So pretty much what the title says. Would Palestine be granted independence? Would it all end in Jordan's hands? Would Syria, Egypt and the rest divide it among themselves?
If Israel lost in 1948, how would Palestine be divided?
- Thread starter El_Presidente
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Ok to answer the question in simple terms ignoring the genocide that would have occurred to the Jews present . The Egyptians see themselves as different to the Syrians who also see themselves as different to the Jordanians . A partition would occur and numerous wars would the occur as one nation builds up what it thinks it needs in order to win . Pretty much exactly what happened against Israel except without the unified front . Ie Egypt would fight an alliance of Jordan and Syria then 2 decades later it would happen again . The People who inhabit the region are not particularly warlike in nature but the leadership has been very aggressive . End result normal citizens lose , leaders win ,
IMHO the actual dividing lines can be discussed, but the one thing you can guarantee is that in 1948 there will not be a "Palestine". The Hashemites have the best "claim" to Jerusalem, and given the geography and the various militaries my best bet is the following:
1. Jordan - Gets the "waist" of Israel including Jerusalem, Tel Aviv & Haifa/Jaffo
2. Syria - gets some of northern Israel and the area around Kinneret
3. Egypt - Gets the southern Israel perhaps to the Dead Sea.
Given the nature of the Arab regimes, I doubt you'll see any clear "occupation zones" agreed upon in advance unlike the case with Germany, nor will Jerusalem become a multi-national city like Berlin.The final borders will be primarily based on where the armies are when the fighting stops, with some adjustments as needed later on. The only "negotiating" between the Arabs will be over any territory not physically occupied - for example if a cease fire is called and the Un occupies a bit of territory temporarily to get the Jews out. You can expect the Arabs to declare that any Jews who can't trace their families to before WWI (at least) will need to leave, assuming they allow any to stay at all. If there is a "UN zone" temporarily the Jews who live there may get out with some resources, any who flee from occupied areas will be lucky to leave with the clothes on their back let alone one suitcase. In fact, you can expect a lot of very bad things to happen to the Jews in areas the Arab armies occupy. The Arab Legion probably will fight relatively clean, the others not so much and the "militias" that would be involved as well as the local population not at all.
OTL Neither Egypt nor Jordan made any effort to allow a "Palestine" in any areas on their side of the armistice lines - they only gave those territories to "Palestine" after the 1967 war when they were under Israeli occupation. In 1948 the incorporation of "Israel" in to Egypt/Jordan/Syria may start as a "temporary" occupation but will soon become annexation. And exactly who will stop this from happening - nobody. The same international community that did nothing when the Arabs rejected the partition plan and attacked won't do more than talk (if that) about the Palestinians needing there own homeland.
The next question, of course, is what happens to the Jews of Israel/Palestine who survive the war but are not allowed to stay - the majority of the. What happens to the Jews in the various refugee camps in Europe who OTL went to Israel after independence. What happens to the Jews in the Arab countries? OTL this last group was repressed and/or forced out as elements seen by the local governments as loyal to the foreign enemy, Israel. I don't see the governments of most Arab countries ITTL being less hostile or not implementing repressive measures. Unlike OTL where Arab refugees could literally walk across a border and be stteled in refugee camps, not a good solution to be sure, here you have to put the Jews on boats and take them somewhere. Germany? Poland? other Soviet dominated countries - some might go there, but there were pogroms there after the war, and many of the same neighbors turned Jews over to the Nazis and looted them. The USA - really, the USA in 1948 is going to take in hundreds of thousands of JEWS!!! Even if the US Jewish community will finance things?
1. Jordan - Gets the "waist" of Israel including Jerusalem, Tel Aviv & Haifa/Jaffo
2. Syria - gets some of northern Israel and the area around Kinneret
3. Egypt - Gets the southern Israel perhaps to the Dead Sea.
Given the nature of the Arab regimes, I doubt you'll see any clear "occupation zones" agreed upon in advance unlike the case with Germany, nor will Jerusalem become a multi-national city like Berlin.The final borders will be primarily based on where the armies are when the fighting stops, with some adjustments as needed later on. The only "negotiating" between the Arabs will be over any territory not physically occupied - for example if a cease fire is called and the Un occupies a bit of territory temporarily to get the Jews out. You can expect the Arabs to declare that any Jews who can't trace their families to before WWI (at least) will need to leave, assuming they allow any to stay at all. If there is a "UN zone" temporarily the Jews who live there may get out with some resources, any who flee from occupied areas will be lucky to leave with the clothes on their back let alone one suitcase. In fact, you can expect a lot of very bad things to happen to the Jews in areas the Arab armies occupy. The Arab Legion probably will fight relatively clean, the others not so much and the "militias" that would be involved as well as the local population not at all.
