If Mussolini is assassinated on July 4, 1934, what happens to the Austrian Nazi putsch on July 25th?

[raharris1973]

If an Anarchist bomber blows up Mussolini at the beginning of July, 1934, what do the ensuing few weeks look like in Italy?

Is the succession smooth or rough? Who is the nominal, or actual, number one in the regime? Balbo? Ciano? Grandi? De Bono? Badoglio? Farinacci?

In the meantime, tension has been brewing between the Austrian Nazis and the "Austro-Fascist" Dolfuss government.

In OTL this broke out into an attempted Austrian Nazi putsch on July 25th that was put down by the 30th. Mussolini's Italy postured forces at the Brenner pass to deter German Nazi intervention.

Will the Italian government, going through it's grieving and succession process, similarly intervene to Germany in the ATL or not?

If it does, will Hitler test their will?

If it does not, does Hitler provide the Austrian Nazis with the aid they need to win?

If the Austrian Nazis take power by August 1934, do the two branches of the party arrange Austro-German Anschluss by December 1934?

If the Italians do nothing and Hitler is emboldened to get involved, would any other countries have the inclination and decisiveness to oppose his move? Here I am thinking of the Austrians themselves, or the Yugoslavs, Hungarians, Czechs or French?

 

[20thCenturyBoy]

Bump. I admittingly don’t know enough about this topic but I don’t think France would interfere because it lost so much manpower from WW1 and they really wanted to avoid war. Just my thoughts though.

 

[Thoresby]

Bump. I admittingly don’t know enough about this topic but I don’t think France would interfere because it lost so much manpower from WW1 and they really wanted to avoid war. Just my thoughts though.

France was far more eager to uphold Versailles, but couldn't act without British backing. If you want the WAllies to be more proactive in the 30s you need to change British rather than French politics.

As for Italy it depends on the timing of the assassination and the fallout. You could see things go either way; either Italy takes a stronstr stand as the various competitors out do each other in toughness and talk the government's position up, or they stand aside and as the wannabe Duce's focus on their internal power struggle. It could go either way.

 

[Cook]

While it is true that there was a significant personal factor in the Italian response to Drollfuss's assassination (Mussolini and Dollfuss were good friends and Mussolini had to personally break the news of the assassination to Dollfuss's widow Alwine, who was holidaying at his villa when the Chancellor was assassinated), there is very little likelihood that Italy's fascist government would tolerate an armed Anschluss in 1934.

I would assume that Dino Grandi would be most likely to succeed Mussolini as head of government, at least initially. Alternatively Italo Balbo might win the top seat.
You can rule Ciano out of any significant role; in 1934 he wasn't even a cabinet member, and he owed his later rise entirely to his position as Mussolini's son-in-law.

 

[lukedalton]

While it is true that there was a significant personal factor in the Italian response to Drollfuss's assassination (Mussolini and Dollfuss were good friends and Mussolini had to personally break the news of the assassination to Dollfuss's widow Alwine, who was holidaying at his villa when the Chancellor was assassinated), there is very little likelihood that Italy's fascist government would tolerate an armed Anschluss in 1934.

I would assume that Dino Grandi would be most likely to succeed Mussolini as head of government, at least initially. Alternatively Italo Balbo might win the top seat.
You can rule Ciano out of any significant role; in 1934 he wasn't even a cabinet member, and he owed his later rise entirely to his position as Mussolini's son-in-law.

While i agree in general with that, the problem was that Benny had a big tendency to monopolize power and his method to remain in power was to promote yes man and non entity while giving to any possible adversary a promotion that was more a golden cage far away from the real power center (like Balbo).
So while no goverment in Italy at the moment will look very fondly at an Anshluss, expecially one achieved thanks to a blatant coup, if Adolf it's quick enough the political structure of Italy will be too in disarray over the succession of Mussolini to really oppose this move and will probably accept the fait accomplit.

