Hitler spoofed Stalin in 1939 ?

[Michel Van]

1938 Munich Peace conference had to secure safety of Europe
But Hitler greed for Poland let to WW2

But what if Hitler and his goons had a better idea ?
Let do Stalin do the job for them !
With the Molotov–Ribbentrop Pact, who divide Poland, but also set date of Invasion of Germans and Soviet forces.
Only that Third Reich invades one day after Invasion by USSR !

With declaration by Hitler that Wehrmacht march into west Poland to protect them of evil Communist invasion.
While Stalin get suspicion about this Pact, was really so good idea ?

How would Britain and France react on this ?
First evil Soviet invade east Poland and then Nazi comes as "protector"
Technical The Third Reich not violated the 1938 Peace Agreement...

 

[Peg Leg Pom]

If the Germans go into Poland with the excuse of going to their defence against the Soviets Britain and France will stand aside and watch what happens. If this gambit of Hitler's results in German and Soviet forces clashing (very likely) then all well and good, let the two sides bleed each other white. This gambit would probably be designed to engineer a war with the Soviets. If it doesn't then in German occupied Poland there will be some sort of puppet Government to maintain the illusion that Germany came to Poland's aid, at least for a time. Neither Britain or France particularly care about Poland, it was an excuse to trigger a war that was by then inevitable. Another excuse will be found at a later date when Britain and France are better prepared.

 

[Anarch King of Dipsodes]

Stalin was no fool. He would never commit any overt act until he was sure that Germany was at war with the UK/France; or that UK/France had refused to honor their guarantee to Poland by not declaring war after the German invasion. In either case the USSR would be safe from any response by them.

 

[HammerofWar]

Stalin was no fool .

Many other things, but no fool. I agree

 

[Garrison]

1938 Munich Peace conference had to secure safety of Europe
But Hitler greed for Poland let to WW2

But what if Hitler and his goons had a better idea ?
Let do Stalin do the job for them !
With the Molotov–Ribbentrop Pact, who divide Poland, but also set date of Invasion of Germans and Soviet forces.
Only that Third Reich invades one day after Invasion by USSR !

With declaration by Hitler that Wehrmacht march into west Poland to protect them of evil Communist invasion.
While Stalin get suspicion about this Pact, was really so good idea ?

How would Britain and France react on this ?
First evil Soviet invade east Poland and then Nazi comes as "protector"
Technical The Third Reich not violated the 1938 Peace Agreement...

So it's been maybe, what a fortnight since this exact same proposal was last put forward and the answer remains the same as it did then. The whole point of the M-R Pact was to have Hitler focus his attention on the Western powers. Stalin is not going to do anything until Hitler makes his move and provokes the British and French into declaring war. Stalin wants a rerun of the Western Front from WWI while the USSR rearms and profits from trading basic raw materials for the high tech machine tools that will speed up that rearmament. This kind of childish 'gotcha!' scenario is just not going to happen.

 

[Deleted member 94680]

So the Soviets are stupid enough to invade first (throwing away the possible advantages of initial Nazi aggression), subordinate their military operations to a Nazi timetable (unlikely enough on its own with Stalin’s paranoia) and move before they’ve secured their eastern borders after the Japanese battles? Seems unlikely.

Also, this ‘gotcha’ plan falls apart the second Nazis start fighting Poles and bombing cities. Kind of hard to argue you’re “responding to Soviet aggression” when you’re rolling Panzers through downtown Chojnice and terror bombing Weiluń.

 

[33k7]

the only way I see this happening is if Joseph Stalin is deposed and Trotsky is brought back as leader but has not made it back to the USSR basically have some relatively unknown person acting as temporary leader and is tricked by Hitler and attacks Poland first.

if the French and British refuse to help the boys in their war against Ussr their word will be worthless and they will lose a lot of clout globally because their word means nothing while making the Germans look like Heroes which would be something I could actually see Chamberlain doing sadly..I don't think the French President would go through with it though

 

[naraic]

the only way I see this happening is if Joseph Stalin is deposed and Trotsky is brought back as leader but has not made it back to the USSR basically have some relatively unknown person acting as temporary leader and is tricked by Hitler and attacks Poland first.

if the French and British refuse to help the boys in their war against Ussr their word will be worthless and they will lose a lot of clout globally because their word means nothing while making the Germans look like Heroes which would be something I could actually see Chamberlain doing sadly..I don't think the French President would go through with it though

Why do you say this?

Britain never offered Poland assurances against the ussr.

 

[33k7]

Why do you say this?

Britain never offered Poland assurances against the ussr.

Anglo-Polish military alliance - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

.

