Like IOTL, she'll likely want to use this early reign to turn back the clock on the Henrican religious reforms and will likely see Reginald as an ally within the curia to help make that happen—assuming Henry dies before he can force her into some sort of marriage.

Charles V and the Spanish will be important allies for Queen Mary here just as they were IOTL, and it's incredibly likely that she looks to them. In 1545 Philp II lost his wife Maria Manuela and would be eligible to wed Mary as IOTL, or even the emperor himself. In 1545 Charles V is in a bit better shape compared to the shape he was in 1553, and the original idea considered a marriage between the queen and the emperor. His son was merely the substitute when Charles V felt he couldn't go through with the match for health reasons. The ascendance of the conservative faction in 1545-1546 will also help prime the pump...

Even if Mary still dies in 1558, she has a decade to try and restore Catholicism and pop out a few children. Even a daughter would help cement her position over remaining childless. As for Elizabeth, she's 12-13 in this period. Mary will have some control over the remainder of her education and will probably try and to ensure she's given a Catholic education to try and convert her. It's hard to say how their relationship develops: they were somewhat close when Elizabeth was younger, things only became strained once Mary became queen and she felt Elizabeth was plotting against her, plus her refusal to convert. Elizabeth's situation would be a lot more fragile than it was IOTL.

I'm assuming that Henry dies in 1546 rather than 1547 here, especially given his near-death experience in July 1546 immediately after signing peace with France and six months before his OTL death.

I'm certain that Edward's early death in the 1540s would have been widely interpreted as divine punishment of Henry for his heresy and uxoricide(by Charles V and the English) or divine punishment for sacking Boulogne.(by Francis) If the Duke of Suffolk dies around the same time as Edward, this will simply confirm to the French that God's wrath is striking down the English for their provocations against France.

 

[ordinarylittleme]

It's hard to say how their relationship develops: they were somewhat close when Elizabeth was younger, things only became strained once Mary became queen and she felt Elizabeth was plotting against her, plus her refusal to convert. Elizabeth's situation would be a lot more fragile than it was IOTL.

Mary doted on Elizabeth as a child, here she is secure as queen, Elizabeth would know to toe the line like OTL

 

[DrakeRlugia]

Mary doted on Elizabeth as a child, here she is secure as queen, Elizabeth would know to toe the line like OTL

Is she though? Not everyone will be happy to return back to Rome. The Conservatives were empowered, but that meant maintaining the traditional liturgy. Even men like Gardiner had accepted royal supremacy by that point.

Here you avoid the Edwardian excesses and radical reformation that was attempted, but that doesn't mean everything will be fine. Until Mary has a child, Elizabeth will be a potential lightning rod for opposition as her heiress. Even a young child can be a threat in the hands of the wrong people.

I'd also hardly argue that Elizabeth 'toed the line' IOTL when she was pretty adamant that she was never going to convert and spent copious periods of time under house arrest. There's not much she can do as a young girl, but that doesn't mean Mary and Elizabeth ride off into the sunset happily ever after and have a good relationship. There will be plenty to pour poison in Mary's ear about her bastard half sister as there were IOTL, especially if she struggles to conceive a child of her own. Given her own health issues, the extra few years may not be as much help as people seem to think.

 

[ordinarylittleme]

Given her own health issues, the extra few years may not be as much help as people seem to think.

A husband who stays full-time in England with her would probably help...

 

[ixweimar]

Is she though? Not everyone will be happy to return back to Rome. The Conservatives were empowered, but that meant maintaining the traditional liturgy. Even men like Gardiner had accepted royal supremacy by that point.

The Privy Council fights of Henry VIII's dying years were over "Catholicism with the Pope" or "Catholicism without the Pope". Without Northumberland's Regency from 1549-53, introducing Protestant theology to the Church of England would have been a complete non-starter. Even Somerset refused to rock the boat too much between 1547-1549, the early years of Edward VI's reign.