Said that, in this scenario we can butterfly away the war in Ethiopia and the fall of the Stresa Front, the first was Benny objective to show that his regime was better than the liberal one and the second will be a strong reassurance for Italy due to the now shared border between Germany and Austria.

 

[sarahz]

While it is true that there was a significant personal factor in the Italian response to Drollfuss's assassination (Mussolini and Dollfuss were good friends and Mussolini had to personally break the news of the assassination to Dollfuss's widow Alwine, who was holidaying at his villa when the Chancellor was assassinated), there is very little likelihood that Italy's fascist government would tolerate an armed Anschluss in 1934.

I would assume that Dino Grandi would be most likely to succeed Mussolini as head of government, at least initially. Alternatively Italo Balbo might win the top seat.
You can rule Ciano out of any significant role; in 1934 he wasn't even a cabinet member, and he owed his later rise entirely to his position as Mussolini's son-in-law.

If Balbo gets office quickly then I think he would move. He was not a fan of Germany.

 

[FillyofDelphi]

If Balbo gets office quickly then I think he would move. He was not a fan of Germany.

Which he or somebody else certainly will. Given the broader Conservative compromise that was Italian Facism's rise to and maitaince of power, there's actually a surprising amount of brittleness to hardline "Ducist" control, meaning a compromise. charismatic candidate of the yes-man persuasion is actually the perfect sort to replace Benny.

 

[Seandineen]

Clerical fascism, was slightly less rigid in this period. The Austrian system relied on corporatism, and worker coptatation.

 

[Seandineen]

They didnt want an anchlyus, at all.

 

[Cook]

If Balbo gets office quickly then I think he would move. He was not a fan of Germany.

No-one in the Fascist Grand Council was at that time, including Mussolini. And Italy had guaranteed Austrian independence the year before.

 

[raharris1973]

While i agree in general with that, the problem was that Benny had a big tendency to monopolize power and his method to remain in power was to promote yes man and non entity while giving to any possible adversary a promotion that was more a golden cage far away from the real power center (like Balbo).
So while no goverment in Italy at the moment will look very fondly at an Anshluss, expecially one achieved thanks to a blatant coup, if Adolf it's quick enough the political structure of Italy will be too in disarray over the succession of Mussolini to really oppose this move and will probably accept the fait accomplit.

Said that, in this scenario we can butterfly away the war in Ethiopia and the fall of the Stresa Front, the first was Benny objective to show that his regime was better than the liberal one and the second will be a strong reassurance for Italy due to the now shared border between Germany and Austria.

Very interesting. Would Italy make restoration of Austrian independence a foreign policy goal?

It seems to me if it happens it is soon recognized as irreversible.

Is that enough to do more than delay the Ethiopia war by a year or so?

Regarding the longevity of the Stresa front, will it really be strong through the rest of the 1930s, or just atrophy after a short period.

It seems to me that there is less of a point to Stresa after Austria is lost.

One thing is that Hitler will likely not act like the threat Italy is expecting.

Unless he changes his mind, Hitler will not be pushing the claim to Tyrol at all. After a year or two of Hitler being conciliatory, maybe Italy would forgive and forget?

Also, assuming Hitler’s next move is not south but is the Rhineland, how interested will Italy be in sticking its neck out for a mainly French interest?

Likewise, if Hitler’s next move after that is on Czechoslovakia, is Italy really interested in acting on behalf of the Czechs?

Finally let’s assume the Spanish Civil War breaks out on schedule. Given preexisting ideological commitments, Germany and Italy are both likely to back the Spanish Nationalists.

But, if the Italians are still upset with Germany over the Austrian coup two years later in 1936, might they se a menacing German agenda in Spain? Could that lead an anti-German Italy to support the Republic of all things?

 

[raharris1973]

Germany succeeding in early unification with Austria seems to be the top vote getter. Interesting. What does early Austrian incorporation do for Hitlers Germany?

