In the course of writing an answer at Quora explaining why Catalonia is more bilingual in Catalan and Spanish than Québec is in French and English, I made the point that despite superficial similarities Québec and Catalonia have very different language demographics. Each has a population of about eight million people (Catalonia a bit less, Québec a bit more) while having a very large share of its population in a local metropolis (Barcelona and Montréal, respectively). Unlike Québec, where people whose native language is French make up 78% of the population and Anglophones form a single-digit percentage of the population across most of the territory of Québec, Catalonia is a place where people whose main language is Catalan do not even make up the single largest language community.
The Terres de l'Ebre region, the most Catalanophone area of the region where more than 70% of the population uses Catalan as a regular language, is substantially less Catalanophone than areas of Québec with reputation for bilingualism like the Eastern Townships and the Outaouais are Francophone. Meanwhile, as illustrated in a 2009 article at La Voz de Barcelona (“El uso del castellano dobla el del catalán en el área metropolitana de Barcelona”), even including bilingual speakers, Barcelona is still a metropolis where Spanish is most commonly spoken.
A bare majority of people on the island of Montréal speak French as their native language, and two-thirds of the population of Greater Montréal including the various suburbs speaks French natively; one-third of Greater Montréal's population speaks a variety of other languages natively, of which English is the most common. The contrast with Barcelona, where rather less than one-third of the population has Catalan as its regular language, is clear.
Catalonia did not end up being rather less Catalanophone than Québec is Francophone because Catalans stopped speaking their language; even during the Franco period, Catalans seem to have continued using their language. It seems as if the main factor behind the relative growth of Spanish, particularly in Barcelona, was the migration history of 20th century Catalonia. In the mid-20th century particularly, a rich Catalonia with booming factories offering work and a desirable living standard attracted literally millions of people from across Spain. With the exception of some migrants from the Balearics and Valencia, most of these people spoke Spanish natively. Especially given the volume of this migration and Francoist repression of Catalan in public life, the full assimilation of these migrants over generations was probably not possible.
To what extent can we make Catalonia more Catalan-speaking? I can imagine PODs that left Catalonia relatively more Catalan-speaking: If Catalonia gained independence from Spain in the 1930s, for instance, I very much doubt that an independent Catalonia would receive anything like the same volume of immigration that it did OTL. I can also imagine rather less drastic routes; a surviving Spanish Second Republic containing an autonomous Catalonia would surely see this Catalonia pursue very different language policies. For that matter, if migration to Catalonia was less overwhelmingly dominated by speakers of Spanish, language dynamics would change; consider how Argentina, even though speakers of different Italian dialects probably formed a majority of in-coming immigrants, remained Spanish-speaking simply because Spanish remained the common language of a very diverse population.
Thoughts?
The Terres de l'Ebre region, the most Catalanophone area of the region where more than 70% of the population uses Catalan as a regular language, is substantially less Catalanophone than areas of Québec with reputation for bilingualism like the Eastern Townships and the Outaouais are Francophone. Meanwhile, as illustrated in a 2009 article at La Voz de Barcelona (“El uso del castellano dobla el del catalán en el área metropolitana de Barcelona”), even including bilingual speakers, Barcelona is still a metropolis where Spanish is most commonly spoken.
A bare majority of people on the island of Montréal speak French as their native language, and two-thirds of the population of Greater Montréal including the various suburbs speaks French natively; one-third of Greater Montréal's population speaks a variety of other languages natively, of which English is the most common. The contrast with Barcelona, where rather less than one-third of the population has Catalan as its regular language, is clear.
Catalonia did not end up being rather less Catalanophone than Québec is Francophone because Catalans stopped speaking their language; even during the Franco period, Catalans seem to have continued using their language. It seems as if the main factor behind the relative growth of Spanish, particularly in Barcelona, was the migration history of 20th century Catalonia. In the mid-20th century particularly, a rich Catalonia with booming factories offering work and a desirable living standard attracted literally millions of people from across Spain. With the exception of some migrants from the Balearics and Valencia, most of these people spoke Spanish natively. Especially given the volume of this migration and Francoist repression of Catalan in public life, the full assimilation of these migrants over generations was probably not possible.
To what extent can we make Catalonia more Catalan-speaking? I can imagine PODs that left Catalonia relatively more Catalan-speaking: If Catalonia gained independence from Spain in the 1930s, for instance, I very much doubt that an independent Catalonia would receive anything like the same volume of immigration that it did OTL. I can also imagine rather less drastic routes; a surviving Spanish Second Republic containing an autonomous Catalonia would surely see this Catalonia pursue very different language policies. For that matter, if migration to Catalonia was less overwhelmingly dominated by speakers of Spanish, language dynamics would change; consider how Argentina, even though speakers of different Italian dialects probably formed a majority of in-coming immigrants, remained Spanish-speaking simply because Spanish remained the common language of a very diverse population.
Thoughts?