Were there any concrete plans the Germans had for France if they won? Like would they take their colonies or annex more territory or even split France up? I know the Central Powers winning is a very common idea but we’re there any real life plans out there for France if the Germans won?
If the Central Powers win World War One, what did the Germans have in mind for France?
- Thread starter brunohusker
- Start date
No, no 'plans' worth the word.
There were many at times wild ideas floating around in publications by often far from sincere authors. Such engulfed various schmes to somehow incorporate mainly Belgium or some overreaching Africa.plans.
Some of the more sincere ideas (though still no plans, 'wishes' at best) came from the militaries regarding some (minor) border changes within the Vogese to make the german border better defensible.
Another thing was the iron-basin of Briey-Longwy its control was a quite wished topic. Though HOW such a control should be enacted ... even Stinnes wasn't for outright annexation due to legalistic 'problems'. He himself was over his several companies of his heavy industries conglomerate already at least shareholder via luxemburgish companies of quite some french mines as well.
Esp when you come across the so called 'Septemberprogram' - and you definitly will as it will be mentioned by the usual suspects on this board - pls keep in mind that this was only a compliation of many such floating around ideas without any 'binding' to whatever political power esp. not the german goverment.
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I imagine the answer is what kind of victory German can achieve. German victory will always be a bit of compromise since Britain can't be brought to the peace table by force.
Russia is also hard to force to the peace table (the OTL scenario would have a lot of butterflies if the Germans were winning).
So I am thinking a compromise peace.
A big question is there an armistice followed by a peace conference, or do final peace terms get worked out while the conflict is still on.
Russia is also hard to force to the peace table (the OTL scenario would have a lot of butterflies if the Germans were winning).
So I am thinking a compromise peace.
A big question is there an armistice followed by a peace conference, or do final peace terms get worked out while the conflict is still on.
Agreement in full.
If Germany marches to Paris say by early to mid 15 and pull an 1870 all over again. France would be humiliated and disarmed, renounced claims on Alsace and Lorraine are restated. Potentually minor border changes. Even thoughts of Belgium, but that would make the British pissed. Demand reparations for the war.
Later in the war same as above but more severe on the demilitarization to prevent France from getting uppity, potential occupation of France or parts there of for a period of time, more likely the latter as all of France is just too much to chew and doesn't serve German interest.
Now ww1 was not fought in a bubble. So to truly keep any war victory, the Germans need to get the British to the table and the Russians. If France falls and England looks Shakey, the US might just jump in potentially to support the British and Russians, though that could be doing things short of a actually declaring war
While there were no concrete plans for post war agreements. I can't see the Germans taking much of Belgium and France. Border regions at best, for better defense and to take French iron production. Luxembourg because it was still seen as just another German state. Arlon to sweeten the deal for Luxembourg and it's German speaking majority.
I rather see forced economic relations that Belgium and France must have with Germany. Restrictions on the French military and maybe a demilitarized border zone.
There were already majority SPD calls for a status quo peace for the western front.
I rather see forced economic relations that Belgium and France must have with Germany. Restrictions on the French military and maybe a demilitarized border zone.
There were already majority SPD calls for a status quo peace for the western front.
The Luxembourg expansion angle is interesting. Add Longwy to it as well, and Liege. Elevate the Duke to a King, incorporate it into Germany, maybe it makes it more palatable to the French speakers, and to the Luxembourgers.
Regardless colonially German Togo is expanded up to the Niger, the Germans overvalued access to rivers, Caprivi strip and all, and would probably take the Katanga copper mines from Belgian Congo. I think the colonial take would value quality over quantity, as colonies for Germany were a fiscal drain and involved entanglements with the British who would over value keeping the Germans from extra naval bases. Longwy is worth way more than any colony.
I could see the Germans making some hay about getting Tsingtao back from the Japanese, I think Tirpitz and the Kaiser would be all over showing some value over the value of the fleet. Might be the final entanglement of the war. If the Germans were to settle for the Japanese getting Marianas and Tsingtao, the Germans might want more French Pacific islands in exchange..
So ... : I now declare the bazaar open
for speculations of what might be 😁
A Grand-Duchy as Luxembourg already was - and still is - would suffice completly. There were already a numvber of such being members of the German Realm Luxembourg very likely would be invited to become a full member (not only part of the german custom zone it also already was).
"Simply" adding the iron region to Luxembourg ... as I said above would have - and did cause IOTL - some lagalistic comncerns. Even in OTL Bethmann-Hollweg painstakingly looked at NOT requisitioning french or belgian or luxemburgish industrial holds and interests but installed a trusteeship over them. ... not seldom much to the regret of german industrialists not already engaged in this region and the similar far-aways of the political Ludendorff biotope.
As @DUWANG has proposed: much more than arrondissement of Arlon or ... "Arelerland" what even ol' Paul Eyschen might have 'accepted' but nothing more) I wouldn't render sensible. All these further annexations of/from Belgium are part of the as well already mention (unrealistic) wish-dreams by the uneducated that floated around in germany.
In absolute numbers the statement of "colonies cost money and don't bring any" - ofc without looking at i.e. trade and sales volumes, buisness gains with processed produkts - isn't completly wrong. ... aside german Togo and german Samoa which wiggled around breakeven since about 1910.
