implausible but still interesting

[Paul V McNutt]

After the invasion of Ethiopia, the US, UK and France place an oil embargo on Italy. The British also ban the Italian military from using the Suez Canal. The invasion is unsuccessful and Mussolini is overthrown. I assume the leaders of the coup are Fascists who would be sympathetic to Hitler, so World War II does not change.

 

[Gudestein]

Well, industry wise we can assume close collaboration between Italy and Germany. Including developing the transport infrastructure to transport coal to Italy. Germany and Italy forms a more cohesive alliance, synthetic fossil fuel plants are made in Italy under licenses. With these two hostile blocks, its a question what happens in the Balkans. If they choose axis we have a reasonably strong block that just needs to make more oil.
Expect a big showdown if SCW starts out as OTL.

 

[Anarch King of Dipsodes]

I assume the leaders of the coup are Fascists who would be sympathetic to Hitler,

Why? The post-Mussolini regime would probably include some Fascists, but it would want to distance itself from Mussolini's folly, and the fiasco would sour most Italians on military adventurism.

so World War II does not change.

Well, to start with, the east African campaign is much shorter. That's if Italy keeps Somaliland and Eritrea.

Italy is more likely to remain neutral. Though it is also more likely that Italy declares war in 1939.