OTL Neither Egypt nor Jordan made any effort to allow a "Palestine" in any areas on their side of the armistice lines - they only gave those territories to "Palestine" after the 1967 war when they were under Israeli occupation. In 1948 the incorporation of "Israel" in to Egypt/Jordan/Syria may start as a "temporary" occupation but will soon become annexation. And exactly who will stop this from happening - nobody. The same international community that did nothing when the Arabs rejected the partition plan and attacked won't do more than talk (if that) about the Palestinians needing there own homeland.
The next question, of course, is what happens to the Jews of Israel/Palestine who survive the war but are not allowed to stay - the majority of the. What happens to the Jews in the various refugee camps in Europe who OTL went to Israel after independence. What happens to the Jews in the Arab countries? OTL this last group was repressed and/or forced out as elements seen by the local governments as loyal to the foreign enemy, Israel. I don't see the governments of most Arab countries ITTL being less hostile or not implementing repressive measures. Unlike OTL where Arab refugees could literally walk across a border and be stteled in refugee camps, not a good solution to be sure, here you have to put the Jews on boats and take them somewhere. Germany? Poland? other Soviet dominated countries - some might go there, but there were pogroms there after the war, and many of the same neighbors turned Jews over to the Nazis and looted them. The USA - really, the USA in 1948 is going to take in hundreds of thousands of JEWS!!! Even if the US Jewish community will finance things?
Be divided into Egyptian,Jordanian and Syrian zones for the Arabs,no Palestinian government.Oh yes,and mass graves and cemeteries for the Jewish inhabitants.And I believe you'll still see terrorists out of the Middle East,this timeline it will be bitter survivors and sympathizers of the slaughtered Israelis waging war for decades across the Middle East,Europe.
Will surviving Jews emigrate? Who'd take them in at this point?
Or will they be tolerated in some areas of Cisjordan?
Or will they be tolerated in some areas of Cisjordan?
The various Arab governments at the time, and the "Palestinian" resistance groups and governments to today, have the position that those Jews who immigrated to Palestine after WWI, under the aegis of the Balfour Declaration and then after WWII are "colonial settlers" who have no rights to be there, nor their descendants. The maximal position was that those Jews who lived in Palestine prior to the end of Ottoman rule and their descendants had a right to remain, more extreme views pushed the date back further and some (such as the Grand Mufti of Jerusalem who spent much of WWII in Germany buddying around with the Nazis) took the position that the appropriate Jewish population of Palestine was zero. Based on this the maximum number of Jews who would be permitted to stay in Palestine would be quite small. Remember "Palestine" will be divided into parts now owned by Syria, Jordan, and Egypt.
As to where the Jews who survived the war and were not permitted to stay in Palestine would go - good question. It is important to note between the end of WWII and May, 1948 when the State of Israel was declared and immigration completely opened there were hundreds of thousands of Jews in various DP camps in Cyprus, and in Europe. While many were in the camps waiting for the chance to go to Palestine/Israel, equally large numbers would have been willing to go elsewhere (though not Germany, Poland, Hungary, USSR) if "elsewhere" would have them. "Elsewhere" was not interested...
As to where the Jews who survived the war and were not permitted to stay in Palestine would go - good question. It is important to note between the end of WWII and May, 1948 when the State of Israel was declared and immigration completely opened there were hundreds of thousands of Jews in various DP camps in Cyprus, and in Europe. While many were in the camps waiting for the chance to go to Palestine/Israel, equally large numbers would have been willing to go elsewhere (though not Germany, Poland, Hungary, USSR) if "elsewhere" would have them. "Elsewhere" was not interested...
Assuming the Grand Mufti's position were to pass and massacres were to start, would the UN or anyone else intervene somehow?