Here you avoid the Edwardian excesses and radical reformation that was attempted, but that doesn't mean everything will be fine. Until Mary has a child, Elizabeth will be a potential lightning rod for opposition as her heiress. Even a young child can be a threat in the hands of the wrong people.

I'd also hardly argue that Elizabeth 'toed the line' IOTL when she was pretty adamant that she was never going to convert and spent copious periods of time under house arrest. There's not much she can do as a young girl, but that doesn't mean Mary and Elizabeth ride off into the sunset happily ever after and have a good relationship. There will be plenty to pour poison in Mary's ear about her bastard half sister as there were IOTL, especially if she struggles to conceive a child of her own. Given her own health issues, the extra few years may not be as much help as people seem to think.

Elizabeth in 1546 was pretty much an adherent of Henry's "Catholicism without the Pope": there are no records of her refusing to attend Henrician Mass. Nor do I believe that Elizabeth would have become a Protestant heroine in the event that Edward VI died early or even died before his father: aside from the fact that Henry had brutally and efficiently crushed dissenters during his reign, Elizabeth does not even appear to have become a committed Protestant until the radical reforms of Northumerland's Regency. And as men like Gardiner and Howard demonstrated in 1553-55, conservatives within the Privy Council viewed Henry's Break from Rome as a temporary interlude after which England could again return to the Papacy.

Incidentally, had Henry VIII died in July 1546 when the conservatives were at the height of their power rather than January 1547, the conservative faction would have controlled Edward's religious education rather than the reformists. As Richard Rex concludes in The Tudors, "had Henry VIII died six months earlier, England would have remained a Catholic country, and its young King would have been raised to be as zealous a Catholic as he was a Protestant under the reformists." Of course, this is another way to ensure that England remains a Catholic country without killing anyone.(well, expect the decreipt Henry, who had only six months left of life anyway)

 

[Tudorfan]

if Mary succeeded c. 1547 and reigned until 1558, England would be perma-Catholic as most historians believe that Mary's policies of Catholicism weren't wrong or bad, she just didn't have long enough to establish them. With 11 years, rather than 5 1/2, she's establishing Catholicism, but a metric fuck tonne of people are definitely dying - she'll be striking down hard to snuff out the Protestant reformation. Cramner is absolutely dying a cruel and painful death as revenge.

Then, of course, there's Elizabeth. Given that she's only 13 when Henry dies, in a few years she'll be prime for marriage and Mary will seize on that - whatever Elizabeth's birth, it was Anne that Mary hated not Elizabeth, and Mary would rather have Elizabeth succeed her (if Mary is childless) rather than MQoS because the English had "French bad" in terms of the succession. So Elizabeth will be married young at 16/17ish and making the babies with some Catholic to guarantee a Catholic succession in the absence of babies from Mary.

As for Mary, well, I doubt she'd marry Philip at this point, because he's only 20 at the time of Mary's succession as Charles was looking at marrying him to Jeanne III of Navarre after her first marriage was annulled. So, for a while at least, he's off the table.

She could marry a Pole, but they might be a bit to "common" to marry a Queen, so Mary may go for Portugal or, perhaps reluctantly, France - especially if she wanted to establish England's claim to it again?

 

[Kerney]

Speaking of young girls besides Elizabeth who could get a good Catholic education starting at age nine and six respectively, Jane and Katherine Grey.

A fun irony would be for Mary to try name Jane her heir.

 

[ixweimar]

Speaking of young girls besides Elizabeth who could get a good Catholic education starting at age nine and six respectively, Jane and Katherine Grey.

A fun irony would be for Mary to try name Jane her heir.

I agree that Elizabeth and the Greys are likely to be educated as Catholics without Edward VI's reign, or more accurately, the Radical Reformation of Northumberland's Regency.

As for Mary naming the Greys as her heirs, why? The Douglases are senior-line claimants, and almost as zealous Catholics as Mary herself.

 

[ordinarylittleme]

A fun irony would be for Mary to try name Jane her heir.

Why? Margaret's line isn't extinct yet