It seems to me it puts a spotlight on the Sudetenland issue much earlier. Will Hitler still wait until 1938 to press the issue, or would things come to a head in 35, 36, or 37?

 

[Anchises]

Germany succeeding in early unification with Austria seems to be the top vote getter. Interesting. What does early Austrian incorporation do for Hitlers Germany?

It seems to me it puts a spotlight on the Sudetenland issue much earlier. Will Hitler still wait until 1938 to press the issue, or would things come to a head in 35, 36, or 37?

I think we have to take into account the backstabbing and vying for the top position that would ensue in Italy. Mussolini hadn't designated a successor if I am not mistaken.

Securing the seat of the Duce might be more important than coordinating an effort to relieve Austria.

That being said:

Hitler's position would become much stronger much earlier compared to OTL. I would also assume some butterflies in the rearmament process. The Wehrmacht in 1939 ITTL is going to be slightly better armed probably.

I don't think the Sudetenland would immediately become an issue. The Saarland and the Rhineland would be more pressing issues. The Sudetenland might be on the agenda in 37 though.

Another important issue here is that Austria isn't a "Blumenkrieg". Blood was spilled but Goebbels might frame it as a "liberation of German brethrens that have been oppressed by an unjust regime".

Long term butterflies here would be a) Italy and B) the WAllies.

Germany has been aggressive really early. Maybe appeasement isn't happening to the same degree as IOTL.

 

[Thoresby]

I'm not sure about that, while a bloody coup isn't going to help with Germany's reputation public and elite sentiment in Britain is going to support the Anschluss, the bigger question is if it encourages Hitler to move faster in the Rhineland and with openly abandoning the Versailles military restrictions which will trigger rearmament.

 

[Evil Crusader]

I would say that it mostly depends on what happens in Italy - after all, Dollfuss would take the death of his main supporter very seriously.

So, either he gets a metric ton of reassurances and cracks down on Nazis with full support of whomever comes on top in Italy (Grandi is more likely, Balbo a reasonable contender, almost no chance of an outsider IMO) or the coup is rushed to completion to capitalize and/or Fascist leadership is paralyzed by internal strife and not able to intervene.

I think it's more likely that, unless the rushed attempt has luck on its side, he gets to live; if he does not, as per your original question, then Austria is done for - either immediately or in a short while. Pan-Germanism was still strong back then in Austria.

Now, onto your follow-up; the Stresa Front was against German revanchism and not in defense of Austrian independence (which would have been seen as a failed attempt at divided Germanies), and would have been greatly strengthened. No amount of (still believable) reassurances on South Tyrol would make Italy feel safe, PTSD on 'the rebirth of the reviled Austrian power' would run high, especially as such a Germany would likely be friendly with Yugoslavia - even if Hitler mantains a semblance of Austrian independence inder the local Nazis. I would say that the next step still is the Rhineland - too important and too easy as a grab. After that, however, I suspect Hitler would be forced to bargain more and be prevented from further gains; I see either Balbo or Grandi becoming staunch defenders of Central Europe status quo. There would be zero interest or need in the Ethiopia venture, too. When/if the Spanish Civil War erupts, there would be a ''strange bedfellows" situation. I think WW2 is butterflied away, but German-Soviet War with benevolent Stresa neutrality is almost certain to happen.

 

[raharris1973]

I would say that it mostly depends on what happens in Italy - after all, Dollfuss would take the death of his main supporter very seriously.

So, either he gets a metric ton of reassurances and cracks down on Nazis with full support of whomever comes on top in Italy (Grandi is more likely, Balbo a reasonable contender, almost no chance of an outsider IMO) or the coup is rushed to completion to capitalize and/or Fascist leadership is paralyzed by internal strife and not able to intervene.

I think it's more likely that, unless the rushed attempt has luck on its side, he gets to live; if he does not, as per your original question, then Austria is done for - either immediately or in a short while. Pan-Germanism was still strong back then in Austria.