The Jews that lived in Arab countries like Syria and Iraq will be unaffected. The Arabs are not going to genocide the Jews in Palestine. There might be a few massacres caused by victory fervor and some Jews staging last stands rather than leaving but no genocide. The *Great Powers will not tolerate a genocide. There will be refugee camps administered by the UN on the West Coast while the World decides what to do about the situation and the poor Jews who have nothing but the clothes on their backs.
A lot of European Jews with money will move back to Europe. Some might go to Cyprus creating a third ethnic population on that island beside the Greeks and the Turks. President Truman might take emergency measures to try to resettle Israelis in the USA and Congress might go along with it or not. No one is going to want to be called a anti-Semite so soon after the Holocaust. However, Anti-Zionism will no longer be considered a taboo topic and be a legitimate political issue again since the state of Israel no longer exists.
*Great Powers was still a concept people believed at this time. In reality, only the opinion of the US and the USSR matter.
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There will be extensive rape, looting, and killings - period. If not by undisciplined military units, the "militias" that were involved as well as local populations urged on by folks like the Grand Mufti. Exactly what are the great powers going to do? This OP posits that the Arab armies defeat the Israeli forces - is anyone going to send forces to the area to confront the advancing Arab armies. Certainly not the British who had washed their hands of the situation, not the French who had been ejected from Syria and were busy trying to keep their influence in Lebanon, and were beginning to have problems in Algeria. The USA?? Surely you a joking (I know don't call you Shirley). If the Arabs are winning the only cease fire they will accept is one where the Jews agree to leave - in that case the Jews in what is still Israeli territory and refugees that get there will probably be protected by a small UN sponsored force to oversee their evacuation.
As far as what goes on outside of the "evacuation zone", what happens in Vegas stays in Vegas. Nobody is going to send troops across the line to protect Jews being savaged. Naturally at the UN and elsewhere there will be editorial thunderings and diplomatic tut-tuttings that will be it. To be honest when was the last time the "international community" really intervened to stop these sorts of killings especially to the extent of putting their own citizens at risk? Yugoslavia? Rwanda? Myanmar? Cambodia? etc, etc, etc. Armenians in the Ottoman Empire, Greeks/Armenians/others in Smyrna basically nothing was done.
Having said that I don't expect death camps in Palestine, or in other Arab countries. Whether or not the Jewish populations in Syria, Iraq, and other Arab countries are still tolerated and successful if there is no Israel can be argued either way - there was a not inconsiderable pro-Nazi feeling among the Arabs in WWII because of their anti-Jewish policies.
As far as what goes on outside of the "evacuation zone", what happens in Vegas stays in Vegas. Nobody is going to send troops across the line to protect Jews being savaged. Naturally at the UN and elsewhere there will be editorial thunderings and diplomatic tut-tuttings that will be it. To be honest when was the last time the "international community" really intervened to stop these sorts of killings especially to the extent of putting their own citizens at risk? Yugoslavia? Rwanda? Myanmar? Cambodia? etc, etc, etc. Armenians in the Ottoman Empire, Greeks/Armenians/others in Smyrna basically nothing was done.
Having said that I don't expect death camps in Palestine, or in other Arab countries. Whether or not the Jewish populations in Syria, Iraq, and other Arab countries are still tolerated and successful if there is no Israel can be argued either way - there was a not inconsiderable pro-Nazi feeling among the Arabs in WWII because of their anti-Jewish policies.
The U.S. would be the primary landing place. Even today the number of Jews in the U.S. is close to the number in Israel, in 1940 there were more Jews living in the U.S. than any country on Earth (4.2M in the U.S., the USSR had 3M and Poland 2.5M, no other country had one million or more Jewish residents)
I really doubt there'd have been any "great power" intervention quickly enough. Also knowledge of the holocaust and general sympathy for the victims and survivors wasn't really that strong yet among the western populace.
Not the original topic, but it's interesting to think where the refugees would go.
Stalin at the time was pro-Israel. Could he sponsor jewish immigration to the Jewish Autonomous Oblast? How succesful would that initiative be?
Of course, if Stalin goes all antisemite as he did later that might be jumping out of the frying pan into the fire.
Stalin at the time was pro-Israel. Could he sponsor jewish immigration to the Jewish Autonomous Oblast? How succesful would that initiative be?
Of course, if Stalin goes all antisemite as he did later that might be jumping out of the frying pan into the fire.
