If France does not surrender, what happens to Indo China?

[Paul V McNutt]

In 1940, 1941, it would be a tempting target for Japan. France can't really defend it. When are the Japanese ready to go to war with the UK and the Commonwealth?

 

[King Augeas]

If the war plan still involves Pearl Harbour, then Japan is ready at the time she was OTL. With the historical forces in place, the need to take Indochina will delay the attack on Malaya, but the lack of aircraft and ships still means that Japan controls the air and seas, meaning that they can outflank the defences. Singapore still looks doomed.

But that assumes OTL forces. What's happening in North Africa? If (and it may be a big if) French forces striking from Tunisia in early 1941 in conjunction with Compass enables North Africa to be mopped up by the summer, then there's a lot of ground and air forces that might be deployed east.

 

[John Farson]

Yeah, France refusing to surrender is a big, big POD here, with effects beyond just Indochina.

In any case, with a legal French government continuing the war, the Japanese will be unable to bully the French into giving them basing rights as they will be unable to strike at the European empires until they've finished constructing their last two aircraft carriers. Of course, no Japanese incursion into Indochina also means that the US doesn't halt their shipments of airplanes, parts, machine tools and aviation gasoline to Japan, at least for the time being.

 

[Archibald]

In France Fights On the French (hhaving moved to Algiers - no Vichy) are not really able to hold Indochina entirely but they manage to get the Japanese bogged down in a place called (drums rolling !) DIEN BIEN PHU ! This has cascading effects typical of A.H. Singapore helds much longer (although it is still falling in the end, I think it falls September 1942) but the British resistance (Gort - I have to check) has McArthur trying the same thing in Corregidor - and getting killed there in July 1942 in an apocalyptic end (because Apocalypse is the only end dign of McArthur)

 

[Pomphis]

Yeah, France refusing to surrender is a big, big POD here, with effects beyond just Indochina.

In any case, with a legal French government continuing the war, the Japanese will be unable to bully the French into giving them basing rights as they will be unable to strike at the European empires until they've finished constructing their last two aircraft carriers. Of course, no Japanese incursion into Indochina also means that the US doesn't halt their shipments of airplanes, parts, machine tools and aviation gasoline to Japan, at least for the time being.

Exactly. No Vichy probably means no japanese occupation of Indochina which probably means no US embargoes which means no Pearl Harbor which means no War in the Pacific.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Events_leading_to_the_attack_on_Pearl_Harbor

Japan's 1940 move into Vichy-controlled Indochina further raised tensions. When combined with its war with China, withdrawal from the League of Nations, alliance with Germany and Italy and increasing militarization, the move provoked an attempt to restrain Japan economically. The United States embargoed scrap metal shipments to Japan and closed the Panama Canal to Japanese shipping.[7] This particularly hit Japan's economy hard because 74.1% of Japan's scrap iron came from the United States in 1938. Also, 93% of Japan's copper in 1939 came from the United States.[8] In early 1941, Japan moved into southern Indochina,[9] thereby threatening British Malaya, North Borneo and Brunei.

Japan and the U.S. engaged in negotiations during the course of 1941 in an effort to improve relations. During these negotiations, Japan considered withdrawal from most of China and Indochina after drawing up peace terms with the Chinese. Japan would also adopt an independent interpretation of the Tripartite Pact, and would not discriminate in trade, provided all other countries reciprocated. However, these compromises in China were rejected by General Tojo, then War Minister.[10] Responding to Japanese occupation of key airfields in Indochina (July 24) following an agreement between Japan and Vichy France, the U.S. froze Japanese assets on July 26, 1941, and on August 1 established an embargo on oil and gasoline exports to Japan.[11][12] The oil embargo was an especially strong response because oil was Japan's most crucial import, and more than 80% of Japan's oil at the time came from the United States.[13]

 

[Paul V McNutt]

But that assumes OTL forces. What's happening in North Africa? If (and it may be a big if) French forces striking from Tunisia in early 1941 in conjunction with Compass enables North Africa to be mopped up by the summer, then there's a lot of ground and air forces that might be deployed east.

What I assume is that ITTL the British and French take Libya in July 1940. The British could have moved much of their military to the Far East. So if war does come, the British may be able to hold Burma, Malaya and Singapore.

 

[Archibald]

Paul, you are more or less describing France Fights on Scenario. The most imediate casualty of France-in-Algiers is the whole North African campaign. With the bulk of the French armies now in North Africa, together with the british they steamroll the Italians in September 1940 - long before any Afrika Korps rescue them. So North Africa is over by October 1940 (compare that to OTL June 1943 !)

The whole bunch of bloody fighting in the Mediterranean concentrates around Greece, Crete, the Balkans (this is where Rommel Korps land his job) and... Corsica ! Corsica is not occupied by Germany until March 1941, and there's a very bloody (Crete-like) battle where the French are pushed out of Corsica by the German paratroopers that OTL landed in Crete. They suffer heavy losses, and can't do it again for Crete, which doesn't fall. Without Vichy there is no Syrian campaign either in summer 1941.

There are many, epic battles between the Aglo-French and Italian Navy, and the Mediterranean sounds turns into a giant ironbottom sound.

 

[Pomphis]

Paul, you are more or less describing France Fights on Scenario. The most imediate casualty of France-in-Algiers is the whole North African campaign. With the bulk of the French armies now in North Africa, together with the british they steamroll the Italians in September 1940 - long before any Afrika Korps rescue them. So North Africa is over by October 1940 (compare that to OTL June 1943 !)

If italy declares war. Depending on the POD it may remain neutral or non-belligerent.

 

[Archibald]

FFO POD is June 6 (that is, death of Reynaud influential, hysterical and defeatist mistress Hélène Des Portes in a car accident) so Italy still entering the war four days later.

 

[Redbeard]

If France stays in the war on British side Japan will be in a much more difficult situation, especially because they can’t expect to bully themselves to access to bases in French Indo China (FIC). Without FIC any plans for taking Singapore are nigh on impossible to execute and Dutch East India (DEI) will be difficult to hold and exploit if Singapore is still on allied hands.


So Japan will have to fight for FIC and seen from OTL 1940 the French certainly did not have forces in FIC able to guarantee a successful defence. But I’m also quite sure, that the allies will immediately recognize the importance of FIC (I suppose they did also in OTL), in this ATL however they have realistic opportunities to act accordingly.


FIC actually is closer to major allied bases (Singapore) than it is to major Japanese (Taiwan) so a substantial reinforcement of FIC is not unrealistic. The Italian possessions in North Africa (NA) will be difficult to maintain for the Axis. I doubt we will see an Africacorps, and if Germany choose to engage in NA they will need two or three Africacorps. The OTL Africacorps took up the logistic efforts of an entire East Front Army.


With the OTL Vichy areas under allied control it will be much easier to maintain communication with the Far East – airplanes can be flown directly. The big question of course is if Churchill will try to utilize the situation to “gain the initiative” in Europe. In OTL his obsession with that drained all resources out of the Far East but that was also in a situation where FIC had been lost and couldn’t realistically be regained. In this ATL the Japanese will have to declare war to gain FIC. If they do it in 1940, before the allies have reinforced too much, they will be in full-fledged war before they are really ready. And even if they succeed in taking FIC, the allies by that time will be capable to put up a much more serious fight for Singapore. And without Singapore the entire reason for Japan entering the war (gaining DEI oil) goes down the drain.