However, let's even stay with these numbers as raised looking at the development.
This seems to me to be a rather 'promising' development esp if one acknowledges the often named (or complained ?) rather un(der)developed exploitation in processing and commercializing of the colonial holdings and their resources.
Contrary to todays perception by many and esp. and unfortunatly by politicians as well of poltics (at least until there came Xi and Putin ... though there are still enough of the bunch NOT acknoledging the raw will and wish for power only of the two) as anything but improving economical profiteering only at the time in questionabove mentioned topics were (still) more important than quick profits for a few.
for speculations of what might be 😁
... but ... who or what authority should enact such 'elevation' as there isn't any accepted as by the at least european nobility anymore.
A Grand-Duchy as Luxembourg already was - and still is - would suffice completly. There were already a numvber of such being members of the German Realm Luxembourg very likely would be invited to become a full member (not only part of the german custom zone it also already was).
"Simply" adding the iron region to Luxembourg ... as I said above would have - and did cause IOTL - some lagalistic comncerns. Even in OTL Bethmann-Hollweg painstakingly looked at NOT requisitioning french or belgian or luxemburgish industrial holds and interests but installed a trusteeship over them. ... not seldom much to the regret of german industrialists not already engaged in this region and the similar far-aways of the political Ludendorff biotope.
As @DUWANG has proposed: much more than arrondissement of Arlon or ... "Arelerland" what even ol' Paul Eyschen might have 'accepted' but nothing more) I wouldn't render sensible. All these further annexations of/from Belgium are part of the as well already mention (unrealistic) wish-dreams by the uneducated that floated around in germany.
... well ... this for political correctness again and again stated and due to unconnectedness to context IMHO myth esp. regarding its intent to 'demonize' colonial holding even in the political context of its time (but who asks for timely context if we're today prepresent the pinnacle of human ethical development all around giving us the right to judge morally over times gone ...) somewhat lacks in ... contextuality.
In absolute numbers the statement of "colonies cost money and don't bring any" - ofc without looking at i.e. trade and sales volumes, buisness gains with processed produkts - isn't completly wrong. ... aside german Togo and german Samoa which wiggled around breakeven since about 1910.
However, let's even stay with these numbers as raised looking at the development.
While in 1904 the expenditure of the german colonies overall stood at ~ 745 % of their income this relation steadily declined in 1913 to ~ 158 %.
Even the ONE TRUE sink hole of money - Kiautschou - starting in 1904 with expenditures or 13.5 million RM and an 'income' of only 0,91 million RM (former being only short of 15 times the income) this develeoped to16.8 million RM expenditure in 1913 by an income of 8,06 having declined to barly above 2 times the income.
This seems to me to be a rather 'promising' development esp if one acknowledges the often named (or complained ?) rather un(der)developed exploitation in processing and commercializing of the colonial holdings and their resources.
As I admitt that the Longwy region might be esp. faster to bring profit (if in the end ... over some time/few decades ... more ... might be challangeable) it would add much less regarding prestige and esp. global political 'weight'.
Contrary to todays perception by many and esp. and unfortunatly by politicians as well of poltics (at least until there came Xi and Putin ... though there are still enough of the bunch NOT acknoledging the raw will and wish for power only of the two) as anything but improving economical profiteering only at the time in questionabove mentioned topics were (still) more important than quick profits for a few.
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I'd say: not much. It would demand some reparations from France like in 1870, and probably demand some of France's holdings in East Asia as a compensation of having lost Tshingtau/Quindao to the Japanese, but just the knowledge that they beat France twice within 50 years would be more than enough.
Was Germany really intrested about Asian holdings? And regarding colonial possession it is lucky if it gets its African colonies back and even luckier if it can take from France anything.
Most likely reparations, more of Alsace-Lorraine (Belfort, Briey-Longwy, some more of the Vosges mountains). They'd also want French overseas colonies, but because of the strength of the Royal Navy, they'd have to play their diplomatic cards right with Britain if they didn't want to lose those colonies immediately after France ceded them.
Plus demilitarization of the French border forts and no Maginot line.
Also convert Alsace-Lorraine to one or two provinces and give them local self-government and representation in the Reichstag and Bundesrat. Prussia won't like it but too bad.
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... given a german victory I wonder why and how and by whom the german goverment should be forced to do so with Alsace-Lorraine. Esp. as it as a whole on its way to become a fully fledged member of the confederation the German Realm actually was it already had 3 seats and votes within the Bundesrat since 1911.
However, Asace-Lorraine being ... an 'RealmsLand' (and NOT a prussian holding, the prussian king 'ruled over it in his capacity as Kaiser only and not as prussian king) actually was after the beginning of the war object of siomewhat obscure divinonal plans by esp. the bavarian king and some other monarchs to 'compensate' them - Bavaria or Badena or Württembergia - for alleged prussian gains.
... quite a cabale with not least comedian potential though Bethmann-Hollweg had to pay the one or other lip-service to them to keep them with such nonsense out of public.
The infamous September Program is indeed your best reference here since it is a list of possible peace negotation demands compiled by some government official when it still looked like the war might be over quickly. That doesn't mean every single demand would have been pressed, but it shows which options were contemplated.
The opposite, El was already elevate to a full fledge state pre war,so that's irrelevant