Now, onto your follow-up; the Stresa Front was against German revanchism and not in defense of Austrian independence (which would have been seen as a failed attempt at divided Germanies), and would have been greatly strengthened. No amount of (still believable) reassurances on South Tyrol would make Italy feel safe, PTSD on 'the rebirth of the reviled Austrian power' would run high, especially as such a Germany would likely be friendly with Yugoslavia - even if Hitler mantains a semblance of Austrian independence inder the local Nazis. I would say that the next step still is the Rhineland - too important and too easy as a grab. After that, however, I suspect Hitler would be forced to bargain more and be prevented from further gains; I see either Balbo or Grandi becoming staunch defenders of Central Europe status quo. There would be zero interest or need in the Ethiopia venture, too. When/if the Spanish Civil War erupts, there would be a ''strange bedfellows" situation. I think WW2 is butterflied away, but German-Soviet War with benevolent Stresa neutrality is almost certain to happen.

This last is an interesting question. A German-Soviet war implies the two sides are capable of reaching each other. What does the prolonged “Stresa front” consider to be under its protection. For there to be. German-Soviet fight it implies that London—Paris-Rome are indifferent to Poland becoming a battleground.

 

[Maponus]

One factor to consider if that without Mussolini Hitler will be much more hostile to Italy, since it would no longer be lead by his personal idol.

 

[Evil Crusader]

This last is an interesting question. A German-Soviet war implies the two sides are capable of reaching each other. What does the prolonged “Stresa front” consider to be under its protection. For there to be. German-Soviet fight it implies that London—Paris-Rome are indifferent to Poland becoming a battleground.

Which they are. I mean, London and Paris already showed it OTL, and I have little doubt Rome would act differently; even if there was politicall will to fight, Italy is almost powerless to intervene in any meaningful way (most of the shared border runs over the Alps and is bombing range is not already good enough).

 

[raharris1973]

as such a Germany would likely be friendly with Yugoslavia

One factor to consider if that without Mussolini Hitler will be much more hostile to Italy, since it would no longer be lead by his personal idol.

This brings up a question - Hitler's response, after a successful early Anschluss, to Italian hostility.

Hitler in OTL believed Italy was more useful as an ally than an enemy going back to Mein Kampf in the 1920s and that south Tyrol was a low priority. Also, he had respect for Mussolini.

Evil Crusader said that a Germany that annexed Austria would likely be friendly with Yugoslavia. I am not sure why, other than trade.

I would think that Hitler would initially see the next Italian leadership as the legit successor to Mussolini and would still keep his strategic view of the desirability of Italy as an ally, so would not do a tilt toward Yugoslavia. He'll repeat assurances on south Tyrol. However, if most potential succeeding leaderships within Italy will be as cold to all these overtures, and committed to working with France and Britain to maintain the status quo, as most respondents seem to be saying, will Hitler's patience run out after awhile, and he will do things like back Italy's rivals (aligning with Yugoslavia) and revive the claim to South Tyrol as a rhetorical issue to keep the Nazi party base, especially in Ostmark, happy? (even if not a higher priority than most other goals)

 

[Evil Crusader]

Evil Crusader said that a Germany that annexed Austria would likely be friendly with Yugoslavia. I am not sure why, other than trade.

If Anschluss Germany is an enemy of Italy, Yugoslavia is a natural, decently sized friend which really wants Istria back (and can provide Adriatic access) and likes economic aid without much risk of dragging Germany into random territorial quarrels.
Plus trade & diplomacy - no way Anschluss Germany doesn't try to make new friends in the Balkans, and most are wary enough of the Soviet Union or (unless very drastic changes by the new Italian leader) Italy to be receptive.

There doesn't even have to be anything more than that, not even claiming South Tyrol is necessary; after all, Italy is not really able to challenge Anschluss Germany as it encroaches. Without Mussolini doing something stupid like Ethiopia to set him against France, no way Italy drifts away from Stresa either.