Would there be a push for another "Jewish homeland" in a different part of the British Empire like Uganda or Tanzania?
I have heard that Stalin's anti-Zionism stemmed from the 50,000 Jews who turned up in Moscow (without official approval) to see Golda Meir when she became the first Israeli ambassador to the USSR. If that doesn't happen, the JAO probably has a better chance of actually being used for Jews, although I don't know how many Jews would actually want to go to Siberia. A Jewish JAO's reaction to the Sino-Soviet split and the border wars (the JAO is right on the Amur) could be interesting. There were also abortive Soviet plans to use Crimea as a "Jewish homeland" but those were more or less abandoned before the Great Patriotic War.
It is possible that one of the other truces or an alternate truce holds, and Israel loses territory relative to the partition plan, or relative to their position at the start of the conflict, without being eliminated. It's not like the conflict had any single definitive phase in OTL.
How do things progress if the first UN ceasefire holds?
How do things progress if the first UN ceasefire holds?
I am worried that if the Arabs started winning in '48 they would not be able to control their troops. The more they would take, the more they would demand, and the harder a negotiated peace becomes. You quickly end up with with a situation where the Arabs want an unconditional surrender and demand the "foreign" Israelis to expelled from Palestine.
This is how they'd respond the longer a truce held?
I'm sure the other factions will continue to want the 'foreign' Israelis to be expelled, but they couldn't force the matter across a military frontier. The longer the truce lasts, the more likely it is for great power intervention to occur, or for simple inertia to solidify those borders. The borders were got in real life were cease-fire lines later ratified, this could happen a few truces earlier.
@CalBear: After WWII the USA made very few adjustments to the immigration laws that had kept so many Jews out of the USA, as well as stopping the Jews from going to South American countries as under the immigration laws there were no quotas from the Americas and therefore Jews who went to a South American country could end up in the USA. If Israel loses the 1948 war(s) there will be several hundred thousand "Israelis" wanting to sail past the Lady in the Harbor. Jews with advanced degrees, some like Golda Meir who went from the USA to Palestine, others of note will get a golden ticket. The rest, well does Truman have the political capital to open the door in the face of the Southern Democratic bloc, the WASPs in the State Department, etc for tens of thousands (or more) Jews most of whom come penniless and next to naked.
As far as truces go, the truces came about because the Arabs were losing, as the map shows the Jews were doing better than expected, and the Arabs asked for a truce and also were resupplying. Had the Arabs been winning, had the Jews been compressed into a smaller area than seen on the map, I doubt the Arabs would have been asking for a truce. even had they asked for one and one granted, if they were winning and saw that they would be able to "drive the Jews in to the sea", their terms would have been "you get some 'peace' to leave". The partition plan was basically non-viable in the sense that the "Israel" in those borders would be economically and militarily unsustainable - if the Jews had been compressed in to the coastal strip centered on Tel Aviv/Haifa, that would have been even less viable. The population that could be sustained on that area was probably less than the number of Jews already in Israel, and at some time in the not too distant future the next war would start, with every square inch of "Israel" under artillery fire. Such a "state" would last exactly as long as foreign powers and troops were willing to sustain it, including taking casualties to do so. YThis work work as well as it did in Srebrenica.
As far as truces go, the truces came about because the Arabs were losing, as the map shows the Jews were doing better than expected, and the Arabs asked for a truce and also were resupplying. Had the Arabs been winning, had the Jews been compressed into a smaller area than seen on the map, I doubt the Arabs would have been asking for a truce. even had they asked for one and one granted, if they were winning and saw that they would be able to "drive the Jews in to the sea", their terms would have been "you get some 'peace' to leave". The partition plan was basically non-viable in the sense that the "Israel" in those borders would be economically and militarily unsustainable - if the Jews had been compressed in to the coastal strip centered on Tel Aviv/Haifa, that would have been even less viable. The population that could be sustained on that area was probably less than the number of Jews already in Israel, and at some time in the not too distant future the next war would start, with every square inch of "Israel" under artillery fire. Such a "state" would last exactly as long as foreign powers and troops were willing to sustain it, including taking casualties to do so. YThis work work as well as it did in Srebrenica.
@Enigmajones : The division would be between the Arab victors (Egypt, Jordan, Syria) - no part for the Jews.