According to the Polish-British Common Defence Pact, the United Kingdom should give Poland "all the support and assistance in its power" if Poland was "engaged in hostilities with a European Power in consequence of aggression by the latter".

 

[naraic]

Anglo-Polish military alliance - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

.

According to the Polish-British Common Defence Pact, the United Kingdom should give Poland "all the support and assistance in its power" if Poland was "engaged in hostilities with a European Power in consequence of aggression by the latter".

Read your own link please.

That was an assurance given in March which was replaced in August by the Anglo Polish agreement of mutual assistance.

Under which the British agreed to defend Poland against Getmany and consult with Poland if any actions should be taken in common if any other powers attacked Poland.

 

[tus3]

the only way I see this happening is if Joseph Stalin is deposed and Trotsky is brought back as leader but has not made it back to the USSR basically have some relatively unknown person acting as temporary leader and is tricked by Hitler and attacks Poland first.

Or you could just let somebody else than Stalin win the power-struggle after Lenin's death. That would avoid something as ASB as Stalin being overthrown by non-existent Trotskyists.

 

[Peg Leg Pom]

According to the Polish-British Common Defence Pact, the United Kingdom should give Poland (1)"all the support and assistance in its power" if Poland was (2) "engaged in hostilities with a European Power in consequence of aggression by the latter".

Excuses for doing nothing against the Soviets (Pure nit picking bull)
(1) There's nothing we can do old boy, Germany is in the way.
(2) Doesn't apply the Soviets aren't a European Power most of it's in Asia.

 

[Not James Stockdale]

Stalin went into Poland after Hitler for a reason. If the Germans had not invaded, Stalin would not have invaded.

 

[Garrison]

Or you could just let somebody else than Stalin win the power-struggle after Lenin's death. That would avoid something as ASB as Stalin being overthrown by non-existent Trotskyists.

Problem is that you have to assume this someone else still signs up to the M-R Pact. That implies very similar circumstances to OTL, meaning that they still want Hitler to turn west and still have no reason to attack Poland first.

 

[33k7]

Read your own link please.

That was an assurance given in March which was replaced in August by the Anglo Polish agreement of mutual assistance.

Under which the British agreed to defend Poland against Getmany and consult with Poland if any actions should be taken in common if any other powers attacked Poland.

and once again the British throw another nation under the bus the French would look at the British and go or do you really have our back. I wonder how the United States, the rest of Europe , and the English voters look at that Churchill would go insane and denounced the British government. you would probably have new elections called up in the uk.

the average English citizens will not have read the treaty they will just know that the British had a military Alliance or defensive pact with the Polish and they have just broken it just because it wasn't the Germans will not be a good enough excuse for the voting people of the United Kingdom the average UK citizen would be faced with this question is peace at any cost worth throwing the rest of Europe under the bus to be subjugated by brutal and totalitarian Nations.

 

[Anarcho-Occultist]

Stalin is paranoid enough that if the Germans don't attack on the agreed-upon date he will probably assume the deal's off and thus not strike first.

 

[naraic]

and once again the British throw another nation under the bus the French would look at the British and go or do you really have our back. I wonder how the United States, the rest of Europe , and the English voters look at that Churchill would go insane and denounced the British government. you would probably have new elections called up in the uk.

Considering the Franco Polish alliance was strictly anti German (and not yet ratified in September 1939) I doubt the French are too eager for war with the ussr.

 

[Cudymcar]

the only way I see this happening is if Joseph Stalin is deposed and Trotsky is brought back as leader

Trotsky would never make a deal with Hitler.
The only way to make this happen is Yezhov taking power. He's a madman and wants to be friends with Hitler.

 

[nbcman]

Stalin is paranoid enough that if the Germans don't attack on the agreed-upon date he will probably assume the deal's off and thus not strike first.

Plus there’s no way the Soviets are striking the Poles before the ceasefire with the Japanese after Khalkhin Gol takes effect which took place on 15 Sep. If Germany didn’t move on Poland in over 2 weeks, the Soviets will stand their ground.

 

[33k7]

Considering the Franco Polish alliance was strictly anti German (and not yet ratified in September 1939) I doubt the French are too eager for war with the ussr.

not doing this basically ensures that Eastern Europe joins the Germans quite willingly because the Western allies have shown that they will not come to their aid

Trotsky would never make a deal with Hitler.
The only way to make this happen is Yezhov taking power. He's a madman and wants to be friends with Hitler.

I see you completely ignore the rest of the statement where I said he wasn't in the Soviet Union and someone else was acting as a transitional leader until he returned to the ussr

in any event I was just trying to set up a scenario